Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Big Time]

When do the fat whales get back from lunch?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Ugh I feel for people that follow this guy like he knows everything. He was wrong many, many times in the run up during summer, the run up during the stock split, and so on. He made many claims, almost all of the wrong but continually underestimating how high Tesla would go throughout this past year(and then weeks later unsurprisingly giving Tesla a new PT once he realized he was wrong). He cost a lot of people money that believed in him.

His logic on how many shares have been front runned based on a equation that still makes zero sense. He continually keeps comparing the percentage gain the stock(60%) with how many share have been front runned. It's a stupid theory. He also keeps ignoring multiple catalysts that have happened since Nov 16th that would naturally cause a stock to go higher as well.

Gary's an intelligent/smart guy. His issue is he present his tweets with a very high level of conviction and he's been wrong 50% or more of the time this entire year. So he could be right, but would you take advice from someone who continually underestimated the Tesla rallies each time this year???

Wholeheartedly agree. He's like Cramer. A bit of good info, but really just parroting the most likely scenario.

 

[dakh]

So I went and looked into this Limit-on-close order idea a few people mentioned...

Fidelity has 2 fields to fill in when selling-

Order type, where I can pick market, limit, stop loss, stop limit, and various trailing choices).

If I pick market then in the other field- time in force - I can pick market close, on market open, or day.

BUT.

If I pick limit on type, time in force options totally change.... now they show:

Day, GTC, Fill or Kill, Immediate or Cancel, and On Open

But NOT on close.



Over at Merrill Edge, if I select Limit for type, my ONLY choices for duration are Day or GTC.


So no ability to put in a limit on close sell on either far as I can see.

(doesn't look like even market on close is an option for Merrill, though it is for Fidelity)

limit OTC option should become available at 1550 Eastern.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Interesting- some deep ITM covered calls (dated 2022) I had sold awhile back were exercised this morning.

HA! Might be me! I bought these options earlier this year (during the covid dip). It was a 560c that got split into 5x 112c. I exercised them so that I could sell covered calls next week.

 

[UkNorthampton]

If I buy some Tesla shares, I'm a shareholder of record just as the funds are. So I don't see why it would be any more difficult for a naked short-seller to sell to a fund than to you or I. The rules are the same.

My belief in how naked short-selling gets out of hand is that it's quasi-legal. There is a delay between when a share is sold short and when it needs to be delivered. @FrankSG has detailed it more than once here and there are different time limits and exceptions, etc. that have plenty of potential for abuse when there is money to be made. I believe MM's have a way of "floating" these shares in a circle like having 5 checking accounts and writing checks in circles. This worked back in the day when checks were not transmitted electronically and when accounts were based upon trust and good faith. The banks have put an end to individual's ability to "float" checks but we all know the market regulators still have a "trust" relationship with the financial industry that is very comparable to the old banker/client relationship. And, as long as the shares are always eventually made whole, no one's the wiser.

I don't believe I'm a shareholder of record as my broker holds / nominee account. They in turn go through other companies when trading US stocks. The question then becomes, are any of these intermediaries able to naked short. Unlikely for my broker(s) - but possibly for US based/bigger ones.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Is this Gordo's secret lover or alter ego? Can't figure it out....

 

[Prunesquallor]

Something about that story is wrong, unless the guy did a lot of options plays (which it doesn't sound like he did).

$10k invested in 2017 would not make him a millionaire now.

Margin buying could.

 

[SOULPEDL]

View attachment 618858

TD offers it on the app. LOC or MOC.

Thanks, it was MOC.
Strange, just realizing I'm not setting a price, just whatever? Isn't there a limit version of this?
Kinda scary...

 

[StealthP3D]

I like knowing that most of the posters on here suffered through gorden johnson and the others.

Suffered? Gordo was better than most people I've seen on Comedy Central!

 

[Knightshade]

Too many dips lately. Fresh out of dry powder!

