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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

bobinfla

S-Vin 4086 Rdstr-Vin 0019
Supporting Member
Jul 9, 2012
363
1,561
Land O'Lakes
I used to dream about making a million dollars from TSLA.

Then I dreamed about making a million dollars in a single day.

I never in my wildest dreams contemplated making a million dollars in a half hour.

TSLA life is good! Congrats to everyone who has hung on to make it to tonight!
 

Prunesquallor

His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
Supporting Member
Dec 19, 2018
3,775
43,452
Houston/Galveston
I think they can start buying tomorrow during market hours. Or are you saying they cannot until S&P decides if this will be done in two tranches instead of one? I don’t understand why S&P would keep it ambiguous, surely they should realize the squeeze potential here.
The thinking is that if they are true index fund, they can’t buy funds until they are IN the index (after the first phase).
 

mejojo

Active Member
Supporting Member
Aug 4, 2014
1,013
2,617
Long Beach, CA
I used to dream about making a million dollars from TSLA.

Then I dreamed about making a million dollars in a single day.

I never in my wildest dreams contemplated making a million dollars in a half hour.

TSLA life is good! Congrats to everyone who has hung on to make it to tonight!

Didn't you have to lose a bunch to make this bunch?
 

pz1975

Active Member
Supporting Member
Aug 30, 2013
1,650
10,534
Langley, BC, Canada
Note that while IV will increase based on the expected SP jump tomorrow, it will still take a number of days to get up to what it will eventually get too (because the SP will no longer be stagnating). This is key for loading up for the possible squeeze as there will be a disconnect between the actual IV and the eventual IV until it does catch up. This will allow call options to be purchased cheaper than they will eventually be (irrespective of the stock price of course).

I used this same disconnect to my advantage back in January as TSLA left its 5-year range and began climbing into the 400s/500s - the IV took 1-2 weeks to really start to climb. I loaded up on way OTM calls for super-cheap and ended up with a net 40-bagger on hundreds of calls.

Long story short: I am going to buy a sh*tload of way OTM calls for December and January tomorrow morning before the IV starts to really climb high (likely will get to 100-120 again in the next couple weeks).
 

MP3Mike

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2016
17,235
41,819
Oregon
I think they can start buying tomorrow during market hours. Or are you saying they cannot until S&P decides if this will be done in two tranches instead of one? I don’t understand why S&P would keep it ambiguous, surely they should realize the squeeze potential here.

Actual S&P500 funds can normally only buy in the ~3 days prior to and after the inclusion date. So with inclusion being 12/21 they could start buying 12/16 and have to finish by EOD 12/24. If they decide to do two tranches there would be an additional buying period of 12/9-12/17. So they would overlap making the buying period 12/9-12/24, though half would have to be bought in the first part of the period and half in the later portion of the period. (Or they could buy it all on 12/16-12/17 and be done.)

At least that is my understanding of how it all works.
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
10,951
150,378
Canada
S&P estimates that $51 billion of TSLA will be bought by Index fund holders. At $408.09 per share, that's about 125M shares of TSLA that need buying.

The total MAX. float is about 770M shares (counting even those that wouldn't sell, but technically COULD sell).

125/770 ~ 16% of TSLA's float will be up for grabs between now and Dec 21st. That's gonna leave a mark... :p

Merry Christmas!
 

Nocturnal

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Aug 23, 2018
7,051
40,392
Deepening Crisis!
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Bought my second call last week. A 11/20. It has lost most of its value this morning. So these things don’t trade after hours? Assuming a 430 strike will be about $3500?
Yes you will be very happy tomorrow.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
8,057
35,421
Philadelphia, PA
Poll/Contest: What do you this TSLA will close at tomorrow (not open)?
My guess ==> $455.50

Yours?
I think we close right about where we are now $462ish, maybe $10 less. Having popped to $480 or so mid-morning.

Gonna be a ugly week for the shorts I guess. Happy Thanksgiving?
 

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