Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Brian121]

There are talk here about possible top at or close to 12/21.

Don't forget last year at this time I believe there was a positive earning beat, and then stock started to take off, but some people here thought that it would settle down when the weak Q1 2020 come and started the talk about bail, only to see the MIC Model 3 delivery in January 2020 and Elon's goofy dance in Shanghai, and the stock never looked back.

History is a comedy, because it's very likely that China MIC Model Y will start delivery on 1/7/2021, the pass away anniversary of Nikola Tesla and Elon could show his improved dance skill again in Shanghai.

I don't believe for sure that TSLA will shoot through the roof from January on ward in 2021 like this year, because I don't know. Instead, what I would like to contribute to this forum is that the talk about the stock will fall after 12/21 is premature.

Nobody knows how the market will behave is what I would like to advocate.

 

[BlackS]

We all know that $TSLA doesn't just go up in a straight line...what we do know is that the longer it bases...the higher it goes on the next move up. Even if it does go down, it recovers eventually and makes another ATH. Congrats to all longs! Enjoy the roller coaster everyone!

 

[Mo City]

There are talk here about possible top at or close to 12/21.

Don't forget last year at this time I believe there was a positive earning beat, and then stock started to take off, but some people here thought that it would settle down when the weak Q1 2020 come and started the talk about bail, only to see the MIC Model 3 delivery in January 2020 and Elon's goofy dance in Shanghai, and the stock never looked back.

History is a comedy, because it's very likely that China MIC Model Y will start delivery on 1/7/2021, the pass away anniversary of Nikola Tesla and Elon could show his improved dance skill again in Shanghai.

I don't believe for sure that TSLA will shoot through the roof from January on ward in 2021 like this year, because I don't know. Instead, what I would like to contribute to this forum is that the talk about the stock will fall after 12/21 is premature.

Nobody knows how the market will behave is what I would like to advocate.

MIC Model Y production starts in December and hopefully begins ramping in January.

I also wouldn't say "the stock never looked back" after January 2020. It actually did because of COVID and, well, it remains the vomit inducing TSLA we all know and love. If someone doesn't like heart-pounding, headache-inducing roller coasters, they should avoid this ride stick to something slower.

If the "squeeze" scenario discussed by so many comes to pass and TSLA soars like a meteor the next 4 weeks, I don't see how it won't fall sometime before EOY. How much is anyone's guess. If there is no huge squeeze, we'll see.

 

[Paul_SF]

Construction and operation of Tesla's gigafactory in Shanghai maintains rapid progress - Xinhua | English.news.cn

 

[MC3OZ]

If the "squeeze" scenario discussed by so many comes to pass and TSLA soars like a meteor the next 4 weeks, I don't see how it won't fall sometime shortly after 12/21 (or even before). How much is anyone's guess. If there is no huge squeeze, we'll see.

IMO if there is a squeeze, Tesla should consider taping the squeeze with another at the market $5B raise.

The purpose would be to pay off any convertible notes outstanding, because if they convert, that may be more dilution than paying them out early.

Reducing debt and and posting good Q4 financial results, also helps minimize any drop.

Longer term, I am more interested in the rate at which Tesla can scale vehicle production, and also grow other product markets like Tesla energy. So far, the rate of expansion seems to be able to grow into most valuations.

 

[astrotoy]

By holding a non-dividend bearing stock long-term, there is NO opportunity to realize cash in the short-term. You would have to sell some.
There is always a time and a place for withdrawing cash from your investment portfolio. But you are fooling yourself if you think it's somehow better to take profits from options trades than from other investments. It's all just cash gains (although tax considerations could play into it).

Let me ask you this: When you hold options that expire worthless do you immediately calculate the loss and make a cash deposit to reimburse your brokerage account? The real question here is not by which method the gains were made but whether you really want to withdraw money from your investment account. Don't get me wrong, I've been withdrawing all the money we live on plus large purchases and real estate acquisitions for over 25 years without ever adding to it (and yet it continues to grow) but it doesn't matter whether the withdrawals come from interest, options trades or stock. It's just cash. The net effect, and the largest consideration, is it reduces our investible capital and the compound returns we get with that capital.

