Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Big Time]

Yeah looks like Frankfurt 546.00 EUR −4.00 (0.73%) AKA 665.

Not bad. Not good, Not unexpected.

heading to bed, catch y’all in the AM

 

[Runarbt]

Yeah looks like Frankfurt 546.00 EUR −4.00 (0.73%) AKA 665.

Not bad. Not good, Not unexpected.

heading to bed, catch y’all in the AM

I have you covered. Been a restless night, so I might as well get up and take this next shift.

Will try to use me mental powers to push frankfurt in the right direction.

 

[Mo City]

The Germans seemed to ignore the $695 and the after hours entirely. Starting right back where it was a second before close Friday.

I suggest you ignore the German TL0 market since it has no effect on what TSLA does a few hours later in the USA.

 

[mickificki]

Posted this on the Trading thread, but there are more eyes here: Anyone here have TOS for TDA(think or swim for TD Ameritrade)? What my TDA says for my account differs from what my TOS position monitor says. My position monitor for TOS says friday was a +(positive) day, whereas TDA says -(negative) . What gives? Both matched after friday's close, now the TOS is changed.

 

[Buckminster]

Playing with some numbers to try to characterize the final hour of trading on Fri, Dec 18 plus the Closing Cross, and the After-hrs session. Here are computed VWAP, Volume, and Total Trade$ for each of those 3 time spans:

View attachment 619637

As you can see, a significant effort was made to tank the SP in the hour preceding the start of the 10-min Closing Cross. VWAP was nearly $21.50 below the VWAP over the final 10 min (when a volume traded equal to 80% of the walkdown).

Then the Closing Cross happened. Lots of hidden action here, but +$45 premium, and 3.5x the volume of the shortzes 3:00 pm gambit.

Finally, the After-hrs session saw huge volume (~50% more that an average day's total volume), and with a still elevated VWAP of $678.14 with many multi-million share single trades (indicating buying by either Index- or Benchmark- funds).

So, all-in-all, Friday when according to script, MMs had their way (protecting $700 Calls), Index funds (and likely some Benchmark funds) got their shares, and retail shareholder (who understand economics) were able to sell some shares at a good price.

Good Day!

$69Bn you say!

 

[EV forever]

Playing with some numbers to try to characterize the final hour of trading on Fri, Dec 18 plus the Closing Cross, and the After-hrs session. Here are computed VWAP, Volume, and Total Trade$ for each of those 3 time spans:

View attachment 619637

As you can see, a significant effort was made to tank the SP in the hour preceding the start of the 10-min Closing Cross. VWAP was nearly $21.50 below the VWAP over the final 10 min (when a volume traded equal to 80% of the walkdown).

Then the Closing Cross happened. Lots of hidden action here, but +$45 premium, and 3.5x the volume of the shortzes 3:00 pm gambit.

Finally, the After-hrs session saw huge volume (~50% more that an average day's total volume), and with a still elevated VWAP of $678.14 with many multi-million share single trades (indicating buying by either Index- or Benchmark- funds).

So, all-in-all, Friday when according to script, MMs had their way (protecting $700 Calls), Index funds (and likely some Benchmark funds) got their shares, and retail shareholder (who understand economics) were able to sell some shares at a good price.

Good Day!

What is the $72,475,986,058.50 number for?

 

[JBRR]

As of this morning, out of SPY, IVV, XLF and VOO, I'm only seeing Tsla in IVV.

Let's see if they update before market open.

 

[Runarbt]

I have you covered. Been a restless night, so I might as well get up and take this next shift.

Will try to use me mental powers to push frankfurt in the right direction.

Frankfurt dipping down some.. thats ok by me, as I have some puts I want to sell. ;-)

Let the short have some hope... and then we swipe the carpet out from underneat them. Should be some covering by MM from fridays fight to keep it below 700?

 

[Artful Dodger]

What is the $72,475,986,058.50 number for?

Oh, good catch. That's an error in my formula, which was intented to be the sum of all trades over the 4 periods listed. Should be closer to $118.3B...

... and yet, certain people persist that the Index Funds couldn't possibly have got all their shares.

Thanks again,

Cheers!

 

[Runarbt]

What is the $72,475,986,058.50 number for?

TMC collective $tsla gains by 2025 ?

 

[vikings123]

Frankfurt dipping down some.. thats ok by me, as I have some puts I want to sell. ;-)

Let the short have some hope... and then we swipe the carpet out from underneat them. Should be some covering by MM from fridays fight to keep it below 700?


