Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

We're in uncertain macro territory. A large stock market decline is very possible, and we don't know how long it would last. Tesla is better positioned than many others to ride out a period of economic calamity and also expand its market, but TSLA could go down a little or a lot before things get better. I'm not saying this will happen. I'm reacting to the certainty some people seem to have that TSLA will continue to go up. I believe it will in the long run, but the short and medium term could be different.

I agree with this. But I'm less worried about an extended downturn with TSLA than any other high-flyer I've owned (and there have been a lot). IMO, Tesla is growing too fast to have an extended downturn that never seems to end. Of course, people these days seems more impatient than I am accustomed to. I'm not kidding, some get antsy after a month of no new highs, LOL! I'm more than willing to wait a year or a bit longer to make new highs. It's really no big deal unless you were planning to spend the money right away anyway. Because the growth it does display, during periods of high share price growth, more than make up for the stagnant periods.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Since we’re getting into Q1 and I’ve already seen a couple posts mention seasonality, I’d like to remind people that if it hadn’t been for COVID not letting Tesla deliver cars in the final 3 weeks in Q1 2020, they would have been very close to Q4 2019. They would have only had a very small dip from their strongest quarter to their weakest.

Point being, I think Tesla has hit price points where seasonality is not going to be a thing for them for a while.

 

[sub]

Tesla's delivery jump from 2020 to 2021 is going to appear bigger due to the covid shut down also.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

There once was a man called Dan, who ignored the poetry ban.

Oh wait.

See, that's the bit.
I didn't rhyme sh...
Damn, now you have doing it!

 

[Stone_Watcher]

I woke up to some extra cash in my account courtesy of ARKK's $2.04/share dividend. I didn't even know they paid dividends. Thanks Cathie!

I wonder what the Ex-Dividend date is. I purchased my shares on the 29th

Edit: I bought ARKG on the 28th and received their dividend. Womp womp

Final edit: I purchased on the 29th after an $8 fall from the 28th. I no longer care about the dividend

 

[Mo City]

Since we’re getting into Q1 and I’ve already seen a couple posts mention seasonality, I’d like to remind people that if it hadn’t been for COVID not letting Tesla deliver cars in the final 3 weeks in Q1 2020, the would have been very close to Q4 2019. They would have only had a very small dip from their strongest quarter to their weakest.

Point being, I think Tesla has hit price points where seasonality is not going to be a thing for them for a while.

We may see a similar thing happen Q1 2022 with MIG Model Y, although the shock surprise aspect is not repeatable.

 

[Artful Dodger]

she constantly reminded me how stupid I was.

Then the recovery happened and she once again urged me to sell it all.

Through it all I held fast, determined to stick to my plan which I still to this day feel is 100% justified.

Then I became a Teslanaire.

Then the split happened

Good for you! Do you miss her?

Cheers!

 

[Fobble]

We're in uncertain macro territory. A large stock market decline is very possible, and we don't know how long it would last.

I agree the market can always decline, especially after such strong 2020, but I don't see what you said about 2021 as being in "uncertain macro territory". Could you elaborate?

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Happy New Year's to all!

My wife just realized we have _.6 million dollars in TSLA stock and now wants to sell a bunch.

What do I do?!

.6 million? So 600,000? If it’s $6 million I would agree with her. After all it’s not good to get too rich. Seems like the overall conservative estimate is that TSLA should easily double on average every year for at least the next ten years. Do you really want to be worth over $12 in a year or two?

 

[Highway2Heel]

I will never leave my wife...or this thread...there’s good juju in here...why take a chance??!!

 

[jhm]

TSLA Closing SP on Dec 31, 2019 was $418.33 (pre-split). Today's Close was $705.67 * 5 (pre-split).

That means TSLA's Share Price is +743% in 2020.

TSLA's increase in Market Cap is something else again, due to the increased number of shares:

$674.52B* / $75.40B = +795% TSLA Mkt Cap gain in 2020

View attachment 623082

Cheers!

*Est'd Mkt Cap including ~8M shares issued on Dec 11, 2020

Thanks for checking this. I read the 680% figure off of a chart from Nasdaq.com and am not sure why it would be so far off. Now looking at the same source a day later, it reads 720%. So this graphical source seems unreliable.

Looking rather at the historical prices (post-split), Nasdaq is reporting a close of $705.67 on12/31/2020 and $83.666 on 12/31/2019. This is indeed a gain of 743.44%.

 

[Fobble]

Good for you! Do you miss her?

Cheers!

That's exactly what in my mind when I got to that line, before finishing the entire post: "I became Teslanaire, then I split with her"

 

[Mike Ambler]

After-action Report: Thu, Dec 31, 2020: (Full Year's Trading)

Traded: $4,911,869,774,752.18 ($4.91 Trillion)​

So, how long before that's the market cap? (sorry, couldn't resist).​

Seriously though, like many of the mid-termers, I too hit the first mile$tone yesterday, if only for a couple of hours.

