Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

His book Damodaran on Valuation is considered one of the standard texts of valuation. He actually bought some TSLA at a little under $200 pre-split and made 3x or 4x his money before selling.

He has several videos on Tesla. For instance, this one from February. Very helpful in thinking about Tesla's valuation, but I would say that he has been unrealistically conservative at times in the past. Much like your typical Wall Street analyst in that respect.

For what it's worth, using my assumptions in his model, it shows Tesla at more or less fair value.

When your "facts" are wrong, great reasoning just produces bad conclusions. GIGO, as they say.

 

[StealthP3D]

This graph will be the norm everywhere in the World by 2030. Some places maybe 2035

Wow! You are really bullish on PHEV's and plugless hybrids!

 

[dl003]

To follow up on this earlier post, the Governor’s office has posted the Regional Stay at Home Order (available here) and clarified its contents in a press release. My read is that a Regional Stay at Home Order will not affect Tesla production at Fremont, as Tesla clearly meets the definition of “critical infrastructure” under Sector 6, paragraph 17, which reads: “Workers critical to the manufacturing, distribution, sales, rental, leasing, repair, and maintenance of vehicles and other transportation equipment (including electric vehicle charging stations) and the supply chains that enable these operations, subject to adhering public health guidance issued by CDPH.” (emphasis added)

With respect to Alameda County:

It is unclear to me whether local orders can supersede this order, and if so, whether or not Alameda could compel businesses defined as “critical infrastructure” to cease operations.

The order contains language stating that it supersedes other statewide orders, but does not mention whether more restrictive local measures would apply if the two were in conflict. Given that this order implements aggressive mitigation measures, however, I think it unlikely that Alameda county will feel compelled to take additional action beyond what is contained in the order.

Tesla was explicitly given the Essential Business status by the state of California. I think Tesla's shutting down again has been ruled out beyond the shadow of a doubt.
California gives Tesla 'essential workforce' exemption from new Covid-19 health orders
OT: funniest 15 sec of my life
https://twitter.com/diesesToastbrot/status/1333140212558540806

 

[InDaClub]

OT:

For all you Tesla investors...

Tesla | Shop Search

 

[Thekiwi]

CNBS just had the NYU professor Aswath Damodaran bashing the value of Tesla. Does anybody know why he if considered the "dean of valuation"? Has anybody made money from his predictions? Does anybody have any source showing his track record? My limited skill of Google has found nothing that show his value except that he is highly respected and talks a good game. Why this respect? From writing a few finance books?

He invests using his own system of valuation - he updates his trades frequently. he has been in and out of Tesla several times.

 

[oldTAVguy]

He invests using his own system of valuation - he updates his trades frequently. he has been in and out of Tesla several times.

Where is the summary of results comparing his investments with his published valuations in the media? Data needed to determine if he is good or not. Does he eat his own dog food at the time that he gives his opinions or is the stuff he releases cleaned up to change dates and results. The several times I have seen him on CNBS he has mostly crapped on Tesla valuation. Why then did he invest in Tesla? Do his in and out dates match his media presentations? How does his valuations impact is investments in other comanies? Need dates and results or he is just a silly professor that talks a good game. He may even be as good as Gordon.

 

[2daMoon]

View attachment 614269

Start the speculation!

FWIW

from Wikipedia

Prometheus Unbound is a four-act lyrical drama by Percy Bysshe Shelley, first published in 1820.[1] It is concerned with the torments of the Greek mythological figure Prometheus, who defies the gods and gives fire to humanity, for which he is subjected to eternal punishment and suffering at the hands of Zeus.

Drew a blank (on Demolition Man) after that, then ...

A search for "Demolition Man" and "Prometheus Unbound" turned up this, which sentiment seemed to fit.

... even if it is a different Stallone character.

 

[Green Pete]

FWIW

from Wikipedia

Prometheus Unbound is a four-act lyrical drama by Percy Bysshe Shelley, first published in 1820.[1] It is concerned with the torments of the Greek mythological figure Prometheus, who defies the gods and gives fire to humanity, for which he is subjected to eternal punishment and suffering at the hands of Zeus.

Drew a blank after that, then ...

A search for "Demolition Man" and "Prometheus Unbound" turned up this, which sentiment seemed to fit.

... even if it is a different Stallone character.

From the wiki you linked, seemed potentially relevant.

Shelley's play concerns Prometheus' release from captivity, but unlike Aeschylus' version, there is no reconciliation between Prometheus and Jupiter (Zeus). Instead, Jupiter is abandoned by his supportive elements and falls from power, which allows Prometheus to be released.

Fossil fuels the old gods?

Edit: I'm more inclined to think it's a SpaceX reference

 

[OrthoSurg]

Far from thinking my Thursday family night would be occupied by a movie suggested by Elon’s tweet.

at least now my kids know what the year 2032 will look like.

they were fans of beyond meat ratburgers.
My 2 older sons seemed to appreciate the actress.

 

[Big Time]

Futures are “way up”
Good luck everyone

 

[2daMoon]

Edit: I'm more inclined to think it's a SpaceX reference

That was my first thought as well. Starship may give a little fire to mankind tomorrow or Saturday.

Prometheus - takeoff/flight
Demolition Man - in case of a RUD (Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly) upon return to Boca Chica

Edit: Just read on the NASASpaceflight forum the SN8 flight has been postponed to Monday, so we'll have to be satisfied watching for TSLA to resume its climb to the Stratosphere.

