Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

Can't imagine how many R2's Elon will need to pump out to satisfy TMC and other TSLA longs demand. Literally tens of thousands of somewhat nerdy 48 year old newly retired middle aged men will be waiting in line. They probably need to bump up the price.

Who you calling 'nerdy'?????

And therein something else to make my day: once again being called “48 y-o”

 

[SOULPEDL]

Santa's coming early! And we have family from Costa Rica coming. LG

 

[Drumheller]

My model y was picked up Oct 24th and has Vin 631xx. Gives an idea of how production is ramping.

 

[FS_FRA]

Alright....so I was offline for most of the day so far....HVAC work on the house, keeping me from actual work, keeping me from TMC / TSLA

Did I miss anything?

SP doing alright?

 

[Krugerrand]

You can afford a 4 slice toaster. Unless tou purposefully didn't tell your wife how much tsla you have. Honestly little life improvement like that should be looked into.

Take Theragun example please. If I was still a fiscally responsible person who budget my spending, I'd never spend money on such an expensive toy. But turns out, it is now slowly healing my old sports injuries when all the chiropractors, therapist and registered massage therapist couldn't do a thing.

I’m confused. A 4 slice toaster fixed your ailments or the thought of purchasing an R2 fixed them?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I’m confused. A 4 slice toaster fixed your ailments or the thought of purchasing an R2 fixed them?

Yes

 

[woodisgood]

Alright....so I was offline for most of the day so far....HVAC work on the house, keeping me from actual work, keeping me from TMC / TSLA

Did I miss anything?

SP doing alright?

Just a great buying opp in the first 30 min. Otherwise, apparently absolutely nothing since yesterday.

 

[adiggs]

#5 - TSLA rises over $1000 in early or mid 2021 and @gabeincal has no shares available to sell to take profits if he is still expecting a dip.

I'm not criticizing his strategy, just pointing out another possibility. I personally would not sell covered calls against my entire portfolio.

For an income and growth mindset, selling cc against the entire portfolio at what looks like a local peak (such as this inclusion event), then you get potentially a year or two of income in cash up front (depends on just how many cc that is). That provides protection against a 50% move to the downside (which I for one, consider to be inevitable events over the next decade).

Two years of living expenses in cash provides an awful lot of downside protection, even if it means that one misses out on upside gains in the future. And that's still a sale at what today is a very high price.


And of course, one can sell the ccs against less than all the portfolio - just enough to get the income and downside protection to go with exposure to however much of the upside one desires.

 

[Tyler34]

#4 is a real problem but hey. That would be a ~60% upside from here

I would not hold until Jan. Assuming there is going to be a big dip next year. If not, 60% gain guaranteed.

I’m thinking.....

I would advise you to not set your price target right now but rather a delta target at which you want to sell the cc's. It is my belief that there is a strong possibility that we breech 1200 during this inclusion event. Again, not advice

 

[Tslynk67]

Alright....so I was offline for most of the day so far....HVAC work on the house, keeping me from actual work, keeping me from TMC / TSLA

Did I miss anything?

SP doing alright?

well it was, until you turned-up

 

[BornToFly]

I would advise you to not set your price target right now but rather a delta target at which you want to sell the cc's. It is my belief that there is a strong possibility that we breech 1200 during this inclusion event. Again, not advice

Where is the "fingers crossed" rating button

 

[FS_FRA]

well it was, until you turned-up

C'mon now...this is just the Wall Street lunchtime apprentice crowd FOMO'ing....

 

[dl003]

For an income and growth mindset, selling cc against the entire portfolio at what looks like a local peak (such as this inclusion event), then you get potentially a year or two of income in cash up front (depends on just how many cc that is). That provides protection against a 50% move to the downside (which I for one, consider to be inevitable events over the next decade).

Two years of living expenses in cash provides an awful lot of downside protection, even if it means that one misses out on upside gains in the future. And that's still a sale at what today is a very high price.


And of course, one can sell the ccs against less than all the portfolio - just enough to get the income and downside protection to go with exposure to however much of the upside one desires.

Worst case scenario, you can always use a portion of the premium to roll it upward whenever a higher strike price becomes available, during periods of low volatility & down trend. Plenty of those down the road.

 

[CyberDutchie]

You can afford a 4 slice toaster. Unless tou purposefully didn't tell your wife how much tsla you have. Honestly little life improvement like that should be looked into.

Take Theragun example please. If I was still a fiscally responsible person who budget my spending, I'd never spend money on such an expensive toy. But turns out, it is now slowly healing my old sports injuries when all the chiropractors, therapist and registered massage therapist couldn't do a thing.

Good point of advice, keeping your body in good health is essential to being able to fully enjoy a lot of good things life has to offer. I spent some good money on a pro massage chair, best purchase I’ve made for a while.

 

[SOULPEDL]

My model y was picked up Oct 24th and has Vin 631xx. Gives an idea of how production is ramping.

68xxx 89xxx = ~20K delivered in about a month and a half out of Fremont? Over 3K/week Model Y Fremont.
Pretty a pretty good ramp I'd say!

