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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

CanadaEV

Member
Dec 12, 2014
305
1,522
Canada
Even though December 21 is “the day“, the way I understand it is that the funds have some leeway around that date.
This could mean that some of them will be expecting a big drop, and waiting to do their buying then. That could backfire for them and we could have some extended upward pressure beyond the 21st.
If it does work out that way, it could moderate the anti-climatic fall in SP because the time boundary would not be as sharp
 

ZeApelido

Active Member
Jun 1, 2016
2,717
21,068
The Peninsula, CA
Now, regarding Euro printing presses - I'm not going to share pillow talk, however I happen to share my pillow with someone deep in the boiler room of that topic....

OMG Angela Merkel is on this forum!

Hi Angela!

3B42E87500000578-0-image-a-46_1481437147799.jpg
 
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pz1975

Supporting Member
Aug 30, 2013
1,401
7,542
Langley, BC, Canada
Note that while IV will increase based on the expected SP jump tomorrow, it will still take a number of days to get up to what it will eventually get too (because the SP will no longer be stagnating). This is key for loading up for the possible squeeze as there will be a disconnect between the actual IV and the eventual IV until it does catch up. This will allow call options to be purchased cheaper than they will eventually be (irrespective of the stock price of course).

I used this same disconnect to my advantage back in January as TSLA left its 5-year range and began climbing into the 400s/500s - the IV took 1-2 weeks to really start to climb. I loaded up on way OTM calls for super-cheap and ended up with a net 40-bagger on hundreds of calls.

Long story short: I am going to buy a sh*tload of way OTM calls for December and January tomorrow morning before the IV starts to really climb high (likely will get to 100-120 again in the next couple weeks).
Update to my call purchase strategy for this rise I started last Tuesday and added to Friday (quoted above from last Monday). The calls are up around net 350-400% at this point and I haven't sold any yet except for some 550s expiring this week. I am going to hold tight to these and still except the SP to get above 650-750 by December 21. If the SP dips or stagnates Friday again like last week, I will be buying more calls with the expectation that this is artificial capping. I will eventually also need to sell my Dec 4-18 calls and roll them into Dec 31-Jan 15.

In terms of my exit strategy, I will plan to keep the bulk of my position until on or just before December 21. I think the squeeze will signal itself to be over when we get one of those big sudden 8-10% drop days like in February. That will signal me to close these positions. I will also likely sell a bunch of way OTM covered calls when the squeeze appears over. Remember that when/if TSLA drops quickly, the IV also spikes so you can sell those covered OTM calls for crazy high prices even as the SP is dropping.
 

ZeApelido

Active Member
Jun 1, 2016
2,717
21,068
The Peninsula, CA
The sad hilarity of $2e6 gainz is reality that I currently live in the SF Bay Area peninsula, aka the most expensive place outside of Manhattan.

I mean, one could purchase this waterfront property in Tampa Bay

Or even near the beach in Malibu

But no here, congratulations on your amazing stock investment, now you can buy this.

I'm gonna go have a gin&tonic.

P.S. My wife just said " **** Menlo Park"
 
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Nocturnal

Supporting Member
Aug 23, 2018
6,090
30,364
In the middle
Forgot I don't have any cash and the cleaning lady is about to roll in. Y'all better be dropping mad TSLA cash on these folks this holiday season!
I'm beginning to go over my year end charitable donations. It's been such a great year for me financially I'll feel like a heel if I don't greatly ramp that up.
 
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MikeAtkinson

Supporting Member
Sep 9, 2019
314
4,745
UK
This question keeps coming up. So let's see if I can help to either clarify or further muddy the waters.

There are three kinds of funds in the world:
1. Index funds, which (in the context of this discussion) track the S&P 500 index as exactly as possible. These funds have no discretion about what and how many shares they buy/sell of stocks in the index, and only a very little bit of discretion about the timing; when a new stock is added, or one dropped, or at the quarterly rebalancing, the company that owns the intellectual property of the index (About Us | S&P Dow Jones Indices) tells them what they need to buy/sell, and gives them a window of 7 trading days (3 before, the day, and 3 after) around the official date to do the necessary trading. (TSLA is special; they've never before given this much notice, or even hinted at doing two phased adjustment periods. That's because TSLA is by far the biggest first-time entry.)

