Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Runarbt]

Yes, battery capacity is one thing, scaling the vehicle production another.

I still think there's a case for Tesla supplying skateboards* to the rest in order to speed things up.

*Batteries not included

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yes, battery capacity is one thing, scaling the vehicle production another.

I still think there's a case for Tesla supplying skateboards to the rest in order to speed things up.

Perhaps, but we shouldn't underestimate Tesla's ambitions: Remember, Elon's statement at Bty Day in Sep 2020 was that, in the long term, EVs or autonomous cars won't make Tesla unique. It'll be their manufacturing prowness that separates them from the rest.

This is free entreprise. Competition breeds success, and those who can't compete should exit the stage. To me that means Boeing, Airbus, and Hyundai Heavy Industries should all brace for the coming storm of competition.

Elon is certainly setting Tesla up for success if this future comes to pass.

 

[petit_bateau]

You're like an old buddy of mine, very application specific thinking.

Octo-valve on the model 3/Y has already demonstrated that DC HVAC is solved as far as heating/cooling is concerned. Not having to convert Solar/battery into AC and then back into DC again means they can power the HVAC directly from the batteries to minimize conversion losses, AND connecting HVAC to the batteries, means they can optimize the power levels of the HVAC with the power delivery of the solar panels.

There are huge gains in a home's energy efficiency (a marketing bullet point) to be had with further integration of Tesla energy products. There would be zero additional batteries needed with this side project.

However, I agree that this isn't a near term project, since Tesla is also tight on engineering time.

The biggest constraint is cell supply. Until that is relaxed the engineering focus should be on 1) the cell supply & 2) the auto side (the FSD stuff is a separate matter), with 3) stationary a slow third. Only when the cell supplies begin to feed sufficient scale to get proper stationary mfg going without disrupting growth rate of vehicles, should stationary really ramp.

I fully agree on the advantages of being able to do stuff on the DC side as well as the AC side, as that also improves heat management (which is ultimately an avoidable energy loss). But until that cell supply is resolved, however interesting, it needs to be a #3 priority.

So .... I have a suspicion we are in violent agreement.

 

[HG Wells]

Want to remind folks it's almost the end of the year.
That means it's tax time.

Time to look at moving money in or out of IRA's, Roth IRA's, 401K's etc.

Tax rates will only go up. They have a LOT of dept to pay off.

Think about moving money from IRA to Roth. Pay some tax now and have a truly tax free account.
Remember once you hit 72 (was 70) you are forced to take money out of IRA's etc. Then you pay the tax.
Roth is free of both.

NOTE: Moving money to a ROTH must be done by December 31'st not April 15.

REMEMBER: He who dies with the most toys, wins !

Threads to look at: PUT POSTS IN THESE THREADS.

Early retirement strategies

Tax questions and strategies

How much $ to retire and how to fund your lifestyle in retirement

Google MMD Roth IRA etc.

 

[Beezer_9]

GB with 10 reasons why investors should buy TSLA



https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1341707900142706689?s=21

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

There may even be a day when we are bored with watching factory construction videos.

I STRONGLY DISPUTE THIS CLAIM!!!!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Looks like the great push down continues pre market this morning. *sigh* I shouldn't be surprised but it just seems there is a big element that really wants to see Tesla fail.

Oh well, still long. Just gonna grab another cup of coffee.

Dan

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Looks like the great push down continues pre market this morning. *sigh* I shouldn't be surprised but it just seems there is a big element that really wants to see Tesla fail.

Oh well, still long. Just gonna grab another cup of coffee.

Dan

Nothing is real til 8am Eastern, even then......not so much. I smell a Friday landing exactly at the inclusion price of $695. Expire all those $700s worthless.

 

[mad474]

Nothing is real til 8am Eastern, even then......not so much. I smell a Friday landing exactly at the inclusion price of $695. Expire all those $700s worthless.

I envy you Americans. Unfortunately, our german stock exchanges are closed on Friday

 

[vikings123]

Looks like the great push down continues pre market this morning. *sigh* I shouldn't be surprised but it just seems there is a big element that really wants to see Tesla fail.

Oh well, still long. Just gonna grab another cup of coffee.

Dan

Jonas’s note this morning seems to be the catalyst. The push down is on really low volume. Buy with a 540 PT haha

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Christine69420]

Nothing is real til 8am Eastern, even then......not so much. I smell a Friday landing exactly at the inclusion price of $695. Expire all those $700s worthless.

Which Friday? Stock Exchanges are closed on the 25th.

