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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
9,735
126,848
Canada
1. No (not as of yesterday, according to public information that they update daily themselves)
Did you look at the holdings of VEXMX - Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund Investor Shares

It was revealed here in the past day that they hold ~$9,5B of TSLA and the charter for this ETF requires them to sell any stock that appears on the S&P 500 Index.

Most likely is that Vanguard will conduct an internal xfer of those shares to their S&P 500 ETF at the Closing SP on Friday, and report this private market transfer (a.k.a. 'Dark Pool') no later than 16:00:04 hrs on Fri, Dec 18, 2020.

Then those shares of TSLA will appear on the other ETF in the next daily reporting cycle.

It's unknown if other large funds have similar arrangements, but that speaks to our knowledge gap, not the mechanism of providing liquidity.

Cheers!
 

Remster32

Member
Jan 10, 2019
112
4,250
USA
This went under the radar, but Barclays raises their price target on TSLA from $125 to $230, while "remaining stubbornly underweight" (crazy, I know).

They are forecasting total production of vehicles to be:
FY'20: 486,000
FY'21: 756,000
FY'22: 976,000
FY'23: 1,124,000
FY'24: 1,147,000
FY'25: 1,138,000

That's right, production is peaking in 2024. And there will be no significant growth after FY'23 :rolleyes:.

upload_2020-12-17_10-47-10.png
 

Johan

Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Feb 9, 2012
7,496
9,788
Drammen, Norway
Did you look at the holdings of VEXMX - Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund Investor Shares

It was revealed here in the past day that they hold ~$9,5B of TSLA and the charter for this ETF requires them to sell any stock that appears on the S&P 500 Index.

Most likely is that Vanguard will conduct an internal xfer of those shares to their S&P 500 ETF at the Closing SP on Friday, and report this private market transfer (a.k.a. 'Dark Pool') no later than 16:00:04 hrs on Fri, Dec 18, 2020.

Then those shares of TSLA will appear on the other ETF in the next daily reporting cycle.

It's unknown if other large funds have similar arrangements, but that speaks to our knowledge gap, not the mechanism of providing liquidity.

Cheers!

Yes I saw this. And I believe you're quite right to assume that exactly this will happen. So does that make the answer to the question: "Did the index funds already buy their shares?" yes? In a practial sense yes. But at what price? At a pre arranged price or at market close on Friday?
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Criscmt

tcoombes

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jan 22, 2018
1,068
3,374
Northern California
Toyota’s Chief Says Electric Vehicles Are Overhyped
-WSJ

Toyota President Akio Toyoda said Japan would run out of electricity in the summer if all cars were running on electric power.

In a country such as Japan that gets most of its electricity from burning coal and natural gas, EVs don’t help the environment, Mr. Toyoda said. “The more EVs we build, the worse carbon dioxide gets,” he said.

Very tasty, Chef Toyoda! What’s for desert?
 

Johan

Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Feb 9, 2012
7,496
9,788
Drammen, Norway
This went under the radar, but Barclays raises their price target on TSLA from $125 to $230, while "remaining stubbornly underweight" (crazy, I know).

They are forecasting total production of vehicles to be:
FY'20: 486,000
FY'21: 756,000
FY'22: 976,000
FY'23: 1,124,000
FY'24: 1,147,000
FY'25: 1,138,000

That's right, production is peaking in 2024. And there will be no significant growth after FY'23 :rolleyes:.

... Says expert analyst who is in the bottom 5 percentile of everyone in his trade. (But hey statistics dictate that someone has to be on the tail end of the distribution, so let's not be too hard on the guy. However, maybe his analysis should come with a caveat that his track record shows that he's really bad at his job)

brian.PNG
 
Last edited:

pjferr

Member
Jan 18, 2020
22
141
Ontario, Canada
FYI - for anyone that may want to participate in the closing cross tomorrow, I checked with TD Ameritrade and you can enter limit on close orders through ThinkOrSwim but not the TD Ameritrade website or apps

I'm with TD Direct Investing in Canada. I'm interested in putting in high limit sell order that could potential execute in the closing cross tomorrow in the event there's a squeeze. Out of all of the order options my platform makes available it looks like the best one is "Limit - Day + EXT Markets". I've used this option to buy and sell in premarket and after hours in the past. Do you guys think this type of a limit order will execute in the closing cross?
 
