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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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MM walking down the SP into open.. how will today turn out? :)

With Adams upgrade, and one day clsoer to S&P500 - they might have a hard time holding it down for long.

Appreciate any skeptics out there, who think we will go lower in the near/medium term. I just can t see it? But then, I have been wrong a lot! (way to bullish)

Stock Option Max Pain
Max Pain for TSLA was around $410 before the S&P data came out.

I would expect the MMs to try their hardest to work the price down by Friday to minimize their losses. Given how quickly volume trailed off yesterday, they might have a decent shot at doing that.

Beginning next week, who knows. Perhaps we see the walk up we are all expecting/hoping for start.
 
@KarenRei and @Fact Checking are having a friendly debate on orbital mechanics, and I and my tiny brain are here for it.
https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1328835486077554690?s=21

Karen is mostly correct. Both energy wise and time wise it is easier to get to most asteroids most of the time from the Earth than from Mars.

This is rather counter-intuitive as the Mars orbit is closer to the asteroid orbits. The same thing applies to Near Earth Objects (NEOs), they are called NEOs because their orbits cause them to come near to the Earth occasionally (near is relative and the vast majority will not come closer than the moon). However it is hard to get to most of them most of the time, either taking lots of time or lots of energy.

The main advantage that Mars has is lower gravity making Single Stage to Orbit (SSTO) possible. Because propellant will be much cheaper on Earth for the foreseeable future and the main costs are space ship amortization and payload (which will be cheaper when sourced from the Earth for the foreseeable future) it is very hard to make an economic case for Mars in the exploration or settlement of the main asteroid belt.
 
Stock Option Max Pain
Max Pain for TSLA was around $410 before the S&P data came out.

I would expect the MMs to try their hardest to work the price down by Friday to minimize their losses. Given how quickly volume trailed off yesterday, they might have a decent shot at doing that.

Beginning next week, who knows. Perhaps we see the walk up we are all expecting/hoping for start.

My hope is, they give up on this one. S&P500 news is so big, I would think they cant hope to get it down much.. but never know.
 
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I've spent the last 20 years following Buffett/Munger closely. Tesla isn't the kind of company BRK invests in. They base their investments on four principles:

- Do I understand the business?
Buffett does not understand TSLA
- Does the company have a durable competitive advantage?
Buffett will not give TSLA credit for things they are going to do in the future ... like FSD. He will appreciate the brand we have, So the answer is yes and no.
- Does he like the people?
Buffett/Munger have had a public spat going on with EM for a while now. EM has insulted Gates who is one of WEB's closest friends. I think they have issues with how EM conducts himself. So, the answer is no.
- Do they like the price?
Buffett won't like the price until TSLA's PE comes down to the 15 range. He wants past or current earnings to support a valuation ... not the hope of future earnings based on tech that is not mature.

For those who will look at BRK's investment in Apple and deduce that WEB may now be open to an investment in TSLA ... you are making a mistake. Apple has strong earnings that can be reasonably estimated well into the future. We all hope (and expect) TSLA to be wildly profitable in the future but we are not there yet.

So while (as a BRK shareholder) I would love for Buffett to have bought TSLA stock I think it is very unlikely. There is a small possibility though that one of Buffett's lieutenants (Todd and Ted) bought a minor position in TSLA. They are "value" investors as well but have free reign to make their own decisions.
 
I've spent the last 20 years following Buffett/Munger closely. Tesla isn't the kind of company BRK invests in. They base their investments on four principles:

- Do I understand the business?
Buffett does not understand TSLA
- Does the company have a durable competitive advantage?
Buffett will not give TSLA credit for things they are going to do in the future ... like FSD. He will appreciate the brand we have, So the answer is yes and no.
- Does he like the people?
Buffett/Munger have had a public spat going on with EM for a while now. EM has insulted Gates who is one of WEB's closest friends. I think they have issues with how EM conducts himself. So, the answer is no.
- Do they like the price?
Buffett won't like the price until TSLA's PE comes down to the 15 range. He wants past or current earnings to support a valuation ... not the hope of future earnings based on tech that is not mature.

