Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

But it never should have been expected that massive buying would happen Mon/Tue of this week. By rule for most of the funds, they couldn't even start to buy until today and the expectation should that most of the buying will happen Thurs/Fri and Mon/Tues of next week

What really puzzles me is that if everyone was expecting massive buying some time this week, it doesn't make sense why anyone would sell before then. If I had lemonade to sell, and I knew there was a heat wave coming the end of the week, I wouldn't be unloading a bunch of my lemonade before the heat wave.

 

[Rockster]

I have a Roth with Ameritrade and know they allow some options but I don't think a margin account is legal for that type of account.

I was thinking the same thing. I have always thought margin trading was disallowed in an IRA.

 

[Nocturnal]

For some non-inclusion related news. BlackRock is reiterating their commitment to combating climate change and plan to use their holdings to pressure directors to take the issue seriously.

BlackRock makes climate change central to investment strategy for 2021 (cnbc.com)

In the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, “investors and others will be looking to see how companies are rebuilding their businesses for long-term sustainability and value creation,” BlackRock said in its 2021 stewardship expectations.

 

[dl003]

What really puzzles me is that if everyone was expecting massive buying some time this week, it doesn't make sense why anyone would sell before then. If I had lemonade to sell, and I knew there was a heat wave coming the end of the week, I wouldn't be unloading a bunch of my lemonade before the heat wave.

If this massive buying is done via closing crosses AH, it's a whole different ball game. That is simply too much uncertainty for traders to deal with.
If price does not rise at all between now and 4 pm Friday and everyone expects a drop on Monday, there's only one logical course of action for them: sell.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

What really puzzles me is that if everyone was expecting massive buying some time this week, it doesn't make sense why anyone would sell before then. If I had lemonade to sell, and I knew there was a heat wave coming the end of the week, I wouldn't be unloading a bunch of my lemonade before the heat wave.

Unless you do not have a fridge or access to ice

 

[Vad42]

Well yeah, because there is no additional volume. It's a bonanza for the MM's with all the calls they've been able so sell since the inclusion announcement and although we may get a squeeze, it's looking like it will come after-hours on Friday so, THEY win once again.

But, we should neither lose sight of the fact that we are 50% up since the announcement and I personally see no reason why that should drop much after the event. So for HODLERS it's beautiful (and I still count myself as one of those, but reserve the right to sell everything if we jump 50% at any moment )

50% is what, $950 from here? Seems a bit low to me to sell all if expectation to be > $2000 in 5-10 years. I've been thinking hard about this for the last few weeks trying to decide what to do. Coupled with the fact that all my TSLA is unfortunately in taxable account, it's not obvious to me the best course of action. But here's my plan for Friday (and I reserve a right to change it at any time.)

> stays as is 600-650 - Sell 10% for lavish expenses over next year.
> 700- 1000 - Sell 20%
> 1000 -1200 - Sell 30-40%
> 2000 - Sell 100% and retire.

My gut feel though, is that the Friday will not see a major pop. The top was 650 earlier last week, and we drop to ~500 in a week and then slowly start building back up over next year. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What really puzzles me is that if everyone was expecting massive buying some time this week, it doesn't make sense why anyone would sell before then. If I had lemonade to sell, and I knew there was a heat wave coming the end of the week, I wouldn't be unloading a bunch of my lemonade before the heat wave.

Yeah, it does defy some logic so I get the questions around "Why is anyone selling right now" . Has the past 2 days(including this morning) gone exactly how I thought it would? Nope. Am I surprised that the stock is trading illogically? Nope.

I mean we've seen all sorts of shady things with this stock for so many years. But at the end of the day, it doesn't change the fact that the buying volume from index funds hasn't started at all yet.

 

[StealthP3D]

https://twitter.com/a_mrbenmitchell/status/1338833833710522369?s=21
The new BMW no-frunk.

This tells us a lot about what BMW wants out of this car. Obviously, they are not interested in selling as many as they could make or they would have put a plastic frunk tub in that space to increase sales.

