Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

And, what?

Do you feel Tesla is a company that shies away from hard and time consuming projects that ups the pace of the transition to sustainable energy?

I think Tesla/Musk would look at the business models of OEMs (obscene advertising budgets, dealership overhead, pension obligations, corrupt unions, lack of S/W talent) and conclude the mission could be accomplished more efficiently by building as many cars as possible themselves.

 

[Unpilot]

I would not think TSLA has any inherent floor or ceiling, simply because it's always been a momentum stock which trades on sentiment.

Everyone who isn't a TSLA shareholder likes to scream at the top of their lungs that the company currently sports a trailing P/E of 1,300 or thereabouts and there is no fundamentals analysis where the company is mathematically anything resembling a value stock or whatever it is that the Bogleheads and the acolytes of Benjamin Graham like to harp on. So TSLA's "fair value" is whatever the balance of buyers and sellers think it is today, and we all know from the last 10 years that this balance can shift very abruptly with dramatic results.

So I'll just pull a Morgan Stanley here and say the floor is probably $0 and the ceiling is probably infinity and I can reasonably expect that the SP will definitely be between zero and infinity for the next 50 years.

Hate to be a party pooper but .......Adam J ...you are not welcome here.

 

[Mike Ambler]

I often replay old trades, not to depress myself, or regret, but to try and make better choices the next time.

Me too (and the ones others made... like the $1 jan21 650s), but I just seem to end up regretful and depressed . Watched you make the 1400 buy, too!

There must be a lesson in here somewhere.

 

[Tslynk67]

Hello ladies [Insert smooth talker voice here]. That would be me, I usually lurk in the shadows but this time my big mouth got my story shared by Kimbal and liked by Musk. What a simulation.

Peace and Love y’all. Thanks for the nice comments. Over 1.4 million people saw that. I never shared anything with even my closest friends or family, much less the entire world. Needless to say it’s been a fun, and yeah a bit nerve racking week. I want to regret ever saying anything but I can’t deny it’s been a fun 15 minutes of fame.

You a Rush fan as well as a Teslanaire?

I was in the Financial Times a short while back: Subscribe to read | Financial Times

 

[2daMoon]

I think Tesla/Musk would look at the business models of OEMs (obscene advertising budgets, dealership overhead, pension obligations, corrupt unions, lack of S/W talent) and conclude the mission could be accomplished more efficiently by building as many cars as possible themselves.

I wholeheartedly agree. But, he has said recently that he would consider collaboration with other auto makers.

If he saw that doing so could/would help increase the pace to sustainability a closer look would be undertaken before dismissing the idea out of hand.

 

[UkNorthampton]

The lower graph is Tesla only?

Model 3 only - worth playing with the various graphs. Here's one for Norway December 2020 by Model of Model 3. Sensible Norwegians

Then another with % by Model type (so no absolute values). Shanghai (Made In China - MIC) for the 3 countries (but none for Norway yet). NB Green => Red shift

 

[UkNorthampton]

Wow, just realized that the Falcon's first cargo mission to the ISS and the first production model S rolled off the factory floor happened when they first announced Cyberpunk 2077. Since then, they created and perfect self landing rockets, had two successful falcon heavy launches, mass produced S, X, 3, Y, built 2 giga factories, built out an entire supercharging network, flew humans to the ISS successfully, completed the starship belly flop, reinvented the battery and built FSD from scratch while Cyberpunk gets pulled from the digital store for being a buggy mess as of yesterday.

Yet bears still want more out of Elon. There' simplify can't be more achievements in this period of time from anything on earth.

VW adding thousands of software jobs (devs, release, change, product owners, prescriptive-agile oxymorons) doesn't bode well. VW ID 2077 anyone?

 

[Unpilot]

I read from the people you mention above religiously and I love and miss nafnlaus. I also have high 6 figures in TSLA shares that I plan on holding for a decade or so. [sorry I only started in 2018] I sold zero shares Friday. Actually I always secretly hope for a crash so I can buy more. I am primarily a HODL however I have another account that I day trade in because it’s very easy money. I take the profits and buy more TSLA in my long term account. HODL is the way however it’s nice to make a grand, or two free shares, on a red day. If I had thousands of shares I’d just be trading options but I don’t so I’m left to just trade the stocks. I wish active traders weren’t so on around here. Many of us are doing it. And, frankly, to those who do nothing but HODL why are these people posting here 24/7? Love you all, just give us traders a break.

