Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
8,666
107,433
Canada
I’m looking forward to a thorough analysis by Rob Maurer of what to expect in the coming 25 trading days. His insights have been very helpful in the past.

I hope he can shed some light on how much demand for shares we can expect.

I personally think we may see up to 8 million shares on average per trading day being taken out of the market until 21 December: 5 million for the S&P 500 index funds, 1-2 million for funds shadowing these index funds, 1 million for shorts covering (I believe the number of 46 million shares shorted can halve if we go to 600+), and 0,5-1 million for MMs covering for call buying by private investors.

Lol, why wait for Rob Maurer? You shed more light on the next 5 weeks in 66 words than the Sun sheds photons. :p

BTW, Nominated for "Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit".

Thank-you
 
Jun 1, 2018
975
4,269
Canada
Lol, even the sneaky 1 dollar dips at the top of the hour are being met with ferocious buying now... :D

Here's something else thats CRITICAL for MMs and would-be Hedgies: Large Wall St. Index Funds are all "Owners of Record" for the shares they hold.

Let me repeat that: "Owner's of Record" means Tesla has the list of names and amnt of TSLA holdings of each Index Fund.

There will be NO OPPORTUNITY for internal fraud like when a MM/Broker short sells a share of TSLA to their captive "Benefical Owners" ie: their Customers.

This is HUGE.

Cheers!

P.S. $487.17 on 54M shares of TSLA (up over 10%)

Thanks for this @Artful Dodger. Wheels turning.

This post calls for the creation of a "VERY informative" button on TMC.
 

MABMAB

Member
Jun 19, 2019
839
3,088
Mulligan's Valley
Huge sell order at $490 (over 50,000 shares) was put in right before TSLA crossed $490 for the first time today. TSLA sliced right through this order, but it was brought down below $490 for a bit. However, unlike recent low volume days, the capping attempts are being bought without hesitation. Nice to see volume come back in. The next few weeks should be very, very interesting.

LOL sell orders, there are NONE
 

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Nov 15, 2013
9,085
69,218
At home
I think this is hedge funds and MMs front running the actual buying needed by the funds. While there is no way to know for sure it is clear that the S&P committee thought they were smart in announcing a delayed inclusion date but little do they understand the dynamics of TSLA. They move at a snail's pace just like our legacy carmakers.

I'm not a selling a single share is probably the sentiment most of the folks on this forum have. I might sell some in my 401k if the SP spikes to 600$ or more but mostly just having fun watching the SP do it's thing.

If I were an MM then I'd be delta-hedging every call up to the top strike from now until the end of the year, so I reckon this is part of the climb and I don't think they'll be finished too soon either as folks will be loading on calls.
 

[email protected]

Teslanaire Extraordinaire
Feb 25, 2019
62
913
New Jersey
I am confused about the apparent BRK 13F release exemption. “We don’t want to disclose the name of a purchased company because it would cause the stock to rise”.

Given that disclosure of BRK taking a stake in TSLA would likely cause a big pop in TSLA share price, it is possible that Buffet concluded (and was able to convince the SEC) that it would be preferable for this pop to occur after S&P inclusion rather than before, such that millions of index fund investors and pension fund investors would not be deprived of the benefits of the pop.

This explanation makes sense as the SEC would be hard pressed to agree to any disclosure exceptions that would mostly benefit BRK. A decision that benefits millions of retail investors, on the other hand, is difficult to argue against.

Weak point in this argument is that it presumes the "Shortseller Enrichment Commission" would actually follow their mission and look out for the interest of small investors. (But stranger things have happened.)
 

Hock1

Member
Jan 21, 2017
677
6,334
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Huge sell order at $490 (over 50,000 shares) was put in right before TSLA crossed $490 for the first time today. TSLA sliced right through this order, but it was brought down below $490 for a bit. However, unlike recent low volume days, the capping attempts are being bought without hesitation. Nice to see volume come back in. The next few weeks should be very, very interesting.
Heck, the day is not over yet!
Elon disrupts another one: the stock index fund industry.
 

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Nov 15, 2013
9,085
69,218
At home
Definitely not the American way... we may be desperate, but we definitely ain't quiet!

I thought it was a Pink Floyd reference, hence my response, from Time - DSotM:

Every year is getting shorter never seem to find the time.
Plans that either come to naught or half a page of scribbled lines
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way
The time is gone, the song is over,
Thought I'd something more to say.
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
8,666
107,433
Canada
As we approach a ATH. Does anybody remember the after-hours ATH from end of August? I believe we briefly touched $530, then a big Sep drop. Official ATH is $502 but wasn't sure how to google for distant after hours charts.
Yes, the ATH SP was $538.75 during pre-Market trading on Tue, Sep 1st, 2020 at about 7:01 am:

TSLA.2020-09-01.07-01.png

The ATH Closing SP occured on the previous day Aug 31, 2020 at $498.32 and that record is in play today:

sc.TSLA.50-DayChart.2020-08-31.20-00.png

Cheers!
 

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Nov 15, 2013
9,085
69,218
At home
I was furloughed May of this year. Feels good not having to deal with the distraction of having a job.

Also gotta say that staying up late, sleeping well into the morning and answering to no one is great too.

So no wife then...?

But ain't you the sucker, I have a really well-paid job, am stuck at home and watch the ticker all day too!

