Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

Testing Autopilot/FSD's ability to drive blind - 12:49 - AIDRIVR

Worth watching this. Radar seems to be able to pickup not only kerbs etc. but even painted lines all on it's own! Amazing redundancy.

 

[BlackS]

Being in tech myself, one silver lining to the pandemic has been to demonstrate beyond doubt that people CAN work from home effectively and efficiently, and yes, that meeting COULD have just been an email!

I agree, * Menlo Park and overpriced Silicon Valley real estate. Stay long and move to Idaho if working-from-home is a long-term option.

Being in tech myself, one silver lining to the pandemic has been to demonstrate beyond doubt that people CAN work from home effectively and efficiently --- except for TMC members on days like today

 

[Lycanthrope]

So firms that have S&P Index Funds can purchase TSLA with free funds they have available and then on the date of the inclusion sell to their own fund from this holding account?

And if you're a holder of that fund doing the front-running, how would you feel about not making the market profit on those trades? Grounds for law-suits IMO

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA +6.4%

Again, all-time intraday and closing highs.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1331213254744440833
So Factchecking seems convinced on $0.50 per kWh. I commented here on another possible inconsistency regarding anodes.

It was 2am - Ambien or re-writing of battery storage history?

 

[ggr]

There is 9,465 billion direct foreign investment in US stocks, is this included in the above categories or is that extra? Do they have extra incentive to buy TSLA?

I don't know. I was looking only at the S&P 500 related funds. To the extent that those foreign investors pay attention to the S&P 500 index, maybe, I guess?

 

[traxila]

So what you're saying is that we're going to get another buying opportunity this Friday most likely? Similar to last week? And then off to the races again?

History likes to repeat itself. Until it doesn't, of course...

Where are we at with another 4 weeks of this?

Wow.

 

[Curt Renz]

My Brokerage's Newsfeed - this afternoon:

CFRA REITERATES STRONG BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF TESLA, INC. 1:43 pm ET November 24, 2020 (CFRA) Print We increase our 12-month price target by $100 to $650, implying a '22 P/E of 113x. Our adjusted EPS estimates remain $2.30 for '20, $3.50 for '21, and $5.75 for '22. TSLA shares have been on a tear since last Monday, when the S&P Dow Jones Index Committee announced plans to add the stock to the S&P 500 Index, effective December 21. We think TSLA's positive momentum is likely to continue in the near term, aided by the robust tailwind of index fund buying. Importantly, the ongoing run-up means that TSLA's cost of capital advantage relative to peers continues to widen, which is critical as the company continues to build new factories and deliver on its goal of increasing annual auto volumes by 40x over the next decade (from ~500K units this year to 20M by 2030). In our view, TSLA shares are also benefiting from expectations that EVs will be heavily subsidized under a Biden administration, through the proposed expansion of tax credits, consumer rebates, and aggressive nationwide charging station build-out.

 

[BlackS]

Can someone please tell me why we are down AH??????

Edit: Never mind .... back in the green again

 

[Lycanthrope]

*must* *not* *google *cats* *in* *pants!*

So hard to maintain work focus on days like this.
And there have been many days like this lately!

Cats in bomber-jackets?

 

[JBRR]

 

[mejojo]

TSLA +6.4%

Again, all-time intraday and closing highs.

Mod: that sexist meme photo is henceforth banned. --ggr.

 

[ggr]

This year, and this quarter in particular, I think will give new meaning to the traditional TMC 'end-of-quarter toss a coin to your Witcher' purchases.

Absolutely. One TMC thread with a small option, and invite link. Hopefully many of us are planning to ramp up the charitable giving as we close out this year. Who would have thought in January (TSLA $86.05) or March COVID-teenth (TSLA $72.24) we'd be ending as we are?

Well, off topic for this thread, but since we're talking about charitable donations, I'll remind everyone of the tax advantage of donating appreciated stock. The rest of this post is from a letter written to the board and large donors of a 501c3 charity I was involved in. It was written a few years ago, but after the last tax changes, so as far as I know it's still correct.

Suppose for a moment that you want to give some money to your favorite 501c3 (that is, tax deductible) charity. For sake of argument and easy calculation, let’s say $1000. Let’s also assume that you make enough money that you’re in the top tax bracket, live in California, and have some of it invested in stocks, and that you itemize your deductions. The IRS encourages people to give to charities, to the extent that they allow you to deduct that donation from your taxable income. So next year, when you file your taxes, the IRS/FTB will actually give you back about $505(*) of that money. They actually paid more to your charity than you did!

But that $1000 had to come from somewhere. If you take it out of your work pay cheque, the IRS already deducted the same amount, so really when the dust settles it just means you paid your tax to the charity instead of the IRS and California. A more worthy cause, anyway.

