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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

capster

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Aug 11, 2018
1,028
8,096
An island planet
It might make for a good story in 2025. You could point at that old structure and say "Yup, that cabin there cost me over $5 million dollars. That's not including taxes and upkeep!" :D
The cabin is more or less incidental to the land on which it stands and we’re talking a relatively small number of chairs.

But, yes, your point is well taken. Is this the thing for which I’m willing to violate my rule not to sell? Sigh. Probably not, though I specifically bought the shares in question for this purpose.
 

Bet TSLA

Active Member
Dec 8, 2014
2,873
10,693
Cupertino, CA
The cabin is more or less incidental to the land on which it stands and we’re talking a relatively small number of chairs.

But, yes, your point is well taken. Is this the thing for which I’m willing to violate my rule not to sell? Sigh. Probably not, though I specifically bought the shares in question for this purpose.
I do these sorts of things all the time. I call them targeted trades, and use them mostly to force myself to spend money on things I otherwise wouldn't (I have a hard time spending money). I find it works best to use short puts that are fairly certain to expire out of the money. That way when they expire there's nothing to hold on to. The way you're doing it requires actual self-discipline to follow through.

Best of luck!

Edit: for clarity
 

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,615
21,504
Singapore
This appears to be saying everything happens at the closing cross tomorrow and the SP500 is hoping enough people show up willing to sell ALL 100 million plus shares at that time. They very strongly do not wish to purchase any more shares next week. Volatility is to be expected.

The main impression I get from Rich is that the market basically leaves these things up to other market participants, and is simply hoping that enough front-running has happened. I personally feel strongly that it hasn't, and I believe Fact Checking talked on Twitter about the fact that Hedge Funds only have so much money available for plays like this. This inclusion is truly of unprecedented size. I wonder if front runners that wanted to play the TSLA inclusion put all the money they wanted to dedicate to this play into TSLA in the first 2-3 weeks after inclusion, and whether the pool of HF money might just simply not be enough to provide adequate liquidity for an inclusion of TSLA's size.

Based on my prediction model, I really think that at this level a lot of large TSLA shareholders have to be willing to dump a Cybertruck-load of shares in order to satisfy demand from indexers. I continue to believe there's more likely than not significant upside from $650. If not this week, then during the next week or two. I could be wrong, but we'll find out very soon.
 

Cherry Wine

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Oct 4, 2018
2,591
20,615
California
Can you determine the 'Offer' price for that steep wall on the right? It looks like it might be sell limit orders for around $717 but it'd be good to know the exact value. TIA.

Cheers!

Given the steepness of the "wall," I'm sure it was $700. Big jumps in depth like that are always at round numbers.
 

lafrisbee

Active Member
Dec 13, 2019
1,960
6,633
Indialantic FL
So did Buffet buy that 10 billion worth to dump it into Closing cost tomorrow?
I know he had to get the OK from Some Government entity, and his reason for secrecy was he felt his purchase would WHACK the market. But did the Government entity tell him it'd be OK for him to be quiet about it if he was going to do something as "benign" as put all that stock into the closing cross?
 

Prunesquallor

His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
Supporting Member
Dec 19, 2018
3,435
37,635
Houston/Galveston
https://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/sp-500-etfs-brace-tesla-trade?nopaging=1

S&P 500 ETFs Brace For Tesla Trade
ETF.com Dec. 9 interview with Rich Lee, with whom Rob Mauer vlogged tonight. Many of the same questions and replies.

"But to your point, why wouldn't Tesla stock just run another, say, 25-50% given that everybody has to buy it? That's where having a robust and dynamic market comes into play, because there are market participants, whether it be proprietary traders, hedge funds or prop shops whose job is to look for these announced index changes and trade them ahead of time, and hopefully accumulate a position in advance of the index and be suppliers of liquidity.

The sell side is a liquidity partner in this endeavor. If we look at an index fund that cannot deviate, and it cannot trade early, if you don't have the sell side there prepositioning or accumulating position, you may have that scenario where the stock just runs uncontrollably to the upside. You want a robust ecosystem."

 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
7,236
27,750
Philadelphia, PA
So folks are discussing the idea of 120M shares changing hands at close tomorrow. What do we think that looks like as a multiple of a typical day's trading? IMO maybe 8M of the average 47M shares traded on a typical day are truly changing hands, the rest are just robo-maneuvering and manipulation that's unwound within 72hrs. This leads me to believe 120M shares truly traded at close is about 15 days worth of real selling.

