Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[WarpedOne]

These "investment strategies" are same as "go and find gold".
Why not? Of course it works!
But in the end the profits went to the shovel seller(s).

It is exactly the same with day trading, TA and such. The house will take most of the profit. Only a select few will have real gains just so more people come in.

Buy and go away (= hold).

 

[Sancho]

The ambivalence about whether to do this latest $5B raise, as expressed by Musk in the WSJ interview, speaks volumes about the executive team’s confidence in the future (near and far). In the interview he seems indifferent whether they did the raise now or not.

If they thought $650 was artificially high due to S&P inclusion frontrunning, they would be more eager to raise the money now. But if they think the SP is going to be at least that high, if not higher, when they need capital again, then what’s the rush?

They’ve got an expansion plan. They already have the capital to execute that plan at least in the short term, and when they need capital to keep executing the plan down the road, they are supremely confident they can raise it later with minimal dilution.

For a capital intensive business that is expanding global manufacturing rapidly, that’s bullish AF.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I plan on using the bow for my Tesla when it comes in.

Date hasn’t pushed again today, so... hopeful?

 

[StealthP3D]

I think Rob has a very good analysis of how Quantumscape might impact Tesla, at least given what can be easily known right now. Hint: the answer is probably not much at all for at least 6-8 years or longer (potentially forever).

I watched the recent Quantumscape Zoom call and it was lengthy and repetitive and short on details, particularly timeframes and costs. To be fair, QS had already released some info on timeframes and costs and the Zoom call was just to focus on the more exciting aspects of the potential of their solid state battery without much of the most important stuff from a competitive and investment perspective like time and cost. Rob's video is a much shorter and more information dense summary that also includes a basic analysis of time and costs as previously presented by QS:

QuantumScape’s Solid-State Battery vs. Tesla, QS Stock Analysis, Tesla China November Sales - YouTube

 

[Green Pete]

I think Rob has a very good analysis of how Quantumscape might impact Tesla, at least given what can be easily known right now. Hint: the answer is probably not much at all for at least 6-8 years or longer (potentially forever).

I watched the recent Quantumscape Zoom call and it was lengthy and repetitive and short on details, particularly timeframes and costs. To be fair, QS had already released some info on timeframes and costs and the Zoom call was just to focus on the more exciting aspects of the potential of their solid state battery without much of the most important stuff from a competitive and investment perspective like time and cost. Rob's video is a much shorter and more information dense summary that also includes a basic analysis of time and costs as previously presented by QS:

QuantumScape’s Solid-State Battery vs. Tesla, QS Stock Analysis, Tesla China November Sales - YouTube

I found that zoom to be really untrustworthy. But given the makeup of the board it still has gravitas.

Enough gravitas to be up 20% premarket again after going up 30% yesterday.

But by their own admission they are 5 years out from anything so I agree with your conclusion.

 

[FS_FRA]

TL.0 trading at €537.70 / $651.19 this morning in FRA.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

Blink just received the exclusivity for Burger King parking lots for I don't know how many years. The CEO claims he has rights for up to 20 years in some parking lots. This means if there is demand they can add charging stations but NOBODY else can in that particular parking lot. I understand why the stock is up 1411% this year. It makes sense to me.

It doesn't mean I would own the stock though.

 

[Green Pete]

Blink just received the exclusivity for Burger King parking lots for I don't know how many years. The CEO claims he has rights for up to 20 years in some parking lots. This means if there is demand they can add charging stations but NOBODY else can in that particular parking lot. I understand why the stock is up 1411% this year. It makes sense to me.

Holy crap. That's just crazy. Who spends enough time at burger king that a 25 mile per hour charge is worth plugging in to.

I've had to use a blink charger once, in Seattle. And it was a frustrating experience for which I didn't feel like it was worth the effort when I unplugged in the end.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I found that zoom to be really untrustworthy. But given the makeup of the board it still has gravitas.

Enough gravitas to be up 20% premarket again after going up 30% yesterday.

But by their own admission they are 5 years out from anything so I agree with your conclusion.

That's nuts. It puts QS at a $26b valuation for a company that won't have any revenue for 4 years. There has got to be a crash in the non-tesla ev bubble at some point.

 

[Twiztlock]

T minus 5 minutes for max q…

The max q condition is the point when an investor’s portfolio aerospace vehicle's atmospheric flight reaches maximum dynamic pressure from pre-market announcements. This is a significant factor in the design of such a portfolio vehicles because the gain/loss because of aerodynamic structural load on them is proportional to the contents of such announcements dynamic pressure. This may impose limits on the stock’s vehicle's flight envelope.
(Max q - Wikipedia)

(almost *sugar* my pants yesterday when I saw that happening…
Gave me a chance though to sell some lower-leverage stuff and buy back higher-leverage, basically adding a another Falcon booster for the way back up )

OK, throttling down for max q now
(and then back up to that $665-ish where we were before this all happened yesterday!)

 

[mongo]

So, we all know the tired li(n)e "Tesla only makes a profit due to credits". Even though, if you remove the credits and the taxes paid on the credit income, Tesla made a profit last quarter.