2. Funds which are benchmarked against the S&P 500 index. I used to be a trustee of a $2B 401K plan, and every quarter, Fidelity (who managed it for us) would come in and show us all the various funds that members could invest in, like Vanguard funds, targeted retirement age funds, etc. All of these funds' performance would be charted against some "benchmark" so that we could judge whether the fund was being managed well, was fiscally responsible, and so on. Some (but by no means all) of these funds used the performance of the S&P 500 index as their comparison. But they had flexibility about whether or how much of individual stocks they could hold. I'll give an example: ESGV is an ETF (exchange traded fund) that mirrors one that is often offered by pension/401k plans. It is basically the S&P 500 but with a focus on social and environmental responsibility, so it doesn't hold oil/gas stocks, gun stocks, and so on (and BTW slightly outperforms the S&P index). These funds obviously deviate from the exact S&P holdings, and exercise discretion about when to trade components, but they are still going to be compared to the S&P 500 when they are being judged, so they have to be somewhat conservative. They generally could maybe hold a little of a stock that wasn't in the S&P 500, but placing a big bet on such a stock would cause a big problem if it went down. Conversely, now that TSLA is being added to the index, they pretty much have to buy in, because if TSLA does well, and they aren't holding it, they will underperform the index. So they do have to buy eventually, but can choose when to do it. These are the guys running up the price now.

3. Funds that don't care about the S&P 500 index. They will generally be benchmarked against something else. This includes funds like the ARK ETFs. Some of them will want to buy TSLA just because it will be viewed as a "safer" investment now than it was two weeks ago. Some were already buying TSLA. Some still won't (like the ones that track the oil&gas industry).

So, some of the #2 funds are already buying, some will be waiting, perhaps because of internal guidelines or slow decision making processes, and even the ones buying will be trying to do it as slowly as possible so as to not run up the market. The #1 funds can't buy yet; exactly when they can start will be determined by the index when they announce when/whether the tranches are happening, but the whole purchase window will close on the 24th, three days after the 21st, official inclusion date.

There is 9,465 billion direct foreign investment in US stocks, is this included in the above categories or is that extra? Do they have extra incentive to buy TSLA?
 
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Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
8,323
101,968
Canada
What are the chances the S&P 500 tracking funds buy call options now and choose to exercise them during the buying window to lock in their price?
Here is Call "Open Interest" x 100 (to represent # shares, not Contracts) through Christmas:
  1. Nov 27: 20,195,400
  2. Dec 04: 6,284,200
  3. Dec 11: 5,280,100
  4. Dec 18: 24,616,400
  5. Dec 24: 4,352,300
  6. Dec 31: 2,892,500
We can see quickly that there is only elevated levels of shares subject to being 'Called' on two dates: this Friday Nov 27, and the 'triple-witching' 3rd Friday in December, the 18th.

So (quick'n'dirty analysis), let's say the normal number of shares at stake on a Friday would be ~5M then we can say that about 15M + 20M = 35M shares MIGHT be subject to transfer of ownership due to the mass exercising of Call contracts on those two dates.

That's not enough: even when the share price was around $408 the S&P Committee was estimating $51B of required purchases by Index Funds, given their 1.01% estimated 'weight' for TSLA in the S&P NDX.

So 35M shares won't cover the TSLA share needs of Index Funds:
  • even at present prices ($555/sh) that's less than $20B in TSLA shares
  • S&P could decide on a HIGHER weight than 1.01% for TSLA given this runup
  • at a minimum, we'd expect at least $30B more buying will be required
  • req'd amnt could also be much higher given:
    • 35% SP runup since S&P announcement
    • speculators and 'momo' traders front-running the S&P addition
But I'm not the only one who says the SP could runup 100+% (I'm just the first...) :p

Motley Fool . Tesla Stock Could Surge 104% to $1,000, According to This Analyst . 20 hours ago

Cheers!
 

Zaxxon

Supporting Member
Dec 11, 2012
4,637
21,258
Colorado
Updating post from Feb 2020.

Who else feels a moral obligation to buy new Teslas . . . as stocking stuffers?

This year, and this quarter in particular, I think will give new meaning to the traditional TMC 'end-of-quarter toss a coin to your Witcher' purchases.

I'm beginning to go over my year end charitable donations. It's been such a great year for me financially I'll feel like a heel if I don't greatly ramp that up.

Absolutely. One TMC thread with a small option, and invite link. Hopefully many of us are planning to ramp up the charitable giving as we close out this year. Who would have thought in January (TSLA $86.05) or March COVID-teenth (TSLA $72.24) we'd be ending as we are?
 

ammulder

'98 GS400 -> P3D+
Apr 11, 2019
932
3,019
Philly area
I'm hoping this window is as wide as you think, it should be. Just worried about what the real traders are doing in the background right now. IV should be maybe highest ever by then.

I'm wondering if that IV part is really true. According to the Papafox thread, the IV has gone from 55 to 73 since the S&P announcement. Elsewhere, I've seen the 1-yr IV range quoted as roughly 30-150. If the vertical climb in the stock price in the last week has only induced the IV to climb from 55 to 73, what on Earth would it take to move it to ~150?!?
 

Spacep0d

Member
Apr 20, 2019
981
1,102
Santa Clarita, CA
The sad hilarity of $2e6 gainz is reality that I currently live in the SF Bay Area peninsula, aka the most expensive place outside of Manhattan.

