Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Just listened to a recording of a public meeting of the environmental committee of the state of Brandenburg (where Giga Berlin is constructed). They commented on the state of the project. My take aways:

• There has been no application to build a battery or cell factory. They don´t expect it this year. Interesting with regard to the question if they will produce cars with only 4680 or also 2170 cells there...
  
• They are working on planning a long distance water supply for future phases of factory buildout, not yet decided where the water will come from
  
• For the final permit of the current construction phase they are still missing required documents, the only one mentioned is a verbatim transcript of the meeting where people could voice objections to the project (the one that lasted 8 instead of 3 days..) Didn´t sound it would be there soon. You´d think one could feed the recording into a computer, proof read it, done, right?!

Source:

Germany is a very interesting chit show. And I am assuming this was the best government to deal with in Europe? It has been interesting that they protect the lizards, both on the grounds and in the homes.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

"The ability to subdue the enemy without battle is a reflection of the ultimate supreme strategy. The supreme is to attack enemies' strategies and plans, by thwarting them. Next is to attack the enemies' strategic alliances with other nations." (Chapter 3, Sun Tzu Art of War)​

I have been thinking about the sudden GS upgrade to $780, after their previous downgrade. Perhaps it is more of a defensive move to counter their bigger fear. Their upgrade is more a move to discourage overshooting $780 during the inclusion period than it is a genuine recognition of the TSLA fundamentals we HODL'ers are aware of.

Ponder this.

 

[lafrisbee]

Ponder this
I checked FANG a minute ago and all of em were in the red. T is green. Oh wait?
Damn it! Now I have to buy some green T.
EDIT: But back to TSLA is up around 5% on a day when FANG and so much of the EV market is negative!

 

[hobbes]

Germany is a very interesting chit show. And I am assuming this was the best government to deal with in Europe? It has been interesting that they protect the lizards, both on the grounds and in the homes.

You must be proud of your own government ...

EDIT: Anyway, the factory is growing in spite of some bureaucracy.

 

[mickle]

• There has been no application to build a battery or cell factory. They don´t expect it this year. Interesting with regard to the question if they will produce cars with only 4680 or also 2170 cells there...

Considering that Telsa just put up a web site to try and recruit engineers to help design and build the machines that will make the batteries, that will go in the factory, I think it will be at least a year or so before we see them putting up buildings.

 

[Knightshade]

And what’s the message, especially when the losing team is a media favorite?

“Team X lost the game” rather than “Team Y won/earned it.”

Nope.

Their message is Tesla only eeks out a profit as long as legacy keeps fumbling around making so many crappy iCE cars they have to pay Tesla for credits.

As soon as the OTHER team stops screwing up, Tesla stops "winning" because their "core" auto business isn't profitable.

That's their premise.

I mean- it's stupid and wrong, but that's what they are going with now that "is not profitable at all" isn't working out for them anymore.

They've moved the goal posts to "is not profitable without credits and those won't last"

 

[UkNorthampton]

Another pic of new charging centre with your favourite android / turbo


View attachment 614093

Fully Charged Video - 20 minutes looking at first of 100 'Gridserve Electric Forecourt'

Tesla relevance: Includes Tesla Superchargers (so working together) & their Gridserve's own contactless chargers / app remembers car from first use, so similar to Tesla simplicity. Uses storage (Tesla?), has own solar fields, EV rentals. Better infrastructure > more EVs > more Tesla sales/usage

This is applicable to any country and will spread. I think price is around 25p/kwh - similar to Tesla in UK.

UK prices of 70p/kwh for ionity I think, so very good value. Looks fast as well, another video showed Robert Llewelyn having to rush as Taycan went from 10% to 62% - charged very quickly (350kw possibly).

 

[Curt Renz]

I would frequently interview former market maker Jon Najarian, when I made my daily trips to the CBOE for TV. He's a straight shooter.

CNBC - 2 hours ago:

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC Video - half hour ago: Traders talk key buy and sell levels for Tesla

 

[lafrisbee]

You must be proud of your own government ...

EDIT: Anyway, the factory is growing in spite of some bureaucracy.

