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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Can we circle back to this Mary Barra selling stock thing? How does a chair/CEO sell more than half their stock and it closes up? How is this not a massive story?
I didn’t mean to come across snarky or disbelieving. Just asking if that’s about the level of suppression we're considering here.No, I think the naked shorts suppressed the SP to $85 in March 2020, and to $37 in May 2019.
Do you think the guy on your lawn yelling 'fire' while standing next to your 'For Sale' sign is holding back any potential offers on your House? Or reducing the selling price?
Fitting that they got burnt.
Index inclusion is a technical event, not a fundamentals one. So the short answer is no one except people who are trying to speculate on short term movements during the event.
Funds that "have to buy" could not care less about the day to day movements of the price, their job is simply to make sure they hold the same number of shares in the same proportion to the index they are tracking. What happens with the daily price movements is literally just animals crawling around on the Earth eating dirt while they soar in the heavens. They'll buy TSLA whether it's $10 a share or $1000 a share, it's just an index component to them.
The hedge funds are more than happy to try and run the price up on index inclusion, it's free money for them if they buy on the way up and sell at the top. The MM's are more than happy to fight to keep the price suppressed so calls expire worthless, it's free money for them if they succeed and it's meaningless to them if they don't since they literally make the market by holding the shares people buy and sell.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
My brother called me last Thursday night and sheepishly asked if I thought this would be a good time to be TSLA or if it was "too late". He's been resisting all this time even though I've let him know what I think and had given him a lengthy test drive of my Performance Model 3.
I told him it wasn't too late to take a long-term position. I said the share price oscillations have been steadily declining over the previous few months as it settles in around $408 and that is a good price. I added that we are very close to one of two things; a breakout to the upside or a sharp drop. I put it at 80% to the upside but added that no one knows. I started to say he might consider breaking his buy into two for cost averaging purposes but then I remembered that S&P could happen at any time so I did a 180 and said I would just buy it all at once. He thanked me and told me that's what he wanted to know.
After the S&P announcement I called him to see if he had pulled the trigger and he said he had, around $408. He didn't seem to understand the significance of the S&P 500 but was happy with his entry after it zoomed up on Tues.
The point is, Based on the share price action over the last several months, I was expecting a break-out (with a 20% chance of a drop) with or without an S&P announcement.
When one ponders how a stock price can be manipulated, it is necessary to understand that there are several ways to control a stock price, given enough money. It is difficult to discern how much "legal" shorting vis-a-vis "naked shorting" contribute to a major downward move of an SP. But, the one thing that most people here are missing in this endeavor, is that short selling, whether it be legit or naked can now (since 2007) be done on DOWNticks. You have to actually spend some time thinking about the power of this ability to really understand how it is done. Think about it: if you are a legitimate long, do you want to pay a higher price than the market is showing?---no. Conversely, why would a legitimate short want to sell at a LOWER price? Pretty simple, really.
If you're wondering why NKLA has risen so much the last days, look no further:
Nikola soars as clueless investors mistake month-old GM website for new
(It was too funny not to link)
--------------------------------------------
California has just imposed a Covid curfew, however Tesla should not be effected. But then, they were also not effected by the first lockdown, until Alameda and Bay area decided to expand the regulations.
"Workers critical to the manufacturing, distribution, sales, rental, leasing, repair, and maintenance of vehicles and other transportation equipment (including electric vehicle charging stations) and the supply chains that enable these operations, subject to adhering public health guidance issued by CDPH."
https://covid19.ca.gov/essential-workforce/
Edit: Alameda county also allows manufacturing during the curfew!
Nikola soars as clueless investors mistake month-old GM website for new
(It was too funny not to link)
--------------------------------------------
California has just imposed a Covid curfew, however Tesla should not be effected. But then, they were also not effected by the first lockdown, until Alameda and Bay area decided to expand the regulations.
"Workers critical to the manufacturing, distribution, sales, rental, leasing, repair, and maintenance of vehicles and other transportation equipment (including electric vehicle charging stations) and the supply chains that enable these operations, subject to adhering public health guidance issued by CDPH."
https://covid19.ca.gov/essential-workforce/
Edit: Alameda county also allows manufacturing during the curfew!
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She probably called Trevor Milton and asked him what he’s going to do in December
ARK sold almost 200k shares today. Oh no, we're doomed!
I think of it as a "help" ...like when a car is at the top of a hill and a little push will get it rolling down.
The folks that want the stock to go down "help" it by shorting. Sometimes they wait till a macro event then "help" the stock go down faster and further than it would if they didn't.
Certainly they are not responsible for every dollar drop but when they can make money of accelerating that drop they do.
@Papafox has a pretty detailed picture of this.
Plus Jake Ricard did a nice blog post as well about the shenangines that entity's do to control the price.
I was about to post that.
So their bet is that it will drop till the actual S&Pinclusion on December 21st?