 

[MABMAB]

Well, good for you - let us know in another year how you fare - ths apparent success in calling tops and bottoms is very much the classical statistical fallacy: out of tons of Tweeters calling tops and bottoms, a few will appear to be right 90% of the time.
AND, unless you have access to proprietary data or even better have a way to move the markets with faked buy /sell orders posted and removed right before execution, you will NOT beat the algos.

In a rising market a lot of folks think of themselves as geniuses ... good thing Tesla is a long way before its flow ebbs, but this reminds me of MABMAB who had some success, and got help from Paydirt76 and his options thread .. then went on to *disparage* Paydirt76, who knows why .. Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide.. I wonder what's going on in MABMAB's head .. well it reminds me to ignore him. O and I see he was already banned once .. it's thanks to people like him that we probably lost great members like nafnlaus etc

Re " Tesla investors" I have had a hard time stopping (couldn't, so just let it go) the couple friends whow I took pains to convince and invest part of their portfolio in TSLA. Can't blame them I went through that phase many years ago. But durn .. if you really want to "time TSLA" you have to have an in depth understanding and knowledge of technical analysis AND other forces ... all of which is graceully provided free of charge by PapaFox and Artful Dodger

Huh?
ALL of my success is due to myself. I did not trade based upon Paydirt. He did not help me.
I tried to learn the basis or rules of what he was doing. I wanted to learn to fish, to fully own and understand what he was doing. The few minutes of stuff he wrote, or messaged me, did not allow that. I am unwilling to blindly follow a trade and judge that do as gambling, because I've done that and lost my arse. I found his discussion superficial, he did not do what he said, and he left just as quickly as he blew in here. If you did not agree with my interpretation of things, fine, but it was my interpretatio.

My success in TSLA is long standing, public, and there is internet evidence of the same (though you likely have not seen it). I do not try and convince others.

My mother taught me that nobody makes you do anything.

I would have rather BOUGHT the close on Friday than sell it.

 

[winfield100]

Not too many of us have been investors through multiple recessions and multiple usustainable booms. Those of us who have know the rules:

1. Choose your investments very carefully; it's often easy to mistake size and hype from fundamental value. Spectacularly, think Enron;
2. Once you choose ignore market fluctuations, but...
3. Because (2) is not possible, don't gloat when it's high, don't panic when it's low;
4. Obsess over fundamental changes. if those change for the worse, sell!
5. Remember those immortal words emblazoned on Douglas Adams' famous Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy cover: Don't Panic!
There are numerous lists of comparisons.
I have said a few times here that, having learned about derivatives from serious experts, there are only a handful of simple rules that nearly all ignore, including Nobel prize winners:
1. Stochastic models work within their boundary conditions and fail utterly outside them;
2. ALL models used to evaluate future events are inherently stochastic;
3. There are consistent winners in the world of securities trading. Those are market makers. Everyone else loses eventually because,
4. The derivatives markets and products are designed as Casino products-only the house wins long term.
5. having designed a few such profits in a past life I know I am not an expert, but, I also know that principle is correct and immutable.
6. Just as with casino products there are a few people who make their living with this products, usually by beating people whose judgement is even poorer than theirs.
As with items 1-6 there are many highly analytic people who disagree who build and defend various charts, models and 'metrics of value'.
FWIW- a colleague of mine makes a very nice living building model to predict horse races and evaluate individual horse values (he takes ZERO positions himself);

I know neither Audi nor I can convince anybody that prudence has value. OTOH, we are both older than the vast majority of people who invest in TSLA or anything else.

@jbcarioca
im still in the accumulate and HODL phase
went silent maybe 1/2 year ago.
letting whiz kids of ARK do heavy lifting of _what_ to accumulate so look at top 10 holdings of their 5 main funds, many feature TSLA as 12% or so of holdings ! (12%!!, not 10% or less)
i also multiply price of TSLA by 5x for reality.
wish i was a lot younger too.
love that renewables, wind, solar, EV's, batteries are finally being discussed mainstream after 50 years,
"the roads must roll" and "let there be light"
you stay safe, etc

 

[brianhn1]

Friday’s action. Former CEO of Dogecoin and I had the same response.