If you have stocks that you’ve held for more than one year, and sell them to raise the money, the profits from the sale are deemed Long Term Capital Gains, and are taxed at a lower rate (20%). At this point I need to use a concrete example. At the end of 2012 I bought some Intel stock for about $20 per share. Last week (2016 when I originally wrote this) Intel was about $33 per share. If I sell 30 of these shares of Intel, I raise $990 cash to give to AC… errr, ummm, charity. Of that money, some of it is just my own capital back, but $13 per share is profit: that’s $390 profit taxed at about 27%, call it $105 tax. So you’ve paid a lot less tax, but the IRS still lets you deduct the whole amount for the full benefit.

So far everything I have said about the tax you pay is just standard. But the IRS likes charities and has an even better benefit. If I just give the stock directly to the charity, without selling it first, the charity will send me a letter saying that the value of the stock was $990, and I still get to deduct that whole amount from next year’s income. But I never sold the stock, and don’t owe any capital gains tax! So I’m $105 better off than selling the stock and then donating the money. In case you’re wondering, this is perfectly legitimate and was the intent of the law. In fact, the 2017 tax law just increased the amount of charitable donations you’re allowed to deduct to 60% of your total income.

My example of Intel is fine enough, but if you happen to have some year old vintage TSLA in your portfolio, the advantage to you of giving the stock instead of cash becomes huge. Basically the more profit you are sitting on in the stock, the better off you are donating rather than selling. If you didn’t make a profit on the stock, though, you are conversely better off selling it to take the capital loss as a deduction too.

Donating stock is a little bit more of a hassle than just writing a cheque, but the development staff of the charity will happily help you with the numbers you need. Then just fax a form to your stockbroker, and it will happen. It usually takes a week or two, so don’t wait to do it at the end of December. Also don't forget to specify the stock with the greatest capital gain, and make sure that they transfer what you tell them (Looking at you, ETrade!). All stocks look alike to me, but not to the IRS.

*: Approximate numbers based on current (2017 after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) tax rates, including CA state tax. I am not an accountant.

 

[Lycanthrope]

I think we owe the S&P committee an ovation for waiting until November instead of doing the smart thing in August. On a personal level, their delay allowed me to learn about options and make some huge decisions last week. I sweated it out over the weekend; yesterday's open was such a huge relief. Since then has been ecstasy.

At the moment, I'm up $650K since Friday's close (almost $400K so far just today). This is so unreal I can't believe it's happening. 8 bagger since March 19th.

Need advice from some of you call option veterans on when to sell the 15Jan2021C650 chunk. Right now, I'm thinking definitely no sooner than 14Dec. My real question is: When should I be concerned about the value going down as the expiration date approaches. Never done this before.

Also have a small 04Dec2020C545 that is up 75%. Thinking of selling quickly if there is a strong opening next Monday.

Advice appreciated.

With calls it's always better to leave a bit of money on the table than to throw the lot into an incinerator, plus you'll sleep better at night.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm wondering if that IV part is really true. According to the Papafox thread, the IV has gone from 55 to 73 since the S&P announcement. Elsewhere, I've seen the 1-yr IV range quoted as roughly 30-150. If the vertical climb in the stock price in the last week has only induced the IV to climb from 55 to 73, what on Earth would it take to move it to ~150?!?

I don't know how IV is calculated, but there's definitely a big time function within the equation. A week or so of gains won't get us to where we were post-split, especially after 2.5 months of absolute flatness and low volume. But the up and down craziness I think we're in for plus the inclusion spike just might get us a higher IV that ever before. It takes time to build, and as other have noted it'll keep building on the back side of any major inclusion spike.

 

[ZeApelido]

But the Palo Alto property looks like you could put a hot plate and dorm fridge in the garage and run a garden hose out there and rent it for $4K/month. No way could you do that in Tampa Bay!

Now I know you are a wise man.

 

[RobStark]

New all time high and passing $500B in Market Cap calls out for reposting celebratory meme.

 

[ZeApelido]

Being in tech myself, one silver lining to the pandemic has been to demonstrate beyond doubt that people CAN work from home effectively and efficiently --- except for TMC members on days like today

Meh I worked just as inefficiently in the office on days like today.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Worth watching this. Radar seems to be able to pickup not only kerbs etc. but even painted lines all on it's own! Amazing redundancy.

Probably more that it is using map data. An AI like this will spew out its best "guess" even when cameras are blocked, it would probably even give road outlines even with no sensor input.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Can someone please tell me why we are down AH??????

Edit: Never mind .... back in the green again

Sharp dips after-hours are usually just a big call order executing. Most charts flatten it out within a few minutes.