TSLA reached 15% of their portfolio?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, it's cool man, no offense taken. But as Wayne Gretzky would say, "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take". That's what naked shorting accomplishes: it suppresses the number of shots taken.
Cheers!
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TSLA just went up 25% in three days. I'd guess they thought it was time to rebalance. I doubt it means anything about their expectations for the next month. They may be doing this several times between now and when inclusion happens.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Not enough to matter thusfar.
Now by the time Tesla needs to sell 10x or 20x or 50x as many cars, yeah the niggling little QC things will matter.... but GOOD NEWS!
From what we've seen MiC cars are a lot better on this stuff... possibly thanks to building a new factory from scratch, and doing so with all the lessons learned from retrofitting Freemont and from the mistakes made during the 3/Y ramps there.
Even better news- GigaBerlin and Texas will not only be entirely new factories- but likely ALSO build on not just the lessons learned from Freemont, but China too- and offer even better QC than Shanghai.
Ideally as many of these improvements as possible make their way back to Freemont eventually since that's still the only place the S and X (2 of the cars CR is dinging for quality issues) are built right now.
I think you have them mixed up with JD Power.
No car company "participates" in consumer reports surveys. They don't survey car companies, they survey car owners.
More specifically- CR surveys their own members/subscribers who report back on whatever kind of cars they happen to own- for 2020 they got 329,000 responses to their survey for example.
It's JD Power that attempts to contact owners using info from the car makers... everyone but Tesla gives them permission to access their customer lists. They don't need permission in 35 states, so recently began offering Tesla scores on that incomplete data- but lack the data from the other 15 states.
The other difference worth noting is CR doesn't take any money from car companies for any of this.
JD Power is happy to sell their own research as a product to car companies... and also to charge a licensing fee to those car companies to use the results and the JD Power logo/awards given out in advertising.... this is in fact their main sources of revenue.
So CR works for actual car owners rather than JD Power which works for automotive companies essentially.
Not that CR isn't a bit GET OFF MY LAWN about stuff, but they're really a different set of data and a different type of company.
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adiggs
Well-Known Member
Driver fled the scene - later found, taken to hospital for minor injuries.
The rest of the details will follow them. But heck - they lost control at 100mph and get to deal with legal consequences!
Just a guess, but I would say that a generation that can do google and youtube search is not using CR for anything.
Whoah! Solstice, conjunction and inclusion on the same date.When the giant planets Jupiter & Saturn will appear their closest together in the sky since 1623, at about one-fifth the angular width of a Full Moon. Hmmm, wonder if Elon's spacefaring Tesla will squeeze between them.
View attachment 610050
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Because it's pretty standard for ~every CEO and other senior executive to have some sort of diversification plan in place that regularly reduces their holding in the company they work for, so they don't become overly concentrated.
It makes sense from a personal financial planning perspective - I think it's weak in the CEO, and contributes to a quarterly focus on the part of the C-suite more generally. As a result, I mostly don't trust CEOs to actually have my (long term) interests at heart. I trust them to have their own interests at heart, under the hypothesis that our interested are in alignment, when in reality they're interested in 'short term' and I'm not.
It's just one of many reasons why I trust GM to fumble the EV transition badly.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
After-action Report: Thu, Nov 19, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)
Headline: "TSLA Hits Multiple ATHs"
'Short' Report:
Comment: "Back to the Future"
QOTD: @DragonWatch "Tesla has been gainingsteam voltage since 2010 ~ shocking"
View all Lodger's After-Action Reports
Cheers!
Headline: "TSLA Hits Multiple ATHs"
Traded: $31,237,414,873.15 ($31.24B)
Volume: 62,478,520
VWAP: $499.97
Close: $499.27 / VWAP: 99.85%
TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain: $425
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $473.259B / $195.249B = 242.39%
Note: Yahoo Finance updated TSLA Mkt Cap for shares issued Sep 9th (per 10-Q)
CEO Comp. Status:Volume: 62,478,520
VWAP: $499.97
Close: $499.27 / VWAP: 99.85%
TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain: $425
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $473.259B / $195.249B = 242.39%
Note: Yahoo Finance updated TSLA Mkt Cap for shares issued Sep 9th (per 10-Q)
TSLA 30-day Moving Avg Market Cap: $402.30
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $316.63
Nota Bene: Mkt Cap for 5th tranche ($300B) likely achieved Nov 09, 2020
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $316.63
Nota Bene: Mkt Cap for 5th tranche ($300B) likely achieved Nov 09, 2020
'Short' Report:
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 55.8% (56th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 57.8% (55th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume ratio was 0.98% of Short Volume (49th Percentile Rank)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 57.8% (55th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume ratio was 0.98% of Short Volume (49th Percentile Rank)
Comment: "Back to the Future"
QOTD: @DragonWatch "Tesla has been gaining
View all Lodger's After-Action Reports
Cheers!
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