Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Gee, I guess it's "there are many good people on both sides" time. Or not.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4396280-not-merry-christmas-for-tesla-in-netherlands

Anton is back!?...I thought he died after the latest TSLA SP rise.

 

[kanweg]

Most people here will not click on a Seeking Alpha link. You should give us a synopsis so we know what we are ignoring.

It was not a badly written article.

My own take on the Dutch situation.

There is lots of BEV competition in the car market in the Netherlands, with dozens of brands to choose from. Tesla didn’t do very well, both in absolute numbers and relatively. It is not that they are overstocked, so they do sell what they bring to the Netherlands.

The ID3 did indeed do very well, but the numbers that are available are registration numbers. So, these cars are not necessarily sold. There is a change in the BIK rules, so the demand will be there, and all cars now registered qualify for the 2020 BIK rules instead of the 2021 rules. So, the ID3 numbers may be a bit inflated. The ID4 is a success, but any car that is newly introduced benefits from a backlog of orders. As the Model 3 was effectively introduced in the Netherlands in 2019, the numbers of 2019 were similarly inflated, making 2020 look worse.

Having said that, the Model 3 is expensive by Dutch standards. There are many people who don’t like Tesla and Tesla drivers because of all the subsidies they enjoyed, jobs that may have been lost etc. Also the brand suffers from a bad name with respect to quality. Issues surrounding Musk (pedo guy, covid) also have their effect. Another aspect is that there is (finally) a subsidy for private people to buy a BEV, but in view of the above the max was chosen such that the Model 3 didn’t qualify.

Once the Model Y is produced in Berlin, the 10% import duty is not applicable so that may help, unless Tesla decides to absorb that as profit so as to maintain the price difference with the Model 3.

Personally I hope that the price of Tesla’s goes down. A missed sale means much profit lost. A price a bit lower might have resulted in more sales and even more profit. However, as long as Tesla can sell every car they make quickly, production is the bottleneck and those additional cars to be sold just aren’t there. Tesla should spend the additional money at making sure their brand reputation is good. The Chinese can make good cars, hopefully the Germans too. And with the new paint factory, hopefully that issue gets resolved as well. Elon promised very nice colors, so that may help the sales as well.

 

[johnm6875]

Giga-Sweatshop Meets Corporate Overlords: an Exclusive Look Into How Tesla China Runs its Shanghai Gigafactory 3

Giga-Sweatshop Meets Corporate Overlords: an Exclusive Look Into How Tesla China Runs its Shanghai Gigafactory 3- PingWest

The article is long on innuendo/inference and lightweight reports from disgruntled employees and short on meaningful facts about working conditions and quality control issues. The authors hang a lot of importance on the Model S recall which has little or nothing to do with Gigafactory 3. Numerous "inches" of the article denigrate the management style of Tom Zhu (Zhu Xiaotong), Tesla's Global Vice President and President for Greater China. The style rubs the wrong way for some, but I didn't see how it was a great detriment in the overall function of the factory. If it weren't a Chinese based report I'd believe the article was written by the UAW.

 

[StealthP3D]

It is safe to say that direct distribution is more valuable to Tesla than is manufacturing prowess, not least because they can make periodic maintenance unnecessary. Precisely no other OEM could do that.

Thanks for laying that out there in black and white. While the exact figures may be obfuscated and difficult to accurately obtain, anyone with reasonable exposure to the dealership business model and the auto industry as a whole can see how much all that activity costs and who pays for it (people who buy cars at dealerships).

What I find funny is that most auto analysts can't even see this! How can they call themselves "analysts"? People actually listen to what these clowns say? No wonder people think investing is "hard".

While I agree direct distribution is more valuable to Tesla than manufacturing prowess, at least at this point in time, let's not discount the potential value of the rate at which Tesla is increasing their manufacturing prowess. High-speed pressure cast aluminum chassis, ever more compact and efficient production lines, ever increasing economies of scale, optimized supply chains and in-house vertical integration, etc. is adding more value every year.

The very things Tesla was required to do simply to survive as an EV maker in an ICE world are the same things that will eventually make it crazy profitable while wildly accelerating the transition to sustainable transport as others scramble to fill the demand that Tesla cannot. ICE cannot compete with the simplicity of an EV when full advantage is taken of that simplicity. And ICE competitors cannot offer EV's that can erode Tesla's sales or growth. It is literally impossible without not only a major restructuring of the business organization and cost structures but also the very way they think about design and production. This cannot be done in less than ten years and it's more likely that existing manufacturers can't ever achieve parity with Tesla in terms of value proposition.

The declining production cost curve of EV's is driven partly by Tesla's innovation but it would be happening to a lesser degree, even without them. The combination of direct to consumer distribution, declining EV/battery production cost curves and increasing manufacturing prowess, all based on first principles decision making, is a combination that undeniably leads to great success at a minimum, astoundingly unbelievable success is more likely.

