Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[OrthoSurg]

Okay, I listened to it. The whole thing. Pretty useless in my opinion. Dave seems to be desperately searching for some kind of magic that determines who gets rich on TSLA and who doesn't. But it isn't there to be found in individuals or anecdotes. He keeps asking: schooling? job? life experience? I'm surprised he didn't ask whether the guy's sex life was a factor. And, of course, Jason basically said he went with his gut and just knew Tesla had to succeed because the product was awesome. Just like many of the people here, past and present. And some get lucky and get rich, and some don't. And the fields of destitution are littered with those who were impressed by great products and put everything they had into businesses that went bust.

Jason's a guy who got excited about Tesla and put everything into it. He got unlucky in that it didn't go up when it should have, but was pretty much flat for years. He got lucky in that he stuck it out and was there for the 2020 boom in TSLA. He especially got lucky that the great product was being made by what's turning out to be a great business. There's really nothing to be learned from that. There are no doubt dozens of Jasons just at Google who did more or less the same thing and made little or nothing or lost their shirts. If Dave keeps at his search for a few decades, he'll discover it's all survivorship bias. That is if he interviews the other guys, the ones who lost, and discovers they give the same answers.

Me, I've lost a ton of money on TSLA over the years. And I've made a ton of money. Right now, things are very positive. But a year ago, things were very negative. I don't think I'm any different now, nor did I change anything significant about how I was betting on TSLA, nor is Tesla particularly different. All that's really different is that Tesla's last decade of hard work is turning it into an overnight success.

If Dave wants to find magic, he should seek out the people who got into TSLA last January or April. They're the ones who got the most bang for the buck out of Tesla's overnight success. And then he should watch for when they get out. Because there's absolutely no doubt from listening to Jason, that if TSLA goes down the tubes he'll go down with it.

Edit: I should note that I always find Dave's podcasts to be a waste of my time. He's clearly talking to a different audience. I most recently listened to him interview Rob Maurer and it was useless compared to any of Rob's podcasts.

Even Rob Mauer didn’t have a Tesla at the time he purchased his TSLA stock. Owning a Tesla is not a commons denominator. What made me shift toward buying TSLA and a Tesla was reading Ashlee Vance book on Musk and understanding he was the most well round up engineer of our current time. If you want to risk it all, as well risk it all on the best CEO engineer alive with the most compelling products. Trying to find anything similar between Teslanaires is a waste of time. Thanks for watching and summarizing it

 

[lklundin]

CNBC is my go to for displaying the real time Tesl share price, even when the browser is minimized in Windows

I like Yahoo, not only do the real-time quotes seem reliable and correct, but one also gets a view of all the outdated news and non-sensical analysis that normal people trade on.

LOL

 

[juanmedina]

Yeah. Their second favorite BB (Blackberry) is up 34% premarket, and they don't even have a short problem.

It's very clear that organized, and I say that in the looooosest way possible, retail investors can move companies in the low billions of valuation.

Think about it. If only 25% of those 2 million people put in $1000 each, and many do much more. That's $500 million. If a $2 billion company have a 50% float that's gonna be disruptive for sure.

And Nokia after that one

 

[mrdoubleb]

Based on what we have seen I think the refresh of model s/x will disappoint the marked. The changes will be to little, and so on.

I also don’t think Tesla will guide for 1 million, but it might be their internal goal.

A really good result might push it up, but in total I’m not surprised if we se a drop in the stock this week.

I agree in that I would also like to see a more significant exterior update. Something like new (and better!) headlights and taillights and some visible styling changes would go a long way to make people feel like this is a new car. I always feel stupid when second guessing Elon's strategy - after all he is the richest person in the world on his own right, while I am just a screen name commenting on the internet - but I often feel like he is underestimating human psychology.

So I am hoping what we have seen so far are just technology test mules and we haven't seen the final design yet, but even if we have, there is still hoping the interior will get a more significant upgrade.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

It is not exactly a spreadsheet but it was my start of trying to figure this out. Stardate 8/2/2011

View attachment 630506

I'm impressed. What did you multiply 0% with to get to $4200 share price.

