Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

This:


Doesn't really jibe with this:



Either you are worried about the call being executed, or you are happy about it. Which is it?

I'm curious about why you would sell a call so far out time wise, but yet so close strike wise. Is that because that is where you could get the amount of money you wanted/needed? Or do you really think that TSLA has topped out valuation wise?

Will you be as OK with it in two years when you have 100 shares removed from your account and replaced with $90k cash? (While TSLA might be valued at a conservative ~$1,600/share.) I guess it really depends on when you sold it and for how much...

And now you posted this:


$1200-$1300 in a year is a whole different story than the $900 in two years that you said you sold...

One can be a tad worried and ok at the same time. I was making a statement about the verticality of the move today so early in the year. You don't need to dissect it, there's really no point. Step down the caffeine intake and enjoy the enrichment!

 

[Singuy]

If FSD isn't priced in, and energy clearly isn't priced in.....I'm not really clear on why we're worth 2x all the other carmakers combined. An exaggeration perhaps, but we're on our way. There's not really a lot of money to be made selling cars.

And FSD, as amazing as it's going to be, will likely have the same problem Tesla is running into with megapacks in Australia. It solved grid balancing so well, that the entities who used to pay gas peakers millions to do the job are balking at paying for servicing a problem that no longer exists. People here seem to overlay FSD on today's world, but the 2025 world will be quite different.

Regardless, that's my logic for being ok with a 2021 share sale at $1200/$1300. Valuation IMO will still be based on years out, but TSLA will soon be measured as something more than a pure growth play.

I'm entirely on board with "TSLA is going to the moon", I just think a long pause will be in order if we approach $1T any time soon. Hoping to sell none of my share and hold out for $10T in 2035, but OK if I can't hold onto them all. Hell, where do you think the cash will come from to short the entire fossil industry over the next 2-3 years?

Hey some FSD revenue is priced in, the part that generates revenue. But none of that robotaxi revenue is priced in.

The valuation comes from margins. If GM continue to increase to 30%+ then you don't need the other stuff because these are high ticket items in the beginning phase of growth. Tesla can potentially double their revenue by this time next year while increasing gm due to economy of scale and higher FSD take rate+recognition. Before you know it they will be generating 30 billion/quarter with GM at 35% in 2 years time (from auto only). Apple is a 2.2 trillion dollar company that also sells hardware at 35% gm and makes 26 billion a quarter from such sales. It's 44% of Apple's total revenue...so the other revenue at 60% margins service revenue gives them the other 1.5 T valuation if we count their cell phone revenue being worth 700 billion. All of a sudden Tesla is not that overvalued.

You need to look at other sectors(and stop looking at auto makers) to compare their valuation/revenue/margins. Automakers make trash margins therefore they get trash valuation.

 

[capster]

It makes total sense that snakes and lizards want global warming to continue. They’re cold blooded and thrive in warm climates. I wouldn’t be surprised if big oil and big reptile are working together to stop Tesla.

Revenge of the Dinosaurs

 

[2daMoon]

It makes total sense that snakes and lizards want global warming to continue. They’re cold blooded and thrive in warm climates. I wouldn’t be surprised if big oil and big reptile are working together to stop Tesla.

Hey, big reptiles are just small dinosaurs, right? They have a lot in common with big oil, being from the same geologic neighborhood and all.

 

[Singuy]

Hey, big reptiles are just small dinosaurs, right? They have a lot in common with big oil, being from the same geologic neighborhood and all.

