Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

Thanks for this suggestion. I cancelled the CC. Furthermore, I hope it wasn’t a mistake, but I just sold 200 sh at $522. I had the order set for 525, then changed it after the first pull back. Damn, it would have hit at 525. I’m still long, and this was a “hopefully” strategic sell to free up capital for buying a bunch of calls on Friday. Thanks to Oil4AsphaultOnly for suggesting that this technique is more bullish (instead of selling a OTM CC at 600 or 700 strike). I’m hoping for another pullback this Friday, where I will redeploy this cash into buying some calls. Suggestions for strikes and exp? The 12/24 545c that I bought last Friday are up 40% today. I might pile into some more of those or try the week before or later. Hmmmmmm.

Do you know what waiting for "another pullback" often results in?

A blown opportunity.

This is not advice. Invest at your own risk.

 

[hobbes]

Electrek reporting on a hacked Model X. Per Reuters, TSLA says it's pushing a patch.

Belgian University of Leuven group hacked it, got 5500 EUR from Tesla for revealing the problem:
https://www.imec-int.com/en/press/b...-imec-demonstrate-serious-flaws-tesla-model-x
Sicherheitslücke: Wenn der Tesla X innerhalb weniger Minuten geöffnet wird

 

[Krugerrand]

Correct. Yes, I know that’s timing, and it’s a lot of cash. I’m definitely not certain of a Friday pullback. Just hopeful. I’m thinking that with Thanksgiving week, the volume will be low and the MM / Hedge Funds will be able to manipulate the SP more easily. I could be very wrong. Worst case, I don’t jump back in and I’ve lost future value of those shares.

You probably weren’t suggesting that I sell so many shares, just enough to fund the purchase of a few call contracts. Maybe I got a bit over zealous. Don’t worry, this is in an IRA, which I wasn’t planning to need for decades. I had a pretty good gain so far and felt like taking some profits. I will probably only deploy 40-60% into calls, 20-30% into puts, and hold the rest for future moves. I haven’t bought or sold any puts yet, so I will be evaluating those more closely. I’m still not sure of my future moves. However, I still have quite a few core shares in my ROTH, some 12/24 545c, plus some 2022-2023 LEAPS that are doing quite well.

Now, I’m heading out to enjoy the day, leaving the keyboard an marketplace to others. Enjoy. It will be an interesting future.

Worst case is way worse than you state, but I don’t want to ruin your day. Hope it works out like you plan.

 

[Runarbt]

Correct. Yes, I know that’s timing, and it’s a lot of cash. I’m definitely not certain of a Friday pullback. Just hopeful. I’m thinking that with Thanksgiving week, the volume will be low and the MM / Hedge Funds will be able to manipulate the SP more easily. I could be very wrong. Worst case, I don’t jump back in and I’ve lost future value of those shares.

You probably weren’t suggesting that I sell so many shares, just enough to fund the purchase of a few call contracts. Maybe I got a bit over zealous. Don’t worry, this is in an IRA, which I wasn’t planning to need for decades. I had a pretty good gain so far and felt like taking some profits. I will probably only deploy 40-60% into calls, 20-30% into puts, and hold the rest for future moves. I haven’t bought or sold any puts yet, so I will be evaluating those more closely. I’m still not sure of my future moves. However, I still have quite a few core shares in my ROTH, some 12/24 545c, plus some 2022-2023 LEAPS that are doing quite well.

Now, I’m heading out to enjoy the day, leaving the keyboard an marketplace to others. Enjoy. It will be an interesting future.

I see a steady climb up until friday, when we might get a pullback to - say 560-570?

 

[StealthP3D]

Again up till June this year Tesla was buying 3rd party traffic data to add to their own.

They stopped.

Which means Tesla data initiatives just keep pushing margins higher relative to other manufacturers who have to pay others for the data they need to provide to offer competitive products. Tesla can use the higher margins to increase profits, re-invest in further expansion or cut selling prices. It's Tesla's choice to suit the ever-evolving environment.