OT: I know many Tesla owners don't use their frunks much but it's one of my favorite features of our Model 3's. I've constructed a removeable lightweight custom fitted tub liner with lid made of 1/4" IR reflective foil bubble insulation and put my groceries up there. I also bought a soft cooler that fills 75% of the frunk liner and leaves 25% of the space open on the side (that also stays cool due to the foil bubble liner). I bring food back and forth between our ski cabin and home regularly so the soft cooler does a superior job of keeping it all really cold and fresh and leaves the trunk area free for other gear. When the trunk is full of luggage the car handles better with the frunk packed full of food and the lightweight frunk liner makes the ice packs last a lot longer, especially in hot weather. It only weighs a few ounces so I just leave it in there all the time.

So I'm not sure why BMW didn't utilize this space while earlier EV's from BMW did. It's one more differentiator for Tesla vs. BMW.

The cooler I use is here in case anyone is interested in doing something similar (it's very well made):
38 Pack Carbon Stow-N-Go (Silver) | AO Coolers

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

50% is what, $950 from here? Seems a bit low to me to sell all if expectation to be > $2000 in 5-10 years. I've been thinking hard about this for the last few weeks trying to decide what to do. Coupled with the fact that all my TSLA is unfortunately in taxable account, it's not obvious to me the best course of action. But here's my plan for Friday (and I reserve a right to change it at any time.)

> stays as is 600-650 - Sell 10% for lavish expenses over next year.
> 700- 1000 - Sell 20%
> 1000 -1200 - Sell 30-40%
> 2000 - Sell 100% and retire.

My gut feel though, is that the Friday will not see a major pop. The top was 650 earlier last week, and we drop to ~500 in a week and then slowly start building back up over next year. I hope I'm wrong.

If there's no rally around inclusion, then there won't be a sell off. I don't get why people are thinking that there would still be a sell off if the stock doesn't even get back to it's all time high around 680 by Friday or Monday.

 

[WattsHappening]

What really puzzles me is that if everyone was expecting massive buying some time this week, it doesn't make sense why anyone would sell before then. If I had lemonade to sell, and I knew there was a heat wave coming the end of the week, I wouldn't be unloading a bunch of my lemonade before the heat wave.

What's becoming more clear to me is that not everyone was expecting massive buying. Many of us here were, but we are still a tiny percentage of trading. We are trying to anticipate how the big boys are going to play the game. But we don't know all the rules.

 

[samppa]

This tells us a lot about what BMW wants out of this car. Obviously, they are not interested in selling as many as they could make or they would have put a plastic frunk tub in that space to increase sales.

OT: I know many Tesla owners don't use their frunks much but it's one of my favorite features of our Model 3's. I've constructed a removeable lightweight custom fitted tub liner with lid made of 1/4" IR reflective foil bubble insulation and put my groceries up there. I also bought a soft cooler that fills 75% of the frunk liner and leaves 25% of the space open on the side (that also stays cool due to the foil bubble liner). I bring food back and forth between our ski cabin and home regularly so the soft cooler does a superior job of keeping it all really cold and fresh and leaves the trunk area free for other gear. When the trunk is full of luggage the car handles better with the frunk packed full of food and the lightweight frunk liner makes the ice packs last a lot longer, especially in hot weather. It only weighs a few ounces so I just leave it in there all the time.

So I'm not sure why BMW didn't utilize this space while earlier EV's from BMW did. It's one more differentiator for Tesla vs. BMW.

The cooler I use is here in case anyone is interested in doing something similar (it's very well made):
38 Pack Carbon Stow-N-Go (Silver) | AO Coolers

You should seriously consider getting Teslaoffer's electric frunk with so much use

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Yeah, it does defy some logic so I get the questions around "Why is anyone selling right now" . Has the past 2 days(including this morning) gone exactly how I thought it would? Nope. Am I surprised that the stock is trading illogically? Nope.

I mean we've seen all sorts of shady things with this stock for so many years. But at the end of the day, it doesn't change the fact that the buying volume from index funds hasn't started at all yet.

Today's price action is probably also the result of the realization by more and more traders that we may not see a pop. They are losing faith and securing their gains. Almost as if they are human.

