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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

luca

Member
Apr 1, 2015
152
177
German
BTW., latest BEA U.S. car sales data (SAAR) is out for February:

fredgraph.png


16.53m annualized seasonally adjusted sales, a -2.3% YoY drop over 2018.
not bad considering bad weather
 

mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
13,480
42,128
Michigan
Wisconsin is the same way. Sales ban but the state will gladly take my "use tax" money for a car purchased out of state (Illinois). Wisconsin gives a credit for tax paid out of state, but Illinois does not tax cars intended to be registered out of state. I would have loved to cut WI out by purchasing from a state like California who collects tax regardless of intent to register in that state. Ultimately it wasn't worth it to pay ~9.5% instead of 5.5%.

Gotcha, it's an Illinois thing, Ohio charges its sales tax of 5.75%, so Michigan only gets 0.25% if you buy from there.
 

Thekiwi

Active Member
Mar 31, 2016
1,638
15,260
Wellington
A little OT

As a TSLA shareholder these days I feel like I’m Michael Burry (played by Christian Bale in the movie) in “The Big Short”. The path that Tesla is on is crystal clear to me…and the rest of the world (present company excepted) is in massive denial and peddling bullshit.

The problem is, all the shorts also think they are Michael Burry...
 

KarenRei

ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ
Jul 18, 2017
9,619
104,589
Iceland
I interpret it as the former.

That very roughly works out to negative $3.5K gross margin. That is inline with a company wide email that Musk sent a few months ago in which he said SR would cost 38.5K to build. The email was screenshot somewhere in Asia and was circulated on various twitter accounts - both bull and bear. The figure is also inline with the transcript of the conference call published by some shorts (Game of Pennies).

"Tesla indicated that initially, the $35k Model 3 will generate a positive cash gross margin (gross profit plus depreciation of approximately $1,500)"

How you go from "they'll generate a positive cash gross margin" to "they'll lose $3,5k" is beyond me. $38,5k was what it cost in December, which - ignoring a whole quarter of margin improvements, including lower depreciation from faster production, and also before 7% layoffs.
 

printf42

Active Member
Sep 29, 2018
1,303
13,581
CA
A little OT

As a TSLA shareholder these days I feel like I’m Michael Burry (played by Christian Bale in the movie) in “The Big Short”. The path that Tesla is on is crystal clear to me…and the rest of the world (present company excepted) is in massive denial and peddling bullshit.
You got it wrong, in that movie the guy was a short, I’m pretty sure every one in TSLAQ crowd feels themselves as that guy in real life.

Edit: I was late on this one just a few posts.
 
Last edited:

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
63,885
Ithaca, NY, USA
Right, right. We’re basically saying the same thing. People are questioning why they would lower the prices 6% vs just taking the increased money as more profit. My answer is to offset the drop in demand caused by closing stores. Same thing you said, just with directionality reversed.

EDIT: re-reading, I guess you’re saying it’ll increase demand over keeping the stores. Could be. I doubt even Tesla knows that answer for sure.
The rule of thumb I read was that cutting prices on a car $5000 *doubled* addressable market.

The stores weren't pulling their weight.
 

hacer

Active Member
Apr 13, 2016
1,159
5,275
Clarksville, MD
OT
...
False, here n is just the number of free electrons per m^3 in the conductor. Which is dependent on the mass density, molar volume, free electrons per mole. What I think you are referring to is electric resistivity, which is a function of temperature.
So you believe the thermal expansion coefficient of copper (with impurities) is zero then?
/OT

That bot makes no sense.
Look at AMZN amzn | Volumebot
55%? Yeah right.
Why Short Volume is Important | Volumebot

Most of the short volume simply represents market makers front running the large market orders routed to them through paid order flow. So a market order to sell 10,000 shares comes in, the MM nakedly shorts 10,000 shares into the bid, driving the bid price down in the process, then they buy the 10,000 shares from the seller who gave them the paid order flow at the new best bid.

This shows up as 10,000 shares of short volume which was held for a fraction of a second before they closed the short by buying from the selling customer. So this is just fleecing the customer stupid enough to enter a large market sell order (whether a short, or a long bailing out). It is nearly risk free money for them - they win if the bid doesn't hold up through their short sell, and if it does, they only lose the small payment they made to get the order flow.
 

