Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[insaneoctane]

Buffett dumps $800M worth of Apple stock, invests in biotech and groceries

Not sure if Warren Buffet buying TSLA is still a thing. Interesting article from February 18, 2020 when AAPL was trading at $324/sh (pre 4:1 split of August 31, 2020 is equal to $81 in today's share price of $118, so writen when AAPL was 40% lower in share price).

Summary:
AAPL was 32% of Berkshire Hathaway's overall portfolio @ $72B investment. This was 5.6% of all AAPL shares held. And this was after the attention grabbing headline which detailed a <$1B sale of AAPL.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust own $12.5B of BH, resulting in $1.8B ownership of AAPL through BH.

With AAPL's share appreciation BH likely owns more than $100B worth today. I had no idea BH's stake was so high. Note they only started buying Apple in May 2016 and since their initial purchase of $1B which has generated 5X growth has been steadily buying. If BH is the Tesla mystery buyer, hold on to your hat...er...shares. A BH buy is definitely a sign of expected long term growth.

*IF* BH did buy into $TSLA, can anyone take a shot at the timing of the reveal, the timing of the Dec 21 SP overshoot then settle? Curious how they might interact.... Not looking for advice

 

[Cosmacelf]

This is great. I'll call it the Musk solution to the China problem. The China problem is that you can't ignore the Chinese market, it is too big. But people who set up manufacturing there (and you must to avoid tariffs, among other reasons) soon find other companies exactly duplicating what you've built.

I always wondered how Elon was going to square that circle with respect to his Chinese factory. The obvious answer was that he was simple going to continuously innovate faster than the Chinese could copy. So far, that seems to be the plan, and so far, it seems to be working:

 

[GrandEnigma]

Problem with schol zones is that the speed limits are a function of both time and geography

That has been an area I have been curious about for some time. My area of NJ/NYC has a number of time of day right turns on red as well as time of day turns in general. Will be fascinating to see how they tackle this.

 

[juanmedina]

Luckily, I read his tweet monday, and this pushed me to converted (sell) 20% of my shares and go DITM with $200 sep21 calls. Upped those "shares" by 50% this way, and had cash left for a handful of jan/feb21 calls at $500.

Thank you TT007 ;-)

can you explain this strategy? so you sold 100 shares to buy 3 September 21 $200 strike calls? I was looking at the price on those options on the 17th vs today compared to holding the 100 shares for the same time period and the gains were almost the same. Maybe I did something wrong. At todays IV of 73% it doesn't seem too late to swap share to options IMO but I am just curious if is worth it.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I know this isn't the Xpeng thread or whatever. But Elon Musk going on a nice anti-Xpeng rampage on Twitter. Could be informative to some.

Edit: He's being very restrained. Maybe we'll get more later.

It wasn't a rampage. And it is informative. And accurate.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

 

[Krugerrand]

Problem with schol zones is that the speed limits are a function of both time and geography

Making the problem insurmountable because the car doesn’t know the time of day, can’t identify when the school crossing signs are flashing or not, there’s no way for counties or cities to make road changes in the future that are more conducive and thoughtful in terms of FSD vehicles —

That you can’t imagine a solution doesn’t mean it’s something that can’t be resolved, perhaps easily. Roundabouts are way more challenging to negotiate than school zones.

I want to know how they’re going to teach it to make toast. Now that’s something to fret over.

 

[Big Time]

Time to turn this ship around.

I’ll handle this.

****Flips Switch****

SPANK

 

[lafrisbee]

I have no understanding of the plot for today. The volume is much lower than the last two days. And yet those that are supposedly going to front-run inclusion also know that the MM's will try and keep the stock below $500 (is there any solid proof that maxpain is around $500?). So is what we are seeing the buyers sitting on their hands because they are patiently waiting to see how far the stock price will drop before they buy? I did watch one or two technical guys on Youtube last night say the stock would come down to the $480's before taking off. Though I usually watch them for entertainment.
$500 SP would be a very respectable place to end the day, and make for a pleasant week end with Xmas Monday likely. But so would seeing the MM's lose it today.

 

[Krugerrand]

That has been an area I have been curious about for some time. My area of NJ/NYC has a number of time of day right turns on red as well as time of day turns in general. Will be fascinating to see how they tackle this.

Not hard. The car knows time of day, day of week, or if it’s a national holiday. It even knows what year it is. I know, shocker.

The car can read signs.

Problem solved.