 

[winfield100]

Pre 2018 I would say investing in Tesla was mostly in Elon we trust. The model 3 ramp for lots of people determined if the stock was investable or not. Having gained access to a cheaper car also helps when it comes to product research vs anecdotal hearsay online. I think everyone got lucky when Tesla had logistics issues that was spun as demand issue by everyone. That was the best time to load up but of course many feared for Tesla's life due to cash burn and limited cash on hand.

@Singuy
Some of us became aware of “pre-Tesla” on august 2, 2006
FoxTrot by Bill Amend for August 02, 2006 | GoComics.com
and went searching for info
(Ya know, Lotus Elise conversions and such)
(Those are beautiful ?polychromatic? paint jobs)

 

[jeewee3000]

I agree in that I would also like to see a more significant exterior update. Something like new (and better!) headlights and taillights and some visible styling changes would go a long way to make people feel like this is a new car. I always feel stupid when second guessing Elon's strategy - after all he is the richest person in the world on his own right, while I am just a screen name commenting on the internet - but I often feel like he is underestimating human psychology.

So I am hoping what we have seen so far are just technology test mules and we haven't seen the final design yet, but even if we have, there is still hoping the interior will get a more significant upgrade.

Don't forget that the amount of people owning/having owned a Model S/X is tiny.

On TMC many argue in favor of a refresh to entice them to buy a new Model S/X.

For most people, any model S/X would suffice if they could afford it. I'm sure plenty of TSLA investors bought/will buy an S or X with part of their gains, and they won't be bored with the "old" aesthetics. As long as it's the newest one, FSD ready, etc.

I for one am also following the three step program:
1) increase wealth by holding TSLA since 2014
2) buy a Tesla vehicle
3) keep holding

I could buy many model Ss by now, but don't want to yet. I'm waiting for the "FSD achieved"-stock pop during 2021-2022.

As a matter of fact, I've never been inside a Tesla vehicle. But I've done enough research to know Tesla will dominate BEV's, energy and autonomy in the coming decade(s).

Five years ago I couldn't imagine I'd ever own a model S (the prettiest Tesla in my eyes), now I'm just thinking about which one I'll be getting. #firstworldproblems, just like the whole refresh discussion IMO.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

And Nokia after that one

Blackberry is actually relevant for Tesla as making software for cars is what the case for buying them is based on. No, they are not making phones anymore. So if Tesla takes 20% market the other 80% is gonna need some software as well. Makes sense. No idea if BB will be able to get a sizeable share of that but apparently they have some.

 

[Singuy]

What's happening right now in GME (up 50% on Friday, up 43% now in premarket and at one point up 100% this morning) does not seem related to TSLA. It's a battle between Wallstreetbetters and hedge funds which are short GME, with the last ones being crushed. But this short squeeze may affect TSLA, as some of those funds are likely also short TSLA. If they lose billions on GME they may be forced to close their TSLA short positions too. It might even make shorting in general less popular, after the pain caused by TSLA's rise and now GME's rise.

What is scary is that their experiment worked, on multiple stocks all at once no less. This means the forum will be on the hunt for additional companies with massive shorts and will attack them in due time. Welcome to a massive wealth transfer from hedge funds to degenerates.

I can see Nikola tripling on something like this..lol.

Also now wsb is giving meme stocks protection as now they are the gate keepers. Glad tsla is a meme stock they love.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Don't forget that the amount of people owning/having owned a Model S/X is tiny.

On TMC many argue in favor of a refresh to entice them to buy a new Model S/X.

For most people, any model S/X would suffice if they could afford it. I'm sure plenty of TSLA investors bought/will buy an S or X with part of their gains, and they won't be bored with the "old" aesthetics. As long as it's the newest one, FSD ready, etc.

I for one am also following the three step program:
1) increase wealth by holding TSLA since 2014
2) buy a Tesla vehicle
3) keep holding

I could buy many model Ss by now, but don't want to yet. I'm waiting for the "FSD achieved"-stock pop during 2021-2022.

As a matter of fact, I've never been inside a Tesla vehicle. But I've done enough research to know Tesla will dominate BEV's, energy and autonomy in the coming decade(s).

