Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KevinR]

For the first time since 2013, I have initiated a series of incremental limit orders to sell some shares. If my wildest estimates all come true then I will have sold 1.2% of my shares. After all this time holding (and understanding the potential of Tesla), I find this incredibly hard to do. I am consoling myself with the idea that I can buy many of those shares back after the inclusion wave. Just the thought of parting with those shares has started a grief process for me. I doubt anybody in my daily life would understand this. I suspect some of you might...

I will update this post in Christmas week if you would like.

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observer

This year has caught me off guard.

I have told my GrandPups (real grandchildren) how my mother taught me accounting. In the spring of 1955, I was 5; my Mom took me to the store to buy a kite. Decisions, decisions, decisions ~ Title of my high school speech. Back to my point. My mom showed me two kites, one for $0.15 and one for $0.25. The price included string. The box kite looked so much better than the ordinary tail kite. I looked at her and stuck out my hand with $0.15. She smiled, and said, “you can afford the $0.15 kite, but you will have to work two more weeks for the box kite.” Hauling trash in those days did not pay well But the box kite was cool

Earlier this year, I began journaling TSLA shares to my two GrandPups. Foolishly I assumed the glass ceiling of inheritance taxes was not in my future. How do you teach kids today the shares you gave them under $600 per share have exploded; and oh by the way, when you were not looking, it split by five. They could buy a squadron of kites today. Both did the math on their own

 

[mltv]

Curious to see how this QuantumScape Corporation to Host and Livestream Solid-State Battery Showcase Event on December 8, 2020 compares to battery day. Guess we find out tomorrow.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"TSLA All-Time High: Looking at Elon Musk’s Compensation + Roadster Update, Tesla Diversity Report" | Tesla Daily w. Rob Maurer

 

[Green Pete]

Curious to see how this QuantumScape Corporation to Host and Livestream Solid-State Battery Showcase Event on December 8, 2020 compares to battery day. Guess we find out tomorrow.

Ah, this must explain the 8% jump after hours

 

[StealthP3D]

My wife and I had steak for dinner on Nov 23 (when over $500).
We had steak and king crab legs for dinner tonight (over $600).
Not sure what we do when over $700... and how many days will it take?

Dungeness crab at $700 instead of King crab. Obviously!

 

[gabeincal]

Where I think analysts really fail when they compare Tesla to other automakers is in the value of software. Premium connectivity is $10/mo. A subscription FSD could be $250/mo. Assume 80% of fleet takes premium connectivity, and 20% of fleet does the FSD subscription. In a couple years the fleet will be about 5M units, so that would be 4M people paying $10/mo and 1M people paying $250/mo. That's almost $300M a month in almost pure profit. I don't see Toyota, VW, Ford, GM, or anyone else pulling in that kind of software revenue. Maybe they'll make a few hundred K a year selling GPS map upgrades, but that's it.

And each year those numbers will continue to rise as the fleet gets bigger. The take rate numbers I just made up, so they could be significantly higher (or lower), but it's not that crazy to me that Tesla could be making close to $1B a month in software revenue in 5 years. And that's w/o any kind of robotaxi network.

I'm sorry but I don't understand how Tesla is keeping 100% of the payments for premium connectivity. Surely, they pay AT&T a decent sum for the fleet....?

 

[UncaNed]

So much this. Still trying to conquer this tendency myself. I'm a very risk-averse person, and it's not easy to do.

Problem is we usually fail to count the lost opportunity of a risk not taken.

 

[AudubonB]

Not your Moderator
Not your thread's originator/"owner"

But somebodies decided that poetry did not belong in this thread.

Well, who am I to rain on that cretinous neanderthalism? Not I. Not today, at any rate.

BUT.....

those who wish, and who share other worthies' high regard for Canada's greatest folk singer of all time, might saddle up and mosey on along to the just-opened thread commemorating the upcoming arrival of a Supercharger in beautiful Canmore, BC:

Supercharger - Canmore, AB

 

[SO16]

This is exactly what I do...and I believe I do make a difference when defending Tesla. But I am only one person and like I said, perception becomes reality for a lot of people. Which is why FUD against Tesla can be effective for a lot of people.

also, thanks to the people that actually responded to me with helpful information instead of just hitting disagree or funny. I am new here and I want to make sure I am not an idiot for investing in Tesla or wanting to buy a Tesla. When most people in my life say Tesla is overvalued, or has poor quality and service, it makes you think. Just doing my due diligence.

There is a difference between you stating Tesla has all these issues and then later stating it’s perception. You initially sounded kinda trollish. Hence my initial disagree. Tesla’s reputation is improving, not the other way around. But as you know, you can always find naysayers.

JD powers survey is a joke. Here’s a video explaining why.

Consumer reports autopilot rating is a joke. Here’s a video explaining why.

Until people actually drive a Tesla, they don’t have a clue....at all....period.

 

[lafrisbee]

View attachment 615473 View attachment 615474 View attachment 615475 View attachment 615476 I guess my short shorts couldn’t have arrived on a better day!

what size? My wife wears the smallest available (and they are for HER...I suspect different for some on here). And I think they are doing production of the most common sizes first.