Birds are small dinosaurs. Reptiles are totally different..perhaps closer related to most people's ex-spouses' than dinosaurs.

~~~Mod-edited instead of deleting outright~~~

 

[OrthoSurg]

You would sleep better with a DUMP in the after hours?

You must be short?

I will sleep well with the new Morgan Stanley $810 target price

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Hey some FSD revenue is priced in, the part that generates revenue. But none of that robotaxi revenue is priced in.

The valuation comes from margins. If GM continue to increase to 30%+ then you don't need the other stuff because these are high ticket items in the beginning phase of growth. Tesla can potentially double their revenue by this time next year while increasing gm due to economy of scale and higher FSD take rate+recognition. Before you know it they will be generating 30 billion/quarter with GM at 35% in 2 years time (from auto only). Apple is a 2.2 trillion dollar company that also sells hardware at 35% gm and makes 26 billion a quarter from such sales. It's 44% of Apple's total revenue...so the other revenue at 60% margins service revenue gives them the other 1.5 T valuation if we count their cell phone revenue being worth 700 billion. All of a sudden Tesla is not that overvalued.

You need to look at other sectors(and stop looking at auto makers) to compare their valuation/revenue/margins. Automakers make trash margins therefore they get trash valuation.

So much this. Margins are why I’m all in. Nobody has any idea yet, and Q4 earnings are going to give the first big clue to the clueless. Morgan Stanley just had an “aha” moment, so good for them. (And if that quoted phrase triggers you, relief below). They raised their few-months old target by 50%, ffs.

That being said, it’s hard to justify a $2T valuation right now, so don’t go buying June 1200 calls you hoodlums...but $1T this by the end of this year seems almost a certainty.

My $765 short calls are gonna be getting spicy tomorrow. I can’t wait

 

[Sudre]

I was thinking about Dojo and the Tesla with Lidar and had a thought to run by everyone. Dojo will be all about Vision since that's what Tesla works with. Well..... Vision, Radar and ultra sonics. One day the others are going to have to include vision IMO to ever catch up and get a true level 5 system. They will not have real world vision data to train with. If Tesla puts Lidar points into Dojo tagged onto Vision wouldn't this mean the others can use Tesla's vision data with Lidar reference points to train their systems? That might be a very lucrative thing to rent out.

 

[traxila]

A Democrat sweep is obviously hated by the market as the QQQs continue to slide.

But, will it mean even more rocket fuel for TSLA and the renewable economy stocks?

Could we see the market take a dive, while the likes of TSLA and SEDG continue to grind higher?

Would be somewhat unprecedented I think.

Perhaps wishful thinking, but works for me.

 

[Congo Line]

NY Times needle on GA Senate races pointing towards likelihood of split 50-50 Senate, meaning Biden would be able to pass climate legislation. Fingers crossed for Tesla becoming eligible for $7,500 tax credit again.

 

[Curt Renz]

Charging Forward - Dec 25:

 

[Knightshade]

I was thinking about Dojo and the Tesla with Lidar and had a thought to run by everyone. Dojo will be all about Vision since that's what Tesla works with. Well..... Vision, Radar and ultra sonics. One day the others are going to have to include vision IMO to ever catch up and get a true level 5 system. They will not have real world vision data to train with. If Tesla puts Lidar points into Dojo tagged onto Vision wouldn't this mean the others can use Tesla's vision data with Lidar reference points to train their systems? That might be a very lucrative thing to rent out.

You seem to be under the mistaken impression that folks working on this using lidar don't also use cameras and vision- that is not the case.

They use lidar in addition to radar and vision and ultrasonic because they think it's better/safer/easier.


Tesla believes it's utterly unneeded and only uses 3 out of the 4.

Their premise is if you actually solve vision lidar doesn't add any value.

They've also got a lot MORE vision data simply by having a vastly larger fleet driving vastly more miles.

But AFAIK everybody working on this uses cameras and vision.

NY Times needle on GA Senate races pointing towards likelihood of split 50-50 Senate, meaning Biden would be able to pass climate legislation. Fingers crossed for Tesla becoming eligible for $7,500 tax credit again.

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I think we should temper the expectation on what climate legislation gets passed...

I don't expect Joe Manchin, the "democratic" senator from WVa, and a dude who is gonna become a LOT more powerful if the GOP loses both GA seats as it's looking, is gonna vote for a green new deal or anything like it.... his state still makes >90% of their power from coal.

