New Energy Outlook 2020 | BNEF
NEO 2020 Executive Key Messages:
1. In our core Economic Transition Scenario, global carbon emissions from energy use drop 8% in 2020 and now appear to have peaked in 2019. They rise again with economic recovery toward 2027 but then decline 0.7% year-on-year to 2050, putting the world on track for 3.3 degrees of warming in 2100. To keep global warming well below two degrees, emissions need to fall 10 times faster, at 6% year-on-year to 2050. For 1.5 degrees, the required rate is 10%. In total, Covid-19 subtracts some 2.5 years’ worth of aggregate emissions over the next 30 years.
2. Wind and PV grow to meet 56% of world electricity demand in 2050, with batteries, flexible demand and peakers in support. Leading countries go as high as 70-80% before hitting economic limits. Wind retakes the lead from solar.
3.
Renewables and batteries capture 80% of the total $15.1 trillion invested in new power capacity. Around $2 trillion or 13% is invested by households and businesses. Asia Pacific attracts 45% of all new capital. To enable the power system of the future, $14 trillion in grid investment is needed between now and 2050.
4. Oil demand peaks in 2035 and then falls 0.7% year-on-year to return to 2018 levels in 2050. Electric vehicles (EVs) reach upfront price parity with Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles before 2025, spurring faster adoption thereafter. The growth of EVs offsets demand growth in aviation, shipping and petrochemicals, and shapes the future of oil.
5. Gas is the only fossil fuel to grow continuously through the outlook, gaining 0.5% year-on-year to 2050. Cumulative growth of 33% in buildings and 23% in industry is balanced by declining gas use in power where consumption peaked in 2019 – although gas-fired power capacity continues to grow worldwide. Cheap gas ultimately slows the energy transition in the United States.
6.
Coal demand peaked in 2018 and collapses to 18% of primary energy by mid-century, from 26% today. It is in freefall across Europe and the U.S. Coal-fired power peaks in China in 2027 and in India in 2030. But, despite improvements in energy efficiency and recycling, primary coal demand continues to grow in industry.
7. In the NEO Climate Scenario, our clean electricity and hydrogen pathway
requires 100,000TWh of power generation by 2050. This power system is
6-8 times bigger than today’s, has double the peak demand, and generates five times the electricity. Two-thirds of this electricity goes to direct electricity provision in transport, industry and buildings. The rest is used to manufacture green hydrogen.
8. Green hydrogen provides just under a quarter of total final energy in 2050 under our Climate Scenario. This needs 800Mt of fuel and 36,000TWh of electricity – that’s 38% more power than is produced in the world today. This could be met with a further 14TW of renewables or 4TW of new nuclear. The renewable route might be cheaper but land is an issue.
9.
Reducing emissions well below two degrees under our clean electricity and green hydrogen pathway requires between $78 trillion and $130 trillion of new investment between now and 2050. That’s around $64 trillion on power generation and the electricity grid for direct electricity provision, and between $14 trillion and $66 trillion on hydrogen manufacturing, transport and storage.
I'm still reading the full report, but 2050 is slow compared to what's gonna happen once Biden gets inaugurated...
