Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FS_FRA]

I appreciate your thoughtful reply. I don't doubt that many people have benefitted from a variety of comforting fantasies. Hell, prayer works for some people in generating profits. But it's very difficult to know what god is in charge of the market on a given day.

When I suggest testing your beliefs, I mean rigorously, not just by noticing that it seems to work sometimes. For instance, that might mean setting up a control buy and hold position. You can even do it retrospectively, for example by comparing your returns to a buy and hold position not only at your favorite 18 months baseline, but on a variety of start dates over an extended time period. I suspect you'll see your TA improvements evaporate when examined that way. Or maybe not. But just like humans tend to see patterns, we have a plethora of ways of fooling ourselves.

In any case, everybody should do what works for them. My only beef is with people pushing magical systems. Everything works fine, until it doesn't. And most people can predict the past with fair accuracy.

Can you guys continue this discussion in a separate thread, please? I fail to see how this has any more specific relation to TSLA.
Thanks.

 

[Tim S]

175
545,00
Limite
545,000
2 déc. 2020
09:39
175 / 175
Exécuté


I really don’t get how my buy order of 175 [email protected] went through at 9:39AM

I bought at $545 at 9:34...

 

[Todd Burch]

There needs to be a big question mark Rating* choice for posts like this.
So I'm supposed to want to have an order in to sell my TSLA at a certain low price in case the stock price starts to drop...
...because it might keep dropping further????...
...Then what if I happen to set that stop loss at what happens to be the lowest stock price of the day and the next thing it does is take off to new highs, but at that point, my account is totally devoid of my investment in TSLA?
How exactly is stop loss supposed to benefit me again?
*Also a rating choice option for "I don't understand ANY of this post, but I'm sure it must be informative"...

Many investors place stop loss orders on their holdings. Stop loss orders cause an order to be placed to sell shares automatically when a trigger price is reached. Some do this to protect gains. Others do this in order to not get financially wiped out if a black swan event were to occur, even if they're bullish on the stock.

In the former case, investors often place stop losses not too far below the current stock price to protect their gains. The big dogs can take advantage of this: On days where volume is low and manipulation is easier, they'll drop the price considerably--for no apparent reason to force retail investor's stop losses to get triggered, which causes a cascading drop in the stock price--it's an unstable situation, as further drops trigger more stop losses and the process repeats. Those shares get sold, and the manipulators then buy those shares back up at a much cheaper price than they otherwise would have.

My advice was directed at those investors in the former camp who place their trigger prices close to the current price and therefore make themselves susceptible to getting bent over and violated by the MMs.

Example:

TSLA trading at $585. Investor wants to protect gains, so he places a stop loss order at a share price of $550, thinking that's well outside of a normal day's swing. On a day like yesterday or today where volume is low, market opens and the price gets driven down to $540 very easily. Stop loss is triggered, shares get sold, and the MMs then buy up those shares for cheap.

Then prices start going back up. The retail investor, watching the stock price go back up and having his shares sold at $550, sees the price rising back up toward $585 and starts fearing that he's missing out, rebuying his position, but now at a higher price.

The moral of my story is to not place stop loss orders with a trigger price close to the current share price for this very reason.

 

[2daMoon]

Dear Santa,

All I want for Christmas is a 3:1 split announcement prior to the 21st, triggered by a closing SP over $600.

Thanks

P.S. I really enjoyed your new movie Fat Man.

 

[woodisgood]

Dear Santa,

All I want for Christmas is a 3:1 split announcement prior to the 21st, triggered by a SP over $600.

Thanks

P.S. I really enjoyed your new movie Fat Man.

Can someone clarify what Tesla can and can’t do without shareholder authorization? IIRC they could still do a 2:1 at any time because they were previously approved for 10:1, but anything further would require shareholder vote/approval?

 

[Sudre]

After this mornings little outburst on charts and graphs.... lets look at a chart and graph! LOL

In the real world the SP movement in the down direction is not playing to what the open interest chart says THEY have sold in options. Volume has been lacking but not all that bad. This weeks upper limit does suggest $600 max. No one seems to be buying Calls under $580. Looks like our momentum was from traders who are now standing by and waiting since they now have an actual date to focus on. I would say the chart below also has a strong indication the SP will be above $560. The lack of major difference in Calls to Puts between >$560 <$600 leaves a large field of grey area where THEY really don't care.

