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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

gabeincal

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jul 5, 2016
1,273
10,329
SF Bay, CA
Put in sell order at $784 for enough shares to match some earlier in the year long term losses. Price "scientifically" chosen to minimize number of shares sold and still cover loses. Will leave in plaace through year end even if it doesn't hit this week. Good luck to all.

Why not sell covered calls with that theory and collect some premium?
 

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Supporting Member
Nov 15, 2013
9,871
76,758
At home
Today's acquiring game seems to be centered around EMA 9.
These buyers are so cute with their acquiring strategies, on Monday it was EMA 20.

Notice how QQQ is actually on a downturn since market open.
View attachment 618460

I'd love to rate this "informative", except I have absolutely no idea what you'r'e talking about...
 

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,615
21,504
Singapore
Darts, Tesla and the sad saga of picking stocks for the S&P 500

The men and women who select the stocks that go into the S&P
500 have cost investors billions of dollars by leaving Tesla
out of the index for years simply by not heeding their
golden rule: passive investing beats active management almost
all the time.

Calculations by Vincent Deluard, global macro strategist at
financial services firm StoneX, also show the S&P 500 has lagged
a truer grouping of the 500 largest U.S. stocks by 2.9% the past
three quarters after the portfolio is rebalanced every month.

The S&P does not track the exact performance of the 500
largest U.S. publicly traded stocks. The index actually holds
505 stocks that are selected by a committee whose poor
decision-making is why the benchmark, which has about $4.6
trillion in investment indexed to it, has recently
underperformed, he said.

"The wise men and women of the S&P index committee are being
beaten by the proverbial monkey throwing darts at the big
board," he said in a research note to investors.
In essence, the committee isn't eating its own pudding,
Deluard argues. S&P Dow Jones Indices, which has tracked active
management versus index investing for years, has long said the
majority of active managers underperform most of the time.

Deluard said criticism is easy and he understood much of the
committee's logic, but decisions should be made by active
investors with a fiduciary duty to their clients.

For example, the exclusion of stocks with multiple shares -
one share class for the public and another for company founders,
family and others - led index funds to miss some of the biggest
rallies of 2020, such as Zoom and Pinterest,
Deluard said.

Tesla's tardy inclusion in the benchmark cost investors
dearly because the S&P would be valued $566 billion more had it
been added the first day the stock traded in 2010, he said.

Tesla's 60% surge since mid-November is mostly due to buying
in anticipation of the stock's entry in the S&P 500 next Monday,
a surge the index didn't participate in. Tesla would probably
still trade in the $300 range if index fund demand had been
spread out over time, he said.

But investors have begun to vote with their wallets, Deluard
said. The largest S&P 500 index-based ETF has seen outflows of
$60 billion since February 2018, with most of the money going
into truly passive total-market index funds, he said.

"It is time to retire the most important equity index in the
world," Deluard said.
 

EnzoXYZ

Member
Aug 11, 2016
766
2,609
Chicago
It would be sweet justice to see Gordon Johnson carried away in the back of a Model Y.
I know we all have fun with GJ. I just hope we all know the media/ financial outlets are the real evil empire here. If your “guest” is never right and you keep having him on is a serious problem. At least disclose if he or another entity is paying.
 

CHGolferJim

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jan 28, 2014
1,401
1,496
Chapel Hill, NC
Don’t holders as of Friday that will participate in the expected epic closing cross have every incentive to try to work the price up late Friday afternoon? (As it appears there is very little index buying so far this week, and those funds are waiting for the closing cross to initiate and they hope complete purchasing.)

If I understand Rob Maurer’s explanation correctly, the closing cross happens at exactly the closing price which will be influenced by orders at close arriving ~3:50pm Friday. So then buys and sells are matched and are transacted at whichever number of shares is lower, and virtually immediately. If an imbalance remains (and unmet demand), then there could be a spike in after-hours trading. Any unmet demand from there carries over to Monday AM, but there might possibly be no carryover.
 

dl003

Active Member
Nov 22, 2019
1,655
14,675
Texas
The key thing here that one must absolutely understand that the "spike" is simply a theory at this point. If one fund sells to another at market price, it'll be difficult to prove in a court of law that the selling fund is defrauding its investors out of a well-deserved "spike" that was never guaranteed. That's like saying if nobody is selling NKLA then NKLA will be worth infinity. That, too, is a theory.
If one fund's TSLA position has got so big, as is the case with Baillie Gifford earlier this year, it's entirely reasonable to trim the position.
If one fund has determined, after having done its due diligence, that TSLA is now so far ahead of its P:E, it's entirely reasonable to unload the position. We have seen this done a thousand times over the year. Why, all of a sudden, is everyone on WS mandated to be a TSLA permabull?
If a fund from within Fidelity bought TSLA at 408 and now is selling it to a Fidelity index fund at CURRENT MARKET PRICE OF 650, it would have done a fantastic job for its investors, generating a gain of 50% on the position in 4 weeks. What happens next week is unknown.
Please remember that nothing is guaranteed in the market, no matter how deserving we think we are of a spike. The rule of supplies and demand will dictate the outcome and it's entirely realistic for big firms to sell the shares internally while staying fully compliant with SEC's regulation, as well as satisfying its investors' expectation. Place yourself in the shoes of a non-TSLA bull who is invested in one of these funds. If the fund refuses to sell TSLA on Friday and it drops next week, will you thank it for "holding the line"?
I'm not projecting doom and gloom. I'm just trying to bring some rationale to the table. Without rationale, we would never have invested in TSLA. We might go up next week for all I know. But, let's not play TSLAQ and cry foul when things don't go our way.
 
