Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[46&2]

Why are you not counting the dead ones?

Density is a momentary measured thing, a variable describing the state at a time

 

[lklundin]

Tesla is again forced to stop construction at Gigafactory Berlin due to missing $100 million deposit - Electrek

Wow, Tesla levered 5B in stocks offering, could Germans give their approbation for this incredible business proposal and stop begging for deposits. Elon must be pissed at all the politics and lobbying working against Tesla since the beginning. The opposite of Giga Texas.

I will offer some opposing points:
1) German laws and regulation are public knowledge so Tesla have merely been incompetent if they did not know that this deposit was required or if they did not pay in time (as it appears that they did not).
2) In the past year it cannot be said that German authorities have been inconveniencing Tesla, they have merely applied relevant laws and regulation as any honest entity should hope for them to do.
3) Tesla chose to build a factory in Germany and one would hope that they made this decision after careful deliberation with a look to the laws and regulation in that and other countries.
4) In the past year, Tesla's work at GigaBerlin has in fact progressed very fast both by local and international standards.
5) Tesla have loads of cash, so they really have nothing to gain from stalling,
6) German authorities on the other hand could not care less whether or not Tesla has the cash and more on hand, they just apply the laws and regulation as they are.

To conclude, I think this shows that Tesla need to make sure that they have their paper work in order also for their dealings in the EU - and to read into this anything on behalf of the German authorities is unwarranted speculation.

 

[FireMedic]

Lots of HoDLers here but sometimes you gotta take profits.

Congratulations on making that tough decision.

I would argue that you don’t “gotta take profits”. I believe many here, like me, are researching on their retirement investments. If you believe, like I do, the Tesla has just begun writing the story… Why would you sell out your position and pay taxes.

Maybe hoping for a dip or a crash? Maybe your a trader and that’s your income? Maybe you’re buying an island (makes sense).

OTOH, If your lifestyle is funded by your income (or in my case, your wife’s income) and you believe in this company; selling out of a growth stock to take depreciating dollars in a 0% interest economy is not something you “gotta” do.

 

[kanweg]

1. Tesla has an extension so work hasn't stopped.
2. The question is whether this particular bill is something new that Germany just added (in addition to the original security deposit) or is it part of the original? If it's a new addition, perhaps Tesla intends to protest as unfair treatment or some such.
3. Interest on $1M is not trivial--even these days.

1. Nothing in my post says anything about stopping.
2. It was part of a preliminary permit issued in November. If there were ground for contesting that, it could have been protested earlier. I gave rational reason for the retainer. This article says a guarantee would be fine as well. It is about Tesla making good on its end of obligations. Tesla forced to stop construction of its Berlin Gigafactory over an unpaid 100 million euro deposit, report says
https://www.businessinsider.com/tes...-deposit-2020-12?international=true&r=US&IR=T
3. Entitlement WOT? A decent way of handling that would have been to ask for an extension beforehand or to provide the bank guarantee. Personally I guess it is an oversight on Tesla’s side (never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence).

 

[lklundin]

So now that last night's (all-time high) closing price for Tesla and the other 499 S&P500 companies have been determined, it should be possible to state with what weight Tesla will enter the S&P500 index.

Has anyone published this weight?

 

[zeed]

All my options on RH went to Zero value at close.

RH has a problem with options pricing... hopefully temp.

I use both Merrill and Webull. I had no issues at all with either. I really like Webull, visually speaking, especially its Level 2 order book.

 

[dc_h]

SpaceX just had its 26th successful launch in 2020, with the booster returning to land for the 70th time (in total). It's been such an awesome year for SpaceX.

I also saw someone on NSF say that if SpaceX's 92B valuation holds, then with TSLAs jump yesterday, Elon has now overtaken Bezos. That's just wild. Does anyone know how far behind Bezos he were a year ago?

According to Gordon Johnson, Elon was worth less than me last year and still is.

 

[hobbes]

For something relaxing/weekend OT after the exciting day yesterday: FSD completes Lombard St without intervention!

 

[ZeApelido]

You live in Phuket? I visited once, and not sure I'd get any sleep let alone sleep in on the inclusion event. Would love to join you. Beaches are very nice too. Maybe if I run away someday...

Thailand is great. I've often said I'm moving there.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Is the theory that the share price was forced down low at 12:45 so that it could only rise 10% from that low point?

Because it looks to me like 695 is right around 10% higher than the share price was at that time.

Implying that if it was allowed to rise 10% from where it was in the 670s just prior to that, we could have seen a 10% increase to the mid 700s.

I don’t understand why closing cross price was at $695 instead of $731. The last trade before close was $664.99. That means the closing price was only up 5%. How could there be so many unmatched shares without hitting the 10% limit? Were there really zero sellers with limits between $695 and $731?

 

[hobbes]

New public update from @Troy for total deliveries 2020 is 502.000 (rounded), up from 500.000 a month ago. He estimates it is 65% likely we Tesla will break 500,000:

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1340334780131516416

 

[Knightshade]

I would argue that you don’t “gotta take profits”. I believe many here, like me, are researching on their retirement investments. If you believe, like I do, the Tesla has just begun writing the story… Why would you sell out your position and pay taxes.

FWIW not everyone has all their TSLA in taxable (for immediate sell/buy) accounts.

