Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Mod: edited at request of @CorneliusXX to warn readers that this post is incorrect. --ggr

Apparently VW are expected to sell around 800k EVs this year. That's broadly in line with Tesla's expectations (although the e-golf and e-up are far smaller vehicles). I'm a little surprised they could hit that sort of volume this year.

At an average of c.50KWh per vehicle that's around 40GWh of cells required - which is around what GF1 is expected to produce. I'm surprised VW has been able to secure that much supply.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hmm, that would also apply to («true») FSD with us sleeping in the back seat, so I guess we need to wait and see how good it really gets over the next few years...

Edit: And not to forget, all empty Robotaxies roaming about.

No, it's not the same issue. A consumer's time-limited right to refuse or return a damaged product is separate from the ongoing liability that a company faces for the performance and safety of it's product / fitness for purpose.

The issue for deliveries is 3rd party damage, and how to attribute responsibility. IMO unattended transport and delivery would be a legal quagmire for Tesla in the U.S.

There's only so much that can be done with photo inspection QA robots and sentry cam videos. People often suck / scams are common.

 

[JoRoMo]

No, it's not the same issue. A consumer's time-limited right to refuse or return a damaged product is separate from the ongoing liability that a company faces for the performance and safety of it's product / fitness for purpose.

The issue for deliveries is 3rd party damage, and how to attribute responsibility. IMO unattended transport and delivery would be a legal quagmire for Tesla in the U.S.

There's only so much that can be done with photo inspection QA robots and sentry cam videos. People often suck / scams are common.

Ah, right, you are addressing delivery disputes rather than accidents en-route, got it.

I would hope it could be possible in time though, savings in logistics would be significant (and probably defend and finance a certain degree of «lost disputes»).

Edit add: But then it could still ride to the closest shop, hence still solving the factory bottleneck?

 

[capster]

Just as the stock market likes to climb a 'wall of worry,' TSLA feeds off these hit pieces.

 

[Curt Renz]

Axios through Yahoo - Yesterday: Biden's electric vehicle push puts new focus on jobs

Excerpt:

President Biden's swift effort to re-establish stricter fuel efficiency mandates, along with his broader push toward vehicle electrification, is as much about creating new jobs as it is protecting the environment.

Why it matters: The U.S. lags far behind the rest of the world in electric vehicle adoption. Catching up will require big investments in EV production — including battery cell manufacturing and mining of raw materials — to avoid dependence on imports and foreign supply chains.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Great article, seems all of my friends/family still struggle with putting money in TSLA even after our Model Y purchase. I have shared our investment details for years with our friends and family to no avail. Now, after the price run up, all of them say “it is too late to invest”. I show them that we just purchased 149 more shares as a example of the faith that we have and they just smile with the same non-belief as before . This forum has helped make us more money on paper than we ever thought possible, and for that we are forever grateful .

What is "money on paper"? How is that distinguishable from "money"?

Giving investing advice to friends and family ends in grief and broken friendships far more often than in happiness.

 

[wtlloyd]

In my opinion, Fremont will be rebuilt in 2023 when Texas is making both Y and 3. The hit will be a much smaller drop in overall production. Tesla could start to build I'mless space and go faster making Fremont remain valid.

I too expect a major rebuild at Fremont

Ah, right, you are addressing delivery disputes rather than accidents en-route, got it.

I would hope it could be possible in time though, savings in logistics would be significant (and probably defend and finance a certain degree of «lost disputes»).

Edit add: But then it could still ride to the closest shop, hence still solving the factory bottleneck?

I see it more as a wear and tear issue. The car, firstly, would need to be exterior detailed before it is presented to the customer, who likely would not be thrilled to see an odometer with 500 or 1200 miles on it already. Devising a rail carrier that is rapid load/unload would seem a better option for any investment in time/money.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

The latest Dave Lee discussion is with Jason DeBolt, the guy who retired at 39 with 12 million in Tesla. You might have seen a few stories in media about him. Turns out there is a lot more to the story. Including margin calls you would not want to experience and living in his car for six months.

Jason actually gave Dave his trading history and they go through when and at what prices he bought.

I think a lot of the long timers here can relate very well to his story and even me as a relative newcomer could recognize many of his feelings and thoughts from the last couple of years.

Don't think I've ever listened to a podcast/youtube that is almost two hours long but well worth it if you can find the time.

 

[Singuy]

Apparently VW are expected to sell around 800k EVs this year. That's broadly in line with Tesla's expectations (although the e-golf and e-up are far smaller vehicles). I'm a little surprised they could hit that sort of volume this year.
View attachment 630037

At an average of c.50KWh per vehicle that's around 40GWh of cells required - which is around what GF1 is expected to produce. I'm surprised VW has been able to secure that much supply.

You mean Timm Schulze-Melander, an auto-industry specialist at Redburn, He estimates the group will ship 800,000 fully electric cars to customers, up from 231,000 last year.

