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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Cattledog

Active Member
Feb 9, 2012
2,177
2,893
San Antonio, TX
Anyone thinking of selling their TSLA shares at $600 or $800 or $1000 should watch this video. The nuclear bomb that will destroy the auto industry as we know it is coming much sooner than most people expect, and your company is gonna unleash it.
Way back in early 2013, after we had been driving our 2012 Model S for a month or two, I was gushing about the car on this forum, 'best car I've ever owned, etc.'. Someone remarked, 'You realize you own the WORST version of the Model S Tesla is ever going to make.' Bingo, pushed more chips into the center of the table. So, with FSD, from today forward this is the WORST version of FSD that anyone is going to drive. Let those parallel realizations, separated by about 9 years, sink in.
 

AudubonB

One can NOT induce accuracy with precision!
Mar 24, 2013
8,099
27,036
Way back in early 2013, after we had been driving our 2012 Model S for a month or two, I was gushing about the car on this forum, 'best car I've ever owned, etc.'. Someone remarked, 'You realize you own the WORST version of the Model S Tesla is ever going to make.' Bingo, pushed more chips into the center of the table. So, with FSD, from today forward this is the WORST version of FSD that anyone is going to drive. Let those parallel realizations, separated by about 9 years, sink in.
Hey! I'm pretty sure that was me! But whether or no, it is indeed apposite wrt FSD. Good call.
 

PeterJA

Member
Sep 26, 2013
932
8,719
San Diego
Way back in early 2013, after we had been driving our 2012 Model S for a month or two, I was gushing about the car on this forum, 'best car I've ever owned, etc.'. Someone remarked, 'You realize you own the WORST version of the Model S Tesla is ever going to make.' Bingo, pushed more chips into the center of the table. So, with FSD, from today forward this is the WORST version of FSD that anyone is going to drive. Let those parallel realizations, separated by about 9 years, sink in.

True, and equivalent progress will not require equivalent time. All the stunning improvements in the FSD rewrite occurred in 5 weeks, since the first version was released.
Elon Musk: Tesla Self-Driving Beta Testing Starts Tonight

And Dojo is still to come for training the software. Progress will not only continue, but accelerate.

Ford will not be around in 15 years. I doubt they have 5.
 

heltok

Active Member
Aug 12, 2014
1,181
10,154
Sweden
The progress from first FSD beta to current FSD beta has been incredible. Sure it has mainly been bug fixes, but it seems that the neural network is also improving. If this keeps going then we will very rapidly approach 99.9999%. At some point bugfixes will slow and it will be more a grind of uncommon situations. But at that point hundred thousands cars will be using the 4D network in shadow mode and in active mode with the 1000x faster labelling and dojo I expect the data engine to iterate even faster than it did with the old 2.5D system, for example how well stop lights improve, how well auto lane change improved etc.

I think the recent bull run is not so much S&P but instead it is the slow realization that Tesla FSD is real, that take rate will be high, that robotaxi is still a very real possibility. Toyota, VW, BMW, Volvo etc must be pretty worried, what Tesla are doing in release to customers is far beyond what they are doing in development, while Tesla has the complete infrastructure to rapidly improve it. They still don’t have OTA, data upload, data enginee, HW3 equivalent hardware, long range EV, supercharging network, Dojo etc. And Tesla are running ahead full speed while they are struggling to catch up to where Tesla was 3 years ago.

At some point Tesla should get the credit they deserve for their entire software stack. It was not easy and the competition could not do what Tesla did. It was a great team effort doing something incredible very fast while being it total chaos having to pull manpower to get Model 3 ramp issues fixes, having to recreate entire Mobileye flagship product after the partnership failed etc before they finally are in the clear and can focus on what they believe is the long term solution. I have said it before, but it must be some much easier to develop new features to the current software/hardware stack than it was a few years ago or how it is to develop the same new feature to the competition’s software/hardware stack. Expect to see concrete solid progress from here!
 

Nocturnal

Supporting Member
Aug 23, 2018
6,361
32,687
In the middle
Your post, in this context, makes this concept of sovereign right crystal clear, thanks.

It’s obvious when you think about it, that those short sellers are trying to appropriate the right to issue shares, false shares as you say, when that is actually exclusively Tesla’s right.

Among his very balanced characteristics, this really highlights what Musk dislikes so much about the short sellers
Musk was bullied greatly as a kid. He hates bullies. When you have gone through that trauma it’s formative in your personality. I can relate.
 