  • Informative
Reactions: 2virgule5

dl003

Active Member
Nov 22, 2019
1,652
14,669
Texas
You will be bored out of your mind after this. Tesla FUD have been decreasing. Pretty soon this stock will be as interesting as holding Amzn and Appl. So enjoy this moment in time while it last.
Agree. TSLA's RSI seems to be making lower peaks from the peak in February when we went up 20% a day like nobody's business. By the look of it, we only have another 9 - 12 months of fun.
Capture.PNG
 

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Supporting Member
Nov 15, 2013
9,852
76,543
At home
"Limit on Close". Pick your price. Then the shares either sell or they don't.

With the other type of order "Market on Close" you are almost guaranteed that your shares trade, you just don't know the SP which could change as much as +/- 20% during the Closing Cross (see the NASDAQ pdf's for details of the max. varience).

So pick your poison:
  • "No trade" risk
  • "Trade SP" risk
  • "No Thank-you" risk ;)
Cheers!

Yes, I well understand all of the above, but I just don't have these order types available to me, this is it note no "roll/buy on sell" either:

upload_2020-12-17_20-1-28.png


In any case, I'm going to position myself for the coming month prior to tomorrow's close.
 

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,615
21,504
Singapore
This went under the radar, but Barclays raises their price target on TSLA from $125 to $230, while "remaining stubbornly underweight" (crazy, I know).

They are forecasting total production of vehicles to be:
FY'20: 486,000
FY'21: 756,000
FY'22: 976,000
FY'23: 1,124,000
FY'24: 1,147,000
FY'25: 1,138,000

That's right, production is peaking in 2024. And there will be no significant growth after FY'23 :rolleyes:.

View attachment 618523

I could see Tesla doing that 2025 number next year, in 2021 o_O
 

zeed

Member
Jul 30, 2012
27
74
Is this all
Did you look at the holdings of VEXMX - Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund Investor Shares

It was revealed here in the past day that they hold ~$9,5B of TSLA and the charter for this ETF requires them to sell any stock that appears on the S&P 500 Index.

Most likely is that Vanguard will conduct an internal xfer of those shares to their S&P 500 ETF at the Closing SP on Friday, and report this private market transfer (a.k.a. 'Dark Pool') no later than 16:00:04 hrs on Fri, Dec 18, 2020.

Then those shares of TSLA will appear on the other ETF in the next daily reporting cycle.

It's unknown if other large funds have similar arrangements, but that speaks to our knowledge gap, not the mechanism of providing liquidity.

Cheers!

Internal xfer of holding between funds prohibited according to Gary B.

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1339294115310276610?s=19
 

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Supporting Member
Nov 15, 2013
9,852
76,543
At home
This went under the radar, but Barclays raises their price target on TSLA from $125 to $230, while "remaining stubbornly underweight" (crazy, I know).

They are forecasting total production of vehicles to be:
FY'20: 486,000
FY'21: 756,000
FY'22: 976,000
FY'23: 1,124,000
FY'24: 1,147,000
FY'25: 1,138,000

That's right, production is peaking in 2024. And there will be no significant growth after FY'23 :rolleyes:.

View attachment 618523

You don't have to dig very deep to find the reason for some of these low-ball price-targets: https://www.cityam.com/barclays-fossil-fuel-financing-increases-despite-net-zero-pledge/
 

15Peter20

Member
Oct 26, 2020
470
2,511
Norfolk
Toyota President Akio Toyoda said Japan would run out of electricity in the summer if all cars were running on electric power.

In a country such as Japan that gets most of its electricity from burning coal and natural gas, EVs don’t help the environment, Mr. Toyoda said. “The more EVs we build, the worse carbon dioxide gets,” he said.[/QUOTE]

Hilarious. So where are they going to get the hydrogen for their (basically vapourware) FCEVs? Or their amazing new solid state batteries?
 

dww12

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Nov 10, 2018
895
5,940
San Antonio
I'm with TD Direct Investing in Canada. I'm interested in putting in high limit sell order that could potential execute in the closing cross tomorrow in the event there's a squeeze. Out of all of the order options my platform makes available it looks like the best one is "Limit - Day + EXT Markets". I've used this option to buy and sell in premarket and after hours in the past. Do you guys think this type of a limit order will execute in the closing cross?
If you are going to do that why not just sell in after hrs? Wouldn’t any squeeze be reflected there?
 

powertoold

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
2,824
5,309
USA
In a country such as Japan that gets most of its electricity from burning coal and natural gas, EVs don’t help the environment, Mr. Toyoda said. “The more EVs we build, the worse carbon dioxide gets,” he said.

In Japan, where people don't generally drive long distances, a regular outlet for charging would be sufficient. I doubt that would strain the grid.
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
12,791
18,891
NC
If you are going to do that why not just sell in after hrs? Wouldn’t any squeeze be reflected there?


Depends how many sellers there are.