 

[InDaClub]

I envy you Americans. Unfortunately, our german stock exchanges are closed on Friday

Nasdaq is closed at 1:00PM (tomorrow) Thursday and is closed Friday.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Nasdaq is closed at 1:00PM (tomorrow) Thursday and is closed Friday.

END OF THE WEEK

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yes, battery capacity is one thing, scaling the vehicle production another.

I still think there's a case for Tesla supplying skateboards to the rest in order to speed things up.

I still fail to see how this speeds things up. Are body casting and paint the production bottlenecks? That’s all the OEMs would be doing.

 

[Nocturnal]

Pre market Semi-OT
I assume this would also help Tesla with capital raises (if they ever do another) and certainly other Elon companies.
SEC Approves NYSE’s Plan for New IPO Alternative

The SEC approved the new kind of direct listing—which could help startups save on bank fees and capture more of the gains in their share price when they go public—in an order posted on its website Tuesday.

 

[Driver Dave]

Tesla Stock Just Cost Average Investors $7.4 Billion | The Motley Fool

Not quite.

Investing in Standard and Poor’s index of 500 companies they made using rules they set up may have cost the investors of the funds that follow their index money.

The recent price movements and cost to indexers was SP’s own making.

Leave TSLA out of it.

 

[KMCC]

Tesla Stock Just Cost Average Investors $7.4 Billion | The Motley Fool

Not quite.

Investing in Standard and Poor’s index of 500 companies they made using rules they set up may have cost the investors of the funds that follow their index money.

The recent price movements and cost to indexers was SP’s own making.

Leave TSLA out of it.

When Tesla reaches 760 you won't see any articles saying "Telsa stock just made average investors $7.4 billion"

 

[elasalle]

Jonas’s note this morning seems to be the catalyst. The push down is on really low volume. Buy with a 540 PT haha

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Option 1. Market is so stupid they do what Jonas says?
Option 2. Articles like these are dog whistles of intent on how they plan to trade for the next few days.

After a 780$ price target for SP inclusion, $540 after inclusion to get back the shares
Looks like the script was well written few weeks back.
~ cheers!!

 

[ammulder]

OTOH, if Tesla can maintain it's 50% CAGR, then it only takes 3.3 yrs to go from 3 TWh/yr to 20 TWh/yr capacity (people don't 'get' exponential growth).

Maybe... but it may be more likely that 3 TWh/yr is the part of the S curve that's past linear and going into logarithmic. Do I remember right that Battery Day said they aim for 200 GWh/yr from a fully-built-out factory? So are we to imagine that in 3.3 years, Tesla can build and ramp 75 factories to increase production by 17 TWh/yr? I don't think that's ever going to happen -- way too big an ask to manage that many simultaneous gigafactory projects. It's all well and good to hope that the rest of the industry will cover 50% of the battery needs, but it's not like 37 simultaneous gigafactory projects is any more realistic for one company to manage. Can they ramp every factory to 10x the capacity (2 GWh/yr) instead to bring that into a manageable range? Also a very big ask.

 

[mongo]

Maybe... but it may be more likely that 3 TWh/yr is the part of the S curve that's past linear and going into logarithmic. Do I remember right that Battery Day said they aim for 200 GWh/yr from a fully-built-out factory? So are we to imagine that in 3.3 years, Tesla can build and ramp 75 factories to increase production by 17 TWh/yr? I don't think that's ever going to happen -- way too big an ask to manage that many simultaneous gigafactory projects. It's all well and good to hope that the rest of the industry will cover 50% of the battery needs, but it's not like 37 simultaneous gigafactory projects is any more realistic for one company to manage. Can they ramp every factory to 10x the capacity (2 GWh/yr) instead to bring that into a manageable range? Also a very big ask.

You remember incorrectly.
Plan is a TWh in a factory smaller than the final completed size of GF1 which was planned to be 150GWh.
Tesla 2020 Battery Day Transcript September 22 - Rev
Elon around the 2:08 mark:

Definitely. Yeah. So we’re able to, from a volume standpoint, actually get what, in a smaller form factor than Giga Nevada, we’re able to get many times the cell output. So you can see basically we can get a terawatt hour in less space than it took to make a gigawatt hour, 150 gigawatt hours. So this is pretty profound. I would actually not have thought this was possible several years ago, that we could actually get to a terawatt scale in less space than what we currently envisioned for doing 150 gigawatt hours.

Additionally, cell production will ultimately be co-located with vehicle/ storage production (Berlin), so it will be bigger sites, not separate locations/ factories (like Fremont with GF1). Exception may be raw electrode materials processing.