Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

Uber is selling their autonomous driving program. Makes one wonder if Tesla’s now-obvious lead is making their competitors give up hopes on catching up to them.

Article is paywalled, but essentially they are transferring their 1,200-person team to competitor Aurora while taking a partial stake, with their stake now valued at about $4B, compared to its prior $7.5B valuation earlier last year.

Uber abandons effort to develop own self-driving vehicle
Subscribe to read | Financial Times

I'm not an Uber fan at all and have serious doubts about their future. However, to be fair, this is just an admission they don't have the competence to develop autonomy on their own. It's logical to delegate it to another company. They should have done this long ago.

 

[StealthP3D]

Uber is selling their autonomous driving program. Makes one wonder if Tesla’s now-obvious lead is making their competitors give up hopes on catching up to them.

Article is paywalled, but essentially they are transferring their 1,200-person team to competitor Aurora while taking a partial stake, with their stake now valued at about $4B, compared to its prior $7.5B valuation earlier last year.

Uber abandons effort to develop own self-driving vehicle
Subscribe to read | Financial Times

Well that's uber surprising that their expensive LIDAR didn't bring them success!

 

[pz1975]

Although there is no way to calculate such a thing, I wonder what the collective profits from TSLA are solely based on this investors forum. The ability to withstand dips and continually accumulate more TSLA due to the accurate information presented here vs. anywhere else one could read about TSLA and Tesla is invaluable. I would estimate that I owe 80-90% of my TSLA profits to this forum. Collectively among us as well as posters who have left over the years the amount must be in the $100s of millions.

 

[EVortex]

Astonishing lack of coverage about Toyota's new BEV platform. I saw only this: Toyota announces new all-electric SUV coming soon - Electrek

In years gone by this would have been the rallying cry for bears and hateful journalists alike; the moment when the biggest of the big boys finally deigns it time to dip their +4 Toe Of Crushing into the water and announce a vehicle that will "kill Tesla." If anyone could do it, Toyota "the Priusmaker" Motor Corp could do it, right?

Instead we get nary a whimper from the press... not even CNBC, the Verge or L.A. Times mentioned it.

We're in a new era. Even the press knows there is no such thing as a Tesla Killer now, and stay away from using that term. Legacy automakers, once lauded for their ability to effortlessly churn out large numbers of pixel-perfect cars with no panel gaps (something Tesla simply can't do, boo hoo), are in fact clearly seen to be lagging by varying degrees from "quite a bit" to "a bloody enormous amount" - with no clear road for any of them to catch up or surpass Tesla.

Have we moved along another notch on the Mahatma Ghandi Scale?

Wow, not. Toyota is like a kitchen without a cook.

 

[Causalien]

Although there is no way to calculate such a thing, I wonder what the collective profits from TSLA are solely based on this investors forum. The ability to withstand dips and continually accumulate more TSLA due to the accurate information presented here vs. anywhere else one could read about TSLA and Tesla is invaluable. I would estimate that I owe 80-90% of my TSLA profits to this forum. Collectively among us as well as posters who have left over the years the amount must be in the $100s of millions.

You are off by at least a factor of 10. There's a member called Billionaire.

 

[FlamingPIG]

Although there is no way to calculate such a thing, I wonder what the collective profits from TSLA are solely based on this investors forum. The ability to withstand dips and continually accumulate more TSLA due to the accurate information presented here vs. anywhere else one could read about TSLA and Tesla is invaluable. I would estimate that I owe 80-90% of my TSLA profits to this forum. Collectively among us as well as posters who have left over the years the amount must be in the $100s of millions.

A anonymous poll will be really interesting.
1. How long you been on tmc?
2. How much gain in Tsla?

 

[S3XY]

This is exactly what I do...and I believe I do make a difference when defending Tesla. But I am only one person and like I said, perception becomes reality for a lot of people. Which is why FUD against Tesla can be effective for a lot of people.

also, thanks to the people that actually responded to me with helpful information instead of just hitting disagree or funny. I am new here and I want to make sure I am not an idiot for investing in Tesla or wanting to buy a Tesla. When most people in my life say Tesla is overvalued, or has poor quality and service, it makes you think. Just doing my due diligence.

It's pretty obvious why you got those reactions. It'd be like going on the Stamp Collecting Club bulletin board and posting "Should I start collecting stamps or is it just a waste of time?"

