Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Criscmt]

Tesla already hit 500K cars produced this year?

https://twitter.com/squawksquare/status/1338579780225077251

This I am afraid is nothing but overzealousness that has become more common in recent times from some in TSLA community.
I am concerned that this tendency to push expectations too far from reality will lead to disappointments, even when the team (company) does extraordinary job, giving their best.

 

[S3XY]

I wouldn’t be surprised if part of the Model S/X upgrade is switching to the new aluminum body casting process from the Model Y. Elon mentioned that the S/X also use cast aluminum body parts, but they require heat treating while the Y doesnt because of a new alloy. The new castings could result in higher margins for the S&X.

A better surprise would be if they’re using 4680 structural packs, but I think we’re a year out from that.

At the very least we better be getting heat pump & octovalve.

Magic 8 Ball says "All of the above".

 

[Criscmt]

(Perhaps the right thread to continue on this topic. Taking the perspective of share of Tesla in TAM.)
I used to have the same view until I started seeing other EVs, particularly chinese EVs finding customers.
Lucid is perhaps the only player as of now who are good and efficiency, which influences the battery costs which influences the cost of the car. Sure scale is necessary, but going by where Nio and the likes I do see decent chance of someone like Lucid being able to get to scale. If Lucid can't make it, I wonder what does it take for any player besides Tesla and some of the very low budget cars in China, to make it.

My bad. I realized now that I didn't notice the context, "obsolete" (Lucid Air range, performance Vs Plaid)

 

[Criscmt]

44.3 M shares traded already today, with Buyer's successfully capping SP btwn $635-$640 for over 4 hrs. This has been a master class in extracting liquidity from the Market.

I have no doubt this deliberate 'rolling barrage' of slowly increasing SPs will succeed in extracting the required number of shares from current TSLA holders (and shortzes) by Dec 24.

And does this change your expectation on the peak SP either this week or the next?
IIRC, at some point after the inclusion announcement, you were seeing $800+ as very likely?

 

[MP3Mike]

Maybe my Google-fu is weak today and I just couldn't find it.

Edit: I have identified these so far:

• SPY: Excel: Daily (ssga.com) or SPY: SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust (ssga.com)
  
• VOO: VOO - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | Vanguard
• IVV: iShares Core S&P 500 ETF | IVV

SPY and IVV haven't updated their data yet. I wonder when they do that... (They only have ~8 hours left to make the updated data available while staying in compliance with IRS regulations.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

And does this change your expectation on the peak SP either this week or the next?
IIRC, at some point after the inclusion announcement, you were seeing $800+ as very likely?

Model of Supply and Demand for TSLA shares:

The point where the supply and deman curves intersect is the equilibrium SP, which in theory occurs after some hysteresis, but in practice equilibrium is never reached because of other events, ie:

• Q4 P&D
• FSD Beta
• Model S refresh
• Giga Shanghai Phase 3

This chart is produced from actual data, given some assumptions.

 

[FrankSG]

View attachment 617845

What's the reasoning for having the "Supply of Shares" line as is?

Looks like it predicts supply of -100M shares at a stock price of $550, and -240M at a stock price of $470.

It also looks like it predicts supply of +950M shares around a stock price of $1,150. I didn't know every current TSLA shareholder, including all of TMC, including myself, and including Elon were selling by then

 

[Green Pete]

What's the reasoning for having the "Supply of Shares" line as is?

I just assumed the whole chart was a joke no?

 

[Criscmt]

View attachment 617845

My bad, looks like I mistook you with one of the members expecting a squeeze, similar rise (~80%) as in July and August.
Do you mind sharing a bit more on how you arrive at this data?
Also, I thought index funds need 130M shares.
I am not sure if I am understanding the graph properly. Is it saying $671 is equilibrium price point?

 

[FrankSG]

My bad, looks like I mistook you with one of the members expecting a squeeze, similar rise (~80%) as in July and August.
Do you mind sharing a bit more on how you arrive at this data?
Also, I thought index funds need 130M shares.
I am not sure if I am understanding the graph properly. Is it saying $671 is equilibrium price point?

Looks like @Artful Dodger is still of the opinion that, as the stock price fluctuates, indexers have to buy different numbers of shares. This has been discussed at length. Rob Maurer does the best job of showing why it's not true in his S&P videos, and why indexers will approximately own the same number of shares regardless of what the stock price does.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What's the reasoning for having the "Supply of Shares" line as is?

