Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Compton]

I did actually explain why, but maybe this from the comment section of the article linked makes it a bit clearer:

“Seems the ‘let the fires burn’ philosophy is starting to catch up with them. I wager more delays, deferrals and then parts shortages, appointment re-schedules... the forums are already blowing up with service centre issues.”

Clearer yet?

Neroden - is it really you?

 

[Carl Raymond]

Wu Wa: 【Jan 14】"A batch of MIC MODEL3 with protective film appeared in the Shanghai factory. Obviously, these M3 will be exported to overseas markets and they are right-hand drive vehicles."

So, perhaps MiC LFP Models 3 headed to Oz? Or Japan? Maybe even the UK? Anybody hear anything from their local showroom?

Cheers!

I ordered a Model 3 last week after test driving in Brisbane. SR plus, nothing extra. I specifically asked where it would be made and when. The answer was “Fremont, right now, arriving off the boat in mid March”.

Amazing test drive BTW, my first time in a Tesla (though I once had a Leaf). It somehow gave me even more confidence in my TSLA investment. It becomes clear as day that ICE cars are doomed. I now know how to respond to Tesla naysayers - “Go, drive the car, then we’ll talk.”

 

[lklundin]

Just saw this on Twitter

https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1349473622981816322?s=20

View attachment 627297

While that is interesting, the big question is how much (if any) of ARKX will be SpaceX?
- everything else in it will effectively be a bet _against_ SpaceX...

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I haven't seen it mentioned, but a bunch of affected S and X vehicles have already had this fixed. My car is one of them (although in the UK, so not sure the recall affects me or not?). About a month ago I paid to have a totally new screen and MCU installed. REALLY glad I did, as the car feels brand new. I knew Tesla would be forced to upgrade that chip eventually, but that wouldn't give me the vastly faster performance and responsiveness, or the extra stuff, like more games, karaoke etc.
So count me as 1 of those recalls that won't have to happen. I'm sure there are others. The model S, especially back then, was being bought by people who could afford the upgrade, like me. A bunch of us didn't think twice about doing it.

 

[bkp_duke]

The primary way Tesla could have reduced their costs on this is by catching and acting on the problem more quickly (by switching to a board that had more durable memory chips a little sooner). But these things can take time. The total number is not that high in the bigger picture, recalls are a cost of doing business, the trick is to keep them a minor cost. And it does seem Tesla has done exactly that since the ramp of their first real mass production car, the Model 3. Despite having been in production a bit over 3 years, I believe there have been zero recalls. As production volumes are constantly increasing, this kind of relatively minor Model S recall is not really significant. You also haven't provided any compelling reason why you think it will cost more to do now (as a recall) than to have replaced them as a matter of course a couple of years ago when the new boards with better memory probably would have cost 20% more. Now they can buy them in volume and they have more service centers with which to perform the work.

Actually, Tesla has/had a VERY POOR software design (bug) that caused the bulk of the damage to these units.

Tesla was WAY over-logging things (not necessary things) on the storage partition on the Tegra board. Literally so much that it wore out the chips. I had this problem on one of my salvage Model S's, so Tesla would not touch the car and I had to go through a 3rd party for repair. On my other Model S, we stopped the excessive logging years ago, and the wear level indicators in the software are all fine, and the MCU has shown no indications of wear-related problems.

Tesla, in fact, did implement a change a couple years earlier, after the first units started failing, but by them the bulk of the damage to the MCUs in their fleet had already been done.

 

[Prunesquallor]

While that is interesting, the big question is how much (if any) of ARKX will be SpaceX?
- everything else in it will effectively be a bet _against_ SpaceX...

ARK has had space exploration as one of its investment strategies since 2018.

Space Exploration - ARK Invest

It has been buried in ARKK and ARKQ thus far (IRDM, SSYS, SPCE, etc).

 

[SO16]

The primary way Tesla could have reduced their costs on this is by catching and acting on the problem more quickly (by switching to a board that had more durable memory chips a little sooner). But these things can take time. The total number is not that high in the bigger picture, recalls are a cost of doing business, the trick is to keep them a minor cost. And it does seem Tesla has done exactly that since the ramp of their first real mass production car, the Model 3. Despite having been in production a bit over 3 years, I believe there have been zero recalls. As production volumes are constantly increasing, this kind of relatively minor Model S recall is not really significant. You also haven't provided any compelling reason why you think it will cost more to do now (as a recall) than to have replaced them as a matter of course a couple of years ago when the new boards with better memory probably would have cost 20% more. Now they can buy them in volume and they have more service centers with which to perform the work.

And in my case Tesla will actually make money when I upgrade to MCU2. So this recall is really not a huge deal. Certainly looks like a “buy the dip” situation.

 

[winfield100]

Part of me wonders if ARKX is a play to do away with 10% holding limitation of TSLA in the other ARK funds.

They can pull a Ron Baron and don't care if its 90% of the fund. LOL

@MXWing
--------snip--------
The Fund will not invest more than ==>>30%<== of its total assets in securities issued by a single company, fund or of short-term financial products of such company.

