My theory is that the SP movement caused by a stock dividend is caused by the extra capital (re-)introduced by forced naked short covering.Underlying question: does a stock move as a dollar value or by a percentage change?
A $1 move post split is 5x the market cap value pre-split and also 5x the percentage change.
If stock price is a fixed multiple of profit, and profit goes up 5%, that is 5% of 1/5 the price * 5x the shares or 5% of 1 share. Same movement.
Psychologically, smaller $ moves are easier to handle though. $16 drop looks better than an $80 drop, even though the change to one's account is the same.
The Aug 11th stock dividend movement was 100% explained by this simple assumption, as I predicted, also on Aug 11th.
In this case, MMs with naked shorts would be forced to cover the missing value of their positions, which was substantial in August. We need to see the next NASDAQ short interest report before I'd estimate the (min) amount of capital MMs would be forced to return to TSLA shareholders.
The larger issue is business practices. If abusive MMs and large hedge funds come to understand that naked shorting is no longer a profitable venture for their TSLA trading, they will move on to short some other equity (no chance they will stop, the rules will change, nor will the SEC enforce current rules or even look to see what is happening).
#STATISTICS don't lie; Liars lie.