 

[Vad42]

If there's no rally around inclusion, then there won't be a sell off. I don't get why people are thinking that there would still be a sell off if the stock doesn't even get back to it's all time high around 680 by Friday or Monday.

Profit taking combined with possibility that front-runners bought too much

 

[Knightshade]

But it never should have been expected that massive buying would happen Mon/Tue of this week. By rule for most of the funds, they couldn't even start to buy until today and the expectation should that most of the buying will happen Thurs/Fri and Mon/Tues of next week

See... like every 3rd post going back 50 pages...for plenty of examples of folks who very clearly didn't check what the funds rules and buying methods are before making stock decisions.

We've still had people asking how it works as recently as, like, an hour ago.

 

[Mo City]

Something worth mentioning though, is that IV was crushed on Monday so it's hard to say if he left much, if any, money on the table.

Exactly! My Jan 15 calls were worth 50% more last Thursday at $617 than they are today.

I'm still way way up so it's not like I'm suffering. First world problems, LOL!

 

[gabeincal]

What really puzzles me is that if everyone was expecting massive buying some time this week, it doesn't make sense why anyone would sell before then. If I had lemonade to sell, and I knew there was a heat wave coming the end of the week, I wouldn't be unloading a bunch of my lemonade before the heat wave.

But if a cold front comes in and brings some snow, you might have a lot of spoilt juice....

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Profit taking combined with possibility that front-runners bought too much

The math doesn't add up though for that to be possible. If the stock stays in the mid 600's by Tuesday/Wed of next week, that'll mean index funds have bought all 120 million shares they needed to buy. Which means there would have been 120 millions shares front runned and/or shares willing to be sold by institutional and big whale investors. Considering how much of the float is held by insiders and institutions/big whales that we all know for a fact will not sell at any price right now (well at least not under 1,000), the available float of Tesla simply doesn't allow the math to add up for there to be 120 million shares essentially taken out of actively traded hands and it NOT rally and then sell off.

The profit taking and the front running sell volume will get eaten up by the index fund buying. Even if that equals out (which I do not think its remotely possible), at the end of inclusion, there would be no more shares left for selling from profit takers and hedge funds that front runned the stock. We would be looking at a situation where a very, very strong new base floor has been set and the stock will rally going forward( albeit at a slow pace)

 

[JBRR]

https://twitter.com/Lebeaucarnews/status/1339258376769986561?s=20


Listen to
@JoeBiden
introduce
@PeteButtigieg
as his choice for Secretary of Transportation and it's clear the DOT will emphasize E-V's, adding charging stations, developing green transportation.

 

[dl003]

The math doesn't add up though for that to be possible. If the stock stays in the mid 600's by Tuesday/Wed of next week, that'll mean index funds have bought all 120 million shares they needed to buy. Which means there would have been 120 millions shares front runned and/or shares willing to be sold by institutional and big whale investors. Considering how much of the float is held by insiders and institutions/big whales that we all know for a fact will not sell at any price right now (well at least not under 1,000), the available float of Tesla simply doesn't allow the math to add up for there to be 120 million shares essentially taken out of actively traded hands and it NOT rally and then sell off.

The profit taking and the front running sell volume will get eaten up by the index fund buying. Even if that equals out (which I do not think its remotely possible), at the end of inclusion, there would be no more shares left for selling from profit takes and hedge funds that front runned the stock. We would be looking at a situation where a very, very strong new base floor has been set and the stock will rally going forward( albeit at a slow pace)

Do we, though?

 

[Rhoon-NL]

Long time lurker here.


After reading a lot here and elsewhere it becomes clear to me that this scenario becomes more and more likely:

1. The inclusion spike is already behind us ($150+ rise since the announcement)

2. Front runners have had enough time during the spike to accumulate shares (eventually partly by exercising call options) and will be happy to sell them at a profit to the index funds.

3. Bench mark funds don’t have to buy Tsla to beat the S&P 500. But if they want to, they can wait for a post inclusion dip.

4. As a result there won't be a further spike

5. Short term call option players (like me) are caught like a deer in the headlights.


I hope I’m wrong but I’m afraid not.