I was hoping I'd find something better in the civilized world. Maybe when we get to Mars we can try again.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Incredibly cheap advertising, handmade (ish) & released as and when. Kids wave at Model 3 - I think it'll be like 1960s Beatlemania. Or BTS doing a free gig at a McDonalds

Anytime you want to get publicity in a region or country, release a roadster or two to that region. Youtube, TV, print etc

Instead of paying for advertising, media will be biting Tesla/owners' hands off. Let a tame race driver have one early (Nico Rosberg?) and point him at Laguna Seca / Nurburgring etc. You couldn't put a price on the value of the publicity.

 

[FS_FRA]

$600 is still a pretty steep climb:

View attachment 614195

no s**t I'm changing my battle cry to C'MON 595

 

[BriansTesla]

Nope.

Their message is Tesla only eeks out a profit as long as legacy keeps fumbling around making so many crappy iCE cars they have to pay Tesla for credits.

As soon as the OTHER team stops screwing up, Tesla stops "winning" because their "core" auto business isn't profitable.

That's their premise.

I mean- it's stupid and wrong, but that's what they are going with now that "is not profitable at all" isn't working out for them anymore.

They've moved the goal posts to "is not profitable without credits and those won't last"

Of course there won't be any credits when the ICE manufacturers are out of business. That's when Tesla will cease to be profitable.

/s

 

[Unpilot]

$600 is still a pretty steep climb:

View attachment 614195

Your phone needs charging.

 

[Tslynk67]

Is this the inevitable push to get it down below $587 for the close? Whatever, has been very bullish on low volume today.

 

[FS_FRA]

I was hoping I'd find something better in the civilized world. Maybe when we get to Mars we can try again.

Spoiler: Rules of this bar....

 

[jw934]

​

I have been thinking about the sudden GS upgrade to $780, after their previous downgrade. Perhaps it is more of a defensive move to counter their bigger fear. Their upgrade is more a move to discourage overshooting $780 during the inclusion period than it is a genuine recognition of the TSLA fundamentals we HODL'ers are aware of.

Ponder this.

GS historically took a negative view of Tesla due to the analyst assigned. I heard that analyst moved out a while back, but not before giving yet another downgrade just before leaving. Then Mark Delaney took over that role but perhaps needed time to learn the "auto" business?

Gary Black tweeted this morning:
--------------QUOTE------------------------------------------
Here’s what happens on the GS sales floor when Mark Delaney upgrades $TSLA to Buy and raises his PT from $455 to $780:

1/ Each Institut’l salesperson calls their biggest commission paying clients first (Fidelity, Capital, HFS) and talks up the upgrade, and why it’s so great.
2/ Since most GS clients do not hold $TSLA, much of the sales pitch is that Mark and his team will help the buy side client’s research teams with models, conf calls, etc. with the goal that if the client decides to add TSLA, they trade through GS.
3/ Even at GS, Mark’s comp as a research analyst is directly related to his commission $ that come in as a result of his research. With Chinese walls between research and underwriting, Mark’s comp should not be tied to whether $TSLA uses GS to do a TSLA secondary (yeah, right).
--------------END OF QUOTE------------------------------------------
Source: https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1334516595432034309?s=20

Few additional things I learned/relearned from previous posts in TMC and/or Twitter:
- Upgrades is a tool to get more paying clients. It is irrelevant if it is accurate as long as it achieves the goal.
- Unless the stock is rated at least a hold, the firm cannot recommend clients to buy that stock
- Clients pay GS to get them access to Tesla Investor Relations, and it is much easier for GS to arrange that if their PT is high

 

[Mo City]

Matt Smith projects FSD revenues per quarter for 2021. They are quite explosive without robotaxis.

IMO, he's worth following on Twitter. https://twitter.com/MatchasmMatt

 

[JBRR]

https://twitter.com/auto_schmidt/status/1334592620631371791?s=20

Moderators - let me know if you don't want this VW related stuff in the investor thread. Seems relevant enough to me.

 

[StealthP3D]

The problem is that the analysts don't believe it's recurring. After all, the media indicates that legacy auto will produce millions of EVs--any day now. Analysts generally don't do much research, just read a few headlines.

Oh. I thought you said the problem was analysts were just doing it how they were trained. So, can we agree, the real problem is they are bad analysts?