Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - 14 minutes ago: Tesla takes delivery of massive 'Giga Press' at Gigafactory Texas - Electrek

Excerpts:

Tesla has taken delivery of a massive “Giga Press,” which is believed to be the world’s largest casting machine, at Gigafactory Texas...

Tesla has reportedly ordered many of those machines to deploy at new factories, and now we see one coming to Texas.

 

[Etna]

OK, so do we know what they are building next to the Fremont factory on @gabeincal 's latest video? Did Tesla buy extra land and is expanding the factory or is that another company?

This development is not related to Tesla.

The agreement is crucial to transform 111 acres of vacant land north of the Tesla Factory from what was once slated to become a Union Pacific rail yard to a vibrant, strategically urban center with 2,214 housing units and 1.4M square feet of Class A office/industrial space. The development also includes an elementary school, urban park, public plazas and the development of “Innovation Way”, an east-west street connecting the BART station area to Fremont Blvd., and the primary internal roadway for the development project. The master plan will create 4,100 new direct jobs and spur investment in the area. The master plan approval is a key milestone for Lennar’s purchase agreement with Union Pacific.

From Big Milestone in Warm Springs — Lennar’s Master Plan Approved | City of Fremont

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - half hour ago: Tesla’s 2021 sales goals is focus for car maker’s fourth-quarter earnings
Excerpt:

Tesla is expected to report fourth-quarter results after the bell on Wednesday, with all eyes on the Silicon Valley electric-car maker's sales goals for 2021.

On a call in October to discuss Tesla's third-quarter earnings, one analyst estimated 2021 sales between 840,000 to 1 million vehicles, and Chief Executive Elon Musk responded that it likely would be "in that vicinity," and that the analyst was "not far off."

 

[oldTAVguy]

About the part of "brand loyalty is a bit fickle", basically it says whoever bought an EV that's not a Tesla regrets deeply and will most likely "consider" Tesla next time.
Couldn't find the exact numbers but got some snippets from here:

I think the "900 points" bar is a typo though, since there is no car ranked above 800, Tesla models took all top ranks in premium segment with:

• Model S: 798
• Model 3: 790
• Model Y: 780
• Model X: 758

(even considering none-premium, only Kia Niro with 782 is close, others are all well below 750)

So to summarize the report:
Tesla owners satisfied, other EV owners regret, but none will go back to ICE.

May have been talking of the points given by an individual as compared to the average of all owners.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

So closing price of $840 +/- $0.10?

 

[Unpilot]

Not me...tell me your experiences?

Please don't.

 

[corduroy]

Looks like the Robinhood stimulus buying we were expecting will not be coming - they all bought GME instead.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Interesting problem for ARK:

ARK ETFs Might Be Too Popular for Their Own Good

This may have an unknown impact on Tesla, just starting to think about this. Any thoughts out there?

 

[Dare]

Isn't that what market makers are supposed to do? TSLA shares are freely available at these prices, go ahead and buy(or sell). If you recognize a daily 2% swing in a stock is reliably repeated in a certain window......isn't that a good thing?

I've been saying for years that we needed to create a TSLAMMD hedge fund that just traded this every day. We shoulda done it, by now we'd all be taking golden showers!

It’s reliable enough to win Friday evening fun money that’s for dang sure.

 

[2daMoon]

So closing price of $840 + $1.38?

FTFY

Halve that total price for the secret code to be revealed.

Apologies for the math quiz this late on a Friday.

 

[Singuy]

Looks like the Robinhood stimulus buying we were expected will not be coming - they all bought GME instead.

And nano dimensions. The 2 billion dollar company with last quarter's revenue of 450k..lol. (So all those people who craps on Tesla's P/S ratio, Nano Dimensions said Hold My Beer). And no it's not a pre revenue company. It's been around for years.

I told my friend who is an investor that my household made more than that with our salary+investments last year. lol

 

[Curt Renz]

So closing price of $840 +/- $0.10?

Could be. It is Friday, which implies weekly options expire. Trading volume is low, which makes manipulation easier. However, today's put option activity may be what could most interest the big option writers (mainly hedge funds and market makers) with the ability to manipulate share prices to protect the option premiums they have received. They may want to shut out the long string of Jan 22 put buyers at the $840 strike and below. But call option interest is also high at $840, so you may be right that the TSLA price could keep cruising near $840 during this hour.

 

[Singuy]

So closing price of $840 +/- $0.10?

I take 840 over the 1030am dip.

 

[NooB_cat]

Do we know how many shifts there are in Fremont, and how many days per week cars are produced? We could calculate a max production rate based on that, and based on that spend our weekend speculating for which model the castings are used. After all, we need some diversion till Wednesday.

Haha! You can see that at 4:30 in the video there are loads of castings stacked up ready to go, so doesn't look like the Giga-press is a production bottleneck.
There's maybe 100 or so stacked up there, but could be a mix between front/rear of course

 

[Singuy]

Do we know how many shifts there are in Fremont, and how many days per week cars are produced? We could calculate a max production rate based on that, and based on that spend our weekend speculating for which model the castings are used. After all, we need some diversion till Wednesday.

Someone on youtube comments did some napkin math. One person wrote

"About 170 seconds per casting, I think. So, theoretically about 500 per day per machine. Giga Berlin with 8 of these, assuming 4 for rear and 4 for front casting, that is 14,000 cars a week, or a run rate of 728,000 a year just for the Model Y in the European market."

And another commenter wrote

"My napkin math got 193 seconds or 448 per 24h day so we're in the same ballpark at least. Looks like Texas will have 6 of these. If that's 3 front, 3 rear. If they're all at the same speed... 500x3 = 1500 per day, 10,500 per week, 546k per year."

They agree that that's max run rate, but will most likely hit 80% of this number accounting for problems/downtime

 

[printf42]

Looks like the Robinhood stimulus buying we were expecting will not be coming - they all bought GME instead.

Good thing is many TSLAQ is getting killed in that trade, I do want to see them gone for good.

 

[15Peter20]

“ if you don’t like volatility, buy TSLA”: Elton Tusk.

 

[Electroman]

Someone on youtube comments did some napkin math. One person wrote

"About 170 seconds per casting, I think. So, theoretically about 500 per day per machine. Giga Berlin with 8 of these, assuming 4 for rear and 4 for front casting, that is 14,000 cars a week, or a run rate of 728,000 a year just for the Model Y in the European market."

And another commenter wrote

"My napkin math got 193 seconds or 448 per 24h day so we're in the same ballpark at least. Looks like Texas will have 6 of these. If that's 3 front, 3 rear. If they're all at the same speed... 500x3 = 1500 per day, 10,500 per week, 546k per year."

They agree that that's max run rate, but will most likely hit 80% of this number accounting for problems/downtime

Is there a video that shows the press in action?

 

[Tslynk67]

So closing price of $840 +/- $0.10?

Between $845 and $850 I'd say... slightly more puts than calls at $845 (or at least this was the case when this snapshot was taken)

TBH, if the MM's can't nail the landing on the drone-ship with volumes this low, then they're totally lost...

 

[Singuy]

Not Tesla related but we should all take a moment to look at what is going on with GME. We always complain about short raid or short manipulation. What is going on with GME is the opposite. Wallstreetbet is leading the charge by causing the short squeeze after noticing that it's one of the most shorted stock on the market. Squeeze was so relentless today that they halted trading.

We thought Tsla had the short burn of the century...lol well now there's exhibit B. Hopefully this teaches short sellers a lesson and think twice before praying on any companies in trouble.

(5) GME Thread: The Wreckoning : wallstreetbets (reddit.com)