 

[Tyler34]

Futures are “way up”
Good luck everyone

.19%, I guess that's why you used quotes on the "way up"

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Where is the summary of results comparing his investments with his published valuations in the media? Data needed to determine if he is good or not. Does he eat his own dog food at the time that he gives his opinions or is the stuff he releases cleaned up to change dates and results. The several times I have seen him on CNBS he has mostly crapped on Tesla valuation. Why then did he invest in Tesla? Do his in and out dates match his media presentations? How does his valuations impact is investments in other comanies? Need dates and results or he is just a silly professor that talks a good game. He may even be as good as Gordon.

Before you carp on the guy, you should read his work. The one time he invested, was last year when his valuation calculations determined that the stock was a good investment (future value surpassed the risk of failure). That was kind of the lowest point in Tesla's stock price to revenue ratio. He can be lumped into the same camp as Warren Buffet, in that they don't understand disruption.

But then again, Elon Musk is trying to change people's very way of life. This much change tends to break down people's definition of "what is possible", forcing them to come up with new frameworks of understanding to match reality. Professor Damodoran is a distinguished professor of economics, who is trying to grapple with a unique force of nature. The rest of us are just unclouded by decades of history and the status quo.

TL;DR - cut the guy some slack, he does know what he's talking about. We're just at the cusp of history being made.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I wonder if he would have invested in Apple when Steve Jobs debuted the iPhone.

We look back at it now and realize that the iPhone changed the world...

He did value AAPL and AMZN: Musings on Markets: Apple and Amazon at a Trillion $: Looking Back and Looking Forward!

But typical of a value investor, he prices their stock at below the price they were trading at.

 

[Jackl1956]

Funny but...since it's sorta kinda off topic: you can place my uncle in one of those pilot's seats. A Navy dive bomber on the carrier Franklin, during the Battle of Leyte Gulf the rest of his squad, all greenhorns fresh out of Flight Training, were so paralyzed by the intense anti-aircraft fire that none would get in their planes. Uncle Nick, by then a grizzled ancient 23-year old, went aloft by himself and won the Navy's highest award, the Navy Cross, by performing what I call the 'Star Wars Maneuver': he managed to lob a 500-lb bomb right through the anchor hawse of the superbattleship Yamato. While thus breaching the "impenetrable" hull of the largest battleship the world ever has seen he did not sink it directly, but that did cripple it enough that it retired from action, to be sunk rather ignominiously shortly thereafter on the beaches of Okinawa.

Dad also was in the Battle of Leyte Gulf but saw no such glorious action. Both survived the War and stayed active in business the rest of their lives. Amazingly, both lived exactly 1 month, 1 week and 1 day into their 94th years. May all of us be so productive for so long.

My Dad served four years aboard the USS Colorado during WW2. He was an ammo handler on one of the 16 inch guns when they were struck by two kamikaze at Leyte Gulf.

During the seventies I had gone with my Dad to a barbershop in Garden Grove California. My Dad I are waiting for haircuts, when the man getting his hair cut begins staring at my Dad. After a bit, my Dad asks the man what’s up — the man apologizes and looks away. A few minutes later, he leaps from the barber chair and screams “Norm.”

They had served together four years during WW2; gotten out of the Navy, and lived around the corner from each for years. He took us to his house, and gave my Dad a cruise log from the Colorado.

It is a small world...

 

[Mo City]

Troy offers his latest forecast for 2021.

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1334718363944292353

To summarize:
Fremont: 398K
Shanghai: 432K
Berlin: 27K
Austin: 10K
Grand Total: 867K

My 2 cents:
Fremont and Shanghai look about right, though his Model Y numbers might be on the low side. If 550K in Shanghai happens as rumored, then we are looking at 1M grand total.

I believe his numbers for Berlin and Austin are way too low, but everything hinges on how quickly DBE is scaled up. IMO, the fact construction on both sites proceeds at such a rapid pace bodes well for how quickly they will ramp. Troy is being very conservative with only 37K (27K in Q4 alone) between them. It could end up being 3-4x that.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Thu, Dec 03, 2020: (Full Day's Trading)

Headline: "ATH Close as G-S Upgrades TSLA to Strong Buy"

Traded: $25,213,473,638.91 ($25.21B)
Volume: 42,600,384
VWAP: $591.86

Close: $593.38 / VWAP: 100.26%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $560

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $562.465B / $190.458B = 295.32%
Note: Yahoo Finance updated TSLA Mkt Cap for shares issued Sep 9th (per 10-Q)
​

CEO Comp. Status:

TSLA 30-day Moving Avg Market Cap: $461.98B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $344.26B

Mkt Cap req'd for 6th tranche ($350B) tracking for Tue, Dec 08, 2020
Nota Bene: Operational milestones are req'd for next tranche.
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 52.2% (52nd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 55.4% (54th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume ratio was 0.52% of Short Volume (46th Percentile Rank)​

QOTD: @Oil4AsphaultOnly "...shares outstanding..."

Comment: "2nd ATH w. highest ever Intraday Low SP

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[dc_h]

View attachment 614269

Start the speculation!

starship test launch

 

[LN1_Casey]

FWIW

from Wikipedia

Prometheus Unbound is a four-act lyrical drama by Percy Bysshe Shelley, first published in 1820.[1] It is concerned with the torments of the Greek mythological figure Prometheus, who defies the gods and gives fire to humanity, for which he is subjected to eternal punishment and suffering at the hands of Zeus.

Drew a blank (on Demolition Man) after that, then ...

A search for "Demolition Man" and "Prometheus Unbound" turned up this, which sentiment seemed to fit.

... even if it is a different Stallone character.

No, this wasn't Stallone. Stallone was in Judge Dredd, this remake was done by Karl Urban. It's one of my favorite films, but I've no idea how it would pertain to Tesla at all. Maybe Tesla defeats all odds against it to triumph in the end?

 

[FireMedic]

It appears that the full self driving beta program is being expanded… Maybe a green Friday tomorrow? Courtesy of #heydave7