Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggr]

Mod: reminder that we frown on posting stuff that might be considered derogatory about current or ex-members, and in particular Neroden discussion has been banned for literally years. 9 posts deleted. --ggr

 

[EV forever]

Is TT007 the only one that pulled off the Jack trade, selling all common and converting to calls? They even gave TWO days with almost no price appreciation and almost $0 for time to pull it off. Hats off if you did. WWJD.

Does 15% count?
Except, I did this on Friday with no expectation of S&P500 inclusion. Figured with the super low IV, I was willing to gamble with a portion of my long term HODL shares. Plus honestly, I was bored with the flat price, so was looking for some excitement.

Sold 15% at 408 on Friday, used about half the cash buying LEAPS on the same day. Spent the rest yesterday buying up Jan and March 2021 calls at almost double of the premium on Friday. I will take being lucky over being smart any day!

 

[Drumheller]

Anyone know what’s causing macros to fall off a cliff EOD?

Maybe funds selling other stock to have more cash to buy tsla?




I don't actually know

 

[traxila]

Not only did I go through all that but I went through years of the vicious lies that shorts were putting out all day long.

It was distressing but I held everything and I'm still holding all my original shares and more.

I will not sell I am going to give my shares to my children when I die.

I made the commitment to myself the day I started buying and I'm sticking to it.

The hardest part of all of this is pretending to my children that I only have a couple of hundred shares.

I give them ranges. Like the politicians do.

For example, my current TSLA hodlings range from ten thousand to fifty million.

 

[StealthP3D]

I know I ditched all my covered calls yesterday and bought a bunch of calls on top of my already long position in my trading account yesterday.

I would probably would have sold a lot of covered calls if I knew I could just "ditch" them when I didn't want 'em any more.

I always thought I would of had to buy them back for more!

/s

 

[Prunesquallor]

Be careful. TT007 has been wrong so much he is basically a broken clock. I know I'm not alone when I say I lost a lot of money listening to him on this forum before he was chased away.

He went “super-long"

 

[JustSaying]

What's a "financial advisor"?

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

What a disappointment Tesla is. Up only 10%. The only other stock I own is up 19%.

Too bad that one is 0.5% of my capital.

 

[wipster]

You can get the original Parsons quad mix now on DVD-A/Blu-ray, still sounds great. The 5.1 mix is excellent too.

Thanks, didn't know you could get the Parsons mix, I will check it out! I have the 5.1 on SACD, but would love to hear the original quad mix again...

 

[computerchuck]

I'm so happy today

 

[traxila]

I would probably would have sold a lot of covered calls if I knew I could just "ditch" them when I didn't want 'em any more.

I always thought I would of had to buy them back for more!

/s

Stealth, you know the deal better than me.

I sold Jan 21 covered calls on the insane run pre battery day. The IVs were ridiculous. Had strike prices all the way to 740. I was at peace that the shares I had covered could be called away at those prices.

I was up 90% plus on them. Had closed some out as the reward had become meaningless. Yesterday they spiked at the morning so that my returns were reduced into the 80% range. Closed them all.

I am waiting to do the same when the prices and IV reach a point where I am comfortable with my shares (some of them) being called away.

All the best!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Anyone know what’s causing macros to fall off a cliff EOD?

Maybe?

White House chief of staff ‘can’t guarantee’ U.S. government will avert December shutdown

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/11/18/white-house-congress-shutdown-december/

 

[Robocop]

All I want is a new ATH every day straight until Dec 21. Is that too much to ask?

 

[kanweg]

I give them ranges. Like the politicians do.

For example, my current TSLA hodlings range from ten thousand to fifty million.

Well played, if you’re that analyst who was wrong despite giving a broad range.

 

[JustMe]

All I want is a new ATH every day straight until Dec 21. Is that too much to ask?

Robocop for President!

 

[Tslynk67]

Stealth, you know the deal better than me.

I sold Jan 21 covered calls on the insane run pre battery day. The IVs were ridiculous. Had strike prices all the way to 740. I was at peace that the shares I had covered could be called away at those prices.

I was up 90% plus on them. Had closed some out as the reward had become meaningless. Yesterday they spiked at the morning so that my returns were reduced into the 80% range. Closed them all.

I am waiting to do the same when the prices and IV reach a point where I am comfortable with my shares (some of them) being called away.

All the best!

Same for me, I'm in for selling some $700-$800 strikes once the IV gets there.

OK @wipster, time for Tubbiebyebyes here, man the fort will you?

 

[Causalien]

He went “super-long"

View attachment 609608

I strongly suggest that before ppl decide to coattail someone. Verify someone's trade.

Verify the date. Think. And if you can find their position size and $$$ amount. Verify the trade on the ticker.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

I've been trying to game theory what might happen over the next five weeks. Not easy as there are many actors.

Until the index tracker funds are allowed to buy I think it is in no-ones interest to sell (except day traders, high frequency trading and other algos).

The key to this is realizing that a squeeze is happening and that there is guaranteed buying when the index trackers are finally allowed in. So there is no incentive to sell now, no matter what the price the index trackers will be forced to pay.

Short sellers will be forced to cover. That is about 1 million shares on average, but probably concentrated in the first few days. Maybe half the shares shorted will cover, the rest will be part of various hedging strategies, it is possible that most of those cover as well as the hedging strategy becomes mute.