Five years ago I couldn't imagine I'd ever own a model S (the prettiest Tesla in my eyes), now I'm just thinking about which one I'll be getting. #firstworldproblems, just like the whole refresh discussion IMO.

I agree with everything you say, but would argue if you look outside the community of us Tesla nerds and owners, invisible, under the skin refreshes go over people's heads. They see the same basic design (with a nose job) for 8 years which is an eternity in the auto world. Sure, newer, better specs are great but a little visual refresh could go a long way. Not to mention, Teslas are still lacking things like matrix led headlights which are already available in city mini cars in Europe (Opel Corsa, eg.) and are default in the S/X price range.

Anyway, don't want to take this thread more OT, but I would argue the S/X refresh or the lack thereof or, more importantly the perception of a "meh" update by the media and the public will be relevant to the TSLA on the short term.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone who made spreadsheets before buying their first Tesla shares raise your hand.

I created a TSLA spreadsheet before I invested. I sized my initial investment to produce $1M by the day I reach 65 (based on 50%* CAGR).

My CAGR is currently 161%, and my TSLA investment is more than 5 YEARS ahead of schedule. But I am just as long on TSLA (with higher confidence), and I won't be selling any TSLA shares early. Bring on the roaring '20s...

It's looking closer to $2.6M $4.1M (updated) by the time I reach retirement age. I may need to move...

Cheers!

#BUYNHOLD

*TSLA historic CAGR since IPO now sits at 62% but I went with Elon's prediction of 50% CAGR.

 

[Nocturnal]

What is scary is that their experiment worked, on multiple stocks all at once no less. This means the forum will be on the hunt for additional companies with massive shorts and will attack them in due time. Welcome to a massive wealth transfer from hedge funds to degenerates.

I can see Nikola tripling on something like this..lol.

Also now wsb is giving meme stocks protection as now they are the gate keepers. Glad tsla is a meme stock they love.

This is going to make short sellers really reconsider their business model IMO. I'm cheering the WSB folks on because we have some of the same enemies. Now imagine being Michael Burry knowing that you are shorting Tesla and aside from it's own merit as a company, you are just a few memes away from hordes of goofballs also swarming you.

 

[canoemore]

This Electrek article discusses a job posting at GF1 related to Semi production. I hope that we learn more about the production timeline for the Semi on the earnings call. I don't follow earnings models closely enough to know if significant Semi revenue is commonly incorporated, but if it isn't maybe guidance regarding Semi production targets would surprise to the upside.

 

[MartinAustin]

Right around two years ago when Raven was released, there was a similar draw-down in inventory, adjustments to the number of weeks for delivery, and a single-shift/stoppage at the factory (which bears attributed to lack of demand, of course, which probably wasn't 100% wrong but was a heavy-handed analysis since Q1 is the weakest quarter for all auto manufacturers)

After which we got the Raven update - different suspension and motor, and extra range and faster charging.

This time around I am being very cautious about my expectations. At the minimum we can expect a heat-pump and black trim. The heat pump will get even more EPA range. We know that Tesla will eventually switch to castings+structural battery and 4680 cells, different sheet metal, interior changes including single screen, but they can reserve those until later if they want and still stay comfortably ahead of the pack. If they are doing more right now, then great.

 

[Krugerrand]

Can you really claim that "skill was required" when sleeping through 2019 would have served perfectly well?

Yes. Doing nothing can be extremely hard. Go back and read the panic posts. People lined up like lemmings to jump off the cliff of reason. Indeed, go back and read the panic posts when Brexit was announced, when the infamous Q1 results were revealed, when funding was secured, when the SEC lawsuit was announced, when Tesla and Solar City were merging, when the first Model S caught fire, etc...

It is a skill to think clearly, to remain calm, to stick to one’s convictions when others are jumping up and down, waving their arms, and yelling fire at the top of their lungs.

Every person who held or bought more while the majority were calling ‘the sky is falling’ possesses a skill of varying degrees lacking by the rest.

 

[kbM3]

I created a TSLA spreadsheet before I invested. I sized my initial investment to produce $1M by the day I reach 65 (based on 50%* CAGR).

