Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Tesla Stock: Jim Cramer Outlines His Bull Case

Cramer says "There are no sellers of $TSLA stock" $TSLA starts at 13:56 of the video.

 

[juanmedina]

and it is more than 1 Hr long.

I watched the video at 1.5x. He thinks he can make 20x he bought the contracts between $7-5

 

[mejojo]

this has to be the most boring +6% of all time.

Mod: I've had enough of the sexist meme photo (the one with the guy and two girls). Don't post this or variants ever again. --ggr.

 

[Unpilot]

Man this is so fun to watch this stress test.
Volume is pretty low...but nobody is selling..what will happen when a LOT of buying happens?

SpaceX liftoff that's what...going to be fun!

 

[mejojo]

This is kinda stupid. It invites MM to target that option for expiration.

I didn't watch the video, but I'm guessing he's not going to be holding to expiration/exercise?

 

[Robocop]

I didn't watch the video, but I'm guessing he's not going to be holding to expiration/exercise?

I got the impression he'd sell if it 20x's. He also said even at 10x he may sell a portion, to eliminate the risk of a total loss, but let the rest ride.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sharp TSLA coverage from CNBC Power Lunch just now.

"Wow, that's high!"
"Yeah it is."

Really useful insights for your investor audience.

 

[Big Time]

What r macros doing? News?

 

[Curt Renz]

What r macros doing? News?

WSJ - 10 minutes ago: WSJ News Exclusive | Janet Yellen Is Biden’s Pick for Treasury Secretary

Excerpt:

President-elect Joe Biden plans to nominate former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, an economist at the forefront of policy-making for three decades, to become the next Treasury secretary, according to people familiar with the decision.

Mod: leaving this post only because it seems to answer a real question, and to point out that it has absolutely nothing to do with Tesla. The incoming administration's appointments will, in general, have nothing to do with Tesla, so they are politics. So no more please. --ggr.

 

[Cobbler]

Model SR+ MIC according [to the official manual] page 160: Weight empty: 1756kg with LFP (1625kg previous) Max weight loaded : 2170kg with LFP (2017kg previous)

NextMove claimed 200kg heavier with LfP, while it's actually 131kg? Also upper limit is higher than what NextMove claims. [Their YTvideo shows a scribble picture of a document]

Isn't this a distraction from the VW ID3 with 77KwH battery that actually suffers from this loaded weight limit because a more energy dense battery from LG isn't available yet?

FUD debunked: NextMove lied. Tesla Germany specs updated:

 

[Artful Dodger]

I’m going to try buying Jan ‘21 $560 calls and selling June ‘21 $800 covered calls. My thought is that IV is likely to spike in December and drop below current levels after S&P inclusion is over.

The problem with that timing is that Tesla has a sequence of squibs lined up for Q1/Q2 2021 to rival Project Orion:

• Giga Shanghai commences Model Y production (instant doubling MiC output, but at lower cost than Model Y from Fremont)
• Telsa could easily retire all it's long term debt in Q1 with a Cap Raise for 1% (or less) dilution, resulting in a quarterly reduction in Interest Expense of ~$160M (which goes straight to the bottom line)
• If shortzes try any monkey business again like naked-shorting TSLA to crash the SP, then Tesla can simply issue another 2:1 Stock Dividend (mischief managed)
  
• Tesla almost certainly has to recognize its $1.9B Valuation Allowance, if not in 2020Q4 then by 2021Q1. This is a one-time shot of steroids to the balance sheet and income statement that is equivalent to yet-another free Gigafactory
• 2021 would be the right time frame (2-yrs in adv) to announce construction of a 'Model 2' factory in China (the repercussions for Tesla's 5-yr growth path are huge)
• Model Y assembly could begin in Berlin, then as soon as their Bty workshop is ready, those 4680 cells which were coming from Roadrunner/Fremont will become available for volume production of Semi and Plaid

TL;dr Yes, in a static enviroment, buying Jan 21 Calls and Selling Jun 21 Calls might be profitable, however:

TESLA IS NOT A STATIC ENVIRONMENT.

Cheers!

 

[Buckminster]

Factchecking is not often wrong. Suggesting here that the purchasing must be completed on the 21st rather than the 24th. Can anyone confirm? The 21st makes more sense to me.
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1330954449771257856

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1330965371126484992
Here, he is suggesting that 90%+ of float is not accounted for. I am not as optimistic on this - not something I say often. However, I am expecting a squeeze beyond $1k... 90% would be an infinite+ squeeze.

 

[Knightshade]

Question for those who might have worked "behind the scenes": if Tesla is to be added to the S&P 500 on 12/21 when will the actual buying by S&P Index Funds take place? Certainly not all during market hours on that Monday 12/21, right? I have heard or seen people talk about a 3- or 7-day window before that date but I haven't heard it from anyone who has been through it before. (I also know there was talk by S&P of adding in 2 separate tranches but the question of how many days the buying actually occurs before each reported date still stands). Thanks

It's completely variable from fund to fund based on the rules that fund has- generally explained in their prospectus.

Some funds have a +/- 3 days of inclusion window, some 7, some even more flexibility than that.

 

[Bet TSLA]

This is kinda stupid. It invites MM to target that option for expiration.

Only if the fantasy of MMs controlling anything is actually true.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Factchecking is not often wrong. Suggesting here that the purchasing must be completed on the 21st rather than the 24th. Can anyone confirm? The 21st makes more sense to me.
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1330954449771257856

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1330965371126484992
Here, he is suggesting that 90%+ of float is not accounted for. I am not as optimistic on this - not something I say often. However, I am expecting a squeeze beyond $1k... 90% would be an infinite+ squeeze.

Does this mean $TSLA SP is going to go up?

 

[mickificki]

I watched the video at 1.5x. He thinks he can make 20x he bought the contracts between $7-5

sorry what's $7-5?

 

[MP3Mike]

sorry what's $7-5?

He paid $5-7 for the ~3,500 January '21 700 calls he bought.

And as a note they are currently worth $17, so if he closed out today he would have been up ~$4.2M.

 

[juanmedina]

sorry what's $7-5?

He paid between $700-500 bucks for each January 700 call on Tuesday morning.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I hate these mornings. What's the point in leaving for work when I've just made a month's income in less than an hour?

Just 1 month?!

♫ O, du liber Augustin! ♫

Cheers!

 

[gabeincal]

I've been holding Jan '21 $800s deep in the red for a while.

Today, I've rolled these into Mar $700s. Therefore realizing a loss (for 2020 tax purposes), giving me 2 months more time and realizing higher % gains on days like today.

Sell 19 TSLA Jan 15 '21 $800 Call Executed @ $8.95

Buy 3 TSLA Mar 19 '21 $700 Call Executed @ $39.7

Just another step in learning this game and tweaking my portfolio for the risk I'm okay with.
This transaction also paid back about $5k of my long overdue margin...

With that, I can now move the portfolio to IBKR and reduce my margin cost by about 6% per year.