Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

... Says expert analyst who is in the bottom 5 percentile of everyone in his trade. (But hey statistics dictate that someone has to be on the tail end of the distribution, so let's not be too hard on the guy. However, maybe his analysis should come with a caveat that his track record shows that he's really bad at his job)

View attachment 618525

Wow, he is even behind Gordo on Tipranks ?!?! Now, that is a remarkable achievement!

 

[JBRR]

 

[zeed]

that's...not actually what he says there at all.

He says you can't do it without it being done at market pricing (and the SEC doc largely confirms that).

Right. I take it to mean they have to sell and repurchase and cannot simply memo the shares internally to a different fund inside their organization.

 

[BlackS]

I think you’re off the mark with solid state batteries.. they are a complete game changer and a vast improvement over lithium ion in every way. Of course there are challenges.. but it looks like they will become reality in a 2-3 yr time frame. Specifically these batteries have these advantages over lithium:

- Charge twice as fast meaning less waiting on long trips..
- 2-10 times the energy density.. This means they’ll enable much longer range for an equivalent battery size (Let that sink in.. this is huge)
- Better cold weather performance simplifying battery thermal management
- Highly reduced degradation.. meaning a much longer battery life
- Safer since they don’t over heat and combust..

Tesla had dumped billions into lithium battery production.. but they need a story on solid state.. This is clearly the future for EV batteries..

You're right, the competition is coming:

 

[Christine600]

Toyota President Akio Toyoda said Japan would run out of electricity in the summer if all cars were running on electric power.

In a country such as Japan that gets most of its electricity from burning coal and natural gas, EVs don’t help the environment, Mr. Toyoda said. “The more EVs we build, the worse carbon dioxide gets,” he said.

Hilarious. So where are they going to get the hydrogen for their (basically vapourware) FCEVs? Or their amazing new solid state batteries?

Yes it is pretty silly. Japan is a modern industrialized country just like Norway. And in Norway we have exceptionally many EVs. So they did a study:

The underlying assumption is that 75 percent of all new passenger cars will be electric cars by 2030, while the remaining are rechargeable hybrids.
Even in a scenario with full electrification, electric cars will only account for 4.2 per cent of electricity consumption. It is not enough that it will have a major impact on electricity prices, according to TØI.

Japan is a long way from having full electrification of their cars. So they have plenty of time to adjust their power production. Dare I suggest solar panels and battery plants?

Source: Elektrifisering av bilparken vil i liten grad påvirke strømprisen

 

[Mike Smith]

I'm guessing the majority, if not all of today's gain is actually a response to news of the start of Model Y production in Shanghai. Wall Street wasn't expecting this until Q1, so it's big news. Combined with strong macros this is about the response you'd expect even without any S&P noise.

 

[dww12]

I think you’re off the mark with solid state batteries.. they are a complete game changer and a vast improvement over lithium ion in every way. Of course there are challenges.. but it looks like they will become reality in a 2-3 yr time frame. Specifically these batteries have these advantages over lithium:

- Charge twice as fast meaning less waiting on long trips..
- 2-10 times the energy density.. This means they’ll enable much longer range for an equivalent battery size (Let that sink in.. this is huge)
- Better cold weather performance simplifying battery thermal management
- Highly reduced degradation.. meaning a much longer battery life
- Safer since they don’t over heat and combust..

Tesla had dumped billions into lithium battery production.. but they need a story on solid state.. This is clearly the future for EV batteries..

If it was really 2-3 years away there would be car with them right now (ex. Roadster 1). There isn’t. Model S was 5 years after that, and the 3, 5 years after that. It’s been 12 years from 18650 to purpose built 4680. As far as now is concerned this is infinity away, and only metric that matters right now is cost.

 

[Cherry Wine]

<=$650 sell orders are shrinking considerably. 186k shares.

163k.

EDIT: 11:45 AM PT: Back up to ~185k.

 

[asburgers]

Anyone seeing this wall at 650? It's been up there for at least the past 2 hrs.