View attachment 619655

If buyers do not show up MMs will continue to push this downwards. There is a HUGE open interest imbalance on calls/puts. So MMs will want to keep this under 650 for this week for sure.

It should be another exciting day, Like someone pointed out earlier this dip might be a good chance to buy some 2023 leaps and of course sell some puts.

 

[vikings123]

Playing with some numbers to try to characterize the final hour of trading on Fri, Dec 18 plus the Closing Cross, and the After-hrs session. Here are computed VWAP, Volume, and Total Trade$ for each of those 3 time spans:

View attachment 619637

As you can see, a significant effort was made to tank the SP in the hour preceding the start of the 10-min Closing Cross. VWAP was nearly $21.50 below the VWAP over the final 10 min (when a volume traded equal to 80% of the walkdown).

Then the Closing Cross happened. Lots of hidden action here, but +$45 premium, and 3.5x the volume of the shortzes 3:00 pm gambit.

Finally, the After-hrs session saw huge volume (~50% more that an average day's total volume), and with a still elevated VWAP of $678.14 with many multi-million share single trades (indicating buying by either Index- or Benchmark- funds).

So, all-in-all, Friday when according to script, MMs had their way (protecting $700 Calls), Index funds (and likely some Benchmark funds) got their shares, and retail shareholder (who understand economics) were able to sell some shares at a good price.

Good Day!

Where do you pull the time and sales data? Is that from Finra? IB has a tool but I cannot export the data.

can you tell us how many shares were traded at the 695$ price in after hours? Or may be provide a link to where I can download the time and sales data?

I believe a majority of AH was at the 695$ price which would strongly indicate that the index funds were buying AH. The question is who were the sellers? Was it the Shorts supplying the liquidity?

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I suggest you ignore the German TL0 market since it has no effect on what TSLA does a few hours later in the USA.

I suggest you stop thinking that there are not a whole lot of European certificates, warrants and various other kinds of investments that are being traded based on the share price based on these markets for the two hours before the US pre market opens.

 

[WarpedOne]

a whole lot

How much is "a whole lot"?
Words such as above carry *no* information, just cloud the issue.

In relation to NASDAQ volume this "a whole lot" is half a mosquito testicle to a whale.

 

[Runarbt]

Frankfurt dipping down some.. thats ok by me, as I have some puts I want to sell. ;-)

Let the short have some hope... and then we swipe the carpet out from underneat them. Should be some covering by MM from fridays fight to keep it below 700?


View attachment 619655

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

How much is "a whole lot"?
Words such as above carry *no* information, just cloud the issue.

In relation to NASDAQ volume this "a whole lot" is half a mosquito testicle to a whale.

Well, just my brooker has hundreds of different ones.

I bought back back some of the certs I sold Friday for 20% less than I sold them. We'll see if I would have been better of waiting for the US premarket but this morning of all mornings it would be a mistake to not keep track of the opening price. I was thinking there was a decent chance the US premarket starting 20 minutes ago would bring prices back up more than it has but it's still a decent gain from buying earlier.

I'm pretty sure I've never commented on it any other morning but to fail to see the larger than normal chance of a massive swing this morning would be a missed opportunity.

 

[Tslynk67]

That's not the issue. It's that it wouldn't be a surprise then (unless Elon swears all shareholders to secrecy and holds the vote without anyone else finding out). They can do a 2:1 tomorrow if they wanted. They can not do a 6:1, or even a 3:1.

There's no share-holder vote needed for a split, it's a board decision.

 

[AudubonB]

Earlier this weekend I posted some calculations using TSLA’s share of the Index at 1.68%.

Reuters is reporting S&P’s spokesman Howard Rosenblatt as stating it will be entering the Index at 1.69%.
Truly phenomenal. Well done, Tesla!

 

[chrsk]

Tech futures down almost 1% and VIX increased by 22% over the weekend. Will be very interesting to see if this approves over the next hours.

 

[hobbes]

Regarding timing of final/comprehensive GF Berlin building permit:

https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1340755433477332992

Environment Ministry Decision on official construction permit Speaker Frauke Zelt, with. Minister Axel Vogel (Greens) considers an approval in January possible

Likely source to Alex´s tweet:
Google Translate

The Brandenburg State Environment Agency is evaluating a hearing from nature conservationists and residents and examining the applications and arguments presented there as well as statements from the authorities, said the spokeswoman for the Environment Ministry, Frauke Zelt. Minister Axel Vogel (Greens) thinks approval in January 2021 is possible. A specific point in time could not be given. Economics Minister Jörg Steinbach (SPD) had told the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" (Saturday) that he was assuming that the decision would come at the beginning of the year.