My CAGR is currently 161%, and my TSLA investment is more than 5 YEARS ahead of shedule. But I am just as long on TSLA (with higher confidence), and I won't be selling any TSLA shares early. Bring on the roaring '20s...

It's looking closer to $2.6M by the time I reach retirement age. I may need to move...

Cheers!

#BUYNHOLD

*TSLA historic CAGR since IPO now sits at 62% but I went with Elon's prediction of 50% CAGR.

I also did a spreadsheet with my initial investment. My investment thesis was based on Tesla’s Engineering chops and my reasoning that over time the TSLA share price would on average appreciate with Tesla’s 50% revenue growth.

Even being conservative and plugging in 30% growth, I couldn’t believe what that would mean to my net worth!

 

[NicoV]

Right around two years ago when Raven was released, there was a similar draw-down in inventory, adjustments to the number of weeks for delivery, and a single-shift/stoppage at the factory (which bears attributed to lack of demand, of course, which probably wasn't 100% wrong but was a heavy-handed analysis since Q1 is the weakest quarter for all auto manufacturers)

After which we got the Raven update - different suspension and motor, and extra range and faster charging.

This time around I am being very cautious about my expectations. At the minimum we can expect a heat-pump and black trim. The heat pump will get even more EPA range. We know that Tesla will eventually switch to castings+structural battery and 4680 cells, different sheet metal, interior changes including single screen, but they can reserve those until later if they want and still stay comfortably ahead of the pack. If they are doing more right now, then great.

Tesla wants to minimise the number of variants of a model. They already said plaid would have a structural battery pack. If the downtime over the last month is to support plaid, I expect the other variants of Model S and X to also have a structural battery pack very soon, if not, at the same time.

 

[MABMAB]

I'm impressed. What did you multiply 0% with to get to $4200 share price.

Nah, not that sophisticated. I am not classically trained in finance, valuation, or the markets. What this represented was my attempt to justify TSLA valuation based upon the TM/GM factory they had purchased. I spell it wrong at the time, but in the text of the discussion at the time I tried to figure on a future market cap if the factory produced as much as other owners had. It would have been up to 1% of world production. I then used comparable market caps and percent of market share to come up with a valuation. At the time, it was not a very bullish argument. I do not recall getting any real pro or con analysis of my methods, just pushback from the internet peanut galleries!

What I next did in Nov 2012 was look forward to a bull case of TSLA capturing 25% of world sales, 25% profit, p/e 15, and came up with share price of $41,190.

Later in November 2012 I tempered my view, I think by Musk or TSLA statements of expecting 10% profit per mass market car. I assumed 10% of world market, $15 p/e. I ended up with thinking TSLA could be worth $3995 per share.

All of the above is online, in public but not likely easy to see or find. I am Joe Q Public, at home retail trader. No marketing buzz, not much of a utube channel, not selling anything, not earning money from TSLA hype, TSLAQ. Not sensational or emotional. I just wanted to materially change my life.

This was pre FSD, no solar, no energy. Just cars.

I never slept in my car. I worked hard to find a great growth company, great leadership, great market potential, great business plan. It was a tough slog, little to no support from market participants, internet forums, finance or investing types. It felt like I was all alone. Without any support or training, I was able to do some back of napkin analysis and come up with reasonable future values. Very little of my portfolio performance came from options.

 

[corduroy]

Yeah. Their second favorite BB (Blackberry) is up 34% premarket, and they don't even have a short problem.

It's very clear that organized, and I say that in the looooosest way possible, retail investors can move companies in the low billions of valuation.

Think about it. If only 25% of those 2 million people put in $1000 each, and many do much more. That's $500 million. If a $2 billion company have a 50% float that's gonna be disruptive for sure.

2 million members, but probably 20x that amount who are lurkers, also throwing money into these stocks. That's a huge market moving force.

 

[Singuy]

This is going to make short sellers really reconsider their business model IMO. I'm cheering the WSB folks on because we have some of the same enemies. Now imagine being Michael Burry knowing that you are shorting Tesla and aside from it's own merit as a company, you are just a few memes away from hordes of goofballs also swarming you.

The guy made +489% on his "big short" and got a movie. Are we all getting a movie with 1600% gains since a year ago? We endured even more pain than he did as people laughed at his play.