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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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So should we pay attention to the Nasdaq futures or S&P futures more now? :p

Just look at TSLA if you want to know if it’s a Green Day or Red Day doe the S&P500. A 10% drop on TSLA would have the algobots sell off the entire market due to unprecedented crash in the index.

When was the last time Apple was ever down 10%? Not even March 20th.
 
So should we pay attention to the Nasdaq futures or S&P futures more now? :p

I’m curious if the S&P indexes still need to sell off a bit to make space for TSLA; seems like everything would be green as the stimulus package seems done and govt seems to be funded at least in the near term.

I have some google and Amazon and those tend to follow the nasdaq closer than the S&P even though they are also indexed in S&P. I would expect the same to remain true for TSLA
 
he also thought he'd be able to do a cross country drive very shortly then too.

And the year after.

And so on...

Elons been provably wrong pretty often on this one.

In fact, the post you link to is example after example after example of proving exactly that

Or to sum up- self driving is, factually, not a solved problem as of today

Exactly. Elon's actual words were garbage. Unreality. Fantasy. Simply useless as regards FSD.

So why do you keep castigating people for not believing Elon's actual words? That's what I asked. And you either misinterpreted or ignored. Don't you pay attention to yourself and your own arguments? I'm objecting to your inconsistency.
 
~~~Moderators, and especially I, are becoming weary of the same Usual Suspects bickering and the needless and endless contradicting of each other or whomever they feel a need to lash. If you think you may be one of those, you’re probably right. If you think you’re going to be able to keep doing so in the New Year, you’re probably wrong.~~~

And in more important news, in four hours and six minutes from when I’m typing this, the sun is going to start making its way back to those of us in the Northern Hemisphere. For you Antipodeans, well....enjoy your upcoming autumn :p.
 
This makes a lot of sense unless...

What if the runup after the inclusion announcement (Nov 16) was due not only to front-running speculators, but also (or primarily) due to buying by benchmarked funds. Goldman Sachs claimed only 17% of their sample of benchmarked funds owned TSLA, but that was only a few days after the inclusion announcement, leaving a month for the funds to accumulate before Dec 18.

But if frontrunners were not the only or primary sellers during the Friday closing cross, who was? The tweet linked by @ggr seems a plausible answer: market makers short-selling to kill the mountain of $700 calls. Somebody certainly worked hard at 3pm Friday to drop the share price 6% in 45 minutes.

Either way, the result now may be almost the same. Somebody (benchmarked funds or market makers or both) may need to buy lots of shares tomorrow. But if it is mostly MMs needing to cover massive shorting, they will try hard to scare longs into thinking $695 was a bubble top, and will give us the mother of all mandatory morning dips. Don't be scared.

Yes, I wouldn't be surprised to see some carefully timed FUD released shortly. But I think FUD is not as effective as it once was...fool me once, shame on me, fool me twice, shame on you! Most investors are on to the FUD'sters by now. But I do think S&P 500 inclusion might attract a new kind of investor, one who doesn't know much about anything, a seat of the pants, fly by wire investor who likes the appearance of security the S&P 500 brings to Tesla and who might be a little more susceptible to FUD. However, there are not enough of them to substantially change the common observation that FUD has lost most of it's former effectiveness. That won't stop them from deploying it for the small advantage it might bring.

What FUD says to me is some big shorts need to cover their positions! Which telegraphs the message to smart longs that it's almost time to buy some more! :D Because a short covering is no different from a long buying!
 
Yes, I wouldn't be surprised to see some carefully timed FUD released shortly. But I think FUD is not as effective as it once was...fool me once, shame on me, fool me twice, shame on you! Most investors are on to the FUD'sters by now. But I do think S&P 500 inclusion might attract a new kind of investor, one who doesn't know much about anything, a seat of the pants, fly by wire investor who likes the appearance of security the S&P 500 brings to Tesla and who might be a little more susceptible to FUD. However, there are not enough of them to substantially change the common observation that FUD has lost most of it's former effectiveness. That won't stop them from deploying it for the small advantage it might bring.

What FUD says to me is some big shorts need to cover their positions! Which telegraphs the message to smart longs that it's almost time to buy some more! :D Because a short covering is no different from a long buying!

