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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Bet TSLA

Active Member
Dec 8, 2014
2,874
10,696
Cupertino, CA
he also thought he'd be able to do a cross country drive very shortly then too.

And the year after.

And so on...

Elons been provably wrong pretty often on this one.

In fact, the post you link to is example after example after example of proving exactly that

Or to sum up- self driving is, factually, not a solved problem as of today

Exactly. Elon's actual words were garbage. Unreality. Fantasy. Simply useless as regards FSD.

So why do you keep castigating people for not believing Elon's actual words? That's what I asked. And you either misinterpreted or ignored. Don't you pay attention to yourself and your own arguments? I'm objecting to your inconsistency.
 

AudubonB

One can NOT induce accuracy with precision!
Mar 24, 2013
8,296
29,219
~~~Moderators, and especially I, are becoming weary of the same Usual Suspects bickering and the needless and endless contradicting of each other or whomever they feel a need to lash. If you think you may be one of those, you’re probably right. If you think you’re going to be able to keep doing so in the New Year, you’re probably wrong.~~~

And in more important news, in four hours and six minutes from when I’m typing this, the sun is going to start making its way back to those of us in the Northern Hemisphere. For you Antipodeans, well....enjoy your upcoming autumn :p.
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
9,773
78,167
Maple Falls, WA
This makes a lot of sense unless...

What if the runup after the inclusion announcement (Nov 16) was due not only to front-running speculators, but also (or primarily) due to buying by benchmarked funds. Goldman Sachs claimed only 17% of their sample of benchmarked funds owned TSLA, but that was only a few days after the inclusion announcement, leaving a month for the funds to accumulate before Dec 18.

But if frontrunners were not the only or primary sellers during the Friday closing cross, who was? The tweet linked by @ggr seems a plausible answer: market makers short-selling to kill the mountain of $700 calls. Somebody certainly worked hard at 3pm Friday to drop the share price 6% in 45 minutes.

Either way, the result now may be almost the same. Somebody (benchmarked funds or market makers or both) may need to buy lots of shares tomorrow. But if it is mostly MMs needing to cover massive shorting, they will try hard to scare longs into thinking $695 was a bubble top, and will give us the mother of all mandatory morning dips. Don't be scared.

Yes, I wouldn't be surprised to see some carefully timed FUD released shortly. But I think FUD is not as effective as it once was...fool me once, shame on me, fool me twice, shame on you! Most investors are on to the FUD'sters by now. But I do think S&P 500 inclusion might attract a new kind of investor, one who doesn't know much about anything, a seat of the pants, fly by wire investor who likes the appearance of security the S&P 500 brings to Tesla and who might be a little more susceptible to FUD. However, there are not enough of them to substantially change the common observation that FUD has lost most of it's former effectiveness. That won't stop them from deploying it for the small advantage it might bring.

What FUD says to me is some big shorts need to cover their positions! Which telegraphs the message to smart longs that it's almost time to buy some more! :D Because a short covering is no different from a long buying!
 

CanadaEV

Member
Dec 12, 2014
329
1,835
Canada
Yes, I wouldn't be surprised to see some carefully timed FUD released shortly. But I think FUD is not as effective as it once was...fool me once, shame on me, fool me twice, shame on you! Most investors are on to the FUD'sters by now. But I do think S&P 500 inclusion might attract a new kind of investor, one who doesn't know much about anything, a seat of the pants, fly by wire investor who likes the appearance of security the S&P 500 brings to Tesla and who might be a little more susceptible to FUD. However, there are not enough of them to substantially change the common observation that FUD has lost most of it's former effectiveness. That won't stop them from deploying it for the small advantage it might bring.

What FUD says to me is some big shorts need to cover their positions! Which telegraphs the message to smart longs that it's almost time to buy some more! :D Because a short covering is no different from a long buying!

The FUD seems to wane when
Tesla shows positive indicators that are undeniable by any standard.

Examples have been when there is a steady appreciation in stock price like there has been this year, or a major “credibility“ event, like inclusion in the S&P 500. Even those who devise FUD have enough restraint to avoid looking like fools even to their peers.

It has never seemed very logical to me that FUD comes from short sellers other than short selling used by legacy auto who may hope it has effect in moving investors towards them.

Mainly I see FUD as a media mechanism designed to reward and appease advertisers for their money. “Their money” is coming in largest part from legacy auto. It’s the biggest global advertiser, bar none. Who wants to print a positive picture of Tesla and get frowns when their best advertisers come calling to discuss their account?

I, too, like to buy on FUD. It is getting old for almost everyone, but there are still uneducated TSLA owners who are affected enough by it to sell and create buying opportunities.
 
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UnknownSoldier

Unknown Member
Supporting Member