Most of us have known for a long time that the competition was NOT coming. I think we are getting to the point that even the slowest people in the investment arena, Mark Spiegel comes to mind as the poster child of the misguided idiots, will be coming to this same conclusion very soon. That the competition is NOT coming after all!

Sure, there will be other EV's on the market. But it will be like the Model T boom years. Ford was increasing production capacity as fast as possible and they sold every Model T as soon as it came off the line because it offered so much more value than any competitor could offer. People bought competitors products simply because they wanted a new car and they didn't have a waiting list. The Model T had 60% of the automotive market at it's peak and it would have been closer to 90% had they been able to make enough of them. Yes, there were plenty of alternatives but the other manufacturers couldn't lower prices enough to compete with the value Ford offered.

So, how much is TSLA worth if the competition is NOT coming?

 

[FS_FRA]

Frankfurt TSLA will continue to trade as normal on Thu / Fri, correct? When we have Thu off and Fri half-day?

Yes, no Thanksgiving bank holiday in FRA. Will be really interesting to see how volumes look end of the week for $TL.0

 

[Tyler34]

To all you folks selling calls like $300-400 OTM, I'll say it again...."its like picking up pennies in front of a steam roller." Whatever catalyst that takes it to 900, can just as well take it to 1000 or 1100 or 1500, and youll ask yourself if the $7/share you collected was really worth getting ran over.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Fin Times today:

GM forced to recall 6m vehicles over faulty airbags
Carmaker faces $1.2bn bill after losing four-year fight with US safety regulator

Sorry no link.
Story by Claire Bushey
Chicago correspondent

 

[lafrisbee]

from a money-grabbing instinct perspective, Anyone that is interacting with TSLA will not be taking it easy on any day till near the end of January.
Thursday is not a TSLA Holiday. All those with TSLA association will either be selling it to their relatives over a family get together, or will be staying home looking at the choices, and planning their strategy...for Friday.
Friday's half-day could be a whole new surprise.

 

[BlackS]

Fin Times today:

GM forced to recall 6m vehicles over faulty airbags
Carmaker faces $1.2bn bill after losing four-year fight with US safety regulator

Sorry no link.
Story by Claire Bushey
Chicago correspondent

That explains why $GM is only up 4% today!

 

[Pezpunk]

this has to be the most boring +6% of all time.

 

[Big Time]

If this cracks 525.15, I would think it’s headed over 10% sometime today

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sell covered call options? 12/18 $950 ?

..nah, wont catch a spike the way your want I guess.

But will net you a cool $70 bucks pr. contract. ;-D

My primary move for December is selling covered-calls leading up to and hopefully catching the peak. Willing to write against all my shares at varying strikes if the SP is right at the time, though at least half will be way way OTM.

I also want to be able to sell off the few dozen odd leftovers that aren't a multiple of 100 if the SP spikes to something crazy Or if it goes real crazy, sell a hundred or two in 20 share batches at various nosebleed levels with the intention(gamble) of buying back in 2021 for less. Fidelity won't let me set a sell order that's beyond 50% appreciation. Maybe I'm doing something wrong?

Want to set the structure of this plan in my Fidelity account so I can just fine tune the strikes as we inch toward Christmas.

 

[ClownMouth]

Question for those who might have worked "behind the scenes": if Tesla is to be added to the S&P 500 on 12/21 when will the actual buying by S&P Index Funds take place? Certainly not all during market hours on that Monday 12/21, right? I have heard or seen people talk about a 3- or 7-day window before that date but I haven't heard it from anyone who has been through it before. (I also know there was talk by S&P of adding in 2 separate tranches but the question of how many days the buying actually occurs before each reported date still stands). Thanks

 

[traxila]

My primary move for December is selling covered-calls leading up to and hopefully catching the peak. Willing to write against all my shares at varying strikes if the SP is right at the time, though at least half will be way way OTM.

