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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,608
21,264
Singapore
We are watching game theory in practice. Many funds etc. want or need to buy the stock. If those buyers were able to cooperate and trust each other they would all buy slowly so as not to make the price spike and cost them more money. That works until one of them starts to get a little greedy (think Prisoner's dilemma) so that guy buys a little faster hoping to jump the gun on his peers. That causes others to consider doing the same.

On top of that you have traders and speculators and a million other actors who also have an interest in increasing SP or suppressing it. My guess is that we see this "slow" daily increase until the damn breaks, then who knows what will happen.

Don't disagree with any of this, except for the fact that you use present tense. TSLA volume is way too low right now for any of this to be currently going on. If there are buyers, it's definitely not anybody big. I think the main reason for the rise from $410 to $550 has been some speculation, and mostly the fact that almost nobody is selling. TSLA is trading at ATHs like it's just another day at the office.
 

ammulder

'98 GS400 -> P3D+
Apr 11, 2019
932
3,019
Philly area
IMO, it doesn't really matter much, if at all, to an investor.

I'm not completely convinced of that. I think if they split into two tranches and are able to smooth out the buying, there's a better chance that the stock price rises and levels off, compared to an all-at-once scenario that's more likely to feature a big jump followed by a modest-if-not-sizeable drop. And surely there would then be various parties who attempt to turbocharge the drop. I don't think that kind of volatility is good for anyone -- seeing a giant drop is likely to also crank up the FUD (especially if it can be said to negatively impact the S&P performance), and convince otherwise good investors to stay away from this "risky" stock.

I guess if your "investor" time frame is long enough, all that would be lost in the noise.

Still, I feel like an "investor" yet I'd like to replace the minivan with a Model X and get a Solarglass Roof and etc. and a lot of chop in 2021 wouldn't do me any good (even if I was going to go for loans rather than actually selling shares).
 

Unpilot

Sell order in at $5999.99
Dec 2, 2017
4,627
35,012
A Coast
Don't disagree with any of this, except for the fact that you use present tense. TSLA volume is way too low right now for any of this to be currently going on. If there are buyers, it's definitely not anybody big. I think the main reason for the rise from $410 to $550 has been some speculation, and mostly the fact that almost nobody is selling. TSLA is trading at ATHs like it's just another day at the office.
Exactly...so what happens when a large volume of shares HAS to be bought at any price?
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
6,454
22,268
Philadelphia, PA
What's with the current premium on Jan 15 calls? I'm seeing around $116 for $450 strikes with SP $96 above them. You'd think even with IV only just rebounding you'd get more than a $20 premium per share 7.5 weeks out.
 
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Krugerrand

Is Cat
Jul 13, 2012
10,743
51,471
Tesla friendly place
Is it just MMD or some macro action now?

Edit- looks like MMD, so I just sold 137 shares and bought (5) 20 Jan 2023 900 strike LEAPS because, well, I dunno, sometimes I just feel like I should do a little something, even if it doesn't amount to much. Just missed the point of the falling knife by "this much", which is close enough for me.

This is fun. Too bad I didn't have this when I was young. Gotta find a way to make the world a little better place with it now somehow.

So antsy; too funny.

This is me still doing nothing and making a mint, all before I even put my pants on to greet the day.

We all need to work on some inner peace.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
6,454
22,268
Philadelphia, PA
I'm not completely convinced of that. I think if they split into two tranches and are able to smooth out the buying, there's a better chance that the stock price rises and levels off, compared to an all-at-once scenario that's more likely to feature a big jump followed by a modest-if-not-sizeable drop. And surely there would then be various parties who attempt to turbocharge the drop. I don't think that kind of volatility is good for anyone -- seeing a giant drop is likely to also crank up the FUD (especially if it can be said to negatively impact the S&P performance), and convince otherwise good investors to stay away from this "risky" stock.

I guess if your "investor" time frame is long enough, all that would be lost in the noise.

Still, I feel like an "investor" yet I'd like to replace the minivan with a Model X and get a Solarglass Roof and etc. and a lot of chop in 2021 wouldn't do me any good (even if I was going to go for loans rather than actually selling shares).
Most people here don't put "investor" in quotations, that's the difference in sentiment. People here are buying dips and holding above 80% of their position through at least 2025. Therefore a 30% turbocharged drop is generally welcomed, so long as it doesn't interfere with options plays.

TSLA is far far far beyond any FUD attack or 30% drop in SP having an impact on day-to-day operations, let alone the mission itself.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
6,454
22,268
Philadelphia, PA
Exactly...so what happens when a large volume of shares HAS to be bought at any price?
This is all well and good except for the fact that "everyone" knows it. MM's and big traders know far more precisely what's going to happen and more importantly where things are in the process timing-wise. Yes, there should be an "immovable object" event at some point, but when everybody knows about it the variance goes way up. Literally anything could happen. Let us not forget, this game is at it's core is rigged.
 

Tim S

Supporting Member
Feb 5, 2019
777
7,528
Albany NY
Actuall


It sure is.

I likely wouldn't even be invested as heavy as I am into Tesla if not for me test driving a M3 in early 2019. It impressed me so much that Tesla was all I could think about. Soon after that I started accumulating shares. LOTS of shares.

I haven't bought a Tesla car yet but I will buy a MY within a year or two. I could get it now but I'm going to wait to test drive a Cybertruck first, just to be sure I wouldn't rather own that!
My advice... buy a Model Y now (especially if you are currently driving an ICE). It will be a while before you can test drive a Cybertruck. The Y will hold its value better than just about any car. It will be the best car you've ever owned. You will save a ton on gas. You can always trade it in for a Cybertruck when they are available.
 

tcoombes

Supporting Member
Jan 22, 2018
1,048
3,067
Northern California
Got an invite today from my financial institution to participa/te in their "Fully Paid Lending" programme. Meaning, lending them my shares to use for options. Can recall at anytime. Paid monthly split income % 60-40 with institution. Percentages much higher than I thought. Does anyone participate in this? pros cons?

They won’t tell you how much income you can expect from lending shares to the shorts. No guarantees if they will rent your shares or not. I got the same offer and I quizzed them about it out of curiosity, but no solid answers. Anyway, they could not pay me enough to assist the shorts.
 

JBRR

Member
Dec 13, 2015
959
19,234
UK
upload_2020-11-24_16-45-51.png


Source: EV-Volumes - The Electric Vehicle World Sales Database
 

BlackS

Supporting Member
Feb 20, 2018
2,095
17,020
USA
Friend from vegas who is all in on $TSLA after i recommended him to buy at $700 texted me today. He ran into a dad that used to coach his son's baseball team with him (Ironically, he is a financial advisor :) ) Told him that he put all his eggs in $TSLA at $700 and the dude said "Congrats, now take those gains and put it in something stable for your future" I told him, "Next time you see him, tell him to take his fiduciary responsibility and stick it where the sun don't shine!!"
 

GrandEnigma

Member
Jul 28, 2020
132
909
NJ
My advice... buy a Model Y now (especially if you are currently driving an ICE). It will be a while before you can test drive a Cybertruck. The Y will hold its value better than just about any car. It will be the best car you've ever owned. You will save a ton on gas. You can always trade it in for a Cybertruck when they are available.

I did exactly this. I have been holding Tesla since 2011/12, just took delivery of my Y (first Tesla, but not first EV) a few weeks ago which I intend to trade in when my Cybertruck is ready in 1-2yrs.
 

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