Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Folks were reporting their 7 seater saying that since at least February
Model Y - 7 Seater - Prepare for Delivery
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Folks were reporting their 7 seater saying that since at least February
Model Y - 7 Seater - Prepare for Delivery
Just wanted to point out that it's seems possible that FSD will come out in software version 11, which frankly seems more of a catalyst than s and p would be. Not saying robotaxi time, but should prove that robotaxis are actually doable with a Tesla. Maybe I'm overly optimistic but it feels like it'll be a nice winter for tesla
I have lot of respect for Ark for what they do, sure they do a great job trading Tesla but holding Ark for 10% exposure for Tesla doesn’t work for everyone, I am sure Ark also misses unexpected upside time to time on Tesla, 80% of most stock moves happen in 20% time frame.
gabeincal
HODLer / Theta seller
Maybe, this time, it's time to be a little more greedy with calls and hold them longer...
Elon mentioned widening the beta userbase next week I think. Perhaps early to mid-December wide release..?
Probably get more FUD until ER where we see margins jump up to 30%+ due to FSD revenue recognition. SP will spike and then follow by slow walk down because everyone and their mothers will cry about FSD revenue not being real revenue like EV credits..lol.
For those who have watched a bunch of FSD videos, for the most part the car does okay. However there are instances where the car goes into the opposite lane after a stop light, or wants to drive into a parked car(not that it would..but the path finding wants to) because that parked car is in a lane the car thinks is the turning lane. So we will get more of these cases amplified with wide release so there will not be any shortage of FUD.
I've seen some of those videos. They are on the 3rd or 4th version since the initial limited release. Maybe I'm overly optimistic again but I think much of that type of stuff will be fixed for the most part by release. I think by release it will be able to identify when it knows it doesn't know what to do and get angry and loud at the driver. Also guessing they'll be using that in car camera to make sure people are paying attention.
You're right. Thanks for the correction.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
When a company is innovating, growing and surprising to the upside as quickly as Tesla, I think it's impossible to ascribe it's 50% gain solely to the stock split. Certainly, the split raised awareness of the company and helped bring in new buyers but all those gains cannot be attributed to the split.
JusRelax
Member
Indeed. The rate at which the market warms up to feature complete FSD and the possibility of robotaxi will be very gradual. I don't believe it will make any positive impact on the sp in December.
I think those problems will require some training to iron out(especially the ones where it goes into the opposite lane after a light due to irregularity of the road) as there are many edge cases a wide release will pick up.
I don't think sp will move from FSD until we see an uptick of adopters from new buyers and older buyers as many people will write off Q4's FSD revenue recognition dump as a one time deal. MS seems to think there will be upticks and are fully prepared for margin increase so at least there's that.
Artful Dodger
"Ducimus, lit"
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Mo City
Active Member
I'm with you the market will reward TSLA handsomely if/when FSD proves robotaxis are certain to happen. But it won't be this winter. I think we have a year or so minimum before that comes to pass.
Blame Brandon for my opinion. Either Sacramento is the Bermuda Triangle for FSD beta or his car is possessed.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Seriously?
It was only 0.69 % of ARKK and 0.31% of ARKW. This was normal rebalancing. If they were selling because they had any more insight into the stock movements than any of us, they would have sold it all.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I don't think FSD is gonna be a major catalyst at one point in time, even the full release. It's gonna take a while for people to wrap their heads around it, and the FUD will be absolutely rampant.
All this talk about advanced beta wider releases and 4Q earnings/guidance is making it hard to plan. Theoretically we should peak during the inclusion buying. but what about P&D day? And what about the 1M guidance and FSD profit at earning?
How is a fella supposed to know when to sell these covered calls? The volatility for these next two months should be batshit crazy.
All this talk about advanced beta wider releases and 4Q earnings/guidance is making it hard to plan. Theoretically we should peak during the inclusion buying. but what about P&D day? And what about the 1M guidance and FSD profit at earning?
How is a fella supposed to know when to sell these covered calls? The volatility for these next two months should be batshit crazy.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
How about selling them two months from now?
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I think there's a more than decent chance the inclusion peak is far higher than any SP in the new year. Or at least that's what I was certain of earlier today!
Guess I'll just split it up somehow if we don't climb over $650 or so during inclusion.
insaneoctane
Active Member
You make an interesting point... Elon loves to squeeze the shorts and S&P Dec 21 spike will squeeze the shorts, so I wonder if they will purposely delay FSD wide release to occur AFTER the S&P squeeze because of the potential FUD? I'm pretty anxious to try it myself, but I would be willing to wait if it pains the shorts a little more
It will make an impact on Q4 earnings if Tesla can recognize more FSD revenue in December. That may impact the SP in late January.
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