*Sets limit sell order of 2,722...(height of Burj Khalifa ft)*

 

[Artful Dodger]

S&P: We think deliveries could reach over 870,000 in 2021.

Current consensus for FY2021 is 777,000

Agreed. This implies just 3K/week addition production vs capacity exiting 2020 Q4.

Shanghai Model Y ramp should provide that easily. That's only 150K/yr MiC Y, which is coincidently the typically low-ball public estimate from Tesla.

TL;dr 870K in 2021 easy; more if Germany or Texas spools up in 2021.

Cheers!

P.S. 870K would be an 75% YoY production increase for Tesla. Wowsers!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

16 pages behind. I don't remember you guys posting this much on a weekend in a long time!

Does anyone know what the pre S&P announcement share price was? Was it around 408? How do you look that up?

It's a 16 page substance-less argument about FSD valuation, don't bother reading. And a bit of SEC championship regional viewership discussion.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Tesla Bulls Double Down as Stock Reaches New Heights
Tesla Bulls Double Down as Stock Reaches New Heights
-WSJ

“It is nutty horrible being short something that quadruples,” said John Hempton, the founder of Bronte Capital, a hedge fund in Australia that oversees about $1 billion in assets. He closed his position earlier in the year ahead of an August stock split. “The valuation is absurd. But the holders are also insane.”

edit: Vincent Wu is interviewed in the article

 

[HG Wells]

My mother taught me that nobody makes you do anything.

Must not be married.

 

[Krugerrand]

This post is so clueless I don't know where to begin and end.

Not clueless. Troll. Start by not starting.

 

[ggr]

Since there is a clear incentive for information distortion to convince shareholders that the demand is satisfied and, so, possibly induce them to sell (not even remotely suggesting you, @Artful Dodger, are trying to do this) that it behooves us all to consider the data critically.

I doubt anyone thinks index funds could not have gotten enough shares.

It is rather that folks doubt that volume alone is proof that there were necessarily enough distinct and real shares being sold and that such shares that were available necessarily wound up being bought by index funds in sufficient quantities that the funds necessarily fulfilled their purchase requirements.

Maybe they did, maybe they didn’t.

Even if they did, we’d also need to know how many synthetic shares were manufactured to get a confident read on any remaining demand looking forward.

I’m not saying volume is meaningless; just that in and of itself (or even together with pricing), it is insufficient to draw conclusions about purchase completion by indexes.

Honestly, this seems like such a simple and obvious point, it’s hard to believe there’s disagreement.

I’ll stop beating what may be a dead horse

I agree with him:

Here's a theory. The Market Makers needed the price to end below $700, so they massively shorted before and during the closing cross. The index funds got most of the shares they wanted, but now the shorts will have to cover. They just postponed the pain.

Dr. Richard M. Naloxone (@NaloxoneM) https://twitter.com/NaloxoneM/status/1340435405976399872

 

[UkNorthampton]

And, frankly, to those who do nothing but HODL why are these people posting here 24/7? Love you all, just give us traders a break.

Obsess over fundamental changes. if those change for the worse, sell!
@jbcarioca
jbcarioca

 

[Spacep0d]

Please don't lump Cathy in with cramer. Cramer got on the wagon very late in the game imo. I got in a twitter fight with some of his team not much more than a year ago where they were absurdly bearish on Tesla.

Fair point, and I didn't mean to make an equivalence. I'm just seeing his position recently as I've only been an owner since August of this year (investor around the same time). Thanks for clarifying the history as this is good to know.

FYI Cathie Wood spells her name as I wrote it with an 'ie' and not a 'y'.

 

[ggr]

16 pages behind. I don't remember you guys posting this much on a weekend in a long time!

Does anyone know what the pre S&P announcement share price was? Was it around 408? How do you look that up?

The announcement was after market Nov 16. Go to Yahoo Finance and pull up the Tesla chart.

(Go to the full screen chart above the little chart, select 3M view, then you can see the day's statistics.
Closing price on 16th was $408.09, opening on 17th was $460.17.