Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

So, Tesla went from 367,500 vehicles delivered to 499,550 between 2019 to 2020. ~36% increase. In a pandemic and global lockdown.

A 36% increase in 2021 would mean 679,388 deliveries FYI.

With 1 factory at full capacity and another ramping. 2021 should see 2 factories at capacity and 2 ramping. 2022 will be 4 factories at capacity and 1+ building/ramping.

 

[Pezpunk]

With 1 factory at full capacity and another ramping. 2021 should see 2 factories at capacity and 2 ramping. 2022 will be 4 factories at capacity and 1+ building/ramping.

don't forget the factory at "full capacity" was shut down for 25% of this year, though.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Elecfek just had to get 'missing' into their headline.

 

[ggr]

Just redid the CAGR-since-IPO calculation for TSLA . It's now 64.2%

Given CAGR: 64.2%
Double check: 1.64217^10.5 = 182.76 X since IPO
(10.5 years from Jul 2, 2010 to Dec 31, 2020)​

Lol, Elon was right again! Things HAVE sped up since September...

Cheers!

Well, something's wrong in your calculation. IPO price was $17 (pre), we're over 200x IPO now.

 

[bkp_duke]

don't forget the factory at "full capacity" was shut down for 25% of this year, though.

Late March through early May is not 25% of the year. Approximately 7 weeks downtime (~13.5%)

Tesla Operational Update | Tesla Investor Relations
Getting Back to Work
Tesla plant to restart production after coronavirus shutdown

 

[Pezpunk]

Late March through early May is not 25% of the year. Approximately 7 weeks downtime (~13.5%)

Tesla Operational Update | Tesla Investor Relations
Getting Back to Work
Tesla plant to restart production after coronavirus shutdown

fine 14% of the year, whatever. point still applies.

 

[Singuy]

fine 14% of the year, whatever. point still applies.

Could have been 25% if Elon didn't fight for the reopen.

 

[woodisgood]

Stock may offer a brief buying opportunity but MIC Y demand is big news that may balance it out. Also think there may be another announcement/news this week.

Monday morning will be an interesting first look at how inclusion with 15% of the float now locked up affects “buying opportunities.”

 

[jerry33]

I find it a bit odd that they announced this early if they were so close to 500k deliveries... if they had waited to sunday night or even monday morning, wouldn't it have been possible to get a more finalized number that would actually break 500k?

I almost want to say that they intentionally wanted to announce below 500k for whatever reason....

Then all weekend we would have heard, "Tesla is afraid to publish numbers because they missed the goal badly". Those who spin negatively are going to spin negatively.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Given the runup over the last year, It would be interesting to hear from others on the board how the gearing on their Tesla exposure has changed.

• For those trading options - Do you hold more or less compared to Dec-19?
• For those using leverage - have you increased or decreased it?

I hold my position via CFDs - in June 19 I had "core" positions which had c.80% equity backing and my "trading" positions used about 80% debt at entry (although that reduced as the price increased). I'm virtually out of all my trading positions now and my riskiest positions only have around 25% leverage. At this stage I'm more fearful of a pullback and losing my hard one positions than I am greedy around missing out on leveraged upside.

Of course that will change as Tesla continues to execute - or if I think there is a short term catalyst for the stock to pop.

I'm more aggressive now because Tesla has cleared the great filters (a Fermi Paradox reference). Basically, survival is no longer in question, now it's just a matter of execution, how long FSD will take, is India a viable market, stuff like that. I don't do options but I am much more heavily committed with shares and would even consider margin. Especially if I can leverage IB margin rates with my broker to get significantly lower rates.

 

[JusRelax]

Then all weekend we would have heard, "Tesla is afraid to publish numbers because they missed the goal badly". Those who spin negatively are going to spin negatively.

I don't know about that, I believe that most were expecting the announcement on Sunday anyway. Granted, if they waited to announce till Monday after hours, I agree with you that it would definitely be spun negatively.

 

[elasalle]

Looks like Headline frenzy of a miss is for the algo's. The fine print is that delivery miss is < 1 %.
EM mentioned 500K for 2020 like 4-5 years ago.

BTFD!! (Buy The DIP)

 

[Navin]

Believe Elon’s msging here with slight miss to 500k is a way to keep both the mania away from the stock and, more importantly, to keep employees hungry and not get complacent. They didn’t “hit” the goal so will keep working hard like Elon. Brilliant.

 

[ggr]

I significantly deleveraged last week. While I still think TSLA will continue to go up, I think trading will be a bit more volatile for a while. I basically converted all options that couldn't become long term capital gains into stock, 50% TSLA, and the other 50% split between the various ARK funds. That was about 15% of my total TSLA-related investment. As the LEAPS become long term, I will be selling just enough to exercise the rest, which will actually lower my cost basis in many cases. That's my plan, anyway.

 

[Chocochip]

I find it a bit odd that they announced this early if they were so close to 500k deliveries... if they had waited to sunday night or even monday morning, wouldn't it have been possible to get a more finalized number that would actually break 500k?

I almost want to say that they intentionally wanted to announce below 500k for whatever reason....

Give investors time to chill until Monday? Announcing a “miss” (if you want to call this slimmest-of-margins a miss on guidance) just before market open on Monday would have guaranteed a severe drop.

 

[Runarbt]

Despite being 99% concentrated in TSLA I’ve been getting a bit of FOMO (greed) so I’ll happily buy a dip. I suspect there are many others like me.

I was hoping for a dip - and now, I think its pretty certain... but you never know with tsla. :-D

 

[Christine69420]

A fantastic achievement with factories in Shanghai and Fremont closing for Covid missing about two months of production in combined impact.

 

[2daMoon]

... and if the Earnings Report corrects the deliveries by +451 vehicles the guidance will then be 100% "correct" anyway, right?

Tossing this delivery number out there now to stabilize the SP in the long run is a good thing. Maybe?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Wasn't it five years ago that Elon predicted 500,000 deliveries in five years? Hats off to you, Elon, hats off.

 

[Chocochip]

With 1 factory at full capacity and another ramping. 2021 should see 2 factories at capacity and 2 ramping. 2022 will be 4 factories at capacity and 1+ building/ramping.

2021: Shanghai Model Y ramping, Berlin likely starting production, Texas maybe starting.
2022: Fremont, Shanghai at capacity, Berlin still ramping, Texas ramping and building more for most of the year. Possibly another factory announced this year might start construction.