Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Big Time]

What is everyone’s thoughts on Troys 180K deliveries estimate?

He does great work, last quarter he overshot by 3-4K I believe. Too bad we are so very close to guidance, if he overshot by 3-4K we won’t make guidance. I see why Elon sent his email. I personally think it matters little, but FUD storm would be not so pretty. Gordon would get a hard on lol

I hope they pull it off.
you guys follow Morten on Twitter? Great ship analysis. Norway going great

 

[Mo City]

What is everyone’s thoughts on Troys 180K deliveries estimate?

He does great work, last quarter he overshot by 3-4K I believe. Too bad we are so very close to guidance, if he overshot by 3-4K we won’t make guidance. I see why Elon sent his email. I personally think it matters little, but FUD storm would be not so pretty. Gordon would get a hard on lol

I hope they pull it off.
you guys follow Morten on Twitter? Great ship analysis. Norway going great

Troy's track record speaks for itself. Yesterday, he put the chances of achieving 500k deliveries for 2020 at 65%.

My interpretation is he feels strongly the number will be very close to 500k, more than likely a little higher. Seems logical to me. Rob Maurer's Q4 forecast of 200k seems outlandish.

IMO, we are well past the point of worrying how FUD affects Tesla or TSLA. That enemy has been defeated. Time to move on and focus on the relevant.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I'm curious if there is a point that people feel like would be good for Elon to step away from Tesla. I'd love to see him commiting more energy to neuralink and boring co. It seems like he built a pretty amazing company of people at Tesla. It would be nice to seem him step back just so that him getting hurt or something could no longer hurt the stock. And I say that not because of personal wealth but I think at this point Tesla stock incentives are a big reason Tesla isn't going to lose any top talent any time soon. IMO the only real apparent risk left to tesla is Elon getting hurt/sick and if negatively impacting sentiment towards the company. A peaceful planned transition where he stays on as advisory/board seems like it could do Tesla quite a bit of good at some point.

I say that because in my head Tesla is now a self sustaining innovator that is less reliant on him in a practical sense. But I obviously have no clue how true that is.

Tesla is Elon's cash cow to help fund SpaceX and its run to Mars. I don't see him getting out until that dream is a reality.

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Just throwing this completely off topic bit out there in honor of @Lycanthrope avatar.

Dan

 

[Jobbie]

Did Nano One just enter a Cathode Evaluation Agreement with Tesla?

This is interesting

 

[dc_h]

I watched Biden live on CNN. He stated EV’s made by union workers.

Hopefully that idea is not set in stone...

I’m not sure there’s a legal way to base incentives on union or non union workers. I’ve been surprised at our ability to stretch rules lately though. Elon might be smart to develop a workers union based on German rights and keep the UAW out.

 

[HG Wells]

Just throwing this completely off topic bit out there in honor of @Lycanthrope avatar.

Dan

Wait a minute. You mean he wasn't talking about Rush Limbaugh ?

 

[JimS]

IMO, we are well past the point of worrying how FUD affects Tesla or TSLA. That enemy has been defeated. Time to move on and focus on the relevant.

Well put and worth repeating!

 

[Tslynk67]

I wouldn’t even be surprised. There’s a portion of the left that really hates Elon/Tesla.

You gonna buy a Bolt because it gets a special "Union built EV" subsidy that makes it half the price of a M3?

No, me neither...

 

[Tslynk67]

This got me itching to do some very rough napkin math to ballpark a 2030 PT from two different angles.

Angle 1 - Revenue multiples using energy + auto TAMs

Assumptions:
- EVs are 100% of new car production in 2030
- Quick google showed an energy TAM of ~1.5T and quick math on 100m vehicles produced a year x 25k ASP gets us 2.5T. So I'll call it 2T TAM for both totaling 4T
- 5% market share across both TAMs. This is very conservative on the auto side, given EV market share we've already seen, and very bullish on the energy side giving benefit of the doubt to Elon's guidance on energy side quickly catching up to auto revenue

2030 @ 5% of 4T TAM = 200B

5x: 1T mkt cap, PT: $1,315 <-- very conservative for a company growing @ 40-50% CAGR
10x: 2T, PT: $2,630
20x: 4T, PT: $5,260
50x: 10T, PT: ~$13,000 <-- We've seen crazier things, like NKLA's valuation for instance


Angle 2 - Stretching ARK's 2018 generated 2024 model
For anyone that doesn't already have it, here's ARK's open source TSLA model: ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model

Turning our attention to the Tesla Valuation tab, we can make some assumptions about 2030. Here, I'm going to adjust just one variable:

1. Percent of all Teslas in autonomous fleet in 2024: 330%
​

This bumps the model from 10m vehicles in the fleet to 33m to better reflect the size of the fleet by the end of 2030. Still conservative given Elon's guidance on 20m produced in 2030 alone.

Revenue: 1.1T
Suggested Price: ~$6,800 (34k pre-split) - implies a 4.5-5x revenue multiple

​

Not too shabby for a first post! Welcome

 

[FireMedic]

S&P credit upgrade, shorts cover their Friday shenanigans, holiday software update, FSD beta release widens, P&D numbers, 2020 earnings, 2021 guidance...the catalysts are too numerous to count.

Next stop GS PT $780?

 

[Tslynk67]

here in the South.
I am watching the SEC Title Game.
Ford just had a 100% reusable energy, EV/Mustang Commercial. THIS IS THE SOUTH YA ALL?!

Along the same lines, while watching a YouTube video yesterday and advert popped up - normal these days. but this was for Mercedes electric Sprinter vans. I watched the whole thing and it was really informative, dispelling some myths and FUD about EV's. I was very impressed indeed. Wind of Change...

