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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Yes, absolutely. I have some Jan23 550c that increased yesterday about 1.5% while the actual stock increased more than 3%. :mad: WTF. I’m selling those and rolling to something else. Edit: I just figured out why this makes some sense. The option is leveraged about 2:1, so it works out.
Whoa whoa, before you make any decisions, I hope you understand the price does not change along with the SP, calls have their own bid/offer spread and the current "price" is just the last trade to execute, which on a very thinly traded asset does not necessarily reflect what you would gain if you put in a market sell to close order. I'll see my leaps not change for an entire day when the stock goes up 5%, *they're still worth about 8% more than they were the previous day even if my account doesn't reflect that at this exact moment*
There's a chance that you overpaid when you purchased (hit the high end of the ask) and only the first days gains are tempered, while all future days will track on a higher leveraged basis.
 
Now, we're looking out at a MINIMUM of $50B for forced buying over a 1 mth period. Sure it could be a bit more, and the S&P Committee might dick with the rules a tad, but here's the bottom line: SP is gonna zoom.

I hope the share price zooms all the way through the inclusion period. I think it could, it could even be wild crazy, but I don't think it's a given. The market loves to surprise.
 
The progress from first FSD beta to current FSD beta has been incredible. Sure it has mainly been bug fixes, but it seems that the neural network is also improving. If this keeps going then we will very rapidly approach 99.9999%. At some point bugfixes will slow and it will be more a grind of uncommon situations. But at that point hundred thousands cars will be using the 4D network in shadow mode and in active mode with the 1000x faster labelling and dojo I expect the data engine to iterate even faster than it did with the old 2.5D system, for example how well stop lights improve, how well auto lane change improved etc.

I think the recent bull run is not so much S&P but instead it is the slow realization that Tesla FSD is real, that take rate will be high, that robotaxi is still a very real possibility. Toyota, VW, BMW, Volvo etc must be pretty worried, what Tesla are doing in release to customers is far beyond what they are doing in development, while Tesla has the complete infrastructure to rapidly improve it. They still don’t have OTA, data upload, data enginee, HW3 equivalent hardware, long range EV, supercharging network, Dojo etc. And Tesla are running ahead full speed while they are struggling to catch up to where Tesla was 3 years ago.

At some point Tesla should get the credit they deserve for their entire software stack. It was not easy and the competition could not do what Tesla did. It was a great team effort doing something incredible very fast while being it total chaos having to pull manpower to get Model 3 ramp issues fixes, having to recreate entire Mobileye flagship product after the partnership failed etc before they finally are in the clear and can focus on what they believe is the long term solution. I have said it before, but it must be some much easier to develop new features to the current software/hardware stack than it was a few years ago or how it is to develop the same new feature to the competition’s software/hardware stack. Expect to see concrete solid progress from here!
Oh no the run up is def s&p related with some upgrades to amplify the rise. Wall street will not price in FSD until Tesla has regulatory approval and a solid robotaxi start date, or if we see dramatic uptick of FSD software purchases. Before then wall street will consider FSD as a liability, one crash away from stock tanking or regulators pulling the rug. You bet shorts and msm are ready to pounce, screaming from the hill top about it for months. There have been a shortage of FUD lately, so FSD death will be their golden ticket. No matter how impressive FSD looks, it will be labeled as a death machine if the car accelerates into a pedestrian. Good news is looks like fsd has been super good when it comes to pedestrians.

That one person Uber killed shut down both Nvidia and Ubers program for months.
 
Hahahaha... Very funny! Exactly who do you think realizes this?
Haha. I like OPs optimism though.

The share price rise is the product of S&P front running and algos respecting the technicals (Debatable I know, but I find value in some forms of TA).

I believe that FSD as we see it (Tesla Network) isn’t priced into the stock yet. The technology isn’t mature enough, and analysts don’t have enough to truly forecast what the Tesla Network could/would be thinking about the bottom line.

