Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Consumer reports has published the results of their annual car reliability survey sometime between Oct 19 and Nov 19 every single year going back at least 10 years (I got bored looking after that but probably for decades).

That' s a hell of a long game they played there just the hurt Tesla today specifically.

Remind me to ask some young kid how one does that eye roll emoji thing.

Voice is power.

Tesla is not the end game here. The punching bag get's moved around to suit their masters. Your analysis is shallow.

 

[StealthP3D]

Indeed. The rate at which the market warms up to feature complete FSD and the possibility of robotaxi will be very gradual. I don't believe it will make any positive impact on the sp in December.

You would probably have a different perspective if you had seen ARK's new price target (unreleased).

Also, I think your two sentences are in direct conflict with one another. Unless you believe the market currently values Tesla's autonomous program at zero.

Assuming Tesla's autonomous program is valued by the market above zero, and I'm sure it is, then we can expect it's value to increase as people gain a better understanding of exactly what Tesla has (as well as the increase in value due to further development).

 

[heltok]

Congrats all!

I don't think FSD is gonna be a major catalyst at one point in time, even the full release. It's gonna take a while for people to wrap their heads around it, and the FUD will be absolutely rampant.

All this talk about advanced beta wider releases and 4Q earnings/guidance is making it hard to plan. Theoretically we should peak during the inclusion buying. but what about P&D day? And what about the 1M guidance and FSD profit at earning?

How is a fella supposed to know when to sell these covered calls? The volatility for these next two months should be batshit crazy.

Even before robotaxi a wide release will be a major source of profit. If Tesla in 2022 does 2M vehicles with todays 30% take rate on a 10k option, that is $6B in pure margins. With a P/E of 50 that is $300B in market cap. Plus the PR and increased demand that will follow. And by then AEB and Autopilot using the same perception should be incredible!

If we just assume that Fremont, Shanghai, Austin, Berlin each will do max 500k/year already FSD should equal more than half of Tesla’s market cap. IMO analysts don’t understand what is happening with FSD, as more and more of them do share price has been increasing...

 

[Green Pete]

You would probably have a different perspective if you had seen ARK's new price target (unreleased).

Worth noting that Ark provides tiers price targets with like 6 tiers.

The reason they are delaying release of the price targets might be a desire to see where FSD is at general release so instead of one moonshot target with robotaxis theyll have multiple robotaxi targets eg:
1. robotaxis in just SF
2. robotaxis in all major american cities
3. robotaxis in all major north american and european cities
4. robotaxis covering the entire us and major european cities
5. robotaxis covering all of north america and europe
etc.

I realize that The solution is a general solution that should work everywhere, however it possible if not likely that some cities will present far more edge cases than others, or that rural america has more edge cases than cities (or maybe the other way around, who knows). Exciting time for tesla tho

edit: brought this up because there's been a lot of "i want arks new target", but we could see their bear case exceed their previous bull case if the stars align in the right way and their new bull case may be mind blowing

 

[JBRR]

$8bn of buying in TSLA

157 of 189 large cap managers that track S&P500 that GS follows do NOT hold TSLA.

"Tesla’s scheduled December 21 inclusion in the S&P 500 could result in $8 billion of demand from active US large-cap mutual funds. Based on current market pricing, Tesla would account for around 1.5% of the S&P 500 index. Since many large-cap core funds are benchmarked to the S&P 500, managers will have to consider including the stock in their portfolios. Of the 189 large-cap core funds in our universe, 157 funds that manage around $500 billion in AUM did not hold TSLA on September 30. Assuming these 157 funds choose to hold TSLA at benchmark weight following its inclusion in the S&P 500, we estimate $8 billion of potential net buying of the stock (2% of TSLA market cap"

The brave warrior managers that decide not to buy will have nightmares about MS "bull case"

$8bn of buying in TSLA | The Market Ear

 

[Lycanthrope]

Trading above $500 in Europe and looks like some rotation of value/recovery stocks back into growth/tech now everyone realises there will be a C19 vaccine, but just not yet.

 

[wipster]

502 us in Germany, night all, you too @Lycanthrope , hope your team wins and your beer is cold!

 

[Lycanthrope]

Trading above $500 in Europe and looks like some rotation of value/recovery stocks back into growth/tech now everyone realises there will be a C19 vaccine, but just not yet.

502 us in Germany, night all, you too @Lycanthrope , hope your team wins and your beer is cold!

Now that's what I call a "smooth transition of power"!

Going to be an interesting day, methinks and browsing ahead at the options charts, $500 strike figures every week for the foreseeable future. What's interesting is that end of December onwards, $600 and then $700 starts to become more prominent.

If $500 could be soundly left behind, then there'd be quite some hedging to be done.

In fact I don't understand why the hedge-funds wouldn't just front-run from here anyway, maybe they are, that's the main buyers right now, but they try their luck anyway today...

 

[S3XY]

My brother called me last Thursday night and sheepishly asked if I thought this would be a good time to be TSLA or if it was "too late". He's been resisting all this time even though I've let him know what I think and had given him a lengthy test drive of my Performance Model 3.