Looks like it predicts supply of -100M shares at a stock price of $550, and -240M at a stock price of $470

That's the change in supply of shares (which is what Index funds must make happen by Dec 24). Think of 'Supply' as the number of additional shares which become available, above or below the Dec 11 baseline w. equilibrium SP at $609.

Obviously, the entire inventory of shares is now over 955M, with about 20% of those locked up by insiders (mostly Elon).

The goal of the Index Funds over the next 12 trading sessions must be to raise the share price enough to make all the shares they need available for purchase.

I believe their secondary goal will be to control the daily climb to minimize wild swings in the SP.

 

[FrankSG]

That's the change in supply of shares (which is what Index funds must make happen by Dec 24). Think of 'Supply' as the number of additional shares which become available, above or below the Dec 11 baseline w. equilibrium SP at $609

But why is it the way it is? What's your reasoning for making it the way it is? (is it your graph?)

You can't just draw a line on a graph and say that's what the supply of available shares will be, without providing some explanation why you think so.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Looks like @Artful Dodger is still of the opinion that, as the stock price fluctuates, indexers have to buy different numbers of shares. This has been discussed at length. Rob Maurer does the best job of showing why it's not true in his S&P videos, and why indexers will approximately own the same number of shares regardless of what the stock price does.

Your position results in an untentable demand curve. Plot one out for yourself.

 

[StealthP3D]

Your position results in an untentable demand curve. Plot one out for yourself.

OK, that's a new one for me. What's an "untentable demand curve"?

I love to camp and that word means something else to me!

 

[JBRR]

I was tracking the imbalance number today as it was getting published. It's updated every 5 seconds from 350 pm till close.

It started at 40k or so on the buy side and went up to 120k before settling at what @JBRR shows above just prior to close. Wanted to note that, as this snapshot doesn't tell the full story.

It felt like the buy imbalance was trying to pull the price up, and it reluctantly went up a bit. Pretty similar to how it did last Thursday or Friday as I was watching it.

For those of you who are on IBKR, you can just add the imbalance column to your view. Just need a nasdaq total view subscription which is $15 per month.

Thanks!
I was trying to find this feature in IBKR, to no avail.

 

[JBRR]

State streets ETF "SPY", has 0 Tesla as of 14/12 update.

 

[Buckminster]

Green has advised that autopilot assist app has been activated. Not sure what that is exactly but looks cool:

Playing_autopilot_full

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Your position results in an untentable demand curve. Plot one out for yourself.

I think we all know you meant "untenable demand curve", but why is it untenable? Secondly, the supply curve should be logarithmic not linear, since there are only 760million shares in the free float, and some of those are held by retail investors and some funds that would "never sell".

 

[Mo City]

Green has advised that autopilot assist app has been activated. Not sure what that is exactly but looks cool:

Playing_autopilot_full

Good stuff. What I would like to see simultaneously along with the standard forward camera in the video are the wide-angle forward camera and both b-pillar cameras (all annotated as in the video).

 

[Pezpunk]

This I am afraid is nothing but overzealousness that has become more common in recent times from some in TSLA community.
I am concerned that this tendency to push expectations too far from reality will lead to disappointments, even when the team (company) does extraordinary job, giving their best.

the same exact thing happens every quarter on this very forum. Elon sets nigh-impossible goals. When everything goes right, Tesla pulls off the nigh-impossible and just barely achieves or comes within a percentage point or two of those goals. but there are also two givens:

1) the irrational bears who assume he's a fraud and a liar and it's all smoke and mirrors, and they'll deny it could ever happen even after it happened.
2) the irrational bulls who dream that Elon has been hiding cars in underground bunkers or whatever and will spring a huge surprise and announce the recently delivered Model Y's can hover and travel through time after an upcoming software update released on the last day of the quarter, and predict wild beats, which are ultimately detrimental to Tesla's fundamental goals.

the truth is easy to see if you ignore frothy rumors and look and listen to hard evidence, and most of all take Elon's public communications more or less at their word. When he says they're close to breaking even, that's the truth. when he says a quarter will be difficult, that's also the truth, almost invariably. i don't idolize or deify Elon, but i do think his public communications tend to be his real opinions on matters, and not some 4D chess match with Wall Street.