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BlackS

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Feb 20, 2018
2,793
26,688
USA
I know we all have fun with GJ. I just hope we all know the media/ financial outlets are the real evil empire here. If your “guest” is never right and you keep having him on is a serious problem. At least disclose if he or another entity is paying.
I admit he is great for entertainment, however if he truly has no real 'company' that manages $ or does any business, it is just shady AF to keep getting paychecks from big oil to dump on Tesla. I guess everyone has their price to sell their soul, however, you could not pay me enough to constantly make a fool of myself on national television. I guess it is ok if you live in your parent's basement :)
 

Cherry Wine

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Oct 4, 2018
2,592
20,619
California
I'm not projecting doom and gloom. I'm just trying to bring some rationale to the table. Without rationale, we would never have invested in TSLA. We might go up next week for all I know. But, let's not play TSLAQ and cry foul when things don't go our way.

Agreed. I'm seeing a lot of attribution of events to manipulation, etc., when they could just as easily be explained by human behavior. I understand the paranoia given what Tesla (and TSLA) has endured over the years, but the reality is that the stock price is influenced by many different actors with different motives, and we simply don't have enough information right now to know what is going to happen or why.

I think this is one of those events that will require the benefit of hindsight to better understand.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
7,251
27,943
Philadelphia, PA
I'm not projecting doom and gloom. I'm just trying to bring some rationale to the table. Without rationale, we would never have invested in TSLA. We might go up next week for all I know. But, let's not play TSLAQ and cry foul when things don't go our way.
This isn't a rationale for buying/selling/holding, it's more like an emotional defense mechanism or simply a rational conservative mindset.

We all know anything can happen, but if you're looking for a rationale for decision-making......16% of the TSLA float is about to be purchased and effectively locked in a box forever. No one should have to apologize for thinking that will cause some rapid share price appreciation followed by a decline. It's just simple logic.

Yes, dark pools of both normal and nefarious players could provide $78B+ worth of shares in one fat injection on Friday afternoon, but somehow I doubt it.
 

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,615
21,504
Singapore
Thanks to @dww12 for the idea to compare TSLA to a couple of the other big S&P stocks.

earlyobv.jpg


It's very clear that between 9:45 and 10:15 TSLA was being bought, while AAPL, MSFT, and AMZN faced downward pressure.

10:45 to 11:15AM is less obvious, but it looks like there could've been a correlation.

Also... damn that candle just now at 11:28 was on very large volume (5x prior minute) :eek:
 

Cherry Wine

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Oct 4, 2018
2,592
20,619
California
Thanks to @dww12 for the idea to compare TSLA to a couple of the other big S&P stocks.

View attachment 618475

It's very clear that between 9:45 and 10:15 TSLA was being bought, while AAPL, MSFT, and AMZN faced downward pressure.

10:45 to 11:15AM is less obvious, but it looks like there could've been a correlation.

Also... damn that candle just now at 11:28 was on very large volume (5x prior minute) :eek:

How is per-hour volume looking compared to yesterday? Seeing any sort of uptick that would support the idea that index funds are starting to buy?
 
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FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,615
21,504
Singapore
How is per-hour volume looking compared to yesterday? Seeing any sort of uptick that would support the idea that index funds are starting to buy?

It's a little higher, but nothing crazy. The few times that there was clear buying, volume was somewhat high, but in between there were many prolonged periods just as quiet as most of yesterday.

We're still not at 25M shares for the day. I'd guess that at this pace we might end up at volume of 60M or 65M.
 

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Supporting Member
Nov 15, 2013
9,871
76,758
At home
i'm not buying any of this closing cross malarkey.

After reading more about it and watching some videos, I see it as a valid way to grab some shares at a guaranteed price. However, I'm very sceptical that 120m+ shares will be offered by sellers via this mechanism - just doesn't make sense for those looking to maximise gains.

Anyway, guess we'll see in 28 hours or so!

Now all depends on how many shares have been front-run, <120m, price goes up, >120m price goes down, ~120m price will remain around $600

I'm all for this being the new flooring in to 2021, we're already blessed.
 

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