Index benchmark funds, probably have few Tesla shares to sell, but have a large incentive to buy. Regardless of whether they aim to be above, below or equal weight in Tesla in the long term, in the short term they can ride the rise and beat the index. On average they will probably end up slightly under-weight, but that is still a lot of shares they need to buy and hold. Some might decide to wait, and only buy after index inclusion and the share price has settled down, this avoids potential losses but also misses the chance to beat the index. If they all bought to hit equal weight by 21st December that would be about 10 million shares a day, it will be lower than that, perhaps 3-5 million shares a day.

Some index tracker funds will have rules allowing them to buy early, or other mechanisms allowing them to acquire shares, perhaps 0,1 million shares a day at present rising to 1-2 million just before the main index tracker purchase period.

Traders, hedge funds, etc. will probably do a similar analysis to this and so will want to buy and hold until the index trackers start buying. They will try and time the top of the squeeze, which could lead to violent swings.

There could be FOMO among retail and some institutional investors, hard to predict how much, many I think lost out over the summer and will be reluctant to gamble on S&P inclusion again.

Call buying (private and institutional investors) will have to be delta hedged by the MMs, maybe to the tune of 1 million shares.

If there are so many shares being taken out of the immediate float each day and no significant selling, it would normally be up to the MMs to provide liquidity. But they if they did, then they could be on the hook for hundreds of billions, with no realistic prospect of delta hedging.

To sum up until the index tracking funds are allowed to buy there will more than usual buying pressure and it is in no ones interest to sell. This will drive the share price up and up.

After that until the 21st December there will be a fight between those wanting to cash out at the peak and those needing to buy almost at any cost, this is likely to lead to wild price swings, perhaps 20% up or down in a day. The other possibility is a very sharp high peak and then a crash.

By the new year I expect the share price to be returning to fundamentals, so perhaps about $600, but with lots of volatility. This volatility is driven by the different ways of valuing a company EDP, DCF, etc. giving wildly differing valuations and the inherent uncertainty of Tesla's S-curve ramp in production and the introduction of FSD.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I've been trying to game theory what might happen over the next five weeks. Not easy as there are many actors.

Until the index tracker funds are allowed to buy I think it is in no-ones interest to sell (except day traders, high frequency trading and other algos).

The key to this is realizing that a squeeze is happening and that there is guaranteed buying when the index trackers are finally allowed in. So there is no incentive to sell now, no matter what the price the index trackers will be forced to pay.

Short sellers will be forced to cover. That is about 1 million shares on average, but probably concentrated in the first few days. Maybe half the shares shorted will cover, the rest will be part of various hedging strategies, it is possible that most of those cover as well as the hedging strategy becomes mute.

Index benchmark funds, probably have few Tesla shares to sell, but have a large incentive to buy. Regardless of whether they aim to be above, below or equal weight in Tesla in the long term, in the short term they can ride the rise and beat the index. On average they will probably end up slightly under-weight, but that is still a lot of shares they need to buy and hold. Some might decide to wait, and only buy after index inclusion and the share price has settled down, this avoids potential losses but also misses the chance to beat the index. If they all bought to hit equal weight by 21st December that would be about 10 million shares a day, it will be lower than that, perhaps 3-5 million shares a day.

Some index tracker funds will have rules allowing them to buy early, or other mechanisms allowing them to acquire shares, perhaps 0,1 million shares a day at present rising to 1-2 million just before the main index tracker purchase period.

Traders, hedge funds, etc. will probably do a similar analysis to this and so will want to buy and hold until the index trackers start buying. They will try and time the top of the squeeze, which could lead to violent swings.

There could be FOMO among retail and some institutional investors, hard to predict how much, many I think lost out over the summer and will be reluctant to gamble on S&P inclusion again.

Call buying (private and institutional investors) will have to be delta hedged by the MMs, maybe to the tune of 1 million shares.

If there are so many shares being taken out of the immediate float each day and no significant selling, it would normally be up to the MMs to provide liquidity. But they if they did, then they could be on the hook for hundreds of billions, with no realistic prospect of delta hedging.

To sum up until the index tracking funds are allowed to buy there will more than usual buying pressure and it is in no ones interest to sell. This will drive the share price up and up.

After that until the 21st December there will be a fight between those wanting to cash out at the peak and those needing to buy almost at any cost, this is likely to lead to wild price swings, perhaps 20% up or down in a day. The other possibility is a very sharp high peak and then a crash.

By the new year I expect the share price to be returning to fundamentals, so perhaps about $600, but with lots of volatility. This volatility is driven by the different ways of valuing a company EDP, DCF, etc. giving wildly differing valuations and the inherent uncertainty of Tesla's S-curve ramp in production and the introduction of FSD.

"this is likely to lead to wild price swings, perhaps 20% up or down in a day" - 'Likely'? what else would you expect from $TSLA?

 

[adiggs]

Why, that sounds awfully naughty and greedy. I cannot imagine such skulduggery going on in the stock market!

There isn't anything to stop it, and I think that the May oil contract going negative, plus the TSLA addition to SP 500 index, is going to cause more and more indexes / ETFs that trade at scale and on a publicly announced basis, to go underground with their specific trades. Publishing large trades in advance is an invitation to front running the big purchase.

I'm not counting on it happening, but I also won't be surprised if we experience some serious share shortage in daily TSLA trades. We would know that's happening if there are BIG jumps in the share price as buyers that have no choice but to buy, go looking for sellers that don't want to sell.