 

[FrankSG]

More insights from @FrankSG on TSLA over the next couple of weeks:

https://twitter.com/FrankPeelen/status/1336161566018826243

It's more-or-less what I posted on TMC the other day:

I've been leaning more towards some buying pressure being postponed until the week of the 21st - 24th, yes.

The closing cross on the 18th seems like the ideal timing to buy for the indexers. It minimizes risk, and lets them add at the exact price TSLA will be added to the S&P 500. I'm sure that during most inclusions there is enough liquidity during the closing cross to accommodate most indexers, but I'm not sure that's going to be the case with TSLA.

As of right now, I think low volume indicates there hasn't been anywhere near enough front-running and speculation to accommodate indexers on the 18th. I expect that more front-running will happen over the next two weeks, but will it be enough to accommodate the indexers on the 18th? I'm not sure. I see a scenario where there simply won't be enough shares during the closing cross on the 18th, causing some of the buying to spill over to the week after.

I also think it's a lot less likely there would be a dip in this scenario. Most speculators (which is what would cause a peak and dip) would get paid on the 18th, but be insufficient to satisfy demand, thus it'd simply run up more in the week after until stock price settles.



I'm considering changing my 18Dec calls to 24Dec expirations. Most of my S&P calls are 24Dec expirations, I just have one position in 18Dec expirations. I might just keep them though. It'll depend on the cost.

 

[FrankSG]

Although there is no way to calculate such a thing, I wonder what the collective profits from TSLA are solely based on this investors forum. The ability to withstand dips and continually accumulate more TSLA due to the accurate information presented here vs. anywhere else one could read about TSLA and Tesla is invaluable. I would estimate that I owe 80-90% of my TSLA profits to this forum. Collectively among us as well as posters who have left over the years the amount must be in the $100s of millions.

I think you can add a 0 to that. I think it's at least close to 10 figures.

 

[FrankSG]

Frankfurt 23 min after open:

 

[dakh]

I've been leaning more towards some buying pressure being postponed until the week of the 21st - 24th, yes.

The closing cross on the 18th seems like the ideal timing to buy for the indexers. It minimizes risk, and lets them add at the exact price TSLA will be added to the S&P 500. I'm sure that during most inclusions there is enough liquidity during the closing cross to accommodate most indexers, but I'm not sure that's going to be the case with TSLA.

As of right now, I think low volume indicates there hasn't been anywhere near enough front-running and speculation to accommodate indexers on the 18th. I expect that more front-running will happen over the next two weeks, but will it be enough to accommodate the indexers on the 18th? I'm not sure. I see a scenario where there simply won't be enough shares during the closing cross on the 18th, causing some of the buying to spill over to the week after.

I also think it's a lot less likely there would be a dip in this scenario. Most speculators (which is what would cause a peak and dip) would get paid on the 18th, but be insufficient to satisfy demand, thus it'd simply run up more in the week after until stock price settles.

From what I can tell if the cross price ends up being outside of the +-10% window, it'll have to stay at the edge of the window. I interpret this as if the bidders placed orders outside of the 10% window, their bids are invalidated and they won't transact. Which will in turn limit the volume at close. It seems kinda far fetched that so much of the selling side is prepped to place "at close" orders exactly within that window. They'll have to decide within 5 min of close if they wanna play or not at about current price. This also means there might be a mighty run-up to close on the 18th due to buy/sell side imbalance, and then somewhat of a drop on open on Monday if indeed most of the demand is satisfied on the 18th close.

Man this is going to be fascinating to watch what happens. Unfortunately I'll be on a tropical beach and likely with no connection.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Sort of OT. Posting because some might be interested in the auction and for investors it's relevant the level of fraud in the solar business. Is this sort of thing common?

Mobile Solar Generator Trailers Being Auctioned Off Today

Well, this is a new one. A bankruptcy auction is taking place in which of hundreds of mobile solar generator trailers are being auctioned off for, well, the best price.You can find the products and bid on them at BidIndustrial.com. The auctions are taking place in California, Nevada, North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, and Florida....

The auction stems from DC Solar going bankrupt. The Wikipedia page for DC Solar starts out like this: “DC Solar Solutions Inc., trading as DC Solar, was a Californian solar power supplier company. The company was shut down by the Federal Bureau of Investigation in 2018 after it turned out to be a billion-dollar Ponzi scheme.

