Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Featsbeyond50]

I'm locked and loaded and ready for a squeeze. Bring it on!

Are there still people short Tesla?

 

[Johan]

Are there still people short Tesla?

If some investors thought Tesla was over valued this summer when the market cap was $190 Billion imagine how over valued they should think it is now! Logically, if you were short then you should be going all in now (going short all in that is). I say bring it

Then again maybe they're just in to picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

If some investors thought Tesla was over valued this summer when the market cap was $190 Billion imagine how over valued they should think it is now! Logically, if you were short then you should be going all in now (going short all in that is). I say bring it

Then again maybe they're just in to picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.

But with S&P inclusion... pure madness. Maybe people have passed away with open positions?

 

[Runarbt]

But with S&P inclusion... pure madness. Maybe people have passed away with open positions?

I rated this as "funny" - but its rather sad to think about.

 

[Johan]

But with S&P inclusion... pure madness. Maybe people have passed away with open positions?

I agree, madness. If someone was short Tesla and then got Covid-19 and died, or died of some other cause, then yikes - when those left behind get to the business of settling the estate they might be deep i the hole! I would think the brokers have safe guards against these types of situations. Short positions always need some sort of safety or hedge, it could be owning call options, having cash in your account or using other equity as margin.

 

[Krugerrand]

While the other car companies do have to reimburse Dealers for warranty work, Tesla still has a cost of maintaining their own service centers too. They do avoid duplication of certain jobs other car dealers have such as additional administration, but facilities costs and most of the employees costs are similar. One of the biggest advantages that Tesla has in their business model is they don't spend on advertising like others. They do have a budget for marketing but it is tiny compared to what others budget for marketing.

As Tesla has more cars on the road their number of service centers will need to increase as the turn around time gets longer and longer. I got a tour of my local Tesla center and a couple of things impressed me in a negative way- The parts inventory was tiny. They said they have to order in parts which is a delay that dealers like Ford and Toyota don't have. The delays at Tesla can run 10 times what other dealers have. 2 years ago there were an average of 6 Teslas in the parking lot every day waiting on parts for repair with service tickets hanging on the mirrors. Today, the waiting lot is packed with 4 times as many. Most other dealers here have a huge warehouse of parts plus there are 4 to 5 dealers in the area that can supply with a runner van to move parts throughout the day. One day soon Tesla will need to increase it's service centers and the capability of each one to handle the load.

I once owned a Ford Escape and it was being called in for a recall almost monthly. Most were small and non-emergency. My Leaf has had two major warranty repairs. The forward camera failed and a battery cell shorted. Total wait time was 11 days and they gave us a loaner. I wonder how long a similar repair would take at the Tesla SC. I have a friend who bought a Model Y that arrived in June and it had serious body issues he wanted corrected. I think it was mid July before some of the parts came in. Then his car was in the shop for a month and he was talked into compromise that they fixed it as best they could.

1. Tesla parts inventory doesn’t need to be as large because EV and I imagine quantity and quality of SC parts inventory would/could be based on how smart the parts manager is; for instance if I was the manager I would try and anticipate the parts I need on hand given historical data for my area (what tends to need replacing) and how quickly I can normally get the parts. You know, like do my job well.

2. Just had Tesla service out yesterday to my home to replace a part; took 15 minutes. No muss, no fuss. I did have to put my pants on to pull it out of the garage and put it back in the garage. That was a bummer.

 

[redan]

I did have to put my pants on to pull it out of the garage and put it back in the garage. That was a bummer.

Sounds like a wasted opportunity to use Summon while still pantless.

 

[MartinAustin]

I'm going to start posting periodic "keep it rational people" comments before we get too crazy.

It's super likely that further appreciation is coming, but that doesn't mean traders and MM's won't let the SP run up a bit then sell calls and short the stock before inclusion. These people don't care about Tesla as much as we think, most of them don't care at all. They simply want to make money.

This ultra-transparent opportunity based on what amounts to mandatory buying in a very well defined window is open for ALL MARKET PARTICIPANTS to leverage. These guys will take those 32 days to maximize their profits in whatever manner works. Logically that means there will be some pretty big swings both up and down.

None of us should be surprised to be sitting right at $520(or lower) on December 16th when the theoretical buying window opens. No one is selling.....but who exactly is going to be buying at $570 next week? We could be ripe yet again for manipulation with the goal of taking weekly call buyer's premiums. My guess is more like $650 on Dec 16th, but you get the point.

Agreed. I put that other post together because I can't believe TSLA is going to keep climbing the way it has done over the last 6 days. Maybe we just get lucky.