 

[Tslynk67]

Maybe I’ll check back after Q4 deliveries....when the board’s sentiment turns cheerful again . Cheer up y’all...2021 will be epic!

The opening price on January 2nd., 2020, was $84.90, so we're exiting the "terrible" year of 2020 with ~8x that.

I can't possibly imagine how much more "epic" 2021 could be, but I'm sure looking forward to it!

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

There’s no doubt there will be downside (already there has been some mentally), but at some point when Tesla is $2000/share and I finally can build my dream house, word is going to go out to anyone that visits. It was crushing to keep everything inside, having no one to talk to, and I know it’s going to backfire in some ways but it might open avenues left untraveled in other ways. Fingers crossed.

Wish you success on your journey.

You may find that some people view you differently once they become aware of your new wealth. Some will be jealous, others fearful, and hopefully some supportive.

Their fear will sometimes manifest itself in very different ways. Even though you may not have changed, some people feel that your wealth somehow spotlights their failures, and you can become a specific or inadvertent target if their resultant emotions.

It will likely serve you well to be mindful of this.

Take care if your health. Just like many do here with TSLA, we separate the Gordos from the Cathie Woods, and the paid shills, entrenched & vested interests from reality using first principles, or at the very least some objectivity - do the same with what you put in your body. Avoid the FUD.

There will be much to learn. Wishing you and everyone here the likely resultant and significant rewards.

 

[Tslynk67]

I hear the polar bears there wear armor.

I've heard dust up there is pretty magical as well. I vote power the batteries with that.

On a more serious note I would love to hear about the economics of this project, like ROI on the battery pack and such. I can't read Norwegian or have a membership to that site.

I'm so excited to see Tesla energy ramp up. Seeing it in a place like this tho where there is no sun in interesting.

Latest rumour is that the deal has been approved by Iorek Byrnison, but Lord Asriel is putting together a counter-offer...

 

[Buckminster]

Not too shabby for a first post! Welcome

Wow, "Not too shabby" is one of the greatest compliments an Englishman can use. You obviously like the cut of his jib.

 

[Tslynk67]

@jbcarioca
im still in the accumulate and HODL phase
went silent maybe 1/2 year ago.
letting whiz kids of ARK do heavy lifting of _what_ to accumulate so look at top 10 holdings of their 5 main funds, many feature TSLA as 12% or so of holdings ! (12%!!, not 10% or less)
i also multiply price of TSLA by 5x for reality.
wish i was a lot younger too.
love that renewables, wind, solar, EV's, batteries are finally being discussed mainstream after 50 years,
"the roads must roll" and "let there be light"
you stay safe, etc

Love to see you post again, has been quite a while!

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Ok, not to pick on Lycanthrope, but it’s time to fess up. Who owns Jan21 80c ($400 pre-split)? There are nearly 52000 of these still open. These, and a bunch of other strikes around that level, are really messing with max pain. Clearly many traders are holding onto some serious gains, probably just waiting for them to be exercised. That’s 5M shares from that strike alone, which a bunch of somebody’s must sell. Man would I love to have been lucky enough to buy those calls a year or two ago.

I've mentioned this before, but feel compelled to repeat it. Fun fact, this time last year I held 10x c650 Jan 15th 21 strikes, that cost $1 per contract, $1000 total premium

I offloaded these in January & February, partly due to not having a clue what I was doing, but I also got spooked by the US/Iran flair-up at the time, I netted around $130k, which is pretty decent, and built the foundation for the rest of the year's successful trading

However, and here's the rub, had I held, they would trade now at $2.8m , same story for the 10x June $1400's I bought in the C19 dip and sold three weeks later for 3x the price - a nice trade, eh? Yes, but those positions would currently be valued at ~$2.2m

So yeah, quite a bit left on the table there Hindsight's a bummer... but one can learn from it. I often replay old trades, not to depress myself, or regret, but to try and make better choices the next time.

Looks like 10k open interest in those $130's still, I know a few of us here bought them, hope some held!

Edit: I was a factor of two too high (damn that split), now adapted

 

[Stretch2727]

Friendly reminder, if you are considering investing money in a S&P 500 tracking fund now that Tesla is included (to diversify, 401k doesnt allow stocks, etc) consider buying SPYX, which is like SPY minus fossil fuel companies.

After seeing first hand how they managed this inclusion not sure I am buying any S & P index funds.

I get passive investing but they are not managing this for their investors. Do they think their investors even know what tracking error is?

This is basically what they did with TSLA.

-Delay a decision in July/August that allowed the stock price to further run up.
-Tell everyone weeks ahead of time it was happening.
-Bought everything together at an all time high price. I guess they never heard of dollar cost averaging.
-Allowed others to profit from the move.

All this to avoid tracking error?

There were other ways this could have been managed. After seeing how they managed this I give them a failing grade.

Big Fat F.

 

[Krugerrand]

Wish you success on your journey.

You may find that some people view you differently once they become aware of your new wealth. Some will be jealous, others fearful, and hopefully some supportive.

Their fear will sometimes manifest itself in very different ways. Even though you may not have changed, some people feel that your wealth somehow spotlights their failures, and you can become a specific or inadvertent target if their resultant emotions.

It will likely serve you well to be mindful of this.

Take care if your health. Just like many do here with TSLA, we separate the Gordos from the Cathie Woods, and the paid shills, entrenched & vested interests from reality using first principles, or at the very least some objectivity - do the same with what you put in your body. Avoid the FUD.

There will be much to learn. Wishing you and everyone here the likely resultant and significant rewards.

So, summed up; he’s about to discover whom are true friends.