 

[MikeC]

Breaking: Tesla China Achieves Record Delivery of 21,604 China-Made Model 3 in November, 78% MoM increased

 

[jeewee3000]

My European broker Binck sends me a daily "Stock Market Alarm Clock"-newsletter around 9 AM local time in which it sums up the most interesting market related events from yesterday and the coming day. Be it a merger, some earnings report or a general macro trend.

They always close the e-mail with a trivia item.

Today's trivia reads (free translation):

"Did you know that... speculators already lost 35 billion USD this year by shorting Tesla (anticipating a falling stock price)? That's more than the loss of the entire U.S. airline industry."

 

[MABMAB]

premarket US better than Frankfurt

 

[MABMAB]

Yesterday we were on speakerphone with a financial advisor. They offered unpublished bonuses to move money from our other broker over to them. During the call our accounts grew by many times the offered bonuses. I nearly wanted to laugh at the offer!

We are long time hosts on Airbnb, have a chance to get some IPO stock. Not gonna do it for many reasons but me thinks staying with TSLA is better long term, better understood.

I needed a new lawnmower battery the other day. Went to the dealer. First time as we pull in there is a man and wife hovering over some souped up ATV for sale, the way they were draped on it suggested they were laying claim to ownership. Well the battery was the wrong size, had to go back. This time man and wife were accompanied by 3-4 kids, proudly all draped over the death trap ATV. As I round the corner near them, the youngest gleefully screams "there is a tesla", the thrill at just seeing one much greater than the joy she took in poppa's new toy.

Parents might not know the car but the kids know the future!

Ride the bull!

 

[cricketman]

A anonymous poll will be really interesting.
1. How long you been on tmc?
2. How much gain in Tsla?

1. I bought my first shares in 2016 when I joined this form (or at least started reading it)
2. Approaching 8 figures!

Can't quite believe it myself..... This forum has definitely been the most valuable source of knowledge about Tesla during that time and gave me strength to believe that I (and we, and Elon, and Tesla) were right during all the FUD!

 

[Runarbt]

premarket US better than Frankfurt

Oooh..

Pre-Market High $666.26 (04:17:58)

Edit: A hidden msg to short sellers. "He is coming for you.."

Edit2: I need 5% climb every day until 12/18 - so my $950 calls will stay alive.. come on $tsla, you can do this. ;-)
Edit3: Pre-Market High $667.85 (04:21:56)
Edit4: Pre-Market High $668.48 (04:25:47)
Edit5: Pre-Market High $669.00 (04:26:33)

 

[amolina]

It's more-or-less what I posted on TMC the other day:

Thank you so much for your valuable insights @FrankSG, @Artful Dodger and others.

We know that the volume is low when compared to a few months earlier, however, is it fair that we compare the volume when SP was 1/2, 1/3, or even 1/5 earlier this year.

Do you have experience with Volume behavior in a stock that has ~2-3X in less than a year? When stock is more expensive, there should be less buying power even when new investors jump into the stock??

 

[MABMAB]

Although there is no way to calculate such a thing, I wonder what the collective profits from TSLA are solely based on this investors forum. The ability to withstand dips and continually accumulate more TSLA due to the accurate information presented here vs. anywhere else one could read about TSLA and Tesla is invaluable. I would estimate that I owe 80-90% of my TSLA profits to this forum. Collectively among us as well as posters who have left over the years the amount must be in the $100s of millions.

I do not attribute any of my profits to TMC. I was bullish long before I found this place. My Profits are attributed to leaning into the lessons of the market, primarily through failure and missed opportunities. I wanted and desired more and worked long and hard for it. I ran through a cattle chute full of people that whipped on me with disagreement and good logic and talking points. I walked over the burning coals of doubt and through the acid rain of falling prices. I bought new highs when others were selling. I kept bulls on my side but kept bears closer. My profits are born of road trips to see beta model S with mercedes benz seats and of trips to see/sit production model S and the battery back on wheels on display, waiting in long lines to get in. The profits are born of a loving spouse shocking me with belief when my weak hands wanted to sell.

I suggest anyone solely in TSLA due to TMC to do there own work, build a stronger foundation.