Vw never said such thing, or at least not from your link.

 

[MABMAB]

The latest Dave Lee discussion is with Jason DeBolt, the guy who retired at 39 with 12 million in Tesla. You might have seen a few stories in media about him. Turns out there is a lot more to the story. Including margin calls you would not want to experience and living in his car for six months.

Jason actually gave Dave his trading history and they go through when and at what prices he bought.

I think a lot of the long timers here can relate very well to his story and even me as a relative newcomer could recognize many of his feelings and thoughts from the last couple of years.

Don't think I've ever listened to a podcast/youtube that is almost two hours long but well worth it if you can find the time.

I dont want to learn from people that lived in their cars.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I dont want to learn from people that lived in their cars.

Actually it was in a Google parking lot while working there. Not as bad as it sounds. More like glamping. But the story shows his dedication to get Tesla shares instead of paying rent.

 

[st_lopes]

You mean Timm Schulze-Melander, an auto-industry specialist at Redburn, He estimates the group will ship 800,000 fully electric cars to customers, up from 231,000 last year.

Vw never said such thing, or at least not from your link.

Also can’t seem to find their actual posted results anywhere...

 

[JoRoMo]

I too expect a major rebuild at Fremont


I see it more as a wear and tear issue. The car, firstly, would need to be exterior detailed before it is presented to the customer, who likely would not be thrilled to see an odometer with 500 or 1200 miles on it already. Devising a rail carrier that is rapid load/unload would seem a better option for any investment in time/money.

You could opt in, for the steal price of $1.990 or so you get a pristine car delivered on a truck from factory, <50 miles, but the base case without additional cost is with the distance factory-to-shop on the odometer. It’s going to go much further soon anyway, so when you think of it, does it really make much difference?

 

[mrdoubleb]

Apparently VW are expected to sell around 800k EVs this year. That's broadly in line with Tesla's expectations (although the e-golf and e-up are far smaller vehicles). I'm a little surprised they could hit that sort of volume this year.
View attachment 630037

At an average of c.50KWh per vehicle that's around 40GWh of cells required - which is around what GF1 is expected to produce. I'm surprised VW has been able to secure that much supply.

So, that is once again a nice piece of analysis. I mean, you know, apart from the fact that:

1. According to VW themselves, in 2020 they have only delivered 134.000 BEV, the rest of the 212.000 was hybrids. Oh yeah, BTW, they didn't sell 231k "electrified cars", only 212k, according to their own press release.
2. E-up is gone, e-Golf is gone. What we have now are the ID.3 and the ID.4., the latter which is on hold right now because yet another round of SW issues with the patch that was supposed to fix the original problems that have plagued the ID.3 and delayed the ID.4 in the first place.
   • The original plan was to sell 100k ID.3 in the first year of production (2020). According to their official release, they ended up with 56.500 deliveries.
   • According to their head of sales they plan to sell 500k ID.4 until 2025 as in altogether, in total!

Now mind you, they may sell 800k "electrified" cars in 2021 as they may have to really push their hybrids to meet the emission quotas. But let's not pretend that's the same thing.

UPDATE: updated with official numbers as their head of sales quoted some outdated figures on ID.3 sales in the recent German interview.

 

[EVMeister]

Does the distinction not need to be made between VW and the VW Group?

 

[geometro]

I dont want to learn from people that lived in their cars.

What about those that have slept on factory floors?

 

[phantasms]

More free advertising. 100k world record attempt today. My man missed it by 13 seconds. Could you imagine?!?

 

[mrdoubleb]

Does the distinction not need to be made between VW and the VW Group?

Good point, yes.

For VW Group you would need to add in the BEVs like:

• The Porsche Taycan
• The Skoda and Seat ID.3 and ID.4 clones and variants
• And if you are talking "electrified", you should add in all Porsche, Skoda and Seat hybrids. Not sure if Bentley, Lambo and Bugatti sell any hybrids but that would be a low number anyway.

But, the problem is, all of the VW Group's electrified cars face the same battery supply limitations. Normally they have certain quotas per country on how many cars they can deliver. Last year, e.g. my country got a quota of only 80 (!) ID.3 1st editions and about 2x200 of the small supermini VW e-up/Skoda Citigo (which are now discontinued). While Hungary is a small country and small market, our new car sales are ~150k each year, so getting 80 or a few hundred as a limit is ridiculous, even for us.

 

[hobbes]

Don´t know if this was posted, probably not going to be popular here...

Newsom wants to erase most state funding for a popular rebate program for new-car buyers, money that has overwhelmingly gone to drivers with annual incomes above $100,000.

Instead, he’s asking lawmakers to spend big in two other areas: building a large network of vehicle charging and refueling stations, and increasing subsidies to help lower-income buyers afford the higher price tag of electric models.

Newsom's $1.5 billion plan for electric cars shifts rebate money to equity programs

 

[JRP3]

Don´t know if this was posted, probably not going to be popular here...

To me it was inevitable.