Back to the S&P though - the next month should be fun. I originally thought we’d get to $650 by inclusion date, but I think I lowballed it. We still have a few catalysts that will can really send this thing running (MIC Model Y production + Elon giving any hints that Tesla can hit 500K deliveries)
 
I agree 100%. In my 50+ years of investing I have never witnessed any near-future event that is so obviously predictable that actual happened as expected. The thieves on Wall Street, it seems, will always come up with a strategy to make sure that they profit on preventing that expected event from happening. However, I've got to say that I can't see anything that they could do. The obvious thing would be to naked short all those shares to the S&P buyers but the prospect of another split, forcing them to once again produce shares that don't exist would destroy them. I am not in a position to play the short term game but, were it 20 years ago, I'd be all over it. Not advice.

Like the saying goes If it’s too good to be true it’s probably not true. That said of all the events that have impacted TSLA this year this one seems like it’s backed by data and thorough analysis. The only unknown seems to be any curve ball that the S&P committee might throw.

The uninhibited rise of TSLA over the past two weeks has been steady and almost like it’s on cruise control. Tomorrow might be a good indicator of what the crooks/thieves might be up to or maybe we will get a confirmation that they are just playing by the rules. Reason I say that is because I expect low volume and it’s easier to manipulate it towards max pain.
 
Like the saying goes If it’s too good to be true it’s probably not true. That said of all the events that have impacted TSLA this year this one seems like it’s backed by data and thorough analysis. The only unknown seems to be any curve ball that the S&P committee might throw.

The uninhibited rise of TSLA over the past two weeks has been steady and almost like it’s on cruise control. Tomorrow might be a good indicator of what the crooks/thieves might be up to or maybe we will get a confirmation that they are just playing by the rules. Reason I say that is because I expect low volume and it’s easier to manipulate it towards max pain.
Tomorrow is Friday though. No way the MMs get this to max pain, but they’re likely to walk down the stock at some point to trap the morning call buyers.

Too many front runners for them to do anything too crazy.

Plus - it’s always good to have a red day here and there to cool off.

Monday’s always seem to be our best day
 
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I explained the details back in Aug and Sep, live as events unfolded. Maybe subscribe? :p



You don't seem to have really grok'd the purpose and utility of the Share Dividend: if/when Tesla determines that excessive naked short selling has occurred, to the point where it is artificially suppressing TSLA's share price, THEN it's time for the stock dividend (which flushes the hidden/synthetic/fake shares from the system).

This COULD happen in Dec, if the MMs/Hedgies are so foolish as to try naked shorting again to hold back TLSA's rise due to the S&P 500 addtion. Tesla would be right to do so then, as they have the sole sovereign right to issue equity in Tesla, not the MMs with their abuse of the SEC exemption to the prohibition against naked short selling (SEC Regulation SHO)

Fun Fact: the root word for "regulation" is from the Latin regulatus, (“to direct, rule, regulate”), from regula (“rule”), from regō (“to keep straight, direct, govern, rule”). That's the "sovereignty" that Tesla claims, and the SEC is charged to defend. Word.

Cheers!
Jeez, if Tesla does a "share dividend" on top of the infinity squeeze it may blast TSLA into the Mirror Universe.
 
I agree 100%. In my 50+ years of investing I have never witnessed any near-future event that is so obviously predictable that actual happened as expected.
I think I've mention this. Jus' sayin'... :p

Kabuki wall decor | Etsy

Kabuki-Bowie.jpg


Cheers!
 
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Yeah, it's interesting that they're holding back, since the report seems to have been ready for some time. At least Tasha has been teasing it for awhile.

Some folks here have speculated that ARK Invest is holding back to see the outcome of the Fall 2020 FSD Beta test program. If things go well, and Tesla does a general release of FSD in the U.S.A. by Christmas time, then it's "well-howdy"... :D

Rather than just holding back for dramatic effect, I think ARK Invest is considering revising their Robotaxi timetable, and the revenue streams to match. If FSD beta shows that Robotaxi's are years ahead of analysts presumed timelines, it's gonna accelerate the revenue streams. Bigly.

I agree with this except I think ARK already has a strong enough conviction of how mature FSD is and are only holding back because they know the investment community doesn't have much conviction at at all and their report and price targets will have much more acceptance and impact once they can see the advancements with their own eyes.

I think the early beta FSD videos are pretty damn impressive and the most recent release shows the speed of improvements so we can expect ARK's report between now and Christmas. Which is only 4 weeks away. So, maybe in the next week or two as they won't want to release it too close to Christmas.
 
Happy thanksgiving to my neighbors!