M3Rider

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Oct 3, 2018
1,512
7,713
CO
It's quite true. Even before the Model 3 was available in volume, BMW sales fell. I expect ICE CUV sales to fall considerably after the Model Y unveil as people delay their normal vehicle refresh cycle to hold out for a Tesla. I expect the fossil car companies to be hurting in 2020, and to see at least one bankruptcy by 2022. The Osborne Effect will most certainly apply to fossil cars a couple of years before the car buyers purchase their next vehicle. I expect used vehicle prices for fossil cars to also drop precipitously.
What I mean is that per that estimate, the market will be up for the grabs in 2024, there will just not be enough EVs made.
So, if others do not rump up the EVs production like Tesla does, it seems people will be delaying a car purchase by 3-5 years by the time they can get a hold of one.
The cars around here might start looking like those in Cuba.:)
 

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
63,885
Ithaca, NY, USA
Would love for Tesla to clarify on why SR is still 2-4 weeks delivery everywhere,
Because nobody has updated the webpage. Communications strikes again!

especially if they are only starting to produce them. Really hope InsideEVs Jan and Feb #s are wrong too
We have two separate sources saying they're wrong, including AlphaHat Don't get me wrong, they're probably not that much lower than the real number, but I'd go with AlphaHat's number right now.
 

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
63,885
Ithaca, NY, USA
You got it wrong, in that movie the guy was a short, I’m pretty sure every one in TSLAQ crowd feels themselves as that guy in real life.
Pffft. They haven't got the personality for it. Burry was steely calm. I think they think of themselves as the semi-hysterical Mark Baum (played by Steve Carrell) -- but they aren't.
 

PhaseWhite

Member
Aug 12, 2017
863
2,467
Minneapolis,MN
Also note that Gasparino was on the bankwuptcy $TSLAQ hype train a few short months ago:

Charles Gasparino on Twitter

"SCOOP: Bankers are inundating @Tesla
w refinancing ideas as two major bond repayments near; one idea floated with be to raise about $5b in new senior secured debt to make payment etc on the notion the $TSLA battery brand and car are worth at least $10b in a worst-case bankruptcy"​

That Gasparino tweet didn't age well: two weeks later Tesla posted +~$1b FCF Q3 results, ~3 months later posted +~$1b FCF Q4 results, and paid back both bonds in cash. :D

We should also remember that a key feature of FUD tactics is that "Doubt" about a complex high-tech company is much cheaper to add than to remove.

I agree the last thing Tesla needs is more debt financing that leverages their balance sheet and reduces cash flow. But they should sell stock, preferably to a strategic investor who can also work with Tesla on increasing the value of that investment. Maybe there will be a good time after the Model Y unveiling to take this forward.

In the past folks here including @Fact Checking have expressed the notion that debt financing is superior because it prevents dilution (which grows in kind if the stock goes up) but this is not a company that has a stable cash cushion for such a luxury. If they did then we would not be seeing such extreme cost cutting measures being implemented.

If Tesla could deleverage their balance sheet they would be able to invest in growth again and would likely be rewarded with a valuation increase worth more than the initial dilution.

Lastly, Elon's insistence not to raise capital is part of the bear thesis. This is the part I have a hard time disagreeing with as it makes no sense to me. Tesla has good product ideas, but they lack capital to execute them. If they want to capture these markets they need to move fast. Model S/X refresh is another great example. I'm sure Tesla would like to have funded that program but they likely had to delay it to prioritize capital for Model 3. People in the S forum have been speculating about a refresh since 2016.

Adam Jonas:
“Without an additional capital raise, we are prepared for Tesla’s gross cash to fall further below ($2 billion),” he said. The new sales model is “uncharted territory” for Tesla, a company that used to highlight its advantages in promoting the brand and engaging with customers without a middleman, he said.
Source: Tesla stock slides to 4-month low as analysts question recent decisions, fret about cash burn

Tesla's lack of dealerships means that they require more capital for inventory because all their inventory sits on their books, instead of the dealers. They will need capital for things like spinning up the fabbing of HW3 manufacturing in volume, investing in Model Y, Semi and Roadster parts suppliers and manufacturing lines where will the capital come from for these programs to actually happen on schedule? The continued positive cashflow we've seen seems to be a big unknown to me with the huge price drops and 35k model 3.
 

Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
4,611
36,957
US
Anyone here thinks the SR is going to be made in a completely new production line? What is musk referring to when it comes to volume production and S curve? No such thing happened with the MR when that was in the mix.
 
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