Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVMeister]

I'm expecting some selling at Monday's open, so I have some buys placed.

First the obvious - seems like a long time since Tesla missed any Factory target that I can recall in 2020. No 2-ways, it's a miss.

Next, dropping the price on Y MIC clearly helps with demand, but was there a problem with demand? Or is the China factory about to ramp faster than any in history with EU and India channels waiting? Meanwhile, this also affects Y margins and both can be viewed as negatives with the competition narrative coming into play here. True, China competitor stores are empty as pictured earlier, but there's a new Tesla model in the mall so where would you hang out?

I'd also add that my service appt is a full 2-weeks out just for some misc cleanup on our new Dec Y delivery. All minor, but all potential signs of rushed work. By comparison, I normally get 3-4 days out on service appts so I'm assuming that quality was affected more broadly at the close of the year, not surprising at all (for us in-the-know).

If it drops I will accumulate more shares on this sale as I'm a bit lighter weight today and this also could be a quick bounce.

Sounds to me like you worry too much. It will follow the trend of the German premarket, strong green.

(Alright, I just wanted to balance things out here. You might end up being right. Drop then quick rebound seems plausible ).

 

[chrsk]

I'm expecting some selling at Monday's open, so I have some buys placed.

First the obvious - seems like a long time since Tesla missed any Factory target that I can recall in 2020. No 2-ways, it's a miss.

Next, dropping the price on Y MIC clearly helps with demand, but was there a problem with demand? Or is the China factory about to ramp faster than any in history with EU and India channels waiting? Meanwhile, this also affects Y margins and both can be viewed as negatives with the competition narrative coming into play here. True, China competitor stores are empty as pictured earlier, but there's a new Tesla model in the mall so where would you hang out?

I'd also add that my service appt is a full 2-weeks out just for some misc cleanup on our new Dec Y delivery. All minor, but all potential signs of rushed work. By comparison, I normally get 3-4 days out on service appts so I'm assuming that quality was affected more broadly at the close of the year, not surprising at all (for us in-the-know).

If it drops I will accumulate more shares on this sale as I'm a bit lighter weight today and this also could be a quick bounce.

Why should they not have dropped the price on the Model Y? It's now in line with the US price? It was clearly priced high as it could not yet be delivered(It's priced higher in Norway as well, I expect that to drop when it finally gets available). A

 

[mulder1231]

I'm expecting some selling at Monday's open, so I have some buys placed.

First the obvious - seems like a long time since Tesla missed any Factory target that I can recall in 2020. No 2-ways, it's a miss.

Next, dropping the price on Y MIC clearly helps with demand, but was there a problem with demand? Or is the China factory about to ramp faster than any in history with EU and India channels waiting? Meanwhile, this also affects Y margins and both can be viewed as negatives with the competition narrative coming into play here. True, China competitor stores are empty as pictured earlier, but there's a new Tesla model in the mall so where would you hang out?

I'd also add that my service appt is a full 2-weeks out just for some misc cleanup on our new Dec Y delivery. All minor, but all potential signs of rushed work. By comparison, I normally get 3-4 days out on service appts so I'm assuming that quality was affected more broadly at the close of the year, not surprising at all (for us in-the-know).

If it drops I will accumulate more shares on this sale as I'm a bit lighter weight today and this also could be a quick bounce.

Model Y MIC is cheaper because it’s Made in China, duh. More efficient factory, cheaper labor, elimination of shipping cost from California, plus probably a whole bunch of other reasons.

 

[MC3OZ]

Is that right? Giga Nevada is supposed to be the largest factory, originally anyway, Giga New York isn't even a self-built factory, they took it over.

Job posting might be exaggerated.

Reddit link says current factory 0.1 sq km 0.4 sq km additional land.
GF Nevada is 0.18 sq km.

I could not find more information on how much land they have.

The real news is it looks like an expansion is being planned for GF Buffalo or nearby.

 

[Dutchie]

NEWS: JPMorgan raises $TSLA price target to $105 from $90.
https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1345965962240122882
Thats a significant increase of 16%. Only 671% to go.

Just wondering why these guys go through the trouble in releasing this BS. I mean these are high paid individuals who make up and it isn’t worth the paper (electrons) it is written on. Releasing these ridiculous targets is just damaging for a company. What do board of Directors of JP Morgan think when they see this?

 

[Todd Burch]

Just wondering why these guys go through the trouble in releasing this BS. I mean these are high paid individuals who make up and it isn’t wort the paper it is written on. Releasing these ridiculous targets is just damaging fo a company. What do board of Directors of JP Morgan think when they see this?

I’ll tell you what it’s NOT: Just like ol’ Gordy, it’s not to release an accurate honest prediction of where the share price is headed.

 

[mrdoubleb]

A lot can change until the NASDAQ opens, but it does not feel like a sell-off.

 

[Green Pete]

View attachment 624032

A lot can change until the NASDAQ opens, but it does not feel like a sell-off.

For all the “small miss” articles there’s also quite a bit of press about musk nailing it dead on from 2014. Gives the 20 mil a year by 2030 target a lot more credibility.

 

[saniflash]

so far so good

 

[mrdoubleb]

View attachment 624032

A lot can change until the NASDAQ opens, but it does not feel like a sell-off.

Update: we are now at 590 eur (724 usd).

 

[chrsk]

Did not last long, back at 720$.

Even though the volume is low it looks like this might be a good TSLA day

 

[Mike Smith]

- Canadians as of today can add $6000 to their Tax Free Savings Account (some for TSLA)
- Americans are getting stimulus cheques (some for TSLA)
- Model Y China pricing disaster for NIO, Li, and Xpeng. Same thing likely to happen in Europe with Berlin Model Y.
- Tesla beat analyst estimates, so earnings estimates have to go up
- Tesla met guidance for second year in a row, and obviously sandbagged, so more analysts will believe 2021 guidance
- Democrats looking much more likely to take senate (more stimulus cheques for TSLA and more macro stimulus and EV support)
- Many retail Bitcoin winners will diversify into TSLA

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

I’m with Rob on this one. Barely missing guidance on deliveries is outweighed by surprising upside on China MY orders.

I am hoping that we get a bit more info in the Q4 ER regarding production. Given the production figures for China in October/November it would seem that Fremont 3/Y production has not ramped to 10k/week yet. More potential upside for Q1

 

[MABMAB]

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Very good December delivery numbers for Nio
Xpeng, Li Auto & Nio all up decent percentages premarket

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Tesla up nearly 3%

 

[printf42]

$725 in pre market and no new posts for hours, where did everyone go? Your islands?

 

[UncaNed]

Converting calls into shares and somehow keeping the purchase date of the option for the resulting shares - so it counts as long term cap gains sooner if I want to sell the shares - Is that for real or not in a taxed account?

I saw it mentioned twice on this forum (can't find the posts) but neither my broker nor my accountant seems to think it's correct. Perhaps it's only if I exercise the LEAP and my broker wants to discourage that?

 

[Nocturnal]

That is so low, it's almost pointless to do any upgrade at all. I think we went up over $105 in a week once or twice.

It’s not pointless at all. These tiny “upgrades” are just designed to make the media talk about the low price target.

It’s pretty transparent FUD. They like releasing these on big days.

 

[woodisgood]

Thursday end of session saw a pretty steep pushdown probably trying to minimize the damage on $700 calls, which unexpectedly became ITM on that day.

I suspect the premarket activity is a result of that.