I'm out of dry cash, but had a stupid amount of margin sitting around... options seem pretty overpriced right now so seemed the right time to sell some, but didn't want to sell against core shares in case we get something nutso like huge spike tonight where folks exercise early to grab a quick cash in or something goofy.

So I used some margin to do buy/writes- bought around 665, selling 670 call Feb 2019 for about $9000 premium per contract.


If somebody wants to exercise those early today on a spike- great, I'll let them speculate and pocket the 9k per contract for paying like $2 in margin interest.

If they hang around to expiration I'm ok with that too, I've never had margin shares I haven't been able to stay WAY ahead of margin interest on selling covered calls, even when SP has dipped well under the basis price, until it came back above.

 

[Buckminster]

As we stare into how the day is going to unfold, here is an update on the delta hedge inventory. The hedge need estimate (Using 60% or raw numbers below) is a bit shy of 150 million shares (corresponding to the 245 million number today in the table below)

While this is high, we have seen higher levels. This was as high as 290 million raw hedge need, right after the announcement of the stock split. So 245 million is not off the charts number, and we will perhaps hit that threshold if we see prices around 800.

Interesting to note that almost 50% of the gamma (increasing delta with price phenomenon) is from options expiring today (~35 percentage points) and next week (~14 percentage points). As holders of these options sell, that should provide some additional liquidity to the index buyers. I'd say these option holders are well positioned to profit off and provide liquidity at the same time. They represent anywhere from 21 to 36 million shares (net) in at prices ranging from here to 800 (raw numbers would be 35 to 60 million). As a bonus I am also publishing the hedge need by expiry for large moves as things stand today.

View attachment 618789


View attachment 618790

Can't see 60 million shares being made available for this today. That is half of what is needed. Anyway, won't they rollover their TSLA options or convert to TSLA shares in a lot of cases?

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1339975507526504450?s=20

View attachment 618859

Indexers have put in MOC and LOC orders for 130M shares.​

Does Gary have a way of actually knowing this? Bloomberg terminal, etc...

Presumably Gary can see how many shares are available to buy at the close also. Zilch?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Note my message from yesterday. You can do this in Think or Swim but NOT the regular TD Ameritrade app.

It looks like you can also do MOC on the TD website but not LOC. Weird.

 

[Stone_Watcher]

Thanks, it was MOC.
Strange, just realizing I'm not setting a price, just whatever? Isn't there a limit version of this?
Kinda scary...

LOC is Limit on Close and does what you want.

 

[Knightshade]

View attachment 618872
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1339953776329961474?s=21

Already posted several pages ago.

The fact they didn't change the rule suggests they think there's plenty of liquidity so it won't be neccesary

 

[Big Time]

I think everyone is forgetting about the 30 billion dollar short interest riding on this! We want that money first!
Gimmi gimmi gimmi

 

[FrankSG]

View attachment 618858

TD offers it on the app. LOC or MOC.

Let me add to this that the LOC orders will be filled at the same price as the cross happens. I tested this with some LOO (Limit on Open) orders today:

Interestingly enough, the $670 LMT order did not get filled, so presumably there was inadequate liquidity.

 

[StealthP3D]

Construction at Tesla Berlin halted due to Tesla failing to pay.
Tesla Giga Berlin buildout halted anew as state office demands €100M security deposit

Now where the hell do they think Tesla is going to get $100 million? That's not chump change!

/s

 

[dakh]

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1339975507526504450?s=20

View attachment 618859

Indexers have put in MOC and LOC orders for 130M shares.​

Does Gary have a way of actually knowing this? Bloomberg terminal, etc...

From what I can tell 1) LOC order are submitted after 1550 and 2) Indexers shouldn't be interested in limit orders, they explicitly want MOC and MOC only.

 

[SOULPEDL]

LOC is Limit on Close and does what you want.

Yup, no LOC, so opening up Think or Swim then... I figure I have all day, but sooner is better than later for sure!

 

[Big Time]

Macros trending back towards even