Apr 17, 2017
2,121
12,104
Earth
6:1 is what I want. Keep it low, entomb the shorts
There will soon be no shorts left to speak of. Short interest has already fallen to 5-6% and I expect now that TSLA is an S&P 500 component, the last few shorts excluding a few diehards who will short to their graves like Thanos and Unicorn will now head for the exits. It's hard to imagine Tesla at a short interest of 1-2% like most of the other big index components but I think that day is drawing very near.

The day of victory is at hand indeed, but I wonder what we will do with ourselves now that Sauron has been defeated. Many of us have spent years committed to a fight against the many interests who have tried to destroy Tesla but now the Dark Lord is gone, the tower of Barad-dûr has been cast down in ruin, and soon Middle Earth will be at peace. What then will the victorious do, when the war has been won?
 

MP3Mike

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2016
16,253
36,694
Oregon
There will soon be no shorts left to speak of. Short interest has already fallen to 5-6% and I expect now that TSLA is an S&P 500 component, the last few shorts excluding a few diehards who will short to their graves like Thanos and Unicorn will now head for the exits. It's hard to imagine Tesla at a short interest of 1-2% like most of the other big index components but I think that day is drawing very near.

While the percentage of the float that is shorted has fallen, the dollars at risk by the shorts has risen. A lot. The shorts use to run what appeared to be a hard limit of ~$10B at risk, but short interest is now up to ~$33B. So short interest is actually more than 3 times what it used to be.
 

Big Time

Member
May 8, 2020
816
4,679
MN
There will soon be no shorts left to speak of. Short interest has already fallen to 5-6% and I expect now that TSLA is an S&P 500 component, the last few shorts excluding a few diehards who will short to their graves like Thanos and Unicorn will now head for the exits. It's hard to imagine Tesla at a short interest of 1-2% like most of the other big index components but I think that day is drawing very near.

The day of victory is at hand indeed, but I wonder what we will do with ourselves now that Sauron has been defeated. Many of us have spent years committed to a fight against the many interests who have tried to destroy Tesla but now the Dark Lord is gone, the tower of Barad-dûr has been cast down in ruin, and soon Middle Earth will be at peace. What then will the victorious do, when the war has been won?
As of Friday
$TSLA short int is $32.56BN; 49.64M shs shorted; 6.55% of Float; 6.14% S3 SI% Flt; 0.30% fee. Shs shorted up +1.68M shs,+3.51%, over last 30 days & up +386K shs,+0.78%, last week. Shorts down -$38.84BN in 2020 mark-to-market losses; down -$804M on today's +2.47% move
Via ihor

these numbers are staggering. Unreal.
32 Billion. When I think of back in the day before model 3 got released and doing the math of how many cars Tesla would have to sell to pay off it’s debt. This dwarfs it x3 and it happened in 10 months?! Ouch
Even if Covid wasn’t a thing, Spiegel wouldn’t be eating out any more
 

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,615
21,504
Singapore
Was watching billions Season 5 Episode 6 just now, and noticed they're trading TSLA:

Billions TSLA.jpg


Here's the clip (pause at 0:08):

 
Jan 7, 2015
347
2,718
Earth/EU/DK
Why is 40 pages of FSD speculation and substance-free argument allowed in this thread every weekend?

Does no one have an investment related thought or question in their head while we straddle the inclusion fence?
Because a stubborn group of investors, myself included, believe that FSD and robotaxi is the key factor for deciding whether Tesla is going to be a 15+T valuation or merely Apple sized valuation in a 7-10 year time frame.
 

Big Time

Member
May 8, 2020
816
4,679
MN
Yeah looks like Frankfurt 546.00 EUR −4.00 (0.73%) AKA 665.

Not bad. Not good, Not unexpected.

heading to bed, catch y’all in the AM
 

mickificki

Member
Mar 25, 2016
791
10,986
Long Beach, CA
Posted this on the Trading thread, but there are more eyes here: Anyone here have TOS for TDA(think or swim for TD Ameritrade)? What my TDA says for my account differs from what my TOS position monitor says. My position monitor for TOS says friday was a +(positive) day, whereas TDA says -(negative) . What gives? Both matched after friday's close, now the TOS is changed.
 

Buckminster

Active Member
Aug 29, 2018
3,469
17,941
UK
Playing with some numbers to try to characterize the final hour of trading on Fri, Dec 18 plus the Closing Cross, and the After-hrs session. Here are computed VWAP, Volume, and Total Trade$ for each of those 3 time spans:

View attachment 619637

As you can see, a significant effort was made to tank the SP in the hour preceding the start of the 10-min Closing Cross. VWAP was nearly $21.50 below the VWAP over the final 10 min (when a volume traded equal to 80% of the walkdown).

Then the Closing Cross happened. Lots of hidden action here, but +$45 premium, and 3.5x the volume of the shortzes 3:00 pm gambit.

Finally, the After-hrs session saw huge volume (~50% more that an average day's total volume), and with a still elevated VWAP of $678.14 with many multi-million share single trades (indicating buying by either Index- or Benchmark- funds).

So, all-in-all, Friday when according to script, MMs had their way (protecting $700 Calls), Index funds (and likely some Benchmark funds) got their shares, and retail shareholder (who understand economics) were able to sell some shares at a good price.

Good Day! :D
$69Bn you say!
 

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