But yeah more EV tax credits, especially if biased toward US car makers, might be something he'd vote for... (IIRC he supported a thing about securing supply chain for the US ev industry a year or two back though I don't think the bill went anywhere)

 

[Fred42]

NY Times needle on GA Senate races pointing towards likelihood of split 50-50 Senate, meaning Biden would be able to pass climate legislation. Fingers crossed for Tesla becoming eligible for $7,500 tax credit again.

View attachment 624788

Reminder - Cloture to end Senate debate on legislation takes 60 votes, which the D's will not have. 50 votes plus Harris means Biden will be able to get approval for appointments and the D's can control the order of business and chair the committees and hold hearings, all valuable but not enough to pass legislation.

 

[Knightshade]

Reminder - Cloture to end Senate debate on legislation takes 60 votes, which the D's will not have. 50 votes plus Harris means Biden will be able to get approval for appointments and the D's can control the order of business and chair the committees and hold hearings, all valuable but not enough to pass legislation.

FWIW we should remember- they can pass with 50 votes via reconciliation.

Both bush tax cuts, the ACA, the Trump tax cuts, and more have all passed with less than 60 senate votes that way.... certainly not every single thing they wanna do, but usually at least one pretty major group of stuff each time (in theory they can do this 3 times a year, in practice it's not done more than once a year except 1997 when it was used twice)

The fact they need Manchin for that 50th vote still keeps some of the more... aggressive... climate change stuff off the table though.

 

[Mo City]

Warnock is clearly going to beat Loeffler. Ossoff will likely finish ahead of Perdue.

Dems' grip on the Senate will be tenuous and their most centrist members will have outsized influence.

EDIT: Of the Dems up for reelection in 2022, only Michael Bennet of Colorado would remotely qualify as a "moderate". He, along with Joe Manchin of W. Virginia, will have a big say in issues that affect Tesla. Most of us living in the U.S. should be familiar with Manchin's ties with the coal industry.

EDIT 2: Tech futures are getting body slammed right now (-1.44%).

 

[MartinAustin]

Folks here seem have come up with an excuse to discuss the U.S. Senate run-offs. Which have nothing to do with Tesla stock.

Tesla grew like crazy while Trump was president, and there is/was a divided government the whole time.

Tesla will continue growing like crazy even if Democrats rule the entire government. They don't need legislation of one type or another to grow like crazy... because they're going to do it anyway.

 

[UrsS]

Folks here seem have come up with an excuse to discuss the U.S. Senate run-offs. Which have nothing to do with Tesla stock.

Tesla grew like crazy while Trump was president, and there is/was a divided government the whole time.

Tesla will continue growing like crazy even if Democrats rule the entire government. They don't need legislation of one type or another to grow like crazy... because they're going to do it anyway.

True, but the Mission of Tesla (Accelerate Sustainable Energy) will be advanced considerably faster than under Moscow Mitch's rule. And that is why I hold TSLA and drive Teslas. All that money does me no good on an overheated planet.

 

[Singuy]

Folks here seem have come up with an excuse to discuss the U.S. Senate run-offs. Which have nothing to do with Tesla stock.

Tesla grew like crazy while Trump was president, and there is/was a divided government the whole time.

Tesla will continue growing like crazy even if Democrats rule the entire government. They don't need legislation of one type or another to grow like crazy... because they're going to do it anyway.

Yes but every long here just cares about the sp tomorrow. Tis what happens when daily sp takes away or give away a roaster when back in the days it was merely an expensive dinner.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

I just saw stars.

Climb down that mountain. You’re getting altitude sickness.

 

[ABCTG]

This problem is already well solved via the re-lamping of urban street lights from incandescent to LED bulbs. The difference in energy consumption means that an EVSE can provide the surplus power capacity already built into the lighting system to charge EVs on the street overnight. Billing is even built into the EVSE.

1,300 street lights converted to EV chargers in London

It sound good, but how do they ensure that an EV gets to park next to the street light, or what if the spot is already taken?
There is already an existing degree of anxiety involved in on street parking, now add to that not knowing if there will be an available charging parking spot.

I wouldn't want to be driving home with a low charge and having to deal with a crapshoot of whether or not there will be a charging spot available.

Maybe if every street parking spot had a charger it would work, but I think fast charging at convenient locations is the answer.