My most humble thanks to the smart, passionate and humorous folk here. You were all needed to transform the Tesla story for me, from a fundamental key to the modern lifestyle / planetary destruction conundrum (I've been following since the 2003 "watch this space" words on endless-sphere.com), to TSLA and the personal life changing opportunity that is this stock.

Again, Thanks and Buon 2021!

 

[Stone_Watcher]

I agree the market can always decline, especially after such strong 2020, but I am don't see what you said about 2021 as being in "uncertain macro territory". Could you elaborate?

Getting very off topic but it is the weekend.

In the United States the Federal Reserve has shown they are committed to printing as much money as needed to keep things going until at least 2023. This is my understanding of the last couple FOMC meetings. I think we will see higher highs across the major indexes for the next several years.

This is not investment advice.

 

[DutchDriver]

Lots of posts on Twitter now about how model Y has reached over 100k orders in a few hours.

NIO stockprice might take a hit on Monday.

I don't see NIO that much affected. With the battery lease option (BAAS) , the purchase price of a EC6 ( $46 k)is lower than the Y. And with that lower price the buyer get still an aditional incentive.
Second, the EC6 is more luxurious than the Y.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I agree the market can always decline, especially after such strong 2020, but I don't see what you said about 2021 as being in "uncertain macro territory". Could you elaborate?

If anything, I see 2021 as a very strong year due to stimulus and zero rates combined with a sharp economic recovery from the vaccines becoming widely available. I see the macro market rallying into 2022, at which point it's going to get overheated and then we're going to have a pretty sizable correction

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thanks for checking this. I read the 680% figure off of a chart from Nasdaq.com and am not sure why it would be so far off. Now looking at the same source a day later, it reads 720%. So this graphical source seems unreliable.

Looking rather at the historical prices (post-split), Nasdaq is reporting a close of $705.67 on12/31/2020 and $83.666 on 12/31/2019. This is indeed a gain of 743.44%.

720% is the gain from Jan 1st to Dec 31st, but that's not the YoY gain, since it neglects the daily gain which occurs on Jan 1st (which was considerable for TSLA in 2020)

Cheers!

 

[WVCS]

For those interested, I wrote an article that gives insights in relation to a German Greenpeace study why the VW agency Dealership Model right now makes every ID sold a lost business for Dealers. The disadvantage of the Dealership network of incumbents gets more and more obvious.

I received VW internal leaked and confidential documents from VW France that allow me to support the Greenpeace study with prove that showed why only 1 out of 25 dealers recommended the ID.3

Volkswagen Dealers Making 4.5% Margin Selling ID.4 vs. 14%+ For Fossil Fuel Vehicles — CleanTechnica Exclusive

Of course as usual a ton of haters and trolls try to go after me

My next article will include a confidential competitive strenghtweakness VW analysis that compares the ID.4 with the Model Y, Kona, iX3 a.o.

Feels strange to publish these confidential documents as VW may put me on their 'person of interest' list now or even decides to try to sue me.

Time will tell

I trust your intentions are good (absent evidence to the contrary) and that you spend energy to research and write these articles because you want the world to transition to sustainable energy as rapidly as possible.

With due respect to you, I question however, the method you have chosen in this article.

The article uses the words “lie” and “cheat” multiple times while referring to Volkswagen. Once one party has branded (explicitly or otherwise) the second party as lying or cheating, the second party is no longer available for influence. A line has been drawn with the two parties on either side of it doing battle with each other rather than working together to solve a problem.

As people who want a world with sustainable energy, I believe we have to show more empathy and a generosity of spirit when interacting with third parties who are not bought in to the concept. For instance, I don’t know how committed I will be to the concept of sustainable energy if I was a Volkswagen employee who is dependent on each paycheck to put a roof over my family and feed my children. Volkswagen (and other ICE manufacturers) have this real and practical issue to deal with regardless of how many other fake / imagined issues they might raise as explanation for slow transition to sustainable energy.

My first point above - an inclusive and empathetic approach to highlighting issues - is 90% of the weight of my comment, such weight as it might have. I wish to add though that I find the article incomplete. It does not provide the data on how the lower dealer incentives affected the sale of electric vehicles. If Volkswagen had undertaken the direct marketing expenses (bypassing the dealer) to create enough demand for all their electric vehicle production, then they are production constrained. The dealer’s role is mere fulfillment of pre-existing demand in which case the dealer incentive will and should justifiably be lower. In fact, this could be an encouraging sign that Volkswagen is incrementally making the dealer irrelevant and increasing direct interaction with the customer.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, how long before that's the market cap?

3 yrs, 9 mths (given a 50% CAGR), or about Oct 1st, 2024 for TSLA to reach $4.91T Mkt Cap.

But this is not the end.

 

[Singuy]

If anything, I see 2021 as a very strong year due to stimulus and zero rates combined with a sharp economic recovery from the vaccines becoming widely available. I see the macro market rallying into 2022, at which point it's going to get overheated and then we're going to have a pretty sizable correction

Correction will come when bond yields are not in the shitter, which will take awhile.