The Fund will not invest in more than 20% of the total number of outstanding shares issued by a single company or fund.
---------snip-------
https://sec.report/Document/0001104659-21-003837/


there is a nascent thread here on TMC
Starlink IPO <<<========

Also, if you go to ARK web site and investigate holdings of 5 ETF's you will notice that 3 of the funds have between 9.9% to 12% TSLA, so a reason they have to lighten up just a "tad bit"
So to me at least, the initiating documents of ARKX allow up to 30% of a single company.
and 2 of the ARK funds as mentioned above already have "space stuff" so......
"ya makes yer bets and ya takes yer chances"

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://twitter.com/cfasocietyindia/status/1349599144235524096?s=21

Hiro speaking at the India Investment Conference.

 

[Todesbuckler]

Turned 31 today and received a great birthday cake from my girlfriend.
I guess she has a pretty good feeling how TSLA developed in the last year.

Special thanks to everyone in this forum, as I wouldn't have invested most of my money into Tesla a few years ago without the insights and knowledge from you guys.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The email from Tesla about an extended warranty on the MCU1 eMMC went out after the NHTSA investigation
They could have acted well before
Tesla has a rep for poor service & this just adds fuel, costing them future sales

Check the comments section from S/X owners - it’s pretty ugly
NHTSA asks Tesla to recall Model S and Model X over MCU fiasco - Electrek

Does this guy have some kinda special troll pass that he’s not just getting banned? This thread is clogged enough with OT garbage, do we need 20 posts of trolls and responses?

 

[AlMc]

What’s everyone’s estimates on how much the stock will tank from the NHTSA recall?
Hopefully a lesson for Tesla to be proactive in future, as it would have cost less

Thank you for caring. Looking to buy the 'Fusion dip'.

 

[15Peter20]

Couldn't get my car to wake up via the app earlier. Anybody here know what effect that might have on the stock price?

 

[NooB_cat]

Couldn't get my car to wake up via the app earlier. Anybody here know what effect that might have on the stock price?

Seems to be sending it higher so far - cheers!

 

[Nocturnal]

The email from Tesla about an extended warranty on the MCU1 eMMC went out after the NHTSA investigation
They could have acted well before
Tesla has a rep for poor service & this just adds fuel, costing them future sales

Check the comments section from S/X owners - it’s pretty ugly
NHTSA asks Tesla to recall Model S and Model X over MCU fiasco - Electrek

I wouldn’t use Electrek comments from “real owners” as Toilet Paper.

Now, here are some genuine thoughts.
NHTSA asks Tesla to recall 158,000 vehicles for touchscreen failures

 

[Fobble]

Nope, already covered above. The screen isn't a problem. The repair currently costs ~$450 out of warranty. ($120 parts, $330 labor.) Figure that parts/labor are probably marked up 100%, so it would cost Tesla $225/car. Or ~$35M to replace them all. (Which would come out of the warranty reserves.)

And a significant portion have either already been replaced, upgraded to MCU2, or have been totaled. So it would be less expensive.

Another piece of related expense that was overlooked: transportation. When I replaced mine, Tesla gave me 10 days of Uber voucher. I did not use much due to the work from home. If I have to go to office every day, it could add significant cost. BTW, part and the replacement got done in about 1 week.

 

[Christine69420]

Flyover done with no obvious results. I've concluded a couple basic observations based on today in Fremont:

- Roadrunner is still being actively built. Top small building is being actively worked on, who knows what this is for?
- Parking lots of Roadrunner are still very busy and full of materials
- Factory delivery lot is full of 3 & Y's, very very few S & X can be seen. Perhaps last deliveries of these before refresh?
- Hardly any S & X visible inside the factory lot.
- Gigapresses are most likely operational by now, though we cannot observe operation during the flyover
- Interestingly there is more concrete mixing going on near the gigapresses.
- The large cranes near the presses are still present though I never see them operating...?

Enjoy

At 4:19 several Model S cars are loaded onto a truck.
At 11:10 there is a red Model S with weird tape on it.
At 13:45 a blue/black Model S with the tape

If my eyes got this right...with help from the Youtube comments

 

[Nocturnal]

This is such a great opportunity for TSLA. Vegas is a tourist hotspot. Until the end of 2021 the cars will have drivers and will just be exposing a metric fark ton of people to Tesla vehicles. After that we will start seeing them operate autonomously which will show people from all over the world how self driving Tesla's operate and will no doubt be all over the media.

Self-Driving Teslas Expected in Musk’s Boring Co Tunnels Next Year + Tesla Solar, TSLA Shorting - YouTube

At 4:19 several Model S cars are loaded onto a truck.
At 11:10 there is a red Model S with weird tape on it.
At 13:45 a blue Model S with the tape

If my eyes got this right...with help from the Youtube comments

That blue one at 13:45 definitely looks like it's different.

 

[Fobble]

What’s everyone’s estimates on how much the stock will tank from the NHTSA recall?
Hopefully a lesson for Tesla to be proactive in future, as it would have cost less

I think TSLA will drop 50% today. Ready to short?

 

[Unpilot]

Here is Chris Harvey, Head of Equity Strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, reasoning by analogy that Tesla is going the way of AOL. Must be one condescending damn fool to think many retail investors will swallow that one. Short much Wells are ya?

CNBC: Tesla will become the new AOL, Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey warns

Guess he couldn’t find someone more junior to embarrass themselves publicly. Maybe his job is on the line for other equally good ‘predictions.’

At least it’s a break from oh-my-but-the-panel-gaps and GM-is-going-to-open-a-can-of-EV-wupass-any-minute-now.

Wow that was painful to watch.
He is either paid to be wrong...or a fool.