If they need 100 shares (just using easy math #s) and only 50 sellers with a share each show up-price would squeeze higher in AH (assuming continued buying there rather than waiting on Monday).

If they need 100 shares and 150 sellers show up, only the 100 sellers with the lowest "I'll this amount of profit" number get to sell, and the other 50 are left HODLing their you know what.
 

rallykeeper

Member
Jul 9, 2013
270
931
Southern California
Is this all


Internal xfer of holding between funds prohibited according to Gary B.

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1339294115310276610?s=19

It's only prohibited if it's not at market pricing -- for the wonks, this is known as a 17a-7 trade. Rule 17a-7 is trying to make sure neither fund is disadvantaged by the trade -- trades at the official closing price of an equity security are generally considered permissive.

Fund-to-fund transfer at official closing price is completely fine. Presumably, this is exactly what Vanguard will do. For VEMX, it completely solves their tracking error problem since it can sell its entire position to Vanguard S&P 500 index products -- and it mitigates the number that SPY (and its mutual fund cousins) will have to buy on the open market.

As an earlier poster observed however, there aren't that many index funds that have to sell -- VEMX (and its cousin ETF) is kind of the exception to the rule.
 

PKOttawa

Member
Jun 29, 2020
125
48
Ottawa
So, I've been given some extra thought on recent news of solid state batteries, Tesla's structural batteries and everything that goes on, here is a note I came up with that I thought I'd share with the community.

Cybertruck's structural battery is just the first step.
We know that CT is incorporating a structural approach for batteries where the 4680 batteries just become a part of the structural integrity. I think this is just the first step. Where this design is going to shine is for Tesla Semi program.
I've always thought about why isn't Tesla incorporating their Semi's battery system into the trailer itself. And trailer can always be charging while being loaded/unloaded, providing minimal down time for the semi as they wait to be charged. And the answer has always come down to the fact that if we make the trailer too heavy, the possible load decreases, making it more expensive to run. But the trailer+truck itself is 35,000lbs worth of steel with a max. loaded weight at 80,000lbs. If Tesla can integrate batteries into forming the trailer bed itself, it could potentially create a trailer bed weighting not a whole lot more than 35,000lbs while retaining the same structural integrity to bear the 53,000lbs worth of load on top. This is further confirmed by Elon's comments on how he thinks about airplane design where the oil tank itself is just part of the structural integrity of the fuselage; allowing max amount of fuel loaded onto the plane while not planning for an extra part for fuel.

Solid state batteries are missing the point.
This week, we had news from Toyota that they plan to introduce an EV with solid-state batteries that's able to charge in 10min while providing decent amount of range. Similar approaches are shown by comments from QS technologies. But I think they are missing the point and put too much emphasis on EV and from a wrong POV. Tesla's battery formula program goes onto separating into 3 (or perhaps more) different type of formula depending on the need of each type of vehicle. This is not just for EV, but also the other battery programs that Tesla is currently running, namely the megapack designed for grid infrastructures. First on EV... Toyota and the others are still using the same mentality of ICE vehicles where people are used to "fill up" when they actually go into a gas station. However, as many of us with a Tesla or other EV knows, that's not the way we use EV. We charge at home when it's low and go out in the morning with a "full tank". And in long road trips or where the battery doesn't provide enough for us to get from point A to B, we charge just enough for us to get to the next charging point. This is similar to how we use cellphones. Even though we charge fully at night, if we know that given our usage, it's not going to last the day, we'd charge whenever there's a chance... just enough for us to keep going until we can fully charge it again. So, by focusing too much on charging speed, they actually forget that yes, fast charging is nice, but really what we need is many quick short burst of charges that can get us to the next point of charging. So, the need for extremely fast charging is not actually necessary. The focus should still be on the motor efficiency and longevity of the battery, which I think Tesla is right on track. Furthermore, it's always about economy of scale. The easier and more cost-efficient the manufacturing can be, whether it's the battery itself or the car as a whole, is what going to make a difference between becoming a giant in EV vs. a niche player.

I think you’re off the mark with solid state batteries.. they are a complete game changer and a vast improvement over lithium ion in every way. Of course there are challenges.. but it looks like they will become reality in a 2-3 yr time frame. Specifically these batteries have these advantages over lithium:

- Charge twice as fast meaning less waiting on long trips..
- 2-10 times the energy density.. This means they’ll enable much longer range for an equivalent battery size (Let that sink in.. this is huge)
- Better cold weather performance simplifying battery thermal management
- Highly reduced degradation.. meaning a much longer battery life
- Safer since they don’t over heat and combust..

Tesla had dumped billions into lithium battery production.. but they need a story on solid state.. This is clearly the future for EV batteries..
 

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