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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

2daMoon

Mostly Harmless
Nov 25, 2020
749
5,450
Terra
The thing is, as far as I know, Elon Musk has not shown much empathy about the jump in inequality, and he has only jokes to tell on this matter (as far as I know). He may deserve his control of the companies he leads, but his lack of concern for an gianormous problem will probably worsen (at some point, the rise in inequality destroy the fabric of society). This threathens all his enterprises so he'd better show some empathy and try to be constructive on that front (instead of just making jokes about Sanders).

And the fact that how he spends his money is, so far, focused entirely on saving the planet and the species isn't philanthropic enough?
 

Sofie

HODL: "I’d rather be a part of it, than watch”
Jul 31, 2020
214
998
Florida
So this raise came out if the blue with premarket shares trading at $669. Any chance they were executed around that price? I assume we would have noticed the volume? Or does it transact at open perhaps? Just seems a strong coincidence that SP was rocketing when this hit. And we did find out the last one was executed immediately.
Yep exactly what I thought happened there!

anyone have any thoughts on this?
 

mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
13,024
39,083
Michigan
Not to rain on anyone's parade, but it has been my opinion for long, that building additional factories is not simply a money problem. Sure, a couple billion in the bank helps, but Tesla is still a relatively small company with limited human resources. Right now they are building 2 factories in parallel. How many in-house experts do you think they have that can recycle their GF1 and Shanghai factory building experience?

So let's say they build the shell, the most trivial par of the whole exercise. Now they need to tool the factory, select, hire and train staff and start pilot production. Still doesn't sound too scary?! No problem, now they need to ramp from 100 cars a week to 7000 a week and need to put experienced people in charge of that who have already done the same at Fremont or Shanghai.

So at some point their limit will be experienced, battle-proven in-house staff when it comes to building or expanding factories at the same time.

Experienced personnel is a non-issue (for sane growth rates). Same thing as corporate franchisees, you train people alongside the experienced ones, then they go train the people at the next site. Exponential growth is supported on a yearly factory build rate, as long as people are learning to fish.
 

bkp_duke

Well-Known Member
May 15, 2016
5,186
16,965
San Diego, CA
Just like the people I said were foolish to run away with their "profits" last week at $550, the people running away with profits at $630 will look foolish in a week too. Shrug. Can't save everyone from themselves. :rolleyes:

Sadly, there are more of these people than I believe most in this thread acknowledge.

My FIL has a sizeable position in TSLA, and I've been arguing with him for the past 2 weeks to not even consider selling any of it and tired to explain very hard why (hats off to those in this thread providing that reasoning). So far it has worked, but I am 100% certain that without the information here, he would have already bailed out of his position and been happy with his gains. There probably is a fair bit of that going around right now.
 

Unpilot

Sell order in at $5999.99
Dec 2, 2017
4,850
37,393
A Coast
My options...my options

tenor (4).gif
 

MD70

Member
Aug 4, 2018
129
1,002
West Yorkshire, UK
I think the capital raised should be used to:
1. Increase the spare parts inventory so that delays no longer occur for this reason.
2. Increase the number of locations where vehicles can be repaired so that more people have a service centre nearer to them.
Whilst this isn’t as popular as building factories it’s something that needs to be improved as the number of cumulative vehicles sold will increase and in the long if service isn’t sorted it will create issues.
 

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,608
21,267
Singapore
You must be aware of the difference between the two events? The drop you describe happened after the S&P committee decided not to include TSLA. This time we are on the cusp of being included, with a need for at least 120 million shares and likely a lot more.

Don't forget about macros. SPY and NASDAQ dropped 7-8% in the week after the past offering.
 

hoang51

Member
Aug 22, 2013
878
796
NoVA
Running away with profits is never foolish, just sub-optimal!

If timing is right, it would be optimal, especially for those who bought on margin. I for one fall in that camp. I unloaded all my margin TSLA shares earlier today for a decent profit and plan to buy back in later at a discount. The margin loan eats into the gains if holding the large amount of shares over time if TSLA trades sideways. But my cash bought TSLA shares are going nowhere. They're gold and won't be sold anytime soon.
 

Bobfitz1

Active Member
Sep 24, 2012
1,176
3,630
Ludlow, Vt
Not to rain on anyone's parade, but it has been my opinion for long, that building additional factories is not simply a money problem. Sure, a couple billion in the bank helps, but Tesla is still a relatively small company with limited human resources. Right now they are building 2 factories in parallel. How many in-house experts do you think they have that can recycle their GF1 and Shanghai factory building experience?

So let's say they build the shell, the most trivial par of the whole exercise. Now they need to tool the factory, select, hire and train staff and start pilot production. Still doesn't sound too scary?! No problem, now they need to ramp from 100 cars a week to 7000 a week and need to put experienced people in charge of that who have already done the same at Fremont or Shanghai.

So at some point their limit will be experienced, battle-proven in-house staff when it comes to building or expanding factories at the same time.

Building a new factory and bringing it up to design production is a complex task in all the ways you outline. However I believe the major engineering challenge is building the various lines to manufacture a given model the first time. That is where your very best engineering talent is needed. Replicating an already worked out M3 or MY line is not (IMO) the same level of difficulty. It isn't cookie cutter because Tesla always seeks to improve a model line with any new innovations ready to implement. Look at how fast they have managed to ramp M3 in Shanghai and over the next few quarters the same with MY. The in-house experts are mentoring and supervising the newer generation of top class engineers who will be working to iron out difficulties ramping Berlin and Texas manufacturing lines. Plus some of the innovations like giga castings ultimately reduce the overall complexity of the revised lines for M3 and MY.
The super experienced engineer limitation is a limiting factor to how many new model lines can be figured out in a given period of time more than a limit on ramping factories to build more of models already brought to high production rates.
 

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,258
25,636
Sadly, there are more of these people than I believe most in this thread acknowledge.

My FIL has a sizeable position in TSLA, and I've been arguing with him for the past 2 weeks to not even consider selling any of it and tired to explain very hard why (hats off to those in this thread providing that reasoning). So far it has worked, but I am 100% certain that without the information here, he would have already bailed out of his position and been happy with his gains. There probably is a fair bit of that going around right now.
Some time ago I disclosed here that I had sold a few shares. I ddi that in order to establish a cash reserve adequate to ensure that all my cash needs could be met without either borrowing or liquidating other investments. Of course, had I kept those shares I have more wealth today. Frankly I don't need more wealth as much as I need absolute peace of mind.

Many of us think such attitudes are short-sighted. However, adequate cash reserves is fundamental to sound financial management. I had put capital gains ahead of that prudence for some time, assuming I could always generate more cash. Now I am no longer generating outside income. Ergo, much larger cash reserves.

It is always prudent to realize that financial management is quite different depending on ones sources and quantities of reserves and earned income.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
6,895
25,148
Philadelphia, PA
Having taken a step back, and with the benefit of my morning tea, this raise makes a lot of sense. Just as much sense as the "share price will get hammered" comments from Elon previously. Both IMO are designed to temper run away markets and avoid a massive spike and equally massive sell-off post inclusion.

A couple of weeks ago my assumption was we'd enter the buying window at $650 and run up from there. With SP at $669 overnight, we were obviously way ahead of that schedule. Now maybe we end the week at $650 and avoid something bad. Perhaps fanboy logic, but if this didn't happen....where the hell do you go from a $670 open today?
 
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