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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I wonder if a side effect of being added to S&P is that some people who are aware of Tesla but have heard of a lot of the FUD and sitting on the sidelines as a result decide to jump in and buy TSLA and/or a Tesla.
This! All other websites are working for me, but maybe it is on my end somehow? Update: It was on my end, sorry, but I do think tesla.com will be a bit busier today!
 
Add to that the Jim Chanos, Stephanie Link, Tim Seymour, Scott Wapner, Linette Lopez, Lora Kolodny, Joe "I dunno" Kernen types who now all have to explain why such a terrible company/cult stock etc. is being added to the S&P500 and will be bought by thousands of pension funds.

Finally I have a reason to tune into Squawk Box and watch Joe "I dunno" Kernen squirm.

Gordon probably not hyperventilating. He gets money every time he goes on TV. He drew the short straw and plays this character with the ultra-low price target and opinion of the stock just to play interference for the true bears who don't want to go on TV.

Gordon on = SP up
 
From now through the end of the year, it's my understanding that dozens of millions of shares must be accumulated by institutions. That should be some sustained horribleness for those short TSLA. Oh yeah....they also need to cover before going bankrupt, that might have an impact. Oh yeah.....the MM's selling all these options contracts in low IV environment will now need to hedge like crazy, that may have an impact too!

All these people asked for this. I feel no remorse.

This is worth re-posting. Thanks TalkingMule for perfectly capturing my exact feelings! :)
 
S&P estimates that $51 billion of TSLA will be bought by Index fund holders. At $408.09 per share, that's about 125M shares of TSLA that need buying.

The total MAX. float is about 770M shares (counting even those that wouldn't sell, but technically COULD sell).

125/770 ~ 16% of TSLA's float will be up for grabs between now and Dec 21st. That's gonna leave a mark... :p

Merry Christmas!

a perfectly timed addition to avoid any capital gains increases under the next administration. It must have been a real conundrum for the S&P500 secret society - “hmmm, we sure make a lot of money being able to manipulate TSLA because it isn’t in the S&P500 yet, and that opportunity is diminished once we add it, but if we add it in 2020 we likely won’t pay as much capital gains on the squeeze under Trump as we will under Biden. How bout we keep screwing with TSLA investors till the very end of 2020 AND we add TSLA before Biden is in office “.
Looks like they got both of those Xmas wishes to come true ........
 
What I do not understand is why the S&P has created such a long gap between announcement and inclusion date ?
Do they want to screw over all their funds ? Give 4 weeks to the speculators to run up the price before the funds can buy ?

IMO it’s quite the opposite. I think they are giving time for the stock price to settle down and also maybe allows funds to add gradually?
 
What I do not understand is why the S&P has created such a long gap between announcement and inclusion date ?
Do they want to screw over all their funds ? Give 4 weeks to the speculators to run up the price before the funds can buy ?

Because the amount of money is so much larger than usual, they estimate ~$51 billion of TSLA stock, they are asking for advice on how to complete it. That takes extra time to gather, review, make a decision, and then share it with everyone.
 
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After-hrs volume already 7.8m shares (with still 50 min trading remaining).

This is the highest % of A/hrs Vol to Main session Vol in my Tesla dataset: > 41% .

2nd place A/hrs was Apr 29, 2020 at 28.5% (the keen amongst you will recall that was the day Elon was reopening Tesla's Fremont factory w/o 'say so' from Alemeda County.

Gotta admit, 2020 has got moves... :p

Cheers!
 
Actual S&P500 funds can normally only buy in the ~3 days prior to and after the inclusion date. So with inclusion being 12/21 they could start buying 12/16 and have to finish by EOD 12/24. If they decide to do two tranches there would be an additional buying period of 12/9-12/17. So they would overlap making the buying period 12/9-12/24, though half would have to be bought in the first part of the period and half in the later portion of the period. (Or they could buy it all on 12/16-12/17 and be done.)

At least that is my understanding of how it all works.
Or...."I know a guy...." hint hint o_Oo_Oo_O
 
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The most interesting take from Rob Maurer is that Teslas announcement is 35 days before inclusion. The average is six days and previous max is ten days, over the last four years at least. This inclusion is different in so many ways.

As a total novice when it comes to how funds operate I know I'm gonna spend some time tomorrow trying to find my earliest suggestion that S&P might want to do this in installments. Long before anyone else here at least. I'm right so seldom I'll have to celebrate that.
 
So anyone know exactly what the weighting of TSLA will be in the index?

$4.6 Trillion was the amount mentioned in that CNBC clip of S&P500 funds directly tracking the index (these will have to buy TSLA) out of $11 Trillion+ which are "benchmarked" to the index (an unknown amount of these funds might buy more TSLA).

No, there is just currently an estimate from: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/g...iononimplementationoftslaaddition11-16-20.pdf

TSLA SP500.png


Of course it has already gone up ~13%, so that would be ~$58B now.