Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Forbes - half hour ago: New U.S. Climate Portfolio Must Emphasize Innovation And Grid Development, IEA Chief Says

 

[ggr]

Whoa whoa, before you make any decisions, I hope you understand the price does not change along with the SP, calls have their own bid/offer spread and the current "price" is just the last trade to execute, which on a very thinly traded asset does not necessarily reflect what you would gain if you put in a market sell to close order. I'll see my leaps not change for an entire day when the stock goes up 5%, *they're still worth about 8% more than they were the previous day even if my account doesn't reflect that at this exact moment*
There's a chance that you overpaid when you purchased (hit the high end of the ask) and only the first days gains are tempered, while all future days will track on a higher leveraged basis.

When I value my options, if the last trade was between the current bid and ask, I use that price. If it was less than the bid, I use the bid price. If it was more than the ask, I use the ask price.

 

[ggr]

In studies I've seen, insider selling is not statistically corelated with share price performance after the sale. Insider buying has a weak correlation with good performance of the share price.

If nothing else, it's because they have to decide on the trade basically three months in advance. Who would'a thunk it three months ago?

 

[euro2012]

My calls I bought last week (mostly Dec 4-18) are up a ton, but if there is what looks like a manufactured dip tomorrow on a low volume, half-day holiday Friday, I’m buying lots more. I will target Jan 15 for the next round.

Was thinking the same, and will be watching closely. Care to share what strike price you are after?

 

[StealthP3D]

hmmm. Ok. But isn’t the electric mustang built in Mexico?

Just sayin.

Good point! I guess that's why their slogan in this commercial is "Built for America", not "Built in America".

 

[Big Time]

Futures are up.

see ya in the morning

 

[StealthP3D]

Wall street will not price in FSD until Tesla has regulatory approval and a solid robotaxi start date, or if we see dramatic uptick of FSD software purchases. Before then wall street will consider FSD as a liability, one crash away from stock tanking or regulators pulling the rug.

I think you're wrong about this. The market is inherently forward-looking even though stock market analysts lag. FSD is such a revolutionary technology that investors will start "pricing it in" the shares gradually, as it becomes apparent to people of normal intelligence and learnings that it's going to happen. The revenue doesn't need to modelled in analyst's spreadsheet in order to start being "priced in" to the shares. And some analysts are already doing crude modeling of FSD revenues.

You bet shorts and msm are ready to pounce, screaming from the hill top about it for months. There have been a shortage of FUD lately, so FSD death will be their golden ticket. No matter how impressive FSD looks, it will be labeled as a death machine if the car accelerates into a pedestrian.

I think you're right about that, but who cares? Let the shorts scream from the hill top. It simply doesn't matter. No one of any importance listens to them.

 

[alloverx]

As a non shareholder I am enjoying the thoughts of the short sellers recent pain.
-Congrads to the long term shareholders.

One suspects the price will be very volatile in the next year with the media emphasizing all the new competitors.

As for the media focusing on the recent Tesla recalls, they pale into insignificance compared with the recent GM recall.

 

[Mo City]

Agree or disagree: It is very likely TSLA closes at $670 or above next Thursday or Friday?

Comments also much appreciated.

 

[kanweg]

People drive differently. This will inevitably lead to whining about FSD. For aggressive drivers, it will be too docile. For overly cautious drivers, it will be too aggressive. And for those in between they will experience both because sometimes FSD is more aggressive than they would have been and at other times too slow. Add to that the inherent desire to feeling superior (remember this basic selling point of religions?) and difficulty of giving over control. It will take longer to subside than for the reduction in casualties to be apparent, I think. But then (again like religion) social pressure and fear will promote its adoption. Fear of losing one’s driving license or freedom to go where you want when old, or social pressure to have FSD : you don’t want to kill anyone now your reaction speed is worsening and you can’t turn your head as well, do you? Feelings of superiority (status) can also help adoption: My car has full self driving. To;dr: apart from the technical aspect lots of psychology is involved.


Idiotic high prices will be a deterrent. The value of FSD for a Semi Owner is different than for a retired person.

 

[LST]

My calls I bought last week (mostly Dec 4-18) are up a ton, but if there is what looks like a manufactured dip tomorrow on a low volume, half-day holiday Friday, I’m buying lots more. I will target Jan 15 for the next round.

what strikes are you aiming.?.. asking for a friend
I will load up today ( friday that is) if the dip occurs, but not made my mind up on which strikes)

 

[Artful Dodger]

U.S. macros are all green at 2:00 AM ET:

NASDAQ-100: 12,186.00 +33.75 +0.28% 02:00:08

Cheers!