All time high's are pretty nice, might be at a bit of an ATH myself.
Feeling like my truck order will be a few years yet so this inventory model X happened. O.O
Probably retire my parents dangerous old vehicle and split the usage of the X and my current truck with em :)

Couldn't have done it without the wealth of information from everybody here. I can't thank you all enough. Great community. Time to give a little back to Tesla.
first tesla X.JPG
 
Your post, in this context, makes this concept of sovereign right crystal clear, thanks.

It’s obvious when you think about it, that those short sellers are trying to appropriate the right to issue shares, false shares as you say, when that is actually exclusively Tesla’s right.

Among his very balanced characteristics, this really highlights what Musk dislikes so much about the short sellers the SEC.

FTFY
 
Several days before S&P snubbed TSLA early September, Kimbal Musk and Robyn Denholm each old a chunk of their shares around $480. At that time, I remember one member here pointed out: "Well, that's is a perfected timed sale". Well, if they would have known that by holding the stock for a couple of months longer, they could have gain another 18% or so, I ma not sure they would have still sold.

Of course the insiders usually sell their holding since they have ways to accumulate through their job, and I am not in any ways judging their timing. It just reinforces my belief that being insider don't mean they possess more wisdom with regards to timing the market.

This revelation may come handy next time it happens again.
 
Oh no the run up is def s&p related with some upgrades to amplify the rise. Wall street will not price in FSD until Tesla has regulatory approval and a solid robotaxi start date, or if we see dramatic uptick of FSD software purchases..
I think this is false. If FSD progress is real this will lead to so much halo effect on the entire company, more cars sold, higher take rate, higher FSD price, higher insurance margins etc. And the value of selling the upgrade in itself is a lot of money. 2M cars in 2022, 50% take rate, $10k package = $10B in profit, PE50 -> $500B market cap. For FSD alone, even without considering robotaxi $100k value per vehicle greatest appreciation in history if Elon is correct.

Hahahaha... Very funny! Exactly who do you think realizes this?
Me for example. I would have diversified about 30% of my shares during the latest runup, but decided not to because of FSD progress being underestimated. And I think there are a lot of other people thinking the same. We are seeing upgrades from so many analysts starting to do the basic back of napkin math I did above. Just wait until the same analysts get to sit in a car driving itself for a few hours and then having to go back to driving their old ICE vehicle. I remember when autopilot was unavailable for a 15min tunnel, it was pure torture to have to drive by myself...
 
You know that EVs are starting to turn the corner when you start seeing ads like this during football games...


To my eye, that ad is simply the first step towards the line for government hand-outs.

In a whiney voice: "Please help us, we've done the right thing, worked real hard on electrification, but it takes a long time to change 117 years of success overnight. If you care about the environment as much as we obviously do, then you will bail us out." :rolleyes:
 
Several days before S&P snubbed TSLA early September, Kimbal Musk and Robyn Denholm each old a chunk of their shares around $480. At that time, I remember one member here pointed out: "Well, that's is a perfected timed sale". Well, if they would have known that by holding the stock for a couple of months longer, they could have gain another 18% or so, I ma not sure they would have still sold.

Of course the insiders usually sell their holding since they have ways to accumulate through their job, and I am not in any ways judging their timing. It just reinforces my belief that being insider don't mean they possess more wisdom with regards to timing the market.

This revelation may come handy next time it happens again.

In studies I've seen, insider selling is not statistically corelated with share price performance after the sale. Insider buying has a weak correlation with good performance of the share price.
 
At the very end, Jeremy "Fartson" trapped the gaggle of lawyers in the back seats (or so he said) by using Summon to pull the Model X between two closely parked cars. But the falcon wing doors would have easily opened and allowed a graceful exit. Yet he failed to show that amazing capability. Bastard!
Back in 2011 time frame almost shorted Tesla due to TOP GEAR. Love the show but after researching more on everything Tesla and Elon Musk I instead invested long. By 2016-2017 Tesla was 60+% of my portfolio. I’m about 92% today. What a turn of fortune.
 