Before you say, "wait a minute, I'm talking about making income by writing covered calls", I'll point out that you are still risking the growth of your capital. There is a cost to everything, nothing is "free" in this world. And if you don't need that cash, then you don't need to risk the growth of your capital. It's easier to spend less than it is to fool yourself that you have devised a way to generate cash that doesn't risk your overall returns.

If you have enough stock, you can do what Elon probably does to get cash. Borrow money from a bank, using your TSLA stock as collateral. I am guessing you will get a decent interest rate if you borrow a relatively small fraction of the worth of the stock. Very low risk loan for a bank. Eventually you will have to pay back the loan or roll over the loan. You will need to pay at least the interest on the loan during the lifetime of the loan or have it accumulate as additional debt, particularly if TSLA continues to rise.

 

[StealthP3D]

If you have enough stock, you can do what Elon probably does to get cash. Borrow money from a bank, using your TSLA stock as collateral. I am guessing you will get a decent interest rate if you borrow a relatively small fraction of the worth of the stock. Very low risk loan for a bank. Eventually you will have to pay back the loan or roll over the loan. You will need to pay at least the interest on the loan during the lifetime of the loan or have it accumulate as additional debt, particularly if TSLA continues to rise.

In an emergency, borrowing against your stock might be a good option depending upon your circumstances. I always advise people who are trying to build a nest egg to cut spending ruthlessly because a dollar saved at a young age means so much more than a dollar or two saved in old age (due to the power of compounding). And it's easy to think you need to spend more to be happy or to think things will make your life better. And, if you can afford it, splurge on things that really matter to you, just try to keep that list from including everything, lol!

 

[kanweg]

If the "squeeze" scenario discussed by so many comes to pass and TSLA soars like a meteor the next 4 weeks, I don't see how it won't fall sometime before EOY. How much is anyone's guess. If there is no huge squeeze, we'll see.

And also, the early announcement makes the market cap rise and thus the percentage that Tesla will be of the S&P. But in case of an artificial inflation of the marketcap a lowered SP will also result in a rebalancing one quarter later. A lot of stock will be dumped by index funds in a very short time.

(I don’t know what I’m talking about. I just admit it)

 

[ggr]

After-action Report: Tue, Nov 24, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Melts Up w. Macro Tailwinds"

Traded: $29,389,396,345.43 ($29.39B)
Volume: 53,753,328
VWAP: $546.75

Close: $555.38 / VWAP: 101.68%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain: $490

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $526.445B / $198.778B = 264.84%
Note: Yahoo Finance updated TSLA Mkt Cap for shares issued Sep 9th (per 10-Q)
​

CEO Comp. Status:

TSLA 30-day Moving Avg Market Cap: $415.13B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $324.63B
Nota Bene: Mkt Cap for 5th tranche ($300B) likely achieved Nov 09, 2020​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 53.4% (53rd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 57.5% (55th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume ratio was 0.54% of Short Volume (46th Percentile Rank)​

View attachment 611570

Comment: "Short covering After-hrs?: New ATH $564.81 (17:21:50 PM)"

QOTD: @kenmccann "You put your pants on?"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

I finally figured out why your charts bug me. You always show the percentages relative to the opening price of TSLA, but this completely ignores any gap up or down overnight... which was about 5% last night.

 

[TravelFree]

I have 3 CT's on order for RT's and my conservative case is also 24 months

View attachment 611596

 

[wipster]

I'm kinda thinking we're gonna see 600 tomorrow...

 

[vwman111]

I'm kinda thinking we're gonna see 600 tomorrow...

I absolutely love your optimism...

 

[wipster]

I absolutely love your optimism...

Well, it's already over $570 US in Germany, that's kinda what I'm basing it on. Definitely didn't expect it so soon, but in this universe anything can happen... and probably will.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla trading at the equivalent of $572.56 early in the session at Berlin (TLO)

 

[vwman111]

Well, it's already over $570 US in Germany, that's kinda what I'm basing it on. Definitely didn't expect it so soon, but in this universe anything can happen... and probably will.