I also want to be able to sell off the few dozen odd leftovers that aren't a multiple of 100 if the SP spikes to something crazy Or if it goes real crazy, sell a hundred or two in 20 share batches at various nosebleed levels with the intention(gamble) of buying back in 2021 for less. Fidelity won't let me set a sell order that's beyond 50% appreciation. Maybe I'm doing something wrong?

Want to set the structure of this plan in my Fidelity account so I can just fine tune the strikes as we inch toward Christmas.

Have heard these issues with the price being to far away from market with multiple brokers. This is a defense they have instituted recently. Seems that it somehow works to stop shenanigans with fake orders moving prices somehow although I do not get it.

I AM happy to report that TD Ameritrade gives me no issues at all.

Interactive Brokers warns me repeatedly that it is an order far away from market but allows me to place the order.

Cannot imagine sticking with a broker that gave me nonsense like this.

 

[jeewee3000]

Today's +6% rise is happening on relatively little volume.

If volume were to increase in the coming days/weeks, we'd see an even greater rally.

Christmas really did come early this year.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Which means Tesla data initiatives just keep pushing margins higher relative to other manufacturers who have to pay others for the data they need to provide to offer competitive products. Tesla can use the higher margins to increase profits, re-invest in further expansion or cut selling prices. It's Tesla's choice to suit the ever-evolving environment.

Most of us have known for a long time that the competition was NOT coming. I think we are getting to the point that even the slowest people in the investment arena, Mark Spiegel comes to mind as the poster child of the misguided idiots, will be coming to this same conclusion very soon. That the competition is NOT coming after all!

Sure, there will be other EV's on the market. But it will be like the Model T boom years. Ford was increasing production capacity as fast as possible and they sold every Model T as soon as it came off the line because it offered so much more value than any competitor could offer. People bought competitors products simply because they wanted a new car and they didn't have a waiting list. The Model T had 60% of the automotive market at it's peak and it would have been closer to 90% had they been able to make enough of them. Yes, there were plenty of alternatives but the other manufacturers couldn't lower prices enough to compete with the value Ford offered.

So, how much is TSLA worth if the competition is NOT coming?

Or they'll take niche EV categories that Tesla hasn't focused on. Like $18 K (minus EV rebate) commuter / grocery car Electrameccanica's SOLO (also +10x since March), or it's awesome (but far from produced) roadster projected to cost 1/4 the price of a Roadster.

 

[Ameliorate]

To all you folks selling calls like $300-400 OTM, I'll say it again...."its like picking up pennies in front of a steam roller." Whatever catalyst that takes it to 900, can just as well take it to 1000 or 1100 or 1500, and youll ask yourself if the $7/share you collected was really worth getting ran over.

Truth. I'm holding Jan 2021 200 (1000 strike pre split) calls I picked up in Feb/Mar this year that are up 4,600% Would be kicking myself if I was a seller of calls....

I made 46x my investment on that one (so far). They still did great making 5x but without selling the options they'd be at $520 or 13X.

To clarify, they sacrificed $316 per share to guarantee $6

 

[Robocop]

"“We believe the ambitious electrification goals of the President-elect, California, and General Motors are aligned, to address climate change by drastically reducing automobile emissions,” Barra said in the letter."

GM backing down on some suit about emissions in CA. GM flips to California's side in pollution fight with Trump

 

[SOULPEDL]

NIO is now worth more than GM (and Ford and FCA, etc.)

I also added back the March 18 data point I'd lost - the low water mark for 2020. This highlights TSLA growing almost 10x in less than a year!

View attachment 611126

Here's another look at comparing NIO with TSLA. Shown is the 1 yr and 3 yr SP comparison.

It's certainly been a good year for NIO, but I also did not miss out by not owning it because Tesla, over a 3 yr period, did better than NIO.
Only question is if NIO has a better product long-term. What if the $25K Tesla, right?

"Long" live Tesla!