 

[BlackS]

I think you’re off the mark with solid state batteries.. they are a complete game changer and a vast improvement over lithium ion in every way. Of course there are challenges.. but it looks like they will become reality in a 2-3 yr time frame. Specifically these batteries have these advantages over lithium:

- Charge twice as fast meaning less waiting on long trips..
- 2-10 times the energy density.. This means they’ll enable much longer range for an equivalent battery size (Let that sink in.. this is huge)
- Better cold weather performance simplifying battery thermal management
- Highly reduced degradation.. meaning a much longer battery life
- Safer since they don’t over heat and combust..

Tesla had dumped billions into lithium battery production.. but they need a story on solid state.. This is clearly the future for EV batteries..

800 cycles? what is that? a little over 2 years if you charge every day? QS won't even be going to prod with their solid state till 2027.

 

[Todd Burch]

... Says expert analyst who is in the bottom 5 3 percentile of everyone in his trade.

FTFY.

 

[Johan]

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800 cycles? what is that? a little over 2 years if you charge every day? QS won't even be going to prod with their solid state till 2027.

"800 cycles" is not nearly granular enough. From what state of charge to what state of charge? What is considered holding up for 800 cycles - 80% capacity remaining? Less? At what temperatures? Etc.

 

[Green Pete]

Wouldn’t it be fun if Tesla threw a wrench into all this madness, say by announcing a split or other interesting news.

I'm praying for v11 rollout this weekend

 

[Artful Dodger]

- Big spike tomorrow after hours, during closing cross.
- Drop back to flat after hours

This would be a spike most traders (especially option buyers) cannot profit from.

The SP fixed by the Closing Cross is NOT after hours trading. "Market on Close" Orders will sell at the Closing Cross share price, you just don't know what that exact price will be until after the close.

So, most traders CAN participate. Further, if Options contracts are moved either into- or out of- "the money" by the NOCP then that too affects Options traders.

TL;dr any "big spike" will come at the end of the main session with the closing cross, not after hours. Then, that NOCP should persist (or for at least some time After-hrs where

Cheers!

 

[Lycanthrope]

Up, up, up, up, DUMP! Weird...

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - this morning: Toyota Calls EVs ‘Overhyped.’ It Sees a Huge Mismatch in Cost vs. Goals for the Industry.

Excerpt:

"When politicians are out there saying, 'Let's get rid of all cars using gasoline,' do they understand this?" Toyoda was quoted in an article in The Wall Street Journal. The problem appears to be with the pace of change. He is worried that politicians setting EV policy don't understand the numbers...

Tesla will ship about 500,000 vehicles this year. But it is growing rapidly and expectations for growth have been increasing in recent months, attributable in part to more government EV goals.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Toyota’s Chief Says Electric Vehicles Are Overhyped
-WSJ

Toyota President Akio Toyoda said Japan would run out of electricity in the summer if all cars were running on electric power.

In a country such as Japan that gets most of its electricity from burning coal and natural gas, EVs don’t help the environment, Mr. Toyoda said. “The more EVs we build, the worse carbon dioxide gets,” he said.

He proves even CEOs can be in the dumb as a nail bucket. My apologies to people in this bucket if you feel Akio Toyoda is even dumber than you.

 

[Unpilot]

View attachment 618548
800 cycles? what is that? a little over 2 years if you charge every day? QS won't even be going to prod with their solid state till 2027.

First rule...don't...feed....the...well you know.

 

[zeed]

Right. I take it to mean they have to sell and repurchase and cannot simply memo the shares internally to a different fund inside their organization.

Alright, two of you corrected me so I stand corrected.

 

[JRP3]

I think you’re off the mark with solid state batteries.. they are a complete game changer and a vast improvement over lithium ion in every way. Of course there are challenges.. but it looks like they will become reality in a 2-3 yr time frame. Specifically these batteries have these advantages over lithium:

- Charge twice as fast meaning less waiting on long trips..
- 2-10 times the energy density.. This means they’ll enable much longer range for an equivalent battery size (Let that sink in.. this is huge)
- Better cold weather performance simplifying battery thermal management
- Highly reduced degradation.. meaning a much longer battery life
- Safer since they don’t over heat and combust..

Please link the supporting data for cells which achieve everything you claim. Numbers not speculation.