Well, what if you could near instantly boost the GAAP bottom line by around $170 million a quarter, over $600 million a year?

That's what paying off their debt does:

Note: I'm not sure if paying off all the debt this flows from is the plan. Current (debt and leases) and long term liabilities are each at around $3 Billion and I am not an accountant.

 

[cliffski]

I think it is very, very smart for tesla to use the cap raise to pay down debt. I know the corporate mantra for many years has been 'load up on debt and who cares', but we are entering uncharted waters in terms of global economies, with pandemics, political instability, climate change and who knows what direction interest rates will go in the future. Having little to no debt is an incredibly strong position to be in, and I'm very happy as an investor to see them take that step.

It also weakens the argument for bailing out car companies that get in trouble, as wise politicians can ask why the so-called experts at GM, Ford etc did not manage their debt like tesla did when they come begging to the government for help (again).

Also its a good point to be able to make to potential car buyers. Do you want a car from a financially stable company? or one from a debt-laden dinosaur that might crash and burn next year?

 

[vikings123]

You don’t want to miss this!

CNBC is going to debate “Elon is moving to Texas” topic next. Amazing!

 

[Artful Dodger]

08:00 a.m. Whistle: Wed, 09 Dec 2020

TSLA share price: $648.97 -0.91 -0.14%

Volume: 698,272 shares (Brisk)

Cheers!

 

[Unpilot]

08:00 a.m. Whistle: Wed, 09 Dec 2020

TSLA share price: $648.97 -0.91 -0.14%

Volume: 698,272 shares (Brisk)

View attachment 615906

Cheers!

And at 8:05 SP was 652

 

[Nocturnal]

Holy crap. That's just crazy. Who spends enough time at burger king that a 25 mile per hour charge is worth plugging in to.

I've had to use a blink charger once, in Seattle. And it was a frustrating experience for which I didn't feel like it was worth the effort when I unplugged in the end.

Premarket OT: I'm not familiar at all with blink. I have a position with Chargepoint/SBE myself. I've used their charger extensively myself and even worked with them directly on some billing interfaces through my day job. Easy to use software and nice customer experience that just works. I don't think they are some amazing company but they are in the right place and right time to really take advantage of this green energy push.

You don’t want to miss this!

CNBC is going to debate “Elon is moving to Texas” topic next. Amazing!

Argh. Basically have the internet is milking this topic and it's driving me crazy.

I think it is very, very smart for tesla to use the cap raise to pay down debt. I know the corporate mantra for many years has been 'load up on debt and who cares', but we are entering uncharted waters in terms of global economies, with pandemics, political instability, climate change and who knows what direction interest rates will go in the future. Having little to no debt is an incredibly strong position to be in, and I'm very happy as an investor to see them take that step.

It also weakens the argument for bailing out car companies that get in trouble, as wise politicians can ask why the so-called experts at GM, Ford etc did not manage their debt like tesla did when they come begging to the government for help (again).

Also its a good point to be able to make to potential car buyers. Do you want a car from a financially stable company? or one from a debt-laden dinosaur that might crash and burn next year?

In the standard MBA environment you are taught that it's stupid to not load up on debt due to tax reasons as it's basically free money. Technically that's true but it does increase risk as you described. Perhaps this is a good strategy for stable companies with flat revenue but we all know that Tesla isn't in that category for many reasons.

 

[Twiztlock]

T minus 5 minutes for max q…

The max q condition is the point when an investor’s portfolio aerospace vehicle's atmospheric flight reaches maximum dynamic pressure from pre-market announcements. This is a significant factor in the design of such a portfolio vehicles because the gain/loss because of aerodynamic structural load on them is proportional to the contents of such announcements dynamic pressure. This may impose limits on the stock’s vehicle's flight envelope.
(Max q - Wikipedia)

(almost *sugar* my pants yesterday when I saw that happening…
Gave me a chance though to sell some lower-leverage stuff and buy back higher-leverage, basically adding a another Falcon booster for the way back up )

OK, throttling down for max q now
(and then back up to that $665-ish where we were before this all happened yesterday!)

Roger, TSLA, go for throttle up!

 

[JustMe]

Holy crap. That's just crazy. Who spends enough time at burger king that a 25 mile per hour charge is worth plugging in to.

I've had to use a blink charger once, in Seattle. And it was a frustrating experience for which I didn't feel like it was worth the effort when I unplugged in the end.

I could see this as being useful for folks who have no way to charge an EV at home or work. Adding fifteen miles of range over lunch could be enough for a city dweller. Of course they better make sure people don’t end up wasting lots of time with codes and credit cards and broken charging spots

 

[jareade]

Breaking news, the geniuses at JP Morgan have raised their TSLA price target 12.5%.

...

From $80 to $90.

Really. Did they hire Gordon Johnson to help come up with that PT?

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman raised the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $90.00 (from $80.00) while maintaining a Underweight ....

Pay site link: jpmorgan tsla - Google Search

 

[FS_FRA]

Breaking news, the geniuses at JP Morgan have raised their TSLA price target 12.5%.

You're not moonlighting as Wolf Blitzer by any chance?