I told him it wasn't too late to take a long-term position. I said the share price oscillations have been steadily declining over the previous few months as it settles in around $408 and that is a good price. I added that we are very close to one of two things; a breakout to the upside or a sharp drop. I put it at 80% to the upside but added that no one knows. I started to say he might consider breaking his buy into two for cost averaging purposes but then I remembered that S&P could happen at any time so I did a 180 and said I would just buy it all at once. He thanked me and told me that's what he wanted to know.

After the S&P announcement I called him to see if he had pulled the trigger and he said he had, around $408. He didn't seem to understand the significance of the S&P 500 but was happy with his entry after it zoomed up on Tues.

The point is, Based on the share price action over the last several months, I was expecting a break-out (with a 20% chance of a drop) with or without an S&P announcement.

I opened Roth IRA's for my daughters when the SP recently dropped below $400. When I told one of them how much it had gone up she said "In a week?!" I told her, "It's TSLA."

 

[StealthP3D]

Apparently we have been doing it wrong:

How to become a millionaire, in 10 steps

I totally forgot step #8 (set up a high-yield savings account). And there was no mention in there of buying TSLA?

 

[astrotoy]

I opened Roth IRA's for my daughters when the SP recently dropped below $400. When I told one of them how much it had gone up she said "In a week?!". I told her, "It's TSLA."

Very wise move. They will thank you in a decade! I did a similar thing, going all in to TSLA with my Roth IRA (converted in 2012 and holding a career's worth of 403b, 457 and IRA contributions) in late 2013 with half and 2015 with the other half. I didn't need it for retirement, so did it for my two grandchildren who were born in 2011 and 2014. I didn't get it on the ground floor (I could have after buying my MS which was delivered in 2/2013) but waited. So my cost basis averaged 150 pre split, not 35-40 if I had bought earlier in 2013. Now seven years later, the Roth is a tax free 17 bagger. I think it could be a 100 bagger or more by the time they go to college, so part of their education should be how to do philanthropy. I hope I'm still around to see them graduate from college.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Thanks @aubreymcfato, I would have missed Hiro's tweet if it wasn't for your post.

Ah, who would've thought I can *actually* be helpful in a forum like this
You should interview him on your channel!

 

[mongo]

Apparently we have been doing it wrong:

How to become a millionaire, in 10 steps

I totally forgot step #8 (set up a high-yield savings account). And there was no mention in there of buying TSLA?

Wait, that's not binary?

• Put all available money into TSLA
• Hold

 

[Nocturnal]

Apparently we have been doing it wrong:

How to become a millionaire, in 10 steps

I totally forgot step #8 (set up a high-yield savings account). And there was no mention in there of buying TSLA?

I almost yelled at my risk adverse friend from my hospital bed when she mentioned she had a chunk of money in a high yield savings account at .5% interest (taxed as ordinary income to boot). She asked for a run through of her investments after I heal. Lol

 

[OrthoSurg]

Seriously?

It was only 0.69 % of ARKK and 0.31% of ARKW. This was normal rebalancing. If they were selling because they had any more insight into the stock movements than any of us, they would have sold it all.

Alright just normal rebalancing

 

[Words of HABIT]

Buffett dumps $800M worth of Apple stock, invests in biotech and groceries

Not sure if Warren Buffet buying TSLA is still a thing. Interesting article from February 18, 2020 when AAPL was trading at $324/sh (pre 4:1 split of August 31, 2020 is equal to $81 in today's share price of $118, so writen when AAPL was 40% lower in share price).

Summary:
AAPL was 32% of Berkshire Hathaway's overall portfolio @ $72B investment. This was 5.6% of all AAPL shares held. And this was after the attention grabbing headline which detailed a <$1B sale of AAPL.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust own $12.5B of BH, resulting in $1.8B ownership of AAPL through BH.

With AAPL's share appreciation BH likely owns more than $100B worth today. I had no idea BH's stake was so high. Note they only started buying Apple in May 2016 and since their initial purchase of $1B which has generated 5X growth has been steadily buying. If BH is the Tesla mystery buyer, hold on to your hat...er...shares. A BH buy is definitely a sign of expected long term growth.

 

[Jackl1956]

Baked in?

Pfizer seeking emergency use of its COVID-19 vaccine in US

Or, could we be in for a strong Friday?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Baked in?

Pfizer seeking emergency use of its COVID-19 vaccine in US

Or, could we be in for a strong Friday?

Fairly sure this was the expected time of the expected filing.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Here’s how Tesla and other car makers could be impacted by Boris Johnson’s ambitious plan for electric vehicles

Summary: Good for Tesla

 

[Singuy]

Baked in?

Pfizer seeking emergency use of its COVID-19 vaccine in US

Or, could we be in for a strong Friday?

Apparently production is underway and they are expecting fda to push this through. My manager announced to us employees we should expect to get our vaccines in mid Dec since we get first dibs as front line health care workers.