 

[cusetownusa]

There is a difference between you stating Tesla has all these issues and then later stating it’s perception. You initially sounded kinda trollish. Hence my initial disagree. Tesla’s reputation is improving, not the other way around. But as you know, you can always find naysayers.

JD powers survey is a joke. Here’s a video explaining why.

Consumer reports autopilot rating is a joke. Here’s a video explaining why.

Until people actually drive a Tesla, they don’t have a clue....at all....period.

thanks for the follow up...but in my defense I never said Tesla had all of these issues, I specifically asked about the reputation (which to me means perception as I believe perception is reality) and about a new competitors vehicle and how that may affect future sales and or stock price. Never was trying to be toxic, just trying to gather information as to why I should stay invested and still want to buy a Tesla.

I agree that Tesla’s reputation is improving but that is just my opinion. I like to get other peoples opinion, albeit, they may be a bit biased here. Can’t wait to drive my first Tesla so experience it first hand.

 

[SO16]

thanks for the follow up...but in my defense I never said Tesla had all of these issues, I specifically asked about the reputation (which to me means perception as I believe perception is reality) and about a new competitors vehicle and how that may affect future sales and or stock price. Never was trying to be toxic, just trying to gather information as to why I should stay invested and still want to buy a Tesla.

I agree that Tesla’s reputation is improving but that is just my opinion. I like to get other peoples opinion, albeit, they may be a bit biased here. Can’t wait to drive my first Tesla so experience it first hand.

This was the line I was referring to. (Not a question.). Oh well. No big deal.

but I know a Tesla is starting to get a bad reputation

FUD has been around since their inception. It seems to increase when their stock price increases. It sticks to people that seem to want to believe it. Often first hand experience dispels that belief.

 

[MXWing]

So as not to trade entirely in a bubble, ideas on what I should be doing due to Tesla entering the index?

Should I buy puts in APPL, MSFT, AMZN and FB as they will be sold off the index to accommodate TSLA?

Or should I long FB calls? Musk said he would buy Facebook so he can delete it.

Did Elon Musk Offer to Buy and Delete Facebook?

Supposedly it's satire but it's REAL TO ME DAMNIT.

What's the takeout price going to be for TSLA on FB?

813 Billion just to clown Zuck would be a better use than cutting us dividend checks.

 

[BlackS]

Forward Observer

This year has caught me off guard.

I have told my GrandPups (real grandchildren) how my mother taught me accounting. In the spring of 1955, I was 5; my Mom took me to the store to buy a kite. Decisions, decisions, decisions ~ Title of my high school speech. Back to my point. My mom showed me two kites, one for $0.15 and one for $0.25. The price included string. The box kite looked so much better than the ordinary tail kite. I looked at her and stuck out my hand with $0.15. She smiled, and said, “you can afford the $0.15 kite, but you will have to work two more weeks for the box kite.” Hauling trash in those days did not pay well But the box kite was cool

Earlier this year, I began journaling TSLA shares to my two GrandPups. Foolishly I assumed the glass ceiling of inheritance taxes was not in my future. How do you teach kids today the shares you gave them under $600 per share have exploded; and oh by the way, when you were not looking, it split by five. They could buy a squadron of kites today. Both did the math on their own

Just give it a few years and they can buy the kite manufacturer....good luck trying to explain that

 

[cusetownusa]

This was the line I was referring to. (Not a question.). Oh well. No big deal.



FUD has been around since their inception. It seems to increase when their stock price increases. It sticks to people that seem to want to believe it. Often first hand experience dispels that belief.

maybe you are right based on how I worded it. When I wrote gaining a bad reputation I wasn’t personally saying I believe Tesla has all these issue, I was just referring to the reputation of Tesla that publications like JD powers and Consumer reports portray about quality issues put in the public mind and if people here are concerned this could affect future sales.

the more I think about it based on some of the helpful responses I received, is that all company’s will have people that hate on it no matter what. Not all companies, no matter how successful (ie Apple) have universal positive agreement that they have the best product. Overall, Tesla will succeed regardless of the many haters out there and that more legit EV options will help promote Tesla and the entire EV movement.

 

[2daMoon]

FWIW

Elon Musk Reportedly Relocated His Foundation To Texas, Fueling Rumors He’ll Move There Too

 

[MC3OZ]

Musk said he would buy Facebook so he can delete it.

IMO "social media" especially Twitter and Facebook only have one substantial asset, their customer base.

Anyone can duplicate the technology at anytime, make a better product, and become fashionable.

I'm aware Facebook does have some good 3D Virtual Reality tech...

Anyway rather than buy Facebook, Musk should make a better version of Facebook, that would be cheaper, and might actually improve the world.

Like you, I dislike Facebook and Zuck, I always have, it adds nothing constructive to society or the economy and from what I can gather, is a hotbed of insults, and nonsense arguments..

 

[Beezer_9]

what size? My wife wears the smallest available (and they are for HER...I suspect different for some on here). And I think they are doing production of the most common sizes first.

Size small for my GF but now I’m going to shadow box them along with Tesla’s stock chart as a commemorative trophy from all the shorts out there!

 

[Paul_SF]

Do the math.