 

[adiggs]

Like the saying goes If it’s too good to be true it’s probably not true. That said of all the events that have impacted TSLA this year this one seems like it’s backed by data and thorough analysis. The only unknown seems to be any curve ball that the S&P committee might throw.

The uninhibited rise of TSLA over the past two weeks has been steady and almost like it’s on cruise control. Tomorrow might be a good indicator of what the crooks/thieves might be up to or maybe we will get a confirmation that they are just playing by the rules. Reason I say that is because I expect low volume and it’s easier to manipulate it towards max pain.

What if the actively managed funds, and other big sharks in the waters, have realized that instead of screwing retail investors (a relatively minor component of the market, which they can get back to soon enough), this setup gives them a chance to screw the S&P 500 index (well - funds actually)?

Maybe we're just swimming along in the school with them, as we all front run the S&P 500 inclusion?

 

[FS_FRA]

True, and equivalent progress will not require equivalent time. All the stunning improvements in the FSD rewrite occurred in 5 weeks, since the first version was released.
Elon Musk: Tesla Self-Driving Beta Testing Starts Tonight

And Dojo is still to come for training the software. Progress will not only continue, but accelerate.

Ford will not be around in 15 years. I doubt they have 5.

It's posts / threads like this that make me really excited regarding the fact that I have another 2.5 years on my MS lease before I roll to the next Tesla. Just simply imagining what the Model S will look like then, what the FSD capability will be (...and what the EU regulators make of it) is fantastic.

Someone upthread mentioned the potential demise of the S, or the lack of importance placed on it. I cannot disagree more! It is - subjectively - the best looking Tesla available today with a design that has stood the test of time more or less unchanged (yes, refresh....)

 

[FS_FRA]

TL.0 opened at €479.30 ($570.80) in Frankfurt.

Good luck to all on this short trading day.

I'm hoping for a significant dip

 

[Artful Dodger]

If nothing else, it's because they have to decide on the trade basically three months in advance. Who would'a thunk it three months ago?

How's 4.5 months ago?

Post by: Artful Dodger, Jul 7, 2020 in forum: TSLA Investor Discussions

I think:

• I bought tickets to this show years ago
• I've been camped out in line for 24 mths
• I can hear the orchestra warming up
• I ain't leavin' early b4 no show!

Oh the bears and MMs are ready, they know just what to do. Here's their secret plan:

Yes, that's a full month BEFORE the Share Dividend announcement lit the fuze on this here candle.

The addition of TSLA to the S&P 500 is the graduation ceremony to this course of study. Turns out, the correct answer to the final exam is "HODL".

Cheers!

 

[FS_FRA]

Agree or disagree: It is very likely TSLA closes at $670 or above next Thursday or Friday?

Comments also much appreciated.

No idea if this means anything, but we've had an increase of ≈5.1% per day since SP inclusion. SO if we continue on this trajectory we'd be looking at ≈$780 for end of next week.

I do not believe this, rather I expect a walk-down today towards something resembling Max Pain ($505) or serious capping action at $600, possibly a further walk-down on Monday and a great buying opportunity on Tuesday. Hey, I gotta hope....

Of course, ultimately it will probably do it's own things and I continue to know that I know nothing....

 

[MABMAB]

TMC showed me a manscaping related ad just now. Is this because of the haircuts bears are getting? Oops, snipped a little extra there fella...

 

[StealthP3D]

Someone upthread mentioned the potential demise of the S, or the lack of importance placed on it. I cannot disagree more! It is - subjectively - the best looking Tesla available today with a design that has stood the test of time more or less unchanged (yes, refresh....)

I agree, it's the best looking Tesla in the entire line-up. But looks is not what determines it's importance going forward. The biggest problem is it costs too much to make and so will only ever sell in relatively low volumes.

I still need to try a Raven but we've had two Model S loaners and I like just about everything about the Model 3 better. The two primary exceptions are the Model S is better for long-distance cruising on the Interstate (both the ride and the range now that they have the Raven pushing 400 miles) and it's also better for loading a lot of stuff, especially bigger items. But I wasn't speaking to looks or functionality when I said the Model S was not very important to Tesla going forward - it all about volume. The Model S will never be a high volume car.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla trading at €479.75 early in the session at Tradegate Berlin (TLO) (the equivalent of $571.92). Light volume with just 3.4K shares traded so far.

Cheers!