 

[mikevbf]

This is great. I'll call it the Musk solution to the China problem. The China problem is that you can't ignore the Chinese market, it is too big. But people who set up manufacturing there (and you must to avoid tariffs, among other reasons) soon find other companies exactly duplicating what you've built.

I always wondered how Elon was going to square that circle with respect to his Chinese factory. The obvious answer was that he was simple going to continuously innovate faster than the Chinese could copy. So far, that seems to be the plan, and so far, it seems to be working:
View attachment 610250

I tend to agree especially as regards the big picture of Tesla vehicles being able to autonomously drive outside walled gardens. But, one thing I noticed is that Xpeng's ability to get their cars to autonomously navigate a parking lot and find a spot and park is way better than Tesla which makes me believe they can innovate too. Whatever software they might have taken it is considerably different and better now. I used to joke that Tesla should steal back. But with FSD beta out, my tune has changed regarding Tesla's ability to get to level 4+ autonomy better than anyone else.

 

[AudubonB]

No need to fret, dear Cat. ICE = toast.

 

[lafrisbee]

It is not so difficult to understand how much something like FSD will drive better than a human when humans postulate that a computer with cameras can not tell time and read street signs.
I have little faith in humans. And the belief that somehow humans can manage "School Zones" better than FSD reinforces my lack of faith.

"SCHOOL ZONE
15 MPH
7:30 AM - 8:30 AM
2:30 PM - 3:30 PM"

WTF.

 

[Tslynk67]

Meanwhile, back at the ranch...

Puts higher than calls, all the way to $490 now! $500 calls decreased from 35k to 25k, allowing some offloading of hedge-shares, probably more $500 selling ongoing = likely this which is causing the drop.

In any case, close today in the $490's, if THEY can do it - lower volume would suggest yes.

 

[Sudre]

Looks like they did not manage to clear out the $495 Calls and THEY were not able to sell enough Puts at that strike either. Sure it's not much and can easily be rolled to another weeks but why when they can simply push the SP down. Today's true goal is to stay under $500 with the bonus round of keeping it under $495.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I have no understanding of the plot for today. The volume is much lower than the last two days. And yet those that are supposedly going to front-run inclusion also know that the MM's will try and keep the stock below $500 (is there any solid proof that maxpain is around $500?). So is what we are seeing the buyers sitting on their hands because they are patiently waiting to see how far the stock price will drop before they buy? I did watch one or two technical guys on Youtube last night say the stock would come down to the $480's before taking off. Though I usually watch them for entertainment.
$500 SP would be a very respectable place to end the day, and make for a pleasant week end with Xmas Monday likely. But so would seeing the MM's lose it today.

The worst of the early rush to buy after the announcement has slowed, but that's not the problem. The major issue from now til the end of the year is that no one in their right mind will sell. So the normal shenanigans like we're seeing right now with this MMD will bounce even harder than usual.

I would imagine the traders all know this and are licking their chops at a free 2% swing in TSLA they're pretty much guaranteed buying at the low and selling at 3pm.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Buy at $492, take a 90 minute lunch, sell at $499. Free money.

 

[Runarbt]

can you explain this strategy? so you sold 100 shares to buy 3 September 21 $200 strike calls? I was looking at the price on those options on the 17th vs today compared to holding the 100 shares for the same time period and the gains were almost the same. Maybe I did something wrong. At todays IV of 73% it doesn't seem too late to swap share to options IMO but I am just curious if is worth it.

I sold 200 shares (15-20% of my shares), and bought 3x sept 2021 calls.

I do need SP for sept2021 to be $650 for these calls to be worth more than the 200 shares I sold.
(650-200 = 450x300 = 135k , while 200 shares x650 = 135k)

However - I did have about 14k left after buying those 3x sept2021 calls.
I spent those on some nice (imho) $500 jan/feb-2021 calls as a S&P500 play.

So far - I am up an extra 15-20k, compared to if I had just HODL those 200 shares.

I have no idea how this will turn out in the end. Might sell all calls and go back into stocks after Q1 ER.
Or just roll the sept2021 calls a year at a time.

 

[jhm]

Not hard. The car knows time of day, day of week, or if it’s a national holiday. It even knows what year it is. I know, shocker.

The car can read signs.

Problem solved.

 

[ZeApelido]

Speaking of Bangkok, I spotted this beauty parked at the JW Marriott the night TSLA began its big S&P inclusion run up. The red plates indicate it’s new. Until MIC Teslas make their way to Thailand with ASEAN treaty duty-free benefits, they will be a rare sight, as importing them comes with something like a 100-200% import tax.

View attachment 610234

Hard to tell if that's a he or a she.