That being said, I pulled this directly out of my ass. Anyone have a more educated guess?

Most days we've seen in the month before inclusion was announced, I could swear barely a handful of shares were actually traded, maybe 2-3M. Today had fairly low volume, but we shot up 5.32% because there was some real buying in there this afternoon. Just thinking out loud, but I feel like people aren't keeping 80B(120M shares) of real buying in perspective. It's quite a pile.
 

generalenthu

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jun 10, 2015
1,189
9,830
Vienna, VA
The main impression I get from Rich is that the market basically leaves these things up to other market participants, and is simply hoping that enough front-running has happened. I personally feel strongly that it hasn't, and I believe Fact Checking talked on Twitter about the fact that Hedge Funds only have so much money available for plays like this. This inclusion is truly of unprecedented size. I wonder if front runners that wanted to play the TSLA inclusion put all the money they wanted to dedicate to this play into TSLA in the first 2-3 weeks after inclusion, and whether the pool of HF money might just simply not be enough to provide adequate liquidity for an inclusion of TSLA's size.

Based on my prediction model, I really think that at this level a lot of large TSLA shareholders have to be willing to dump a Cybertruck-load of shares in order to satisfy demand from indexers. I continue to believe there's more likely than not significant upside from $650. If not this week, then during the next week or two. I could be wrong, but we'll find out very soon.
Even today, I think the volume was barely enough for just delta hedging from the move itself. Very little net index buying / front-running IMO.
 

cluster

Member
May 17, 2013
84
99
Houston
The bulk buying process at the last minutes of tomorrow allows the ETF\Mutual Funds etc. to sell to index funds at the closing price, whatever it is. Index funds do not care SP of TSLA, they just want to minimize the tracking error.

If I were ETF manager, I only care if I can sell all the TSLA shares at the closing price of tomorrow. Thus, these managers tend to buy and sell on friday, not to front run. If they accumulate too many shares in the prior weeks, pushing stock price too high, the risk for them is that stock price crash before Friday's closing. In that case, they may lose a lot of money.
 
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Sudre

Active Member
May 30, 2012
1,056
6,767
.....Just thinking out loud, but I feel like people aren't keeping 80B(120M shares) of real buying in perspective. It's quite a pile.

Aside from that.... wouldn't someone keeping 120M shares in their back pocket have to be announced somewhere? I mean the purchase of this would have to be spread out since the announcement (or before.... so rumor) and at some point the amount would have to be at a level requiring a report.

So did Buffet buy that 10 billion worth to dump it into Closing cost tomorrow?
I know he had to get the OK from Some Government entity.....
Starting to sound plausible.

What are the profits of 120M shares bought at say an average price of $600 then all being sold for $675.... a LOT! I can see a few entities front running this to split up the billions in easy profits. Do you get a bonus check at Christmas for that?
 
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Reactions: UkNorthampton

MP3Mike

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2016
16,213
36,557
Oregon
Aside from that.... wouldn't someone keeping 120M shares in their back pocket have to be announced somewhere? I mean the purchase of this would have to be spread out since the announcement (or before.... so rumor) and at some point the amount would have to be at a level requiring a report.

I think there is more in extended market funds than we realize. From what I can tell there is ~$10B of TSLA stock that has to be sold from extended market funds just from Vanguard, Fidelity, and BlackRock. How many more of these complementary funds are there? Of course that is only like 10% of what is needed, but that is a start.
 

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,615
21,504
Singapore
da6cce77e4a3325138c909bc909917ae.png

Investment Grade by 2025... maybe? Oh S&P... will you ever learn? :rolleyes:
 

pz1975

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Aug 30, 2013
1,525
8,793
Langley, BC, Canada
A strategy I am adding on for tomorrow is to maximize my buying power in my margin account by closing most of my sold puts before close. Then I will buy as many as possible just OTM calls that are cheap - $0.25 or less each just before close that I could possibly exercise after hours in the case of a big spike. I anticipate this trade will be a complete loss but if the SP does spike ($25+) in the first hour in after hours trading I will exercise the calls and immediately sell them for the after hours price. This could give me profit in the range of $50-200K. I see that as worth it for a $400-600 lottery ticket.
 

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