Never say never, but we have already seen how these things have allowed Tesla to do the impossible, to break into the established ICE auto market, they are now essentially unstoppable! Look in five years and tell me I was wrong. Yes, TSLA is still a great value! Do not believe the people who say the competition will cause Tesla's sales and profits to suffer! Don't doubt your vibe. Tesla only needs a small competitive edge in terms of pricing and capabilities to thrive. But they have a huge competitive edge that looks to only be growing! Do not make the mistake of failing to believe what your own eyes can see just because it looks too good to be true.

Granted, none of this means the share price will certainly be higher in one month, three months or six months (even if likely). But if you are a long-term investor, that doesn't matter at all.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Kuo: Apple Car Still in Early Stages, Unlikely to Launch Until 2025-2027 at Earliest

I was waiting for input from Ming-Chi Kuo, a well-respected Apple analyst.

"..our latest survey indicates that the current development schedule of Apple Car is not clear, and if development starts this year and everything goes well, it will be launched in 2025–2027 at the earliest."

"...we remind investors that although Apple has a variety of competitive advantages, it is not always successful in new business...we think it's perilous to jump to the conclusion that Apple Car will succeed."

Think "Dyson", James has far more design and manufacturing experience relevant to cars than Apple vacuum-cleaners, fans and hair-driers shame some commonality, and see how that turned-out.

 

[Buckminster]

I thought it was about time that I said something profound on this thread.

I got nothing.

This I think maybe profound after all.

 

[Sofie]

I was asked today “will TSLA stock split again in 2021?”
(I, of course, have no idea but I always entertain conversation involving Tesla)

Any thoughts?

 

[EVMeister]

I was asked today “will TSLA stock split again in 2021?”
(I, of course, have no idea but I always entertain conversation involving Tesla)

Any thoughts?

I think it will. One intention of the initial split was to make the stock more "accessible" to small investors. The stock price is again creeping up to levels that are too expensive for small investors. And I'm no expert on the topic, but I believe a lower stock price could allow entry into the Dow if that's what Tesla wanted to do.

 

[Mich]

Funky idea: Tesla's dojo would be used for the medical purposes as well...? Now THAT would knock valuation models out of the park and make me want to go all in. Oh, hang on, no more money between the cushions - have to sell the couch...

View attachment 621455

So why ARKG when we can just buy TSLA?

(TBH, I'm in the EU so I can't buy any ARKs ETFs. I'd love to...)

 

[Buckminster]

So why ARKG when we can just buy TSLA?

(TBH, I'm in the EU so I can't buy any ARKs ETFs. I'd love to...)

I can through Saxo.

 

[jerry33]

So why ARKG when we can just buy TSLA?

(TBH, I'm in the EU so I can't buy any ARKs ETFs. I'd love to...)

Because some of the bio-tech stocks also have amazing potential. ARKG is in addition to the TSLA that you already have.

 

[Singuy]

I think it will. One intention of the initial split was to make the stock more "accessible" to small investors. The stock price is again creeping up to levels that are too expensive for small investors. And I'm no expert on the topic, but I believe a lower stock price could allow entry into the Dow if that's what Tesla wanted to do.

I hope it will because I have a comment about Tesla stock splitting themselves into a trillion dollar company I would like to repost as aging like fine wine.

 

[Off Shore]

The Apple car news was entirely manufactured by Reuters with suspicious timing, no news, and no sources whatsoever.

The tidbit about LFP batteries indicates that the "people familiar with the matter" actually had "no idea at all".

This. Also, Apple has said NOTHING about it, right?

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Tesla (TSLA) new 4680 battery cell to be produced by Panasonic, report says - Electrek


Looks like the info source of the article above is Nikkei Asia :

Panasonic to build prototypes of new Tesla battery in 2021

 

[kanweg]

I can through Saxo.

Thanks!

At what exchange are they traded (can’t find them on the saxo site in the list with ETFs).

 

[Buckminster]

Thanks!

At what exchange are they traded (can’t find them on the saxo site in the list with ETFs).

NYSE

 

[UkNorthampton]

Most people here will not click on a Seeking Alpha link. You should give us a synopsis so we know what we are ignoring.

Comments are pro-Tesla mostly. I think the shorts have lost and most people see it.

 

[Mich]

tomorrow... We need a 5.03% gain to beat 695 usd... or Tuesday?

 

[Words of HABIT]

Just sold 25% of my TSLA holdings.
My personal situation has changed. After 30 years of literally working myself to death in a very rewarding, however very stressful career, I have now retired from my day job to spend time with family and friends. My wife also just retired so we have gone from two full-time salaries down to nil, no pensions, no savings, only our house, our Model 3 and 99.6% of all other assets in TSLA. Now trimmed to 75% TSLA. We will let this investment ride out for many more years.
Thanks to Elon, all Tesla employees, and all TMC Investment Thread posters for helping making this possible.
Wishing everyone a fantastic, healthy and safe 2021.

 

[bkp_duke]

Tesla (TSLA) new 4680 battery cell to be produced by Panasonic, report says - Electrek


Looks like the info source of the article above is Nikkei Asia :

Panasonic to build prototypes of new Tesla battery in 2021

Meh, it is the form factor. Article is light on details like does it have DBE, etc. For now, I take this as just Panasonic adopting the 4680 format, and nothing else.