I'm impressed. What did you multiply 0% with to get to $4200 share price.
Nah, not that sophisticated. I am not classically trained in finance, valuation, or the markets. What this represented was my attempt to justify TSLA valuation based upon the TM/GM factory they had purchased. I spell it wrong at the time, but in the text of the discussion at the time I tried to figure on a future market cap if the factory produced as much as other owners had. It would have been up to 1% of world production. I then used comparable market caps and percent of market share to come up with a valuation. At the time, it was not a very bullish argument. I do not recall getting any real pro or con analysis of my methods, just pushback from the internet peanut galleries!
What I next did in Nov 2012 was look forward to a bull case of TSLA capturing 25% of world sales, 25% profit, p/e 15, and came up with share price of $41,190.
Later in November 2012 I tempered my view, I think by Musk or TSLA statements of expecting 10% profit per mass market car. I assumed 10% of world market, $15 p/e. I ended up with thinking TSLA could be worth $3995 per share.
All of the above is online, in public but not likely easy to see or find. I am Joe Q Public, at home retail trader. No marketing buzz, not much of a utube channel, not selling anything, not earning money from TSLA hype, TSLAQ. Not sensational or emotional. I just wanted to materially change my life.
This was pre FSD, no solar, no energy. Just cars.
I never slept in my car. I worked hard to find a great growth company, great leadership, great market potential, great business plan. It was a tough slog, little to no support from market participants, internet forums, finance or investing types. It felt like I was all alone. Without any support or training, I was able to do some back of napkin analysis and come up with reasonable future values. Very little of my portfolio performance came from options.