The FUD seems to wane when
Tesla shows positive indicators that are undeniable by any standard.

Examples have been when there is a steady appreciation in stock price like there has been this year, or a major “credibility“ event, like inclusion in the S&P 500. Even those who devise FUD have enough restraint to avoid looking like fools even to their peers.

It has never seemed very logical to me that FUD comes from short sellers other than short selling used by legacy auto who may hope it has effect in moving investors towards them.

Mainly I see FUD as a media mechanism designed to reward and appease advertisers for their money. “Their money” is coming in largest part from legacy auto. It’s the biggest global advertiser, bar none. Who wants to print a positive picture of Tesla and get frowns when their best advertisers come calling to discuss their account?

I, too, like to buy on FUD. It is getting old for almost everyone, but there are still uneducated TSLA owners who are affected enough by it to sell and create buying opportunities.
 
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6:1 is what I want. Keep it low, entomb the shorts
There will soon be no shorts left to speak of. Short interest has already fallen to 5-6% and I expect now that TSLA is an S&P 500 component, the last few shorts excluding a few diehards who will short to their graves like Thanos and Unicorn will now head for the exits. It's hard to imagine Tesla at a short interest of 1-2% like most of the other big index components but I think that day is drawing very near.

The day of victory is at hand indeed, but I wonder what we will do with ourselves now that Sauron has been defeated. Many of us have spent years committed to a fight against the many interests who have tried to destroy Tesla but now the Dark Lord is gone, the tower of Barad-dûr has been cast down in ruin, and soon Middle Earth will be at peace. What then will the victorious do, when the war has been won?
 
When have shareholders ever went against what Elon wanted. Never.
That's not the issue. It's that it wouldn't be a surprise then (unless Elon swears all shareholders to secrecy and holds the vote without anyone else finding out). They can do a 2:1 tomorrow if they wanted. They can not do a 6:1, or even a 3:1.
 
There will soon be no shorts left to speak of. Short interest has already fallen to 5-6% and I expect now that TSLA is an S&P 500 component, the last few shorts excluding a few diehards who will short to their graves like Thanos and Unicorn will now head for the exits. It's hard to imagine Tesla at a short interest of 1-2% like most of the other big index components but I think that day is drawing very near.

While the percentage of the float that is shorted has fallen, the dollars at risk by the shorts has risen. A lot. The shorts use to run what appeared to be a hard limit of ~$10B at risk, but short interest is now up to ~$33B. So short interest is actually more than 3 times what it used to be.
 
There will soon be no shorts left to speak of. Short interest has already fallen to 5-6% and I expect now that TSLA is an S&P 500 component, the last few shorts excluding a few diehards who will short to their graves like Thanos and Unicorn will now head for the exits. It's hard to imagine Tesla at a short interest of 1-2% like most of the other big index components but I think that day is drawing very near.

The day of victory is at hand indeed, but I wonder what we will do with ourselves now that Sauron has been defeated. Many of us have spent years committed to a fight against the many interests who have tried to destroy Tesla but now the Dark Lord is gone, the tower of Barad-dûr has been cast down in ruin, and soon Middle Earth will be at peace. What then will the victorious do, when the war has been won?
As of Friday
$TSLA short int is $32.56BN; 49.64M shs shorted; 6.55% of Float; 6.14% S3 SI% Flt; 0.30% fee. Shs shorted up +1.68M shs,+3.51%, over last 30 days & up +386K shs,+0.78%, last week. Shorts down -$38.84BN in 2020 mark-to-market losses; down -$804M on today's +2.47% move
Via ihor

these numbers are staggering. Unreal.
32 Billion. When I think of back in the day before model 3 got released and doing the math of how many cars Tesla would have to sell to pay off it’s debt. This dwarfs it x3 and it happened in 10 months?! Ouch
Even if Covid wasn’t a thing, Spiegel wouldn’t be eating out any more
 
Was watching billions Season 5 Episode 6 just now, and noticed they're trading TSLA:

Billions TSLA.jpg


Here's the clip (pause at 0:08):

 
Why is 40 pages of FSD speculation and substance-free argument allowed in this thread every weekend?

Does no one have an investment related thought or question in their head while we straddle the inclusion fence?
Because a stubborn group of investors, myself included, believe that FSD and robotaxi is the key factor for deciding whether Tesla is going to be a 15+T valuation or merely Apple sized valuation in a 7-10 year time frame.