 

[UkNorthampton]

1. Tesla parts inventory doesn’t need to be as large because EV and I imagine quantity and quality of SC parts inventory would/could be based on how smart the parts manager is; for instance if I was the manager I would try and anticipate the parts I need on hand given historical data for my area (what tends to need replacing) and how quickly I can normally get the parts. You know, like do my job well.

2. Just had Tesla service out yesterday to my home to replace my broken charge port door; took 15 minutes. No muss, no fuss. I did have to put my pants on to pull it out of the garage and put it back in the garage. That was a bummer.

1 - Also, fewer models/model years. Tesla do change parts often, but hopefully so new part is backwards compatible.

GM/VW harping on about 20 models by 2025. Often lowish volume (20-30k per model/year). Why not fewer models and more cars overall (economies of scale, simplicity of producing a few models)


2 - pants (I assume trousers) - optional depending on local sensibilities. Tesla service, how did they get to you? Ferry, bridge, hovercraft full of eels or your own subsea Boring Company tunnel.

 

[Krugerrand]

Sounds like a wasted opportunity to use Summon while still pantless.

I considered it for a second. Then I remembered the pandemic forcing my neighbors and children to be at home, so I closed the door, returned to my closet, and selected my favorite pair of lounging pajama bottoms.

I want to take a moment to thank all the participants who have recently rushed in to ever increasingly talk of selling some TSLA stock during this SP rise. This does at least one thing; ensure that history repeats itself. And I for one never like to miss a good chucklefest, while growing the bank.

 

[Krugerrand]

1 - Also, fewer models/model years. Tesla do change parts often, but hopefully so new part is backwards compatible.

GM/VW harping on about 20 models by 2025. Often lowish volume (20-30k per model/year). Why not fewer models and more cars overall (economies of scale, simplicity of producing a few models)


2 - pants (I assume trousers) - optional depending on local sensibilities. Tesla service, how did they get to you? Ferry, bridge, hovercraft full of eels or your own subsea Boring Company tunnel.

1. Good point.

2. Unicorn.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Structural battery is going to be a nice step forward. I wonder if it will mean that having different pack capacities will not happen in models using structural pack or if this will lead to empty battery cans (and the adhesive between the cans) being used in the lower range packs to keep the structural performance the same (or more similar). This is not an issue for S and X but might be linked to the comments regarding there not being an SR version of the Y.

 

[Cobbler]

Second price increase in a month period for the Belgium Model 3 SR+ ....
Was at 48800€ November, 25 days ago increase to 49490€ and now 50490€. Currency adjustment?

 

[Prunesquallor]

I did have to put my pants on to pull it out of the garage and put it back in the garage. That was a bummer.

Prude.

 

[amolina]

Here is to some hopium that we get some short term buying opportunities.
Tesla files recall for 9,136 2015-2016 Model X over adhesive issue: NHTSA . I hope the media picks this up

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observer

Free advertising and an opening in the clouds for Tesla’s new movie, “Long Way to Catch-Up.” Should also keep TSLA green.

Summer of ‘67 I drove a Corvette from Chicago to Hawthorne for as neighbor. Not as good a ride as my X (Tesla you goofball).

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Second price increase in a month period for the Belgium Model 3 SR+ ....
Was at 48800€ November, 25 days ago increase to 49490€ and now 50490€. Currency adjustment?
View attachment 611709

The exchange rate has been steady and even trending upwards a bit, so that is not the reason for the price hike. And it's also contrary to the fact that this is a MIC car, which presumably costs less to build. Conclusion: demand in Q4 must be off the charts.

 

[JBRR]

Massive pile of economic data coming in 15 minutes

 

[UkNorthampton]

Structural battery is going to be a nice step forward. I wonder if it will mean that having different pack capacities will not happen in models using structural pack or if this will lead to empty battery cans (and the adhesive between the cans) being used in the lower range packs to keep the structural performance the same (or more similar). This is not an issue for S and X but might be linked to the comments regarding there not being an SR version of the Y.

Empty cell cans for increased amphibious performance (lighter than glue, may help strength/stiffness having something). Longer term, I think 3/Y may be Nickel LR/Perf and SR+ is LFP 4680, so similar number of cells but less density. After smaller form (M2?), 3/Y may be premium market - all with minimum range that is market leading and people know it.

There are so many options however and only Tesla have the stats for each market, over time and I trust them to get it right more than I could. Also, each factory has its own timeline and variants. They will probably leapfrog each other over time as tech improves and upgrade cycles occur.

 

[Tslynk67]

S&P decision announcement on 11/30. Is it after hours or pre or during market hours?

1. Is there certainty on the time on 11/30 when the announcement of the decision would be made?
2. Are you guys preparing with some protections for surprises post the announcements?

Like what, the S&P announcement "Well, we've had a look at it and have decided to change our minds..."