Richard007

Member
Feb 9, 2018
103
542
Northern California
You all who have been calling for the price spike after S&P announcement have been right.

But I can't help the nagging feeling that it's too easy, too logical. If everyone KNOWS the price has to go up over the next several weeks, doesn't that in and of itself indicate we are missing something? While the number crunching and logic laid out here make perfect sense to me, one thing I do know is the stock market acts very irrationally at times, often zigging when we expect it to zag.

@TheTalkingMule makes sense to 'keep it rational.' While I am envious of those of you who have leveraged your position with options and are making a killing, I am happy to play along with my toes dipped in the water and just stay long shares.
Elon’s clearly thinking about TMC Teslanaires with this celebratory gesture :

Tesla to launch 'special colors' for the new Roadster electric supercar - Electrek
That post did it for me, I’m getting one! I’ll keep my 911, but wow Roadster, I’m sold. And I only need to sell a few shares when it comes out to pay for it! Thanks for posting!
 

Tyler34

Member
Dec 11, 2019
357
2,419
Oregon
Yes, absolutely. I have some Jan23 550c that increased yesterday about 1.5% while the actual stock increased more than 3%. :mad: WTF. I’m selling those and rolling to something else. Edit: I just figured out why this makes some sense. The option is leveraged about 2:1, so it works out.
The delta of the option tells you how it moves in relation to the stock. So at .71 delta if you are 2:1 leveraged you are getting 1.4x if you had just bought the stock.
 
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OrthoSurg

Member
Jun 2, 2017
820
5,229
Montreal
Anyone thinking of selling their TSLA shares at $600 or $800 or $1000 should watch this video. The nuclear bomb that will destroy the auto industry as we know it is coming much sooner than most people expect, and your company is gonna unleash it.
Wow, the improvement rate is incredible.
Just drove the last 2 days with FSD in the snow in Montreal highways in the worst conditions and it behaves really great. Not perfect when the road are snowy but I see robotaxis happening within next 2 years.

The stock price will go insane.

That’s a 10T market equity shift.
 

Hock1

Member
Jan 21, 2017
678
6,354
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
You all who have been calling for the price spike after S&P announcement have been right.

But I can't help the nagging feeling that it's too easy, too logical. If everyone KNOWS the price has to go up over the next several weeks, doesn't that in and of itself indicate we are missing something? While the number crunching and logic laid out here make perfect sense to me, one thing I do know is the stock market acts very irrationally at times, often zigging when we expect it to zag.

@TheTalkingMule makes sense to 'keep it rational.' While I am envious of those of you who have leveraged your position with options and are making a killing, I am happy to play along with my toes dipped in the water and just stay long shares.
I agree 100%. In my 50+ years of investing I have never witnessed any near-future event that is so obviously predictable that actual happened as expected. The thieves on Wall Street, it seems, will always come up with a strategy to make sure that they profit on preventing that expected event from happening. However, I've got to say that I can't see anything that they could do. The obvious thing would be to naked short all those shares to the S&P buyers but the prospect of another split, forcing them to once again produce shares that don't exist would destroy them. I am not in a position to play the short term game but, were it 20 years ago, I'd be all over it. Not advice.
 

engle

In 1976 Looking ahead to 2030!
Sure, but TSLA does not have that many doublings left, if you start from a small sum. No matter how bullish you are. I too have a smaller account, so I'm bullish on TSLA, but even at $4T market cap, I won't be able to retire on it. Womp womp.

Russ' $TSLA "Base", "Bear", "Best", and "Elon's 20M units" Share Price Predictions for 12/31/2030

I think @Robocop makes an important point. $AAPL market cap is ~$2T today. If you assume that $TSLA continues to be the dominant force in a growing EV market profit-wise (like Apple over Android), with Solar/Battery/HVAC(?) compounded growth, Tesla Network becomes reality, high-profit margin Tesla App Store created, etc., then it is reasonable that $TSLA might have a $4T market cap by 12/31/2030. Here's why:

Its market cap today is $544B. That would be an average CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of "only" 22% per annum in the share price. I think Tesla's sales will easily grow at a CAGR of 22% or more for the next ten years. In the last 4 quarters, Tesla sold 430K vehicles. When I apply 22% CAGR to that, it will sell 3.14M vehicles in 2030. Compare that to 77.5M worldwide sales in 2019. It's only a 4% market share! This is my very conservative "base case" for 2030, $4,200 per share. I assign it only 40% probability because based upon history I don't see the incumbents or the newcomers threatening Tesla's EV dominance this decade.