I'm locked and loaded and ready for a squeeze. Bring it on!

 

[JBRR]

Join the Cell Team | Tesla

Cool footage here

 

[Artful Dodger]

I finally figured out why your charts bug me. You always show the percentages relative to the opening price of TSLA, but this completely ignores any gap up or down overnight... which was about 5% last night.

NASDAQ sets the zero point for the day equal to the 08:00:00 AM share price, then percentages are calculated and displayed from that point for comparison(s) to other Indices (or other equities).

You'll find that this is the way HF tradering systems (like hedge funds) are setup as well. It's quite common to see TSLA driven down suddenly at the day, only to miraculously halt it's slide as soon as the SP % change touches one of these Index lines. It's goal-seeking selling by the algorithms, but they have to know when to stop. If they set their 'zero' point to the Opening SP at 09:30 you'd see very different results.

This is the way they programmed the computers that do 90+% of the Trading on Wall St, which makes it an important metric.

This chart updates about once per min during the Pre-Market (08:00 - 09:30 ET) but has a 15-min delay during regular Market hours. The chart is near realtime again from about 4:17 pm until 8:02 pm.

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Real-Time Stock Quote - NASDAQ.com

If you want to see the overnight jumps, simply select "5D" (5-day view) from the row of btns on the bottom of the Chart:

Cheers!

 

[TravelFree]

Reuters - this morning: Ford’s new CEO tackles warranty costs in bid to boost profit

What is barely mentioned is that the long established automakers must pay their franchised dealerships to make warranty repairs. I once had my car recalled to have an 80-cent part replaced in two minutes. I asked the service writer how much the dealership would charge General Motors. He answered, "About $200."

Tesla circumvents this by owning its sales and service centers. And unlike its competitors, it makes many of its own parts.

While the other car companies do have to reimburse Dealers for warranty work, Tesla still has a cost of maintaining their own service centers too. They do avoid duplication of certain jobs other car dealers have such as additional administration, but facilities costs and most of the employees costs are similar. One of the biggest advantages that Tesla has in their business model is they don't spend on advertising like others. They do have a budget for marketing but it is tiny compared to what others budget for marketing.

As Tesla has more cars on the road their number of service centers will need to increase as the turn around time gets longer and longer. I got a tour of my local Tesla center and a couple of things impressed me in a negative way- The parts inventory was tiny. They said they have to order in parts which is a delay that dealers like Ford and Toyota don't have. The delays at Tesla can run 10 times what other dealers have. 2 years ago there were an average of 6 Teslas in the parking lot every day waiting on parts for repair with service tickets hanging on the mirrors. Today, the waiting lot is packed with 4 times as many. Most other dealers here have a huge warehouse of parts plus there are 4 to 5 dealers in the area that can supply with a runner van to move parts throughout the day. One day soon Tesla will need to increase it's service centers and the capability of each one to handle the load.

I once owned a Ford Escape and it was being called in for a recall almost monthly. Most were small and non-emergency. My Leaf has had two major warranty repairs. The forward camera failed and a battery cell shorted. Total wait time was 11 days and they gave us a loaner. I wonder how long a similar repair would take at the Tesla SC. I have a friend who bought a Model Y that arrived in June and it had serious body issues he wanted corrected. I think it was mid July before some of the parts came in. Then his car was in the shop for a month and he was talked into compromise that they fixed it as best they could.

 

[MABMAB]

I wasn't saying not to "lever up" with options - I was trying to point out the fallacy of using the excuse that it's one of the only ways to "generate cash". That is a mental mind twist that has no place in investing.

Ah yes, a voice of reason. Thank you

 

[Mo City]

Well, it's already over $570 US in Germany, that's kinda what I'm basing it on. Definitely didn't expect it so soon, but in this universe anything can happen... and probably will.

Let's hope the momentum keeps going but we know from history the Frankfurt market has little or no effect on what happens here later in the morning. High-volume pre-market trading starts at (I think) -90 mins. This is when we first get our first real clue of what the open might be like.

I'll go away now, get my 5 hours and check back ~7am CST