I mean, one could purchase this waterfront property in Tampa Bay

Or even near the beach in Malibu

But no here, congratulations on your amazing stock investment, now you can buy this.

I'm gonna go have a gin&tonic.

P.S. My wife just said "****Menlo Park"

Being in tech myself, one silver lining to the pandemic has been to demonstrate beyond doubt that people CAN work from home effectively and efficiently, and yes, that meeting COULD have just been an email! :)

I agree, * Menlo Park and overpriced Silicon Valley real estate. :D Stay long and move to Idaho if working-from-home is a long-term option.
 

pz1975

Supporting Member
Aug 30, 2013
1,401
7,542
Langley, BC, Canada
I'm wondering if that IV part is really true. According to the Papafox thread, the IV has gone from 55 to 73 since the S&P announcement. Elsewhere, I've seen the 1-yr IV range quoted as roughly 30-150. If the vertical climb in the stock price in the last week has only induced the IV to climb from 55 to 73, what on Earth would it take to move it to ~150?!?
The IV increases with large and fast SP moves. It also takes time to climb as there is a delay usually. I think it will continue to climb in the next weeks as the SP continues to move. The time it could really spike is if there is a sudden spike up (less likely with the steady movement we are getting) or spike down (more likely at some point when traders deem the squeeze to be over and want to get out). That February 4 day when it suddenly crashed I remember the IV being crazy high like 140s.
 

CHGolferJim

Supporting Member
Jan 28, 2014
1,082
408
Chapel Hill, NC
I should have elaborated to my comfort level of typically a 50% increase in SP over 4-6 weeks as my risk tolerance. I may have to explore weeklies more in depth. Good luck. I do like that weeklies will tend to reduce the potential damage that a long drawn out rise can cause. Just wish the IV was higher.


I would suggest you do. I started doing weekly covered calls with 25% of my Roth shares (in other words, an incremental 40% to the core shares) and have a >50% return since August 4th = 150% annualized (premiums+recognized gains/amount invested). This was formerly my fixed income allocation, so I’m pleased as punch. I’ve misfired with overly conservative or overly aggressive targets a few times, but the return is almost equal to the return of HODL’ing long shares. The weekly strike prices are picked on feel for potential appreciation and assignment vs. getting a reasonable premium. I’m not concerned about assignment, actually I want some, if that happens, I just reload. I look at this as a cautious options strategy, I don’t understand calls and puts well enough to try that yet, but I bought the book!
 
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theschnell

Member
Oct 27, 2014
839
3,136
Calhoun, GA
Here is Call "Open Interest" x 100 (to represent # shares, not Contracts) through Christmas:
  1. Nov 27: 20,195,400
  2. Dec 04: 6,284,200
  3. Dec 11: 5,280,100
  4. Dec 18: 24,616,400
  5. Dec 24: 4,352,300
  6. Dec 31: 2,892,500
We can see quickly that there is only elevated levels of shares subject to being 'Called' on two dates: this Friday Nov 27, and the 'triple-witching' 3rd Friday in December, the 18th.

So (quick'n'dirty analysis), let's say the normal number of shares at stake on a Friday would be ~5M then we can say that about 15M + 20M = 35M shares MIGHT be subject to transfer of ownership due to the mass exercising of Call contracts on those two dates.

That's not enough: even when the share price was around $408 the S&P Committee was estimating $51B of required purchases by Index Funds, given their 1.01% estimated 'weight' for TSLA in the S&P NDX.

So 35M shares won't cover the TSLA share needs of Index Funds:
  • even at present prices ($555/sh) that's less than $20B in TSLA shares
  • S&P could decide on a HIGHER weight than 1.01% for TSLA given this runup
  • at a minimum, we'd expect at least $30B more buying will be required
  • req'd amnt could also be much higher given:
    • 35% SP runup since S&P announcement
    • speculators and 'momo' traders front-running the S&P addition
But I'm not the only one who says the SP could runup 100+% (I'm just the first...) :p

Motley Fool . Tesla Stock Could Surge 104% to $1,000, According to This Analyst . 20 hours ago

Cheers!

So what you're saying is that we're going to get another buying opportunity this Friday most likely? Similar to last week? And then off to the races again?
 
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Reactions: EnzoXYZ

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
8,666
63,787
Maple Falls, WA
The sad hilarity of $2e6 gainz is reality that I currently live in the SF Bay Area peninsula, aka the most expensive place outside of Manhattan.

I mean, one could purchase this waterfront property in Tampa Bay

Or even near the beach in Malibu

But no here, congratulations on your amazing stock investment, now you can buy this.

I'm gonna go have a gin&tonic.

P.S. My wife just said " **** Menlo Park"

But the Palo Alto property looks like you could put a hot plate and dorm fridge in the garage and run a garden hose out there and rent it for $4K/month. No way could you do that in Tampa Bay! ;)
 

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