If you expect inclusion price is a local peak, where it'll dip sometime in the near future though eventually go higher, then selling in an account where your growth isn't taxed might well be the smart play.

At that point you can either sell puts or just wait on the dip depending on your preferences and feelings about timing (and premium levels I suppose)

In my IRA for example I moved in mid/late November from all shares to all Jan 15 2021 calls.

I sold those calls late this week, for about 3x the money I started with. I then immediately sold 12/24 puts with the cash... then during the very brief crash late Friday bought them back for another 20% profit (that last was an unexpected bonus).

This will eventually move back into shares, likely at least 1.5-2x more shares than I started with... depending what Monday looks like I'll probably start moving toward that either by reselling puts if SP opens high again, or doing some buy/writes if it drops but IV remains good.


In contrast in a cash account where I'd have had to pay short-term gains on a chunk of shares, I just HODLed those.... (I did put in a high limit order on Friday that was 4 figures, with a 99.99% expectation it'd expire unfilled- the $695 price was way too low to be worth the tax hit selling those would've seen).... I also had some shortish-term options I already held there back from the Sept dip that I sold because I felt inclusion was a peak in value for those... and I also used some margin that created to do some buy/writes there taking the premium for selling for just a buck or two above what I paid for the shares, essentially paying a couple dollars in margin interest for thousands of dollars in premium on each contract while IV was high.


I expect there's 100 other folks here who all did 100 other things that also turned out pretty well (and some that didn't)

There's lots of strategies, and even for the same person they might use more than one depending on the accounts they've got, their own internal situation (need for income versus retirement planning, amount of research they wanna put in, risk tolerance etc), any external market ones (IV at the time, things like inclusion events or earnings/delivery news, etc), and everything tempered by some amount of luck/right timing.

 

[Cattledog]

I just (accidentally) figured out how to make MORE money.

During the dip I bought too many 660 dec 18 calls.

This is EXACTLY what happened to me. I was on our company's year-end celebration on Zoom from 2-4 Central, had TMC and Yahoo Finance on two screens (was doing Zoom on laptop, third screen), my part to present/emcee started about 2:30, finished up at 3:02, all the TSLA fireworks going on in the background, couldn't really get away from my closing remarks and say, "um, excuse me, gotta sell some options."

I could have sold earlier in the day, but what's the fun in that...I was going to sell them if they got valuable enough, but they didn't for me, and I thought they finished OTM when I saw closing price initially at 658.xx. Was willing to walk away from that.

Then a few minutes later I see there was the $695 field goal kicked as time expired to win the game and I own a lot more TSLA. And I have a big fat margin loan with Schwab. So no, I am now not at all hoping for a pullback on Monday.

Apparently I can sell before the end of the day on Tuesday and take the result (could be up, could be down) but I think I'm gonna let it ride.

My college-age son also was able to get his hands on a PlayStation 5 on Friday, but I told him TSLA is way more fun...

 

[MikeAtkinson]

It looks to me like there is active construction in 5 plots around the site as well as the new extension they started a few days ago.

 

[ZsoZso]

Do you know what their ranking was last year? This could just be having the wrong call and going short on one company that x10 caused their ranking to tank. Inversely having the right call shot up their ranking.

If that's the case then the data doesn't really mean much besides the obvious.

No, I do not know all of their ranking from last year, just some anecdotal points, e.g. I know Gordon had a low rating last year already.
I did a quick search on this thread to see if there was any mention of them and found a few posts relevant:
Kallo had been highly rated already before the TSLA runup:
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
Tamberino (who I did not inculde as he does not currently have a TSLA price target, but used to be very bearish) had a bad rating and low price target last year:
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
Interesting statistic from a year ago "Tipranks show TSLA as the 11th most popular holding and the 6th most popular holding of top performers.":
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

The very reason I did this data collection was that from my memory of various mentions of tiprank ratings of various bears and bulls, I felt there was a correlation and wanted to check the data.
So I do not think it is just a result of the TSLA rise, my gut tells me doing this a year ago would have resulted a similar graph.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla Registration Stats (teslastats.no)

Norway deliveries continuing to explode. Another 200+ today

 

[Mich]

I don’t understand why closing cross price was at $695 instead of $731. The last trade before close was $664.99. That means the closing price was only up 5%. How could there be so many unmatched shares without hitting the 10% limit? Were there really zero sellers with limits between $695 and $731? View attachment 619253

Maximal liquidity is the goal. By moving the price up the closing cross gets more sellers but also looses some buyers with limit orders. So maybe that's the math.

 

[Gabos]

Maximal liquidity is the goal. By moving the price up the closing cross gets more sellers but also looses some buyers with limit orders. So maybe that's the math.

But then 40+M sellers appeared at lower prices in AH, puzzling

 

[Davidzhao365]

https://twitter.com/ericbalchunas/status/1340297373269057537?s=21

 

[2daMoon]

For consideration over the weekend ...

TL : DW

In a really worse case scenario of TSLA being only worth $2500/share in 2030, the least it should be worth today is ~$800/share.

In a medium case scenario of TSLA value of $10K/share in 2030, the least it should be valued at today is ~$3200/share.

Worth the watch if you want to follow how Warren Redlich reaches these figures.