Now, let's be very pessimistic and assume that $TSLA is in a +100% S&P 500 inclusion, FOMO, and short squeeze bubble right now. When you slice 1/2 off the market cap you get $272B. (A large 2021-22 macro decline could also happen if the economy stagnates in recession after covid-19, unlike Wall Street's current rosy outlook post-covid.) Starting down at $272B applying 22% CAGR we get a $1.98T market cap in 2030 (where $AAPL is today). Still not bad for HODLERs since it is a market-beating 13.8% CAGR from today's $574/share to $2,090. That is my "bear case" for 2030. I assign it 10% because $TSLA could be in a bubble, a worldwide recession or very slow economic recovery could happen post-Covid, or Volkswagen could surprise us in the EV market after throwing so much capital at it.

Personally, I am extremely bullish and this is my "best case". Statista.com states Toyota had the leading global automotive market share of 10.24% in 2019. I'm going to give Tesla a 12% market share in 2030 for several reasons most of you already know so I won't discuss them here. Automotive Analyst Daniel Harrison predicts 120M global automotive units will be sold in 2030. Based on his forecast, Tesla's share will be 14,400,000. That is a CAGR in units of 42% average per year. Applying 42% CAGR to the shares brings us to $19,133 at the end of 2030! I assign this prediction a 40% probability. [1]

Finally, Elon has stated his ambitious goal is to produce 20M units per year by 2030. That would be a 16.67% market share of the forecasted 120M global market in 2030. Units CAGR is 47%. Applying that to our shares takes them to $27,045 at the end of 2030! This number is an upper limit for EV's because obviously $TSLA cannot grow at 47% indefinitely or its sales would exceed the market. I assign this scenario a 10% probability (hope I'm wrong!) because Elon historically has been overly optimistic.

We should expect $TSLA share price CAGR to decrease after a decade because of the law of large numbers: "In a financial context, the law of large numbers indicates that a large entity which is growing rapidly cannot maintain that growth pace forever." - Investopedia.com

Now, like Ark Investments did, I'll combine my weighted probabilities predictions of the price on 12/31/2030:

10% * $ 2,090 [Bear] = $ 209
40% * $ 4,200 [Base] = $1,680
40% * $19,133 [Best] = $7,653
10% * $27,045 [Elon] = $2,704


I predict the 12/31/2030 share price will be $12,246 which is an average CAGR of 35.8%.

It would be an interesting exercise if others posted their 2030 "bear", "base", and "best" case scenarios (with their derivation) for 12/31/2030 by 1/1/2021 [2]. Then we can HOLDR and see who came closest a decade from now! If my $19,133 "best case" comes true I will buy ALL of you a gourmet lunch (who fly in on your private electric jets :D) to attend the 2031 Tesla Annual Stockholders Meeting!

Russ

[1] I just did my personal math and it blows my mind because my family would be in the low nine figures if my "best case" happens... This is similar to what happened to long-term Berkshire Hathaway HOLDRS that bet on Warren Buffet since his early days. Perhaps Tesla will have to rent Chase Center in SF for the Annual Shareholders Meetings!

[2] I plan to update mine after 12/21/20.
 

Ameliorate

Member
May 22, 2016
470
3,562
Victoria, BC Canada
Yes, absolutely. I have some Jan23 550c that increased yesterday about 1.5% while the actual stock increased more than 3%. :mad: WTF. I’m selling those and rolling to something else. Edit: I just figured out why this makes some sense. The option is leveraged about 2:1, so it works out.
Whoa whoa, before you make any decisions, I hope you understand the price does not change along with the SP, calls have their own bid/offer spread and the current "price" is just the last trade to execute, which on a very thinly traded asset does not necessarily reflect what you would gain if you put in a market sell to close order. I'll see my leaps not change for an entire day when the stock goes up 5%, *they're still worth about 8% more than they were the previous day even if my account doesn't reflect that at this exact moment*
There's a chance that you overpaid when you purchased (hit the high end of the ask) and only the first days gains are tempered, while all future days will track on a higher leveraged basis.
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
8,967
67,755
Maple Falls, WA
Now, we're looking out at a MINIMUM of $50B for forced buying over a 1 mth period. Sure it could be a bit more, and the S&P Committee might dick with the rules a tad, but here's the bottom line: SP is gonna zoom.