 

[StealthP3D]

Every time I look at the SP and think "oh, I wish it were higher" I have to mentally slap myself and point out that it's over 3k, which is triple my 2020 price target from back in January. Amazing.


After thinking more I've decide it's both. Benchmarked funds can decide how much to hold and that can change, tracking funds have to buy a certain amount and hold it (which only changes quarterly). So we have more buying demand and lower available supply.

Buying and selling pressure is highly price elastic. All else being equal, when the price goes up there are more sellers and when the price goes down there are more buyers. So a smaller float will simply self-select the buyers and sellers that value the stock higher. This causes the stock to be "worth" more.

With stocks that are easy to value with traditional metrics, for example, companies with normal low and steady growth and high stability, the increase in value from a smaller float is minimal. But with a stock like TSLA, one that has a huge disparity in perceived value amongst the investment community, a smaller float will filter those who think it's not worth much right out of the marketplace.

That's why, all else being equal, TSLA share price will be higher with the smaller float S&P inclusion entails. The bad news is that the market has been considering that ever since S&P inclusion was announced when the shares were sitting at $408. This means, unless the market is wrong, the longer-term value of S&P inclusion should be priced in. However, the "efficient market theory" is over-valued since the market is often "wrong". However, it can be "wrong" in either direction. I don't need to worry which way it could be wrong with S&P 500 inclusion because I think the overall market is "wrong" about TSLA in much more fundamental ways.

In other words, TSLA shares are a good bet over the next several years. In the next week or month, I simply do not know or care much.

 

[Unpilot]

One take on spoon inclusion.

Tesla joining the S&P 500 is going to be ‘the mother of all’ stock-market events

 

[Knightshade]

Are you waiting for RSI to get above 85 and IV above 110? I'm looking for these conditions next week.

IV actually broke 110 very briefly this morning, though dropped back to 105-107 range soon after.... there's obviously also a lot of time sensitivity since we're trying to leverage the inclusion and (presumed) post-inclusion drop... I'm not expecting the 2x share price spikes some seem to be in the next 1-2 weeks, but I certainly think spiking to/over 700 is entirely likely...

I've also got a bunch of ITM calls I'll want to sell off in this period (mostly mid-Jan ones, but a few of later ones I think are still worth selling now if it spikes like that), and again around 700 is where I'd be pretty happy to do so...

Looking at the current options OI chart for the next few weeks seems most are betting on 700 too... (there's some smaller OI at 800 and up but much smaller #s and the folks I personally know who've bought in this area did so just to resell as it moves up for a profit not because they expect em to go ITM or anything).... so obviously "they" have a LOT of interest in keeping it under 700... but I'm ok doing all my work at 699 I suppose


Oh and then if this somehow all magically works out perfectly, I've got to decide what to do what what's now an unexpectedly huge pile of cash... sell 12/31 puts expecting a drop? (if so at what strike since I do want shares back)- or just buy a lot more shares than I originally had before converting them to options? Or just "wait for a dip" and buy em? Or heck gamble some more and instead on a dip buy a ton of leaps instead?

 

[Nocturnal]

One take on spoon inclusion.

Tesla joining the S&P 500 is going to be ‘the mother of all’ stock-market events

I have been pondering something indirectly related to TSLA over the past few days that this article touches on. So if one was inclined to worry about short term changes, wouldn't it be wise to sell any S&P 500 based holdings prior to inclusion? Cramer had said he thought Door Dash was the impetus behind the drop the other day. If Tesla is worth 1.5% of the index, barring other forces, then shouldn't I expect my index holdings to drop?

 

[dl003]

IV actually broke 110 very briefly this morning, though dropped back to 105-107 range soon after.... there's obviously also a lot of time sensitivity since we're trying to leverage the inclusion and (presumed) post-inclusion drop... I'm not expecting the 2x share price spikes some seem to be in the next 1-2 weeks, but I certainly think spiking to/over 700 is entirely likely...

I've also got a bunch of ITM calls I'll want to sell off in this period (mostly mid-Jan ones, but a few of later ones I think are still worth selling now if it spikes like that), and again around 700 is where I'd be pretty happy to do so...

Looking at the current options OI chart for the next few weeks seems most are betting on 700 too... (there's some smaller OI at 800 and up but much smaller #s and the folks I personally know who've bought in this area did so just to resell as it moves up for a profit not because they expect em to go ITM or anything).... so obviously "they" have a LOT of interest in keeping it under 700... but I'm ok doing all my work at 699 I suppose


Oh and then if this somehow all magically works out perfectly, I've got to decide what to do what what's now an unexpectedly huge pile of cash... sell 12/31 puts expecting a drop? (if so at what strike since I do want shares back)- or just buy a lot more shares than I originally had before converting them to options? Or just "wait for a dip" and buy em? Or heck gamble some more and instead on a dip buy a ton of leaps instead?

I'm thinking just use it to buy more shares if and when there's a big dip & sell calls against them at the same strike & expiry. IV should still remain elevated when it dips in the short term. That way you end up with more shares at an even lower cost. Those shares appreciating should help you roll the CCs up when needed.