For those who will look at BRK's investment in Apple and deduce that WEB may now be open to an investment in TSLA ... you are making a mistake. Apple has strong earnings that can be reasonably estimated well into the future. We all hope (and expect) TSLA to be wildly profitable in the future but we are not there yet.

So while (as a BRK shareholder) I would love for Buffett to have bought TSLA stock I think it is very unlikely. There is a small possibility though that one of Buffett's lieutenants (Todd and Ted) bought a minor position in TSLA. They are "value" investors as well but have free reign to make their own decisions.

Replace Tesla with Apple in the above - off the top of my head I remember the old boys didn't want to invest in Apple but let one of their younger colleagues go for it. Worked out nicely.

Perhaps more of the same?

Also they like good execution, one of their aims is to free managers/owners (of smaller companies) of some of the finance hassles, instead just setting a rate of return for capital and keeping the managers in place.

Edit - I missed your Apple-specific point. was this true at the point WEB first invested? Could the old boys be adapting?
 
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I've spent the last 20 years following Buffett/Munger closely. Tesla isn't the kind of company BRK invests in. They base their investments on four principles:

- Do I understand the business?
Buffett does not understand TSLA
- Does the company have a durable competitive advantage?
Buffett will not give TSLA credit for things they are going to do in the future ... like FSD. He will appreciate the brand we have, So the answer is yes and no.
- Does he like the people?
Buffett/Munger have had a public spat going on with EM for a while now. EM has insulted Gates who is one of WEB's closest friends. I think they have issues with how EM conducts himself. So, the answer is no.
- Do they like the price?
Buffett won't like the price until TSLA's PE comes down to the 15 range. He wants past or current earnings to support a valuation ... not the hope of future earnings based on tech that is not mature.

For those who will look at BRK's investment in Apple and deduce that WEB may now be open to an investment in TSLA ... you are making a mistake. Apple has strong earnings that can be reasonably estimated well into the future. We all hope (and expect) TSLA to be wildly profitable in the future but we are not there yet.

So while (as a BRK shareholder) I would love for Buffett to have bought TSLA stock I think it is very unlikely. There is a small possibility though that one of Buffett's lieutenants (Todd and Ted) bought a minor position in TSLA. They are "value" investors as well but have free reign to make their own decisions.

I disagree with your thesis, but thank you for putting it out there in so many words.

We will see anyway , won’t we? ;)
 
Regarding Berkshire, with TSLA going into the S&P next month, it makes sense that they received special permission to keep this quiet so the stock price doesn't go up too much before the inclusion date. Can anyone think of another company where it would make sense to keep things under wraps?

Dunno man.

11bil on a 400 bil company doesn't look material to me.
The hopeful me want this to be true though.
 
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Stock Option Max Pain
Max Pain for TSLA was around $410 before the S&P data came out.

I would expect the MMs to try their hardest to work the price down by Friday to minimize their losses. Given how quickly volume trailed off yesterday, they might have a decent shot at doing that.

Beginning next week, who knows. Perhaps we see the walk up we are all expecting/hoping for start.


Looks like 450 is the wall "they" really want to stay under... I do have a few sold CCs I'm probably going to want to roll up a little bit before Friday... I'm ok with them being called they're not core shares, but rolling up nearer the actual Friday close nets me more profit on the sale than leaving them alone would... (and obviously more the higher it goes) trick is 440, 445, or 450...
 
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Looks like 450 is the wall "they" really want to stay under... I do have a few sold CCs I'm probably going to want to roll up a little bit before Friday... I'm ok with them being called they're not core shares, but rolling up nearer the actual Friday close nets me more profit on the sale than leaving them alone would... (and obviously more the higher it goes) trick is 440, 445, or 450...

Volume this AM still not looking that great. I guess the big boys are still in wait-n-see mode.
 
Regarding Berkshire, with TSLA going into the S&P next month, it makes sense that they received special permission to keep this quiet so the stock price doesn't go up too much before the inclusion date. Can anyone think of another company where it would make sense to keep things under wraps?

GLJ research ;););););)