Russ' $TSLA "Base", "Bear", "Best", and "Elon's 20M units" Share Price Predictions for 12/31/2030

I think @Robocop makes an important point. $AAPL market cap is ~$2T today. If you assume that $TSLA continues to be the dominant force in a growing EV market profit-wise (like Apple over Android), with Solar/Battery/HVAC(?) compounded growth, Tesla Network becomes reality, high-profit margin Tesla App Store created, etc., then it is reasonable that $TSLA might have a $4T market cap by 12/31/2030. Here's why:

Its market cap today is $544B. That would be an average CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of "only" 22% per annum in the share price. I think Tesla's sales will easily grow at a CAGR of 22% or more for the next ten years. In the last 4 quarters, Tesla sold 430K vehicles. When I apply 22% CAGR to that, it will sell 3.14M vehicles in 2030. Compare that to 77.5M worldwide sales in 2019. It's only a 4% market share! This is my very conservative "base case" for 2030, $4,200 per share. I assign it only 40% probability because based upon history I don't see the incumbents or the newcomers threatening Tesla's EV dominance this decade.

Now, let's be very pessimistic and assume that $TSLA is in a +100% S&P 500 inclusion, FOMO, and short squeeze bubble right now. When you slice 1/2 off the market cap you get $272B. (A large 2021-22 macro decline could also happen if the economy stagnates in recession after covid-19, unlike Wall Street's current rosy outlook post-covid.) Starting down at $272B applying 22% CAGR we get a $1.98T market cap in 2030 (where $AAPL is today). Still not bad for HODLERs since it is a market-beating 13.8% CAGR from today's $574/share to $2,090. That is my "bear case" for 2030. I assign it 10% because $TSLA could be in a bubble, a worldwide recession or very slow economic recovery could happen post-Covid, or Volkswagen could surprise us in the EV market after throwing so much capital at it.

Personally, I am extremely bullish and this is my "best case". Statista.com states Toyota had the leading global automotive market share of 10.24% in 2019. I'm going to give Tesla a 12% market share in 2030 for several reasons most of you already know so I won't discuss them here. Automotive Analyst Daniel Harrison predicts 120M global automotive units will be sold in 2030. Based on his forecast, Tesla's share will be 14,400,000. That is a CAGR in units of 42% average per year. Applying 42% CAGR to the shares brings us to $19,133 at the end of 2030! I assign this prediction a 40% probability. [1]

Finally, Elon has stated his ambitious goal is to produce 20M units per year by 2030. That would be a 16.67% market share of the forecasted 120M global market in 2030. Units CAGR is 47%. Applying that to our shares takes them to $27,045 at the end of 2030! This number is an upper limit for EV's because obviously $TSLA cannot grow at 47% indefinitely or its sales would exceed the market. I assign this scenario a 10% probability (hope I'm wrong!) because Elon historically has been overly optimistic.

We should expect $TSLA share price CAGR to decrease after a decade because of the law of large numbers: "In a financial context, the law of large numbers indicates that a large entity which is growing rapidly cannot maintain that growth pace forever." - Investopedia.com

Now, like Ark Investments did, I'll combine my weighted probabilities predictions of the price on 12/31/2030:

10% * $ 2,090 [Bear] = $ 209
40% * $ 4,200 [Base] = $1,680
40% * $19,133 [Best] = $7,653
10% * $27,045 [Elon] = $2,704


I predict the 12/31/2030 share price will be $12,246 which is an average CAGR of 35.8%.

It would be an interesting exercise if others posted their 2030 "bear", "base", and "best" case scenarios (with their derivation) for 12/31/2030 by 1/1/2021 [2]. Then we can HOLDR and see who came closest a decade from now! If my $19,133 "best case" comes true I will buy ALL of you a gourmet lunch (who fly in on your private electric jets :D) to attend the 2031 Tesla Annual Stockholders Meeting!

Russ

[1] I just did my personal math and it blows my mind because my family would be in the low nine figures if my "best case" happens... This is similar to what happened to long-term Berkshire Hathaway HOLDRS that bet on Warren Buffet since his early days. Perhaps Tesla will have to rent Chase Center in SF for the Annual Shareholders Meetings!

[2] I plan to update mine after 12/21/20.

Good start but I think your numbers are way off. You aren't even including energy & storage which Elon said would be larger than the car business. Then there's FSD, solar, semi's and HVAC systems. I'd say that could multiply your $12K share price number by 3x by 2030.

Unfortunately, in 2026 the Harris administration will force a breakup of Tesla's robotaxi monopoly, so I'm not including that in my 3x estimate.