(but I do work as well...)
 

enzo

Member
Sep 4, 2016
106
405
USA
The effective free float is shrinking as FOMO rises. There will not be enough pie for indexers. Will Tesla gracefully offer to bake some more? As shareholders, how would you feel about this?
Betrayed? (Let S&P suffer!)
Benevolent? (Shares are a renewable resource!)
What could Tesla do with an extra $20-40 billion?
Lower prices so much that other car, solar, & battery companies have no hope of competing?
Build the terafactory of its dreams?
Buy out competitors?
Expand into adjacent industries?
Stage a mission to Mars?
 

c041v

Supporting Member
Jan 7, 2013
692
2,215
Vancouver, BC

Tesla Austin watchers, what do you make of the image in the video at 13:22?

They may be going to preassemble a section of roof on the ground, and lift it in to place, perhaps with 2 or 4 cranes.

If this wild speculation turns out to be true, I hope someone captures footage of this happening.

I've somehow gotten some work done today, and have a few free minutes, so let me take a stab;

The items pictured at 13:22 are a series of girder trusses that have yet to receive bridging (for different girder applications, these are sometimes referred to as diaphragms). This open-web steel trusses design is actually incredibly unsexy when it comes to form, but is about as efficient as you can get in terms of function. Basically every commercial application uses some for of this type of trusses system to enclose large, open spaces. I guess I'm the only one that looks up in grocery stores, warehouses, or any other big box store to see what roofing design they used?

The girder trusses are exceptionally light and with the lower parallel chord, easy to install and provide a nice, flat roof. They are also very much an "off the shelf product". The Engineer simply needs to know the dead load of whatever is going on the roof + live load for the region (snowy regions can really impact this), the span and done. Pick from a catalogue. They are also quite cost effective given the standardization. Nothing special, really. Should be noted that this design is normally for the top floor, or for single story buildings. The open web design cannot support heavy loads, such as equipment or anything really beyond a roof above.

They yellow crawler crane is likely barely above into double digits in terms of the rated lift capacity for that entire assembly, even at a decent distance. Those are BIG crawler cranes, looks to be a Liebherr LR 1350 which is rated for 330 MT at a very short lifting distance. (I was poking around the Bigge Crane website, but hard to tell from the drone distance exactly which unit it is) Once the bridging is in, the crane will lift he entire assembly into place and repeat. It's much easier to bolt up something like this at ground level vs. having Ironworkers crawl all over these in the air, safer too. 07:45 shows a more complete version of this assembly.

The somewhat more interesting girders are around the 10:45 mark, which are full depth, closed web. very robust and this likely means there's another floor coming above, which is basically confirmed by the open connection plates atop the columns. You can also see they have landed the bundles of Q decking which will form the basis of the floor. Q decking is another standard warehouse product, which is basically a corrugated metal sheet that receives a concrete overlay. Not that attract, but hyper efficient engineering-wise, as it is the bottom half of what would otherwise need to be formed. (Condominiums do not use Q decking, but floor slabs, which makes their construction much slower, but it's an Apples/Oranges thing in terms of the loading applications)

Looks as though there are a lot of footings underway and that they finally have a good production line for these. I don't expect those to take much longer and they are far enough ahead of the steel that things will really start to take shape soon. 30-Dec-20 is still very ambitious, but this part goes very quickly as it is simply assembly of columns and beams. We also saw this happen quickly in Reno, Shanghai, and Berlin

10:27 shows the concrete columns that we have seen at Berlin. These units are obviously cast off site. Austin seems to be a bit of a hybrid in terms of the factory design. I think Reno was 100% steel, as was Shanghai, whereas Berlin was very concrete heavy, with Austin being a bit of both. A few things to comment on here;

- Chinese typically have the best pricing on steel. It can be a bit of a pain in terms of getting all the right paperwork for various uses in North America, but I have used a lot of Chinese steel over the years.
- Looks like the column design is identical, so I would wager the now-departed Mr. Gigafactory worked hard to develop a template for these gigafactories that takes into account the intended production lines/equipment and looks at the cost of local materials to make a determination if it will be concrete or steel.
- The concrete vs. steel debate is basically governed by local availability and shipping cost. It's normally a specialized case for an Engineer to go against the logical choice, usually because the lower cost option can't provided the needed geometry or loading requirements. My line of work is more on the Civil-side, but I've done lots of small bridges and the steel vs. concrete debate is always ongoing and normally a function of the market rate for a kg/lb of steel. Concrete normally wins as it is easy to make here in Canada.

Big concrete pour going on at 10:54. No idea what this thing is, but it will be large, and contained, whatever it is. I've not seen large walls like this in the past, might be the Gigapress or something like that. This area will be filled in around the walls once they are done, but this does look to be unique from the other factories.

There's also a weird-shaped excavation at 09:55 I can't quite figure out. It has been very precisely cut, which is unusual.

Overall, glad to see they are running 24 hours shifts with this. I suspect they had a lot of nagging problem related to subgrade strength which is why you see the Geopier/Stone Column excavators still on site drilling away. Hoping it doesn't rain much down there in the winter months, as the whole site could be a real mess again if it does.
 
Last edited:

⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️

Active Member
Jul 15, 2016
2,803
4,622
Pacific Northwest
AAAAnnnd 16 minutes later we're at $8.25

If you guys wanna sign up for my investing class, let me know.
Now it's at $927. I signed up for your class a while back without your permission. So if it goes up to the strike price of $500 before Friday I'm not getting the $2,500 back that I paid for it, am I. I should probably sell right now and cut my losses. I'm learning a lot in your class. Mainly not to buy options before I know what I'm doing. And if I do buy any, don't buy more than one.
 

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top