I hope the share price zooms all the way through the inclusion period. I think it could, it could even be wild crazy, but I don't think it's a given. The market loves to surprise.
 

Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
3,705
25,370
US
The progress from first FSD beta to current FSD beta has been incredible. Sure it has mainly been bug fixes, but it seems that the neural network is also improving. If this keeps going then we will very rapidly approach 99.9999%. At some point bugfixes will slow and it will be more a grind of uncommon situations. But at that point hundred thousands cars will be using the 4D network in shadow mode and in active mode with the 1000x faster labelling and dojo I expect the data engine to iterate even faster than it did with the old 2.5D system, for example how well stop lights improve, how well auto lane change improved etc.

I think the recent bull run is not so much S&P but instead it is the slow realization that Tesla FSD is real, that take rate will be high, that robotaxi is still a very real possibility. Toyota, VW, BMW, Volvo etc must be pretty worried, what Tesla are doing in release to customers is far beyond what they are doing in development, while Tesla has the complete infrastructure to rapidly improve it. They still don’t have OTA, data upload, data enginee, HW3 equivalent hardware, long range EV, supercharging network, Dojo etc. And Tesla are running ahead full speed while they are struggling to catch up to where Tesla was 3 years ago.

At some point Tesla should get the credit they deserve for their entire software stack. It was not easy and the competition could not do what Tesla did. It was a great team effort doing something incredible very fast while being it total chaos having to pull manpower to get Model 3 ramp issues fixes, having to recreate entire Mobileye flagship product after the partnership failed etc before they finally are in the clear and can focus on what they believe is the long term solution. I have said it before, but it must be some much easier to develop new features to the current software/hardware stack than it was a few years ago or how it is to develop the same new feature to the competition’s software/hardware stack. Expect to see concrete solid progress from here!
Oh no the run up is def s&p related with some upgrades to amplify the rise. Wall street will not price in FSD until Tesla has regulatory approval and a solid robotaxi start date, or if we see dramatic uptick of FSD software purchases. Before then wall street will consider FSD as a liability, one crash away from stock tanking or regulators pulling the rug. You bet shorts and msm are ready to pounce, screaming from the hill top about it for months. There have been a shortage of FUD lately, so FSD death will be their golden ticket. No matter how impressive FSD looks, it will be labeled as a death machine if the car accelerates into a pedestrian. Good news is looks like fsd has been super good when it comes to pedestrians.

That one person Uber killed shut down both Nvidia and Ubers program for months.
 

twtestw

Member
Jul 20, 2020
8
11
Toronto
Hahahaha... Very funny! Exactly who do you think realizes this?
Haha. I like OPs optimism though.

The share price rise is the product of S&P front running and algos respecting the technicals (Debatable I know, but I find value in some forms of TA).

I believe that FSD as we see it (Tesla Network) isn’t priced into the stock yet. The technology isn’t mature enough, and analysts don’t have enough to truly forecast what the Tesla Network could/would be thinking about the bottom line.

Back to the S&P though - the next month should be fun. I originally thought we’d get to $650 by inclusion date, but I think I lowballed it. We still have a few catalysts that will can really send this thing running (MIC Model Y production + Elon giving any hints that Tesla can hit 500K deliveries)
 

vikings123

Supporting Member
May 27, 2019
1,102
8,322
MN
I agree 100%. In my 50+ years of investing I have never witnessed any near-future event that is so obviously predictable that actual happened as expected. The thieves on Wall Street, it seems, will always come up with a strategy to make sure that they profit on preventing that expected event from happening. However, I've got to say that I can't see anything that they could do. The obvious thing would be to naked short all those shares to the S&P buyers but the prospect of another split, forcing them to once again produce shares that don't exist would destroy them. I am not in a position to play the short term game but, were it 20 years ago, I'd be all over it. Not advice.

Like the saying goes If it’s too good to be true it’s probably not true. That said of all the events that have impacted TSLA this year this one seems like it’s backed by data and thorough analysis. The only unknown seems to be any curve ball that the S&P committee might throw.

The uninhibited rise of TSLA over the past two weeks has been steady and almost like it’s on cruise control. Tomorrow might be a good indicator of what the crooks/thieves might be up to or maybe we will get a confirmation that they are just playing by the rules. Reason I say that is because I expect low volume and it’s easier to manipulate it towards max pain.
 

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