I had sold a spattering of PUT spreads for this week before we had the SP500 announcement. I'll close everything in those brackets.
IF Call buyers pick up today in the bracketed range it means THEY will be happier with a lower close. That will be seen in tomorrows chart. It is.... interesting how the SP wants to stay above $560... for now.

Let be clear on my thoughts on this. What THEY want and what THEY get might be two different things but THEY are typically really good at calling it so it is best to stay out of their dinner circle. And don't trade on any forum posters advice because they are here on the forums and not on a private island for a reason. Once Starlink is out tho I can post from a private island. LOL
HMM... does a private mountain top reduce latency since it is a bit closer?

 

[jerry33]

How exactly is stop loss supposed to benefit me again?

What it is supposed to do is protect you from a total market collapse or a black swan that causes a company to loose it's value permanently. It's not really relevant to volatile stocks like Tesla, because you'll be harmed more than helped. It's of some value for mature companies to allow the lazy investor to get out without having to do any research. (e.g. I don't want Polaroid to go below $. Of course, the savvy investor will have bailed long before that, but at least the lazy investor does not loose all their profits.)

 

[hobbes]

Tesla can start equipping GF Berlin paint shop:

https://twitter.com/Micha_BILD/status/1334176812407140352
Google Translate

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Yahoo finance will display an updating stock price in the browser tab while you are browsing other tabs. It does occasionally freeze and needs a refresh, at least for me on Firefox.

Yeah, I use either Yahoo finance or Investors Business Daily to keep a tab with the price updating. Mine freezes on Firefox as well on occasion but its only once or twice a day.

 

[oldTAVguy]

I'm looking for a $600 close today. Just feels right.

Can someone clarify what Tesla can and can’t do without shareholder authorization? IIRC they could still do a 2:1 at any time because they were previously approved for 10:1, but anything further would require shareholder vote/approval?

Could the board have a special vote to increase the number of authorized shares? That alone could spook the naked shorts. And I'd like to get the shorts to poop their shorts.

 

[lafrisbee]

I am gonna two post. I got two inklings.
First.... Elon's "leaked" Sledgehammer souffle.
He doesn't use phrases like that does he? I'm not aware of it. So? Someone wrote it for him. It is too colorful. And the writer took some time figuring out how to make it impactful.

And a "souffle"? You really think that Elon has a souffle for what? Breakfast? At the most decadent the guy is an omlet eater. More likely green eggs and ham than a souffle. If he's runnin around a house full of children getting ready for work and decides on a souffle for breakfast someone needs to kick him in the arse. I can see him going through McD's getting an egg mcmuffin and a coffee.

And his physics-oriented mind is better than that. A sledgehammer really wouldn't have much of an impact on a souffle. A sledgehammer will not crush a souffle. He knows that. It'd be like hitting a bunch of packing peanuts with a sledgehammer. Elon knows that. And if he doesn't his mind would have calculated the excessive waste of using a sledgehammer to "crush" a souffle. The image would have never fully materialized in his mind before he'd have gone to a beer can. Most of the force would pass through a souffle (Yes yes, "not if it were the Katgeraund's). The souffle would almost be intact, except for a sledgehammer hole in it. If he was trying to establish an image of destruction while using a sledgehammer he would not have chosen a souffle as the recipient of the force. A sledgehammer creates a massive amount of force considering the speed it attains. And delivers it a small specific area. The souffle would not absorb the force. It is the worst possible choice if one were to want to show the destructive capacity of a sledge hammer. An object a sledgehammer will "crush" must hold and transmit the force throughout its body instead of allowing the force to move through it.
Gallagher's Watermelon only explodes because it is held together so a force acts more on the whole thing than passing right through it. Proof? you want PROOF?

Can you even "crush" a souffle? It is almost impossible. It is more liquid air in its behavior than anything else. A small force can make it fall, thereby becoming something more familiar to me, an omelette. (I am unsure of this, perhaps once again I should bring in Kategruand).
A sledgehammer would do little more than the closing of an oven door? Ruin the "thing."
Now I realize that just using the oven door souffle example might have been a better image, as in care should be taken to achieve a goal.

And Elon would also calculate the choice of images concerning his target audience, The Working Man. He damn well knows they aren't Souffle-eating MoFo's. And he knows they don't think highly of anyone, or thing, that has anything to do with a souffle.
Now here again, they do know Gallagher (if they are as old as F.), so the use of the Gallagher watermelon demonstration would have been a better choice considering his audience.
Hell I don't really think I've seen some wussy-ass souffle in person. Julia Childs comes to mind, but that's about it. Maybe Katergurand sitting in his island/mountain lair will have his cats' chef make souffles for them with virgin anchovies or some such SH!T. But a working man doesn't know what a souffle looks like, so he can't get the image of a sledgehammer doing anything to it. No Sir, The sledge-o-matic Taking out a watermelon is the image Elon would have thought of..or the science fiction/starwars equivalent.

And then there is the timing within the image. Which is more problematic. Elon understands the dynamic of time, especially in regards to building the machine that builds the machine, and also from "production hell." How is this lack of attention to waste suddenly going to become the vaporization of profit? It takes generations for change... Did I miss something? Are Tesla employees no longer being attentive? When did that start?

And then there is this poorly chosen image fitting in to what I have read the letter is actually about : "A great idea saves $5, but usually the savings come from many $.50 to $.20 cent improvements."
That statement does not refer to decreasing profits, but to increasing profits. The exact opposite of what happens in his example. One refers to a loss, and the other a gain.

I've talked how I can see the fractionized way elon communicates when he is talking (and often in his posts). And the letter doesn't read like the source is Elon. It's from a lesser mind. It's from someone talking from a perspective they have no real knowledge about to a recipient of which they have no real understanding.

Nope. That there image was created by some ad executive's goofball cousin.

Now as to why it was even done. Therein lies the rub...
Perhaps to give fodder to the Fuddites so they could pull the SP down.
Why?

 

[H Mak]

I didn’t know Forbes had so much Short position on TSLA

Adding Tesla To The S&P 500 Was A Bad Idea In September, Even Worse Now

I have never seen so many lies and FUD packed in one article

The person who wrote this, David Trainer, is another one of those who has misjudged the Tesla story so many times over so many years that it has caused his body to twist and contort, such that his head is now disappearing up his own &rse. From 2013 to date for example, he has published 11 articles on Seekingalpha (say no more) with the following titles:

Danger Zone: Tesla Motors
SolarCity's Light Is Fading Fast
Bailing Out SolarCity Costs Tesla Investors $7.4 Billion
Tesla: Running Out Of Energy?
Tesla: New Executive Compensation Plan Means It's Time To Short This Stock
Time To Follow Tesla Executives And Run For The Hills?
Sell Side's Defense Of Tesla And Spotify Reeks Of Conflict
Stupid Money Risk Is Real
Stock Option Liabilities Add Additional Risk To Owning Tesla
More Broken Promises From Tesla
Tesla: The Most Dangerous Stock For Fiduciaries

So it's no surprise he has popped up again with this latest garbage. He is an analyst who lacks the ability to analyze, and who, when it comes to Tesla, has a 100% record of getting it wrong. You'd expect Forbes to employ higher editorial standards.

 

[JustMe]

Is there a phone app or something you can use to set it to loudly read out the price of a stock if it is below or above certain ranges? It would be worth a lot if there was.

Or an app that I can use on a spare phone on the wall to constantly show the stock price full screen with the phone display always on?

Don’t you have an assistant reading the stock tape for you? Are you mad?!

 

[Knightshade]

His 90k is now 11k?
Or his 90k is now 79k?

Lol

Now 11k (well, now 18 shares times whatever current SP is when you read this)

As in a loss of around 79k despite the stock itself being up massively since he began.

 

[tinyrodent]

Tesla can start equipping GF Berlin paint shop:

https://twitter.com/Micha_BILD/status/1334176812407140352

Here is the actual source. Original German: Tesla erhält Zulassung des vorzeitigen Beginns für den Einbau einer Lackieranlage

Google Translate:
Tesla receives early start approval to install a paint shop

Potsdam - In its most recent decision, the State Office for the Environment allowed Tesla to install the paint shop in the planned vehicle plant. This is done on the basis of an early start approval according to Section 8a of the Federal Immission Control Act and is carried out at the developer’s own risk. The paint shop should primarily use water and solvents sparingly.

The examination of the application submitted at the end of August was extensive and detailed because it relates to the operating unit in the water protection area, in which chemicals are handled. Therefore, all containers must either be double-walled or set up in a sufficiently large collection area.

The construction of the plant takes place in the existing structures. Since no new areas are used, no further requirements for nature conservation are required. Due to the current pandemic situation, an exception to the night work ban is permitted so that the work can be carried out in compliance with the distance and hygiene requirements. This had to be taken into account when determining the requirements for noise protection.

 

[BlackS]

Many investors place stop loss orders on their holdings. Stop loss orders cause an order to be placed to sell shares automatically when a trigger price is reached. Some do this to protect gains. Others do this in order to not get financially wiped out if a black swan event were to occur, even if they're bullish on the stock.

In the former case, investors often place stop losses not too far below the current stock price to protect their gains. The big dogs can take advantage of this: On days where volume is low and manipulation is easier, they'll drop the price considerably--for no apparent reason to force retail investor's stop losses to get triggered, which causes a cascading drop in the stock price--it's an unstable situation, as further drops trigger more stop losses and the process repeats. Those shares get sold, and the manipulators then buy those shares back up at a much cheaper price than they otherwise would have.

My advice was directed at those investors in the former camp who place their trigger prices close to the current price and therefore make themselves susceptible to getting bent over and violated by the MMs.

Example:

TSLA trading at $585. Investor wants to protect gains, so he places a stop loss order at a share price of $550, thinking that's well outside of a normal day's swing. On a day like yesterday or today where volume is low, market opens and the price gets driven down to $540 very easily. Stop loss is triggered, shares get sold, and the MMs then buy up those shares for cheap.

Then prices start going back up. The retail investor, watching the stock price go back up and having his shares sold at $550, sees the price rising back up toward $585 and starts fearing that he's missing out, rebuying his position, but now at a higher price.

The moral of my story is to not place stop loss orders with a trigger price close to the current share price for this very reason.

I guess majority of TMC are the opposite..we place sell limit orders that are 500% above the current SP that will never execute during the day.

 

[Bunky]

I am gonna two post. I got two inklings.
First.... Elon's "leaked" Sledgehammer souffle.
He doesn't use phrases like that does he? I'm not aware of it. So? Someone wrote it for him. It is too colorful. And the writer took some time figuring out how to make it impactful.

And a "souffle"? You really think that Elon has a souffle for what? Breakfast? At the most decadent the guy is an omlet eater. More likely green eggs and ham than a souffle. If he's runnin around a house full of children getting ready for work and decides on a souffle for breakfast someone needs to kick him in the arse. I can see him going through McD's getting an egg mcmuffin and a coffee.
Why?

Steam engine with a side of quiche says hi

 

[amolina]

While we wait for the SnP drama to unfold. Here is another really great video of testing with Version: 2020.44.15.4

 

[sroh]

Now 11k (well, now 18 shares times whatever current SP is when you read this)

As in a loss of around 79k despite the stock itself being up massively since he began.

That's brutal. I expect that's what would happen to me if I tried to time the market with short term trades and betting on call options.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Now 11k (well, now 18 shares times whatever current SP is when you read this)

As in a loss of around 79k despite the stock itself being up massively since he began.

How did he manage to do that?!? Buy at 900 pre-split, sell at 360 pre-split, buy at 1800 pre-split, sell at 1400 pre-split, buy at